The Math out of Lake County Indiana (segregated towns of Gary and Hammond) is FISHY

[Leopolds Ghost]

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/06/live-blogging-the-indiana-north-carolina-primaries/

11:58 p.m. | Helloooo, Gary?: We’ve been trying to get a hold of Rudy Clay, the mayor of Gary, Ind. but his voicemail box is full. Hmmm. And yes, he’s a big Obama supporter.

In fact, in March he predicted that Indiana’s primary would be close and that the final tally would come down to … Gary, of all places.

“They are going to point at Indiana and say Hillary Clinton is leading by one point, but Gary ain’t come in yet,” Mr. Clay told a crowd at the opening of an Obama office.

That’s just about the way things have unfolded tonight, although Mrs. Clinton is leading by 3 or 4 points.

Vote-counting is a laborious process. Lake County has about 11,000 absentee votes that need to be counted. The county is not releasing any results in dribs and drabs, as many counties do, but apparently wants to make a statement with all its votes at once.

The world is waiting, Gary. Not Louisiana, Paris, France, New York, or Rome, but Gary, Indiana.

12:12 a.m. | Hanging On: Mrs. Clinton has to be glad she got her speech over with. As this contest goes into the night, the news is only getting grimmer for her, with the possibility that her hopes for a win in Indiana could be diminished.

About 28 percent of the vote from Lake County is in (forget what we said about not coming in in dribs and drabs). Those votes are from Gary and are going 3-1 for Mr. Obama.

Tom McDermott, the mayor of Hammond, which is also in Lake County, is telling CNN that Hammond turned its votes in at 7:30 and Mrs. Clinton was ahead by 600 votes. It’s not clear why Gary is so behind.

“It’s a shame that Lake County is being focused on the way it is now,” Mr. McDermott says, adding that no one knows what’s going on in Gary.

The rest of the grim news: Mr. Obama’s win in North Carolina was a landslide, 57 percent to 41 percent, with 97 percent of precincts in.

1 a.m. | Still Counting: Mayor Rudy Clay of Gary is on the phone with CNN. He says the city had the biggest turnout it has ever had to deal with, including a record number of early voters (11,000). He’s not quite answering the question of why the county didn’t even report partial results earlier. “When we present these figures, they will be correct,” he says. “This should all be over very shortly.”

Now, at 1 a.m., six hours after the polls closed, 56 percent of Lake County results are in. Mr. Obama has 46,000 votes to Mrs. Clinton’s 25,000, or 65 percent to 35 percent.

Well, some say this thing is over. Here was NBC’s Tim Russert at 12:11a.m.: “We now know who the Democratic nominee is going to be, and no one is going to dispute it.” (Thanks to our colleague Brian Stelter for catching the quote!)

1:14 a.m. | Finally, It’s Over: O.K., The Associated Press, CNN and others are calling Indiana for Senator Clinton, in what looks like a narrow 50.9-to-49.1 split.

But it’s been a long night, with internecine warfare among Indiana politicians playing out as impatience took hold. The mayor of Hammond was back on air on CNN, feuding with Mayor Clay of Gary, Ind.

Mayor McDermott of Hammond called the delay in Gary results fishy. “It makes it look as if something corrupt may be happening,” he says. “It looks improper.”

Mayor Clay declared: “There is no hanky panky going on here in Lake County.”

Meanwhile, 98 percent of the vote in Lake County came in, with Mr. Obama winning 66,265 votes to Mrs. Clinton’s 53, 310, or 55 percent to 45 percent. She’s still ahead statewide, with 51 percent of the vote.

NBC is calling Mrs. Clinton the “apparent winner.”

OK, logic puzzle here:

Gary and Hammond are totally segregated. Gary is nearly all-black, Hammond is nearly all-white. Guess which mayor endorsed who?

With 95% in statewide, Obama was behind by 16,000 votes.

(including only 25% of Lake County, reputedly all from half of Gary
where returns posted the entire early returns for Lake County as 75-25% Obama, per CNN)

Chuck Todd said he was afraid the Mayor of Hammond's comment sounded familiar, and seemed saddened and disgusted, saying that whoever released returns first, the other mayor might make up the difference Chicago-fashion. This is a SERIOUS PRACTICE there.

The 25% of Lake County was reputedly from Gary, where the Mayor said Obama was ahead 3-1 citywide.

The late returns were reputedly from Hammond, where the Mayor said Clinton was ahead by 500 votes,
plus the remaining half of Gary vote where Obama was running 3-1.

When the remainder of Lake County as a whole came in,

Clinton jumped from being 16,000 ahead to 22,000 ahead statewide (final tally).

Lake County as a whole voted 55-45 for Obama.

Hammond, as mentioned was reputedly Clinton by 500 votes
according to the mayor before they posted up (because the two mayors
were playing chicken to see who posted first), while the initial
returns from Lake County, mostly Gary were 75-25 Obama
with 95% statewide reporting, when Obama was 16,000 votes behind.

Does this math make sense to you?

[CreekDog]

1. because Gary is a hell of alot bigger than Hammond

and Lake County's polls close later because of the time zone thing and wasn't there a court order that held open the polls later in some areas? also this is one of Obama's strongest areas so they were overwhelmed by turnout, early ballots, etc.

[Leopolds Ghost]

3. No, you don't get it. Gary's totals were more than cancelled out by the tally in Hammond. How?

[CreekDog]

6. oh, here's why, Gary is only 20% of Lake County

so a 75% for Obama in Gary would be totally offset to a countywide tie by a 56% Hillary margin everywhere else.

[Leopolds Ghost]

8. Mayor of Hammond says Hillary was ahead by 500 votes.

[CreekDog]

13. and he won the county by about 10 points

had she been ahead in the rest of the county by 10 points, she would have tied Obama in that county.

i think that's what happened.

[Leopolds Ghost]

10. I won't deny both municipalities have a history of vote-stealing according to Chuck Todd.

[CreekDog]

15. i understand the suspicion

and it's true that barely winning Indiana kept her in, though losing it she would still be in (although perhaps the delegates would be flowing more freely to Obama).

[BearSquirrel2]

18. Valpo polls ...

Some polls in Valparaiso were held open an hour because of a lack of Democratic ballots (lots of Republicans voting on the Democratic ballot). Porter county reported on time. But than again, that counting is all automated from the optical scan cards.

[smalll]

2. LOL if they stole any votes in Gary (next-door-to-Chicago) they stole them for Obama.

Withholding all results until "every" vote had been counted?

[Leopolds Ghost]

4. Math, people. Learn it. Hammond stole enough votes so that Lake County increased Clinton's lead.

You can't steal the votes unless the other side posted first.

Mayor of Hammond says Hammond was Clinton by 500 votes.

But when Hammond plus the remaining half of Gary came in,

Clinton's lead SHOT UP from 16,000 to 22,000.

These late returns also took Lake County from 75-25% with 95% reporting statewide to 55-45% final tally, per CNN.

HOW?

[Leopolds Ghost]

7. 22,000 votes is one tenth of Obama's lead in NC. So Lake County giving Clinton 6,000 NET votes

AFTER Gary posted returns that were 75-25% from early precincts, is unexplained.

Given Gary's size,

What vote differential in (all-white) Hammond is needed to take Lake County from 75-25% (Gary only)

to 55-45% (county total)?

[anigbrowl]

12. Well, I suggest you chase down the county and precinct results

I looked on the Indiana SOS website but it only had totals for the county.
I did find this news article, which mentioned that the sheriff and the local GOP were observing the count to monitor for irregularities. http://cbs2chicago.com/campaign08/northwest.indiana.vote.2.718034.html

[SemiCharmedQuark]

5. The mayor of Hammond is a HUGE asshole

http://www.post-trib.com/news/915074,mcdermottfolo.article

Here he is complaining that H.S. students have a school sponsored field trip to go vote. He claims it amounts to school sponsored voting for Obama. Except "Oops" they've been doing it for THREE YEARS ALREADY.

http://www.nwitimes.com/articles/2008/04/24/news/top_news/docfd54d825008dfa8586257435000a6c51.txt

That said, I don't know anything about election tampering, so I'd rather not speculate.

[Leopolds Ghost]

9. It's all racial, I'll warrant.

I live in DC area which is one of the LESS racist cities and I know dog-whistles when I hear em.

[Boz]

16. What part of DC do you live in, because it raises some real questions about your judgement

There are 4 major segregated cities, DC, Cleveland Detroit and Gary.

Im just very interested to see what your experience perspective is shaped by.

That allow you to make that statement.

[Muttocracy]

11. % reporting = % of precincts, not % of votes

so you can't extrapolate from % of places reporting - it depends on the # of votes in each precinct. Small precincts might report early because they get done counting fast, or they might report late because they have fewer staff. You just have to wait for the votes to be counted.

I'm happy that they took their time and released things once instead of racing to meet the cable news needs and reporting estimates and corrections.

Ask yourself, how fast did we know the results of elections before telephones?

Did concern for fast vote tallying do us any good in Florida or Ohio in 2000 or 2004?

[meow mix]

14. it was suspicious how they slammed on the brakes at the very end.

and then the rapid gains obama had been making in his territory, suddenly stopped and reversed.
hmmm

[BearSquirrel2]

19. Hammond isn't as white as some claim ...

Here is some data from the Indiana department of education. This is a "majority minority" community.

School.........%White....%Black....%Hispanic...%Other
Hammond High......10%.......55%.......32%.........2%
Hammond Morton HS 41%.......22%.......32%.........4%
Hammond Gavit HS..36%.......31%.......21%.........7%
Gary West HS...... 0%.......99%........1%.........0%
Lew Wallace HS ....0%.......97%........2%.........1%
Gary Roos. HS......0%.......99.9%......0%.........0%


Since black folk are breaking for Obama 90-10, and Gary is almost completely African American, I would expect better results out of Gary. But as you can see, Hammond is NOT a "white town". The northern rim of the lake is ringed by the old industrial towns. These are the ones south of the mills The "burbs" are either to the south, to the east or the few patches of lakefront not occupied by either steel mills or parks.


http://mustang.doe.state.in.us/SEARCH/snapshot.cfm?schl=4415
http://mustang.doe.state.in.us/SEARCH/snapshot.cfm?schl=4413 etc...

So yeah, the results ARE suspicious and I will point out that only Clay was supporting Obama. The entire Lake County political machine (and it's Porter County coat tails) were backing Hillary. The Hillary camp is borrowing a Rovian strategy, hit em where they're strongest.

[chknltl]

17. This article in NW Indiana Times may be germain:

I am not sure where I stand on the phenomenon that occured last night, it was indeed odd. I ran accross a link to this article in Brad-Blog:

Late Lake Co. vote results criticized, explained
BY BILL DOLAN
[e-mail]
219.662.5328 | Wednesday, May 07, 2008

CROWN POINT | An overwhelming voter turnout, at least one case of votes that were briefly missing and a conscious decision to delay announcing the results Tuesday night left voters wondering who won Indiana's primary.

National pundits publicly accused Lake County election officials of manipulating the release of vote totals, and some local officials speculated that the canvas was being stage managed to build suspense and focus the country's attention on Lake County.

Election officials posted what appeared to be final, unofficial totals about 6 a.m. Wednesday.

"We're real tired," Lake County election board employee Naomi Roby said early Tuesday. She said it isn't unusual for election results here to come in later than other counties.

Elections Board Director Sally LaSota denied Tuesday night the county was holding back results to help either U.S. Sen. Barack Obama or Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Election officials promised before the election their purchase of 525 Infinity state-of-the-art electronic voting machines, at a cost of $1.4 million, would deliver results much faster.

However, LaSota said they didn't anticipate a record 11,000 absentee ballots cast in the final days before Tuesday, many of which were paper ballots that had to be meticulously counted by hand. A total of 144,000 votes were cast, almost a 51 percent turnout.

LaSota said she refused to release final results until all the absentee ballots were cast, despite pressure by the national media.

"They aren't telling us what to do," she said.

The first unofficial numbers out of Lake County didn't beginning appearing until after 9:30 p.m.

Gary Mayor Rudy Clay, whose position as county Democratic county chairman gives him considerable influence over the vote canvas, said late Tuesday, "There isn't any hanky panky."

He also said, "This isn't Florida," -- a reference to the 2000 presidential election, which wasn't decided until 36 days after the election because of a dispute regarding votes in Florida.

On the Republican side of the isle, GOP County Chairman John Curley agreed, saying it took time to correctly count the absentee ballots. He deemed it a clean election.

Lake County Prosecutor Bernard Carter and Lake County Sheriff Rogelio "Roy" Dominguez both were present late Tuesday at the election board office at the Lake County Government Center in Crown Point, where the staff was counting votes. Neither appeared alarmed at the delay.

The sheriff said his officers had to locate a polling worker who had failed to turn over voting results in one Hammond precinct. Election results posted at 6 a.m. Wednesday indicated votes in all 561 precincts in the county had been counted.

Lake County Surveyor George Van Til, who secured the Democratic nod for another run in the fall Tuesday night, criticized the county's handling of the election Wednesday morning.

"I didn't know my numbers until I woke up this morning," Van Til said.

As for the election officials, Van Til said sarcastically, "They've got some real winners there."

"Lake County didn't win last night," he said. "We look stupid."

Van Til noted this is not the first time the county has been late with election results.

"The only problem is, this time the whole world was watching," he said.

-- Times Staff Writer Christine Kraly contributed to this report.