Obama's Super-Del Whip: Many Super-Dels Back Obama, But Won't Go Public

[babylonsister]

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/obama_supporter_many_superdels.php

Obama's Super-Del Whip: Many Super-Dels Back Obama, But Won't Go Public
By Greg Sargent - May 8, 2008, 6:20PM

I just got off the phone with Rep. Melissa Bean, who is one of Obama's chief super-delegate whip-counters. She said two things of interest:

First, she predicted that it was "entirely possible" that Obama could pull even with Hillary in super-delegates by next week -- and predicted that at the end of the process Obama would have more super-del support than Hillary.

And second, she insisted that many super-dels who are publicly uncommitted actually are privately backing Obama but won't say so right now.

"They're uncommitted, but it doesn't mean they're undecided," said Bean, who speaks to super-dels daily. Why go public, she asked, "if it's unnecessary and will alienate a portion of your base?"

"You're gonna see more quietly let him know, and some already have, that they're in his column," Bean said.

more...

Late Update: Bean answers the Wright question here:

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http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/obamas_superdel_whip_wright_ma.php

Obama's Super-Del Whip: Wright Makes Super-Dels More Eager To Back Obama
By Greg Sargent - May 8, 2008, 6:47PM

As noted below, after interviewing Rep. Melissa Bean, one of Obama's chief super-delegate whip-counters, I contacted her office with a follow-up question:

How often do super-dels raise concerns about Reverend Wright, or about Hillary's claim that Obama struggles with blue collar whites?

Here's the answer that was sent back, from Bean herself:

"I have not heard that as a reservation from anybody. I only heard about Reverend Wright in the context of people saying it made them decide to step forward sooner to declare their support for Senator Obama."

This seems like a reference to Obama's handling of the Wright affair. Either way, it's a striking claim indeed from Bean, who talks to the super-dels every day, and obviously runs counter to virtually all of the roar of punditry we've heard on the topic.

[nomorewhopper]

1. the superdelegates will give Hillary a few days to drop out in order to not alienate her base

after that, the boom will drop

[4themind]

2. See but my opinion, is these "uncomitted"

regardless of who they're leaning to, for the sake of the party IMO, should tell Hillary to "play nice"(i.e. avoid comments like the ones she made today) or the game is over.

[rocktivity]

3. They're waiting until May 20, when Obama clinches the pledged delgate lead

he needs only 33 more (Hillary needs 202 more).

:headbang:
rocknation

[babylonsister]

4. Staggering numbers, in a good way! nt

[my3boyz]

5. What are you talking about when you say he only needs 33 more?

I heard someone else say that Obama would announce after May 20th because he would have that? I thought he needed 2025? I remember the media saying he need 100-something to get the nomination.

[ProgressiveEconomist]

7. Since it's unlikely anyone will reach 2025 with predged delegates alone, Nancy

Pelosi and others have declared a secondary milestone that's within reach: getting a simple MAJORITY of pledged delegates. When that milestone is reached, Pelosi and others will step up pressure on Supers to declare and push the candidate with the pledged majority over the 2025 threshold.

In the past, whenever the Democratic Party has not had several months before the convention with a presumptive nominee, the convention has usually failed to start a strong groundswell for Democratic victory in November.

In the opinion of Party "grownups", the stakes are too lhigh to let such a waste of Convention media buzz take place this time. Hence the almost-certain achievement of the simple majority of SDs on May 20th is a BFD.

[my3boyz]

16. Oh okay. Thank you for the explanation. nt

[WeDidIt]

14. He's already guaranteed the majority under the rules

Under the rules around apportionment and viability, getting 15% pog the vote in any congressional district results in an automatic delegate in that candidate's column.

Obama has never missed viability in any congressional district to date (though Hillary was not viable in some cogressional districts).

There are 37 remaining congressional districts, and Obama will gain one delegate in each.

[dansolo]

15. Some SDs have publicly stated that the majority of pledged delegates

Is their criteria. I believe even John Murtha, who endorsed Hillary, sad that he would ultimately vote for the pledged delegate leader. Once Obama reaches that milestone, there will be a flood of superdelegates coming out for him.

[dbmk]

17. Not sure you are right

15% give you viability - makes your votes count. Afaik its not a guarantee of a delegate.

In some districts there are thresholds for a delegate higher than that(3 delegates = 16,667% for 1 delegate). More or less the same granted, but not quite.

In Kentucky there are apparently at least 1 where there is an outside chance of him not making it.

[Cha]

6. The Super Dele Morsels..

are ripening in the wings.

Thanks, babylonsis..this is Encouraging:)

[TragedyandHope]

8. From all the interviews I've seen with undeclared SDs

They aren't concerned with a lot of the issues that have been hot topics here and in the headlines. One of the undeclared SDs said flat out that half of the public arguments Hillary is making are non-issues and not figuring into their decisions at all.

They're looking at winning more Congressional seats and other down-ticket races and who will best suit their own needs and the party's needs.

[SoCalDem]

9. and MONEY.. He's got more than he can spend..and has shown himself to be generous

he campaigned for and helped the guy who took Denny Hastert's seat..

Hillie's broke, mean and selfish

[TragedyandHope]

10. Yup, Bill Foster

[depakid]

11. Pass the loot

I have little doubt that my dishonest congress critter David Wu behaves that way. And he isn't even in a tough race- yet refused to wait until his constituents had spoken for themselves. I say dishonest because I had a little face to face conversation regarding his support of the bankruptcy legislation on the MAX train in 2006 (he likes to ride it all around at election time).

Surrounded by his supporters and sycophants, I asked a couple of pointed questions (that anyone who reads could ask) and he flat out lied to me (and everyone else). Looked me right in my eyes and lied.

He got the loot on that one (look it up)- and despite the fact that he's a lawyer, he couldn't defend his vote honestly to a simple Oregon citizen in a sweatshirt and jeans.

[Raine]

12. WHAT the hell are the waiting for?!?

I'm sick of them playing coy, they need to get some guts and come out with it! :argh: This whole thing is getting ridiculous and making the party look stupid. It's also going to lose us not only the Whitehouse but the Senate and Congress. :mad:

[shadowknows69]

13. So, Pastor Wright is going to make us win sooner

Gotta love it.