Obama's been flooding the Kentucky airwaves with commercials

[BluegrassDem]

It's been going on for about 3 weeks or so. And just today, I saw the first Hillary commercial. I think Hillary will still win here, but it won't be the blowout like West Virginia.

Obama will win Jefferson County, which is where Louisville is and our most populous county. I also think he'll carry Fayette County, which includes Lexington, and the University of Kentucky. Obama will also carry Franklin County, which is where Frankfort is located. It's the most liberal and strongest Democratic county in the state. Outside of those counties, I don't see Obama doing much. The fortunate thing for him is that the most of the population resides in the Lexington-Louisville-Cincinnati corridor. Appalachia is not heavily populated.

[Sadie5]

1. He might

carry the large cities with the AA vote, so far that is what he has relied on. There is not much in the way of AA vote from here on out.

[thoughtcrime1984]

4. Yup, he only gets AA's

Give me a break. I'd venture a guess that the AA votes he gets do not even cancel out the ANTI-AA votes that Hillary gets. I'm a white male, and virtually every person I know (most are white) voted for Obama. He gets more white and other races' votes than he gets credit for. You even sound just like your candidate- scary.

[anamandujano]

7. 90% is pretty damn good.

[4themind]

2. If I may ask

do you know how many democratic voters are registered in KY? Thanks

[here_is_to_hope]

3. We are getting it

from all sides here in Oregon.

[4themind]

5. If I can also ask

when were the ballots sent out in oregon and (i realize that this would just be a guess but) do people usually mail these things back immediately or do they wait a little while to see how the race unfolds. Are they counted only on the day of primary, or as soon as they are received by election officials? Thanks

[here_is_to_hope]

10. I read somwhere that most keep them for a week or so? n/t

[rocktivity]

6. Obama doesn't need a blowout in West Virginia--35% would be plenty

Because Hillary needs 86% of the vote to stay alive now. The last poll I saw had Obama at 27%, but there were 14% undecided. Maybe her "dumb white theory" will be enough to push them in the right direction. His campaign is looking for people who can phonebank WV, by the way.

:headbang:
rocknation

[emilyg]

8. I have a friend in Louisville

he pretty much thinks as you do.

[BluegrassDem]

9. There are some heavily populated AA counties in western KY

Western KY is very Democratic and there are some counties there with high black populations, however, it's not enough to win the whole state. I do think he'll perform better here than in West Virginia. No doubt about that. If Obama had to pick one of the states to battle for, he'd do much better in KY. Plus, he should scrimmage with the UK basketball team! Basketball is life in Kentucky. People here breathe basketball. If he plays some bball with the UK basketball team, he'll gain so much good PR that Hillary couldn't even touch. I hope his campaign realizes this. Basketball is bigger in KY than in Indiana or North Carolina.