Missouri: another 11 electoral votes down the tubes with Obama as our nominee.

[NJSecularist]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/missouri/toplines_missouri_general_election_may_6_2008

McCain: 45
Hillary: 43

McCain: 47
Obama: 41

Questions asked:

10* A proposal has been made to increase the capital gains tax from 15% to 28%. Do you favor or oppose increasing the capital gains tax to 28%?

17% Favor

67% Oppose

16% Not sure

11* If the capital gains tax is increased to 28%, will that help the economy or hurt the economy?

17% Help

58% Hurt

16% Neither

9% Not sure

Hillary is within 2 points of Missouri despite not being given a chance by the MSM to win the nomination. Yet, the "annointed nominee" by the MSM is losing an important bellweather state like Missouri by 6 points. It is clear, like West Virginia (5 electoral votes) and Arkansas (7 electoral votes), that we will throw away another state with a decent amount of electoral votes due to Obama's unelectability. Hillary is doing well in the rural areas of Missouri while Obama's support is mostly in St. Louis. Obama will be as lucky to do as good as Kerry in Missouri this year if he is the nominee. He may do even worse.

Also, for those who thought Texas and Georgia were going to be in play (yeah, some Obamites actually thought they'd be in play :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:), think again:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/election_2008_georgia_presidential_election

McCain: 53
Obama: 38

Rasmussen ranks the state as Safe Republican.

As for Texas:
http://research2000.us/

McCain: 52
Obama: 39

What is Obama's path to electoral victory?

[Thrill]

1. YAWN. Call me when the Campaign starts

[Avalux]

2. Keep trying!

We haven't even begun the GE yet. Your calculations mean nothing.

[grantcart]

23. keep trying? oh please no not more - thank god theres only 3 of these a day

[GarbagemanLB]

3. Will you be making these pointless posts after Hillary drops out?

There are 6 months till November, and it is stupidity of the highest degree to assume the polls will not or cannot change.

[thewiseguy]

7. No because he will be kicked off the forum

Pitty on me for cleaning my ignore box. :(

[Pawel K]

4. You still haven't jumped off that sinking ship?

[tridim]

5. So we shouldn't count on you supporting our candidate?

I would think that as a Democrat you'd want to help us change these numbers before November.

[NJSecularist]

9. Our candidate hasn't been picked yet.

Neither candidate will win 2025 pledged delegates.

[tridim]

31. We have our presumptive nominee, Barack Obama. nt

[cliffordu]

52. fail

[Doityourself]

126. Answer the question. Will you support and vote for Obama? Don't dance.

[Nedsdag]

157. I need to ask you a question from one New Jerseyan to another.

Are you supporting Lautenberg or the DINO Rob Andrews in the Senate primary?

You sound like an Andrews supporter.

[nadinbrzezinski]

186. Math impaired? It's over

[reflection]

6. My understanding

is that he has a call in to Mark Penn to ask the exact same question. I'm sure when Penn briefs him on how the electoral college works we'll all be on the same page. No worries.

[David Dunham]

This may change if Obama picks Sen. McCaskill of MO as his running mate

[PBS Poll-435]

13. And let Blunt pick her replacement?

I think NOT.

That seat was fought so hard for and now just throw it away?

[Ino]

190. Blunt's term is at an end.

He's not running for re-election. Nixon (D) will probably win. I don't know which governor (the outgoing or the incoming) would be responsible for choosing a new Senator -- but I don't want McCaskill as VP anyway! I'm not that thrilled with her as my senator (but beats Talent by a long shot).

[NJSecularist]

16. The Missouri Governor is a Republican. No thanks. n/t

[PBS Poll-435]

Beat ya by a minute!

haha

[NJSecularist]

24. Damn, you beat me.

:(

;)

[Missouri Girl]

198. Blunt won't be in office. He's not running

Jay Nixon, our Dem AG, is polling nearly in the 60's against 2 republican challengers. Jay Nixon will be our next governor and would be able to appoint another Dem to fill Claire's spot!

[Robbins]

36. Missouri

The nomination Is over.Obama Is the nominee.He has the lead In Super delgetes.It Is time to stop throwing spring state numbers around and say that that Is how It will turn out In November.
I can tell you Hillary would be a disaster here.The Muslim smear has hurt Obama here and he Is slowly rebounding In Missouri.There were earlier polls that had him losing by 11,and by 8.Now he Is
behind by 6.It Is time to quit the attacks Obama can't win.Remember at one time polls had him losing to Hillary.

[RiverStone]

8. Since Obama will be our nominee, when will you choose to stop attacking our party?

How do your 24/7 Obama can't win stories serve the greater good at this point?

Please, leave the battle to those of us that are confident he will kick McSame's war mongering ass this fall.

I know how tough it is to see Hillary lose the nomination; but she has.

Now we need to focus on beating the pukes this fall.

[TwilightGardener]

38. NJS is a lost soul, at this point.

[GodlessBiker]

10. If Hillary is doing so well, why didn't she beat Obama in the primary?

[PBS Poll-435]

19. Caucuses in Midwestern/Western States.

Edited for clarity

[proud2BlibKansan]

33. Not in MO

They had primaries.

[PBS Poll-435]

51. I meant nation-wide

It was close in MO.

[havocmom]

77. Must be exhusting moving those goal posts for each question

:rofl:

[krawhitham]

34. Missouri had a Primary dumbass

http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/statewideresults.asp?eid=203

[PBS Poll-435]

53. I know. I was referring to the "whole" primary.

After all, Obama is taking a victory lap, right?

[tridim]

43. Yea, she lost the caucus states.

That doesn't make her the nominee.

[Bicoastal]

48. It's Hillary's own damn fault for losing the damn caucuses.

She had no perceivable disadvantage going into them, so the only solution is that, as craaaaazy as these caucuses are, she had an equal opportunity to win them but failed.

And our Democratic system doesn't give out prizes for failure.

[PBS Poll-435]

58. I equate caucuses to IRL DU-GDP.

After all, I participated in the Texas precinct conventions, and it was just like being in GDP.

[tridim]

64. Fuck Democracy eh?

[PBS Poll-435]

87. Now THAT is Ironic.

Democracy. One Man, One Vote.

or

Caucuses. Limited Participation. Support Thresholds.

[tridim]

91. American Democracy is much more than one man, one vote.

It's been that way since 1776.

Read a fucking book.

[PBS Poll-435]

100. Yeah...

Like 3/5ths apportionment.

Like until the 15th Amendment, Black men were not guaranteed the right to vote.

Like until the 19th Amendment, women were not guaranteed the right to vote.

Like until the 24th Amendment, anyone might be denied the right to vote for failure to pay a tax.


And, one of my favorites, the 17th Amendment eliminated the State Legislature "Caucuses" for electing Senators.

[tridim]

182. Quit being so dense. You know that's not what I was talking about.

Our Democratic process is not and has never been defined simply as "one man, one vote".

[PBS Poll-435]

191. See the Supreme Court Cases

Reynolds v. Sims & Wesberry v. Sanders

The underlying basis for the decision is the idea of "One Man, One Vote." That principle is based on the "Equal Protection Clause" of the 14th Amendment.

[PBS Poll-435]

135. ???

[dbmk]

158. Yet, I assume you still think the superdelegates should hand it over to Hillary?

Thats one man, one _delegate_. That has got to rank under caucuses on your list.

[PBS Poll-435]

171. I honestly don't know what the SDs should do.

This year has been a disaster of epic proportions.

[tridim]

185. Hillary could end this "disaster" by this evening if she wanted to.

[PBS Poll-435]

188. Not going to happen.

She is going to at least enjoy her blow-out in WV.

[Exilednight]

213. Decisions are made by those who bother to show up. n/t

[Bicoastal]

71. I have no idea what that means, but if you can't give me a good reason for HRC's team losing them...

...so consistently, that argument is toast.

[Doityourself]

130. Hillary didn't have a prob with caucuses before this began, nor did she have issues when her hubby

ran for office, twice! So, now there's a problem? lmao!!! please

[Hugabear]

113. That is such a lame ass meme, and you KNOW it

Bill Clinton had no problem with the caucus states.

They're only problematic for you because Hillary didn't win. FACT.

[PBS Poll-435]

116. The question is, Why did she lose? The answer is Caucuses.

Rather simple, really.

[Doityourself]

134. She's lost and has lost...rather simple really. TOAST!

[GodlessBiker]

136. No. The question is why did she lose Missouri.

You can't blame her loss in Missouri on caucuses somewhere else.

[GodlessBiker]

139. .

[PBS Poll-435]

148. She tied in Missouri.

(And I thought the question was for the whole primary)

Because I hear that Obama has won.

[proud2BlibKansan]

204. She tied what in MO?

Her shoes?

[PBS Poll-435]

217. Delegates

Lost by one point in the popular vote but tied in delegates.

And that is the only number that matters to most Obama supporters here.

[Missouri Girl]

199. Right!

She lost our primary! We don't have caucuses in this state. It was a regular, old-fashioned, election primary with voting booths and everything.

If Obama's down, it's only because of the whole Wright flap. He will come back and both Obama and Jay Nixon will have good election results come November.

[Hugabear]

180. So what

She's lost primaries also.

If she was such a damned strong candidate, if she was such the obvious leader that you think she is, then why wouldn't she be able to win like her husband did?

[Exilednight]

214. Caucuses are what whe lost, not why she lost. She lost due to failed management skills and ........

organization.

It boils down to the six P's.

Proper Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance.

She didn't properly plan, hence her piss poor performance.

[Stop Cornyn]

11. Are you one of those bitter Democrats we keep hearing about?

[blm]

12. Oh - have we HAD a billion dollars worth of Bush=McCain ads already? Debates?

.

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NJSecularist]

29. Aren't you pleasant?

:puke: :puke: :puke:

You've been reported.

[scheming daemons]

15. Obama beat her... head-to-head... in Missouri. THAT matters much more than polls 6 months out....

..

[NJSecularist]

21. No it doesn't.

Obama only won the urban areas in the primary. That is enough to win the primary, but it is not enough to win Missouri in the general election. To win Missouri in the general, you need to tap into the rural areas and the "Reagan Democrats". Or else you get a result in that state much like Kerry did in 2004.

[krawhitham]

42. WHAT drug makes one so delusional

[Doityourself]

145. The HILLicinogenic kind...lmao

[proud2BlibKansan]

46. Obama won the primary

and there have indeed been elections in MO where KC and St Louis determined the winner. I have lived in this area all my life and lived in MO for 12 years and yes, saw it happen more than once.

[NJSecularist]

49. No, you need the rural vote in Missouri to win the election.

If you are unable to win any rural counties, then you aren't going to win the state. Much like John Kerry in 2004.

[NotThisTime]

65. The rural area's don't vote in the Primary?

Well, if that's the case I guess they should have cause Obama won the Primary

[NJSecularist]

74. The rural areas overwhelming went for Hillary.

Obama won the state because of larger than expected turnout in St. Louis and Kansas City.

[donco]

174. Isn’t that the way McCascal won against an incumbent Repug?

[proud2BlibKansan]

155. Oh yes I am wrong and you are right

Even though I live here. :crazy:

I wouldn't know a damn thing about MO elections. No sireee. :crazy:

[Missouri Girl]

200. Only a part.

St. Louis and KC, along with the central MO area I live in can override the rural bastions. Let me tell you. There is a lot of Obama folks in KC, where my family lives and there is a ton here in Central Missouri where I live. I can only imagine the GOTV movement in KC and St. Louis will be simply overwhelming.

[SteppingRazor]

60. That's actually not necessarily true.

Reasonably solid wins in St. Louis and the surrounding area, Kansas City and the surrounding area, and the area around Boone County are actually enough to overcome the rest of the state, provided that one manages to prevent the outlying areas from turning into routings. That's how McCaskill won in 2006, and it's how Obama can win there in 2008, especially if he espouses the economic populism that got McCaskill a win over a Republican incumbent.

[NJSecularist]

68. McCaskill is a moderate.

To not get routed in the rural areas of Missouri, you need to be a conservative or moderate Democrat. Kerry was liberal and he got slaughtered in most of Southwest, Southeast and Northern Missouri. You are right, you don't have to win most of the rural counties, you need to keep your margins of defeat down in SW, SE and Northern Missouri. Liberals just don't play well in those areas.

[SteppingRazor]

86. But McCaskill won on fairly liberal issues.

In 2006, the state also had ballot initiatives for an increase in minimum wage and funding of stem-cell research. The vast majority of Missouri voters (more than 60 percent, IIRC) supported both of those initiatives, and that liberalization of the down-ticket items probably carried McCaskill to victory in a ludicrously close race.

I realize it's not conventional wisdom, but I think liberal issues, properly framed, actually play very well in Missouri, and I think McCaskill's win actually provides some evidence of that, regardless of her branding as a moderate.

[NJSecularist]

89. Yes, she did win on liberal issues, but she had a moderate image.

She still does, too. Her voting record in the Senate is moderate.

Can Obama regain his public image that he has lost over the last few months? We all know he is a liberal, but particularly voters won't vote for him unless he appears to be moderate. The mainstream media has painted him as a liberal radical the past few months, and that is not an image McCaskill had in her race in 2006.

[SteppingRazor]

94. It's certainly true enough that Obama will have to deal with a "too-liberal" meme...

come the general. I think, given the times we live in, that it can be flipped on its head this election year. Played properly, people should head into the voting booth thinking McCain is too "Bush conservative," not that Obama is too "liberal."

Like I said, a big majority of Missouri voters were in favor of stem-cell research. Convince them to similarly back national heathcare and an end to the war, and they'll vote Obama in due course -- perhaps aided by a moderate on the ticket. Who that moderate may be, I'm not sure.

[cornermouse]

109. Talent was not that well liked.

And McCaskill had scored big on the fiscal responsibility issue with her audits. I am rather appalled at how casually you dismiss anyone outside of K.C. and St. Louis.

[SteppingRazor]

117. My intention is not to casually dismiss anyone...

but simply to expound on the demographics in a state whose electoral history and politics I am very familiar with. I would hope that no offense could be taken, and certainly none intended, by simply stating that K.C., St. Louis and Boone tend to go blue, while the rest of the state tends to go red. It's not a dismissal of the rest of the state, but a simple statement on the state's demographics. And on the contrary, I think the Democratic nominee, whoever it may be, should fight for every vote in all 50 states. That's how we'll win.

[cornermouse]

143. There was a very real potential for blue to make inroads

in the rest of the state. I don't know if you know that a lot of people from other areas have moved in and the area isn't necessarily as "red" in their thinking as they were. The demographics might have changed. I still think the chances were better with Hillary than with Obama.

[proud2BlibKansan]

203. And I can remember when MO was pretty solid blue

How times have changed!

[cliffordu]

62. Penn??? Is that you????

:rofl:

[last_texas_dem]

209. Just because more rural Democratic primary voters supported Clinton

does not mean that these rural MO voters would go for Clinton over McCain in the general election. The poll you cite in your OP doesn't look particularly promising for a Clinton victory, either. Ooh, both Clinton and Obama are currently losing MO to McCain= score one for Clinton!? What kind of point are you trying to make?

[PBS Poll-435]

17. Funny how he does worse against McCain in states that he

supposedly won.

[NJSecularist]

32. To win Missouri in the general, you can't just rely on the urban vote.

Which is what Obama did in the primaries. There were enough votes in the urban area to put him over the top.

You need to tap into the rural areas. Obama wouldn't do that. Hillary can.

[Mooney]

118. "Supposedly"?

He won Missouri. It's a matter of public record.

[Mooney]

121. delete

[PBS Poll-435]

132. I thought they tied? Right?

A win is a win until it isn't, right?

Sure, he got more votes. (Like Clinton in Texas. In fact Clinton won Texas by 4. Obama won MO by around a point.)

They tied in delegates from MO, though.

[Mooney]

137. If Indiana was a win for Hillary, then Missouri was a win for Obama.

Yes?

[PBS Poll-435]

144. Except, she won 4 more delegates in IN then Obama.

More delegates = win, right?

Thats what I have been hearing...

[Mooney]

159. And I keep hearing that it's all about the popular vote.

[PBS Poll-435]

162. So which is it?

Today

[Mooney]

170. It depends who you talk to.

I've always maintained that in the primary, it's about delegates, even delegates acquired through caucuses. So yes, if she got more delegates out of MO, then she won, just like Obama won Nevada because he got more delegates. I think I've been consistent that the only relevant metric in the primaries, and I've never heard anyone affiliated with the Obama campaign say otherwise either. So if you're implying by saying "Today" that the Obama camp or Obama supporters have had constantly shifting, inconsistent rationales for what constitutes a relevant metric for the primaries, I must take exception to that in the strongest possible terms.

It's delegates, delegates, delegates. But the Clinton campaign has slapped that down at every opportunity that it's served them to do so. They are the ones who have advanced the popular vote rationale. They are the ones who have decided that state size is a relevant metric. They are the ones who have declared caucus states irrelevant. In fact, they are the ones who have declared caucuses themselves to be irrelevant. They are the ones who have suggested that some demographic groups are more equal than others. They are the campaign of the shifting rationale, and if you want to know what the relevant metrics are for the primaries "today," you should ask them.

[Sherman A1]

18. I believe the phrase goes like this

"I am from Missouri - Show Me."

It is too early to rely on polls for the general election and I believe with Obama at the head of the ticket it will be a blow out Dem win. I base that on the Dem turnout in the primaries vs the Rep turn out. State by state turnout has been huge.

I don't see them stealing this election as it won't even be close.

[wowimthere]

30. You're absolutely right! This post is doing what Clinton herself is doing... trying to scare us

Fear went out a long time ago. That's old politics.

[rodeodance]

39. boo

[wowimthere]

20. Another poll driven post. These polls are funny. Seriously... McCain? That's crazy

The polls don't take in account of things like Obama is still in the primary season. Democrats are going to trounce any Republican in Blue states, purple states and swing states. The real fight was between Obama and Clinton. The race between Obama and McCain will be over when you put Iraq, the economy, and Bush on the table. Stop yourself.

[NJSecularist]

37. Sorry, it won't be that easy.

If you think it will be that easy, you are delusional.

[bowens43]

22. absolute bullshit.

seriously if this si the best you lemmings can do it's no wonder hillary has had her ass handed to her.

[NJSecularist]

41. Polls are useless?

Only in Obamaland. :crazy:

[Occam Bandage]

25. Polls this far out are meaningless. Thanks for trying, though.

[NJSecularist]

47. Yet national general election polls that you guys like to show daily aren't?

:crazy: :crazy:

How is Obama going to win Missouri? What rural areas is he going to win? Please let me know.

[Lucky 13]

26. Well this just means we have some work to do...

... but it doesn't change who our presumptive nominee is.

So quit the whining and start helping get our nominee elected.

[Seen the light]

27. I'm tired of this bullshit

John Kerry, a horrible presidential candidate, lost the presidency by 100,000 votes (and even that is a matter of dispute). He lost that narrowly despite the Bin Laden tape, despite Bush and the Republicans being much more popular back then, despite the swiftboating, despite...everything. Iraq and the economy have fallen apart since then. And we're supposed to think that because of some bullshit poll in May that our nominee can't win in November?

Fuck. That.

[NJSecularist]

54. Kerry lost the national popular vote by more than 100,000.

And Kerry is a much better candidate than Obama is. Kerry could actually win working class whites in the primary.

[JackORoses]

28. are you sad that all your race-baiting has failed to stop Obama?

[NJSecularist]

55. When have I race-baited?

Examples?

[nomaco-10]

35. The only meaningful polls aren't out yet....

and they will be the ones that start when hillary finally concedes, party unity has begun and obama cleans up the floor with mccain when the general election can finally begin in earnest.

[wowimthere]

40. The polls like the media are using you. You know these polls don't mean anything right now.

Especially in the GE. Clinton who should drop out hasn't. Obama is running against two republicans.

[NJSecularist]

57. Yes, they do mean something. For Obama to be down 6 this early is not a good sign.

He should be in the lead in these states if he is the "presumptive nominee".

[Colobo]

44. You are... bitter...

[sudopod]

45. PROTIP

Election's in November.

The only thing going down the tubes is this prognostication as I hit the back button on my browser.

[enki23]

50. NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

I know math isn't y'all's strong suit, so I won't bother explaining. But really, if you want to talk intelligently about polls(there I go, being all elitist and shit) you might want to know something slightly more than fuck-all about how to actually read them.

[sfam]

56. Why on earth would anyone look at the polls right now...they're flawed...

Wait until Hillary is fully off the stage and the race between the two stabilizes for a month or so, then post doom and gloom threads like this.

[NJSecularist]

59. They're flawed because Obama is losing them, right? n/t

[stevietheman]

81. A poll this far out from November is too disconnected.

And it has nothing to do with the requirements for securing the nomination, which Obama virtually has done.

[sfam]

124. Try to follow me - they're flawed because Hillary is not going to win...

This means the polls are asking questions who pose false choices to voters. A real poll won't even be possible until the dust settles. This is not a knock on Hillary, but again, it is CRYSTAL clear who the nominee is going to be.

Whether or not Obama wins any polls right now, or McCain for that matter is irrelevant.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

61. Another Hillarite promoting defeat in the GE. What is your purpose here?

Shouldn't you be spreading your "news" at F R?

[hfojvt]

63. Why do you bring up capital gains tax rates?

Is that something that Obama and Clinton differ on? Is Clinton playing to the rich people and the fumbducks who don't want to see the tax rate on capital gains go up?

[NJSecularist]

88. I believe Hillary only raises the capital gains tax to 20%. n/t

[gmudem]

66. Wow I didn't know they gave out electoral votes based on May polls

I must have missed that constitutional amendment.

Gee with 12% undecided and only a 6 point deficit in a poll with a 4.5% MOE we might as well just give up the election.

Get a grip.

[NJSecularist]

76. Why are we in such a hole electoral vote wise with Obama as our nominee?

Shouldn't an "electable" candidate be ahead in stats like these at this point? This is the Democrats year after all..

[gmudem]

He's in a hole electoral vote wise? I didn't know they were handing those out yet

[NJSecularist]

165. Well, he's losing Ohio, Florida, Missouri and New Hampshire.

All swing states that we need to carry.

Why are we in such an electoral vote hole with him as our nominee?

[gmudem]

175. Clinton's losing Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan

And is looking very weak in Connecticut, Washington, Oregon, and Hawaii. Not to mention Missouri and New Hampshire. She doesn't even seem to be within striking distance in Nevada. Obama is doing great in Minnesota and Clinton can't even break 50 there.

Anyway, your reliance on April and May polls is comical at best.

[NJSecularist]

176. Both Democrats will win Connecticut, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii.

The latest Rasmussen poll shows them both even in Wisconsin.

Colorado and Iowa are only worth 16 electoral votes.
Florida and Ohio are worth 47 electoral votes.

Both candidates have about an equal chance of winning Michigan.


Next.

[gmudem]

181. You sure?

Obama is overall looking much stronger in WI than Clinton. The Rasmussen poll is one poll, while several other polls show Obama winning and Clinton losing there.

And for somebody who seems to regard April and May polls as some kind sacred truth, you should be pretty petrified of how she is doing in Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Hawaii and Connecticut.

In Washington Clinton's best lead is 50-45 in a poll taken in mid-March. She is losing to McCain 46-43 and 41-38 in 2 polls taken after that. IN WASHINGTON.

In Oregon she wins one poll and is tied in another while losing in another 4 polls. IN OREGON.

The only poll taken in Hawaii has her 43-39. Not exactly a huge lead. In case you're wondering, Obama is up 61-31. But that's only a 34 point difference.

And in Connecticut the last 2 polls have her up 45-42 and 47-44, both within the MOE. And Connecticut, Washington, and Oregon all have tones of white people so you'd think she'd be doing just great there.

And she's not even close in Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, and Nevada.

And when you say Obama is "losing" Ohio, the latest 2 polls have him down 43-42 and 47-45, so it's more like he's tied in Ohio. And I don't see Obama losing Ohio because I just don't see Ohio voting for a Republican again, and if Republicans will win it's probably because of fraud. And if they somehow win legitimately, then I don't want to sound like a dick but Ohioans will look pretty dumb.

[dbmk]

164. You know...

By that logic only one of the parties can select a nominee?

The GE contenders from each party can't all be ahead.

[theboss]

67. That poll shows Hillary and Obama losing Missouri

So...I don't get the point. Are you saying that Hillary will lose Missouri less badly or something?

[NJSecularist]

72. Hillary has not been annointed the "presumptive nominee" by the MSM.

And she is still ahead of Obama four points in the state.

[stevietheman]

82. Obama _is_ the presumptive nominee. n/t

n/t

[book_worm]

69. What are you going to do when you have to stop posting anti-Obama posts?

and obviously you don't seem to understand that a 6-point margin is hardly overwhelming and Obama may win it. Look how he came back in the polls in Indiana.

[AtomicKitten]

70. GE polling means nothing now.

Hillary is trying to muck up the process by staying in the race. It would behoove her to muster the grace to accept her defeat and move off the stage so Obama can turn his attention to McCain.

It has been said that Hillary is purposely trying to sabotage Barack so she can run again in 2012. The longer she stays in the race, the more that suggestion rings true.

Rather than continuing to denigrate Obama, perhaps you too should accept the fact that he is the nominee and then you too can turn your attention to the real enemy, John McCain and the GOP. Just a thought.

[NJSecularist]

84. Yes it does.

While GE polling at this point isn't the be-all-end-all, it does give us an idea how each candidate plays in each state.

For example, we knew in April of 2004 that Ohio wasn't going to be easy for Kerry to win and he was in an uphill battle.

[AtomicKitten]

97. It's time you accept that she is not the nominee and stop trying to bloody up Obama.

Any further efforts on your/her part are destructive to the Democratic Party as a whole.

[onenote]

99. All you've done is prove that neither HRC nor Obama have MO in the bag

You are right. In the spring of 2004, some pollsters had Kerry up by as many as seven points -- and he lost. So the significance of HRC being 2 down now and Obama 7 down is, well, nothing.

They both could win, they both could lose. And comparisons with 2004 are particularly ill advised since the campaign there was against an incumbent and the full repub ticket was known even in the spring. Now we have a race with no incumbent, with no idea who will be on the bottom half of the ticket. The signficance of the choice of VP, the debates, and pretty much everything else will be magnified in 2008 compared to its significance in 2004.

The only thing that you can know for certain about the GE is that you don't know anything for certain.

[cornermouse]

73. I'd say what I think he's going to have to do to win

but it would probably get my post deleted and myself in trouble. That doesn't change the fact that I already know what he's going to have to do and those who still have their wits around them aren't going to appreciate, like or support it.

[MoJoWorkin]

75. I am from SW MO, and I say he can win MO! It is a long way to November.

Such polls now are useless.

Just wait until cool Obama riles McSame into going ballistic. Barack already got under his thin skin, and that was with one little comment yesterday.

Once the public gets to see them side by side (without the Billary backbiting), it will all change for the better. McSame has not been under scrutiny at all of late.

[stevietheman]

78. Enough. Time to get on board the Obama Express for November.

If you're not committed to helping Obama win in November, then you're part of the problem, not part of the solution.

[totodeinhere]

79. Since Obama has clinched the nomination, what purpose does this post have?

[Bright Eyes]

80. So when she finally drops out

Will you be supporting McCain?

Since you are SO convinced we'll lose.

[GetTheRightVote]

83. With HRC out of the picture and her negative ads, he will do just fine.

the poison will be gone from within the Democratic Party.

[hokies4ever]

85. Last gasp?

I can smell the desperation from Hillary supporters. It's almost over. Her misery is about to end. :rofl:

[bobbert]

90. Jeez, that questionairre makes captial gains tax seem like all tax

Most people have no clue what capital gains tax is but think that their taxes will double when asked that question. If you tell someone their taxes will double across the board, of course they will freak out and vote repulbican. We really need these Obama/McCain debates to start so people can become educated about something besides Rev. Wright.

[Fovea]

92. Whose strategy was more effective in 06?

Rahm, or Dean?

You can make the Shrum/Rahm argument, but it is old news, and has been failing the Democratic party since 1994.

We campaign in fifty states, we might just win in 48 of them.

We haven't even started the campaign yet.
But it looks like we are about to.

Shame we had to break the back of the DLC, but it wouldn't listen to reason.

[NJSecularist]

104. The 50 state strategy doesn't work in presidential elections.

In Senate and House elections it does, however.

[dionysus]

146. oh you know this? when was the last time we had one?

oh that's right, we've been losing the presidency using the clinton's swing state sham strategey, hoping to win with 16 states... and losing...

go polish your Al From statue...

[Fovea]

210. While its effect on electoral strategy is not direct

It combines the presidential candidate with a powerful method of boosting, as you said, downticket races.

It also forces the wide stance party to spend in places it expected not to be fighting a race. I think that would be the most effective way to force them not only to lose, but to lose in ways that weaken them structurally.

I can foresee them throwing lots of money into the south and fighting an ugly battle that both pauperizes and further delaminates them.

I hope Obama pushes in every state.

[jefferson_dem]

93. Don't be silly. Obama WON the MO primary and will be very COMPETITIVE there in the General.

Hillary LOST the MO primary and would hardly have put the state in play if (gasp) she had won the nomination.

Again, you cherry pick one poll and distort and exaggerate the results so as to promote your skewed political worldview.

We'll eagerly await your next wild-eyed, Democratic-nominee bashing OP.

It won't be long. Time to pick sides.

[NJSecularist]

98. Listen, Obama won the primary on the back of large than average urban turnout.

If he gets a larger than average urban turnout in the general election, he'll still lose the state by 5 points. You need to do well in the rural counties in Southwest, South East and Central Missouri to win the state. Kerry couldn't and Obama won't. Hillary would have a chance to win some rural counties because she is seen as more moderate.

[jefferson_dem]

114. MO is the ultimate bellwether.

We can agree on that.

Obviously, Obama will need to supplement his massive turnout in St. Louis and KC with support from independents in the small towns and rural communities. He will be competitive because he will appeal to MO-type idenpendents.

It's a cutesy bait and switch to say primary results matter when they are favorable to Hillary (OH and PA) but not when they are favorable to Obama (MO).

Do not compare Obama's appeal to that of JK. The old political models will not work so don't even try. This election will be different. Watch.

[NJSecularist]

119. What indication do you have that Obama will appeal to MO independents?

Bush won the independent vote by 6 points in 2004.

[jefferson_dem]

131. Here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5843021

[NJSecularist]

147. That is indicative of nothing. n/t

[jefferson_dem]

150. Ok.

You're dismissed.

Bye.

[Missouri Girl]

201. Central Missouri is a Dem stronghold.

You are almost right. All you need is about 30% in the outstate areas and pull them in KC and St. Louis. This strategy is no different than the Clintons' or any other Dem running in this state. It's worked for them - IT WILL WORK FOR OBAMA. Listen to the Missouri girl - born and bred here in Missouri, living here in Missouri now.

[workinclasszero]

95. Whatever. Wait till the GE when gas is 5 bucks a gallon and

Gramps McCain promises 100 years of war in Iraq AND Iran plus more tax breaks for the rich and oil companies!

I suppose the goddess of peace, who threatened to obliterate every man woman and child in Iran with nuclear hellfire, would win every state in the union, eh?:eyes:

Besides Hillary is still helping McCain by not facing reality and getting behind the democratic candidate for president.

Wait till the GE. Obama is gonna beat McWar like a fricken drum!

[zulchzulu]

96. I thought you'd know about how polls 6 months out are pretty meaningless by now

6 months before the primary season started, Hillary Clinton had the race IN THE BAG in terms of polling. Funny how that happens...

[NJSecularist]

101. Apples and oranges.

We knew 6 months from the 2004 election that Ohio was going to be tough for Kerry to win.

[Jersey Devil]

106. And in June, 1992 Bill Clinton was in 3rd place behind Ross Perot

You knew that too I bet

[NJSecularist]

111. Ross Perot could have won that race if he had not quit in July. n/t

[CTLawGuy]

102. half the people don't know what the capital gains tax is

much less pay it. they see "raise" and "tax" and they say "no".

[CatsDogsBabies]

103. Why are people still writing this stuff?

[enki23]

105. Since nobody noticed, and since this is important... SOUND THESE WORDS OUT WITH ME HERE

(Christ, I hate having to do that)

NOTE: Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence

And that margin of error (despite what the name makes it look like it says) actually must, by its nature, assume there is no fundamental error in the sampling methodology. In reality, polls are almost always going to be *less precise* than their MOE would seem to indicate. Note that I said precise, not accurate. If you aren't aware of the difference in meaning between the two, you are also probably underqualified to interpret poll results.

What someone who could actually read this data, even a little, would take away here is this: there is no statistical difference in preference between barack obama or hillary clinton when matched up against john mccain in missouri


I can't believe this isn't being pointed out. This is how fucking stupid our political discourse really is, isn't it.

[CreekDog]

107. Who are you trying to convince?

are you under the impression that your audience is made up of folks from WV, KY, OR, SD, MT and PR?

[AndyTiedye]

108. Probably Not Through Missouri

Missouri is a red state. Neither of our candidates are likely to win there.
It is not impossible, Bill Clinton won it, but it is a long shot at best.

[proud2BlibKansan]

205. But MO hasn't always been a red state

And to this day KC and St Louis are very blue and it is impossible to win an election in MO without KC and St Louis. Add in central MO, which is also very blue, plus the anger at the republicans in rural MO and MO has a great chance of turning blue in November.

[Citizen Kang]

110. Very soon

these sorts of posts will not be allowed and you will be Tombstoned. We have a nominee and you, as a Democrat, should support him. Yes, the primary was tough. But you have to either fall in line (like I did when Kerry was the nominee to my great dismay) or leave the party.

These type of posts claiming how our nominee cannot win are REPUBLICAN talking points.

[butterfly77]

112. Hillary thinks that..

all of the new voters,eggheads,and blacks will support her if she is the nominee :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[goldcanyonaz]

115. Mississippi, Georgia and South Carolina will makeup for that

:rofl:

[jefferson_dem]

120. CO, NM, IA, and VA will if they need to.

n/t

[goldcanyonaz]

133. VA is not an in the bag state. NM is a definite possibility, but CO and IA are very iffy

[Carrieyazel]

196. New Mexico will be tough for him as well. Right down the middle as any state.

Also, large Hispanic constiuency there, not his best demo.

[PBS Poll-435]

160. And the sister States of Idaho & Utah.

They are as good as won.

We might as well just cancel the election. It is going to be a BLOWOUT!

Pay special attention to Alaska & Alabama! <--- My personal bellwethers for the election.

[goldcanyonaz]

166. North Dakota and Nebraska will also be a sure bet.

[PBS Poll-435]

167. Omaha was MADE for Obama.

[Doityourself]

122. Which phase of grieving are you in..looks like ANGER or is it DENIAL. They need to add PETTINESS!

[Mooney]

123. How many superdelegates do you imagine this thread will send Hillary's way?

[L0oniX]

125. Rooting for your candidate? Enjoy it while you can. (Freeper?)

[FlaGranny]

127. What is it you're trying to

accomplish here? You're too late with your arguments to change anything. If (in your wildest dreams) you could get enough people to listen to you, you might change a few minds about the general election - thus helping McCain. Is that what you want to do?

[Dr Fate]

128. I'm ready to start fighting McCain & the GOP whenever you are.

Born ready.

Whenever you guys are all through strolling down memory lane we can get started...

[SurfingAtWork]

129. If the GE were going to be held next week, these polls would have me mighty concerned.

[Mooney]

141. Good thing it's six months away.

[SurfingAtWork]

152. Exactly

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

138. snicker. I love comedy.

[dionysus]

140. you're on a path to a tombstone....

[PBS Poll-435]

169. You seem to have a real fixation with that lately.

Per the rules, if you find a post that is objectionable or offense, just click 'Alert.'

[dionysus]

192. i don't alert, i just like to point out you guys won't have much longer to post horseshit like this.

[PBS Poll-435]

193. And the irony is, by doing that, YOU may be at odds with the rules.

[dionysus]

195. oh merciful heavens!!! *tremble*

[OzarkDem]

142. More proof Dems will lose the GE

if Obama is the nominee. He can't carry the big swing states.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

189. You take comfort in losing. Sad.

[Sherman A1]

212. Glad you have a crystal ball

and have all the answers already..

[sampsonblk]

149. Like yourself, those voters need to be educated, not coddled, by November.-nt

[NoodleyAppendage]

151. Obama's path to electoral victory is PAVED OVER THE GUTS of your stinking RACIST CANDIDATE. n/t

J

[Touchdown]

153. That's ok. Colorado and New Mexico will take up the slack.

Stay in your "taxes are bad" syndrome. The rest of the country will move on without you. Your beelweather status will also come to and end this year as well.

We'll "Show You":rofl:

[jillan]

154. If you think this party is divided now, just wait and see what happens if Obama can't pull it off.

[Guava Jelly]

156. I live in missouri

don't believe the polls

[NJSecularist]

163. I live in New Jersey, and I think Obama is going to lose this state.

I could make that argument.

See why we don't use anecdotal evidence and instead we use professionally conducted polls?

[Guava Jelly]

168. And polls are always correct right?

Whatever.
Spin away
Obama will be our nominee and he will win Missouri.
I have no idea why this thread needed to be started to begin with.
Do ya think it is going to change anything?
It ain't sorry..Have a great day

[Jersey Devil]

173. indeed

NJ - Obama 56 - McCain 32

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP16_1.pdf

Now let's see your professionally conducted poll(s) where you can make the "argument" that Obama loses NJ

[Kool Kitty]

187. Thanks, Jersey Devil.

I'm from Jersey, too, and I don't see McCain winning here, either. :hi:

[Froward69]

161. some people in some places will vote pigment

nothing else. sad and ignorant. vote against their own best interest as to keep a darker human out of office.

[K8-EEE]

172. Oh yes and these #s are set in stone all the way to Nov!

Oh brother!! LOL!

Obama is gonna kick ASS in the GE -- and McCain is like a balloon with the air being let out, God he looks and sounds AWFUL these days.

[Drunken Irishman]

177. Poor, poor NJ...he's almost as delusional as the candidate he supports.

I'll forgive you, though, it must be hard knowing you backed a loser. :(

I've been there...it sucks, but I got over it and you'll probably get over it as well. :)

Buck up, bud!

[Name removed]

178. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[frylock]

179. you rubes make this too easy

*ignore*

[marmar]

183. Grace in accepting defeat is the mark of a truly evolved person.......

N'est-ce pas?

[nadinbrzezinski]

184. This is for you

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5894592&mesg_id=5894592

[Carrieyazel]

194. Reality Check: Obama cannot win Missouri, KS, VA, NC or FL.

I see those states mentioned consistently on these boards as states "he can definitely win." No, he can't. The general electorate will go with McLame in those states.

He's also well behind in supposed batteground states, like Ohio, New Hampshire and Nevada. Not his kind of demos in those states.

That leaves him without any room for error.

[Leopolds Ghost]

197. NJS switched from pro-Obama to... Pro-HILLARY?? Because he SUPPORTS BUSH Capital Gains Tax cuts!!!

Methinks you doth protest too much, NJSecularist.

[haymakeragain]

202. Please clearly state your point. Thanks in advance.

Is it that you want to overturn the primary process because of a poll in May? If that's it you need to get a grip. What else could your point possibly be? I'll wait here.

[NJSecularist]

206. Missouri is just another swing state that Obama won't win. n/t

[Sherman A1]

211. We will find out in due time

But, I wouldn't bet the farm that he won't win it.

[hayu_lol]

207. Guess that the only thing to do is wait and see what all the...

caucuses in the GE produce.

Hope and Change, by themselves, ain't gonna cut it.

[Gore1FL]

208. By your logic it is down the tubes with either

A lot more red states are in play with Obama.

Is this the anger phase?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

215. Obama's beating a path for McCain to sit in White House

[RBInMaine]

216. These polls mean very little right now. WAY to early.