The Super Delegate Bomb

[SoonerPride]

I fully expect the Obama campaign to unleash a super delegate bomb of 75-100 names either Friday morning or Monday morning.

This will completely rock the press and will also make the narrative that even with 100% Clinton wins in W Va and KY, his delegate math erased those two states from even mattering.

In the interim between W Va and Kentucky, negotiations will be completed to seat FL as is and MI with him garnering the delegates from the "uncommitteds."

He'll finally sow up the magic number, formally, with a huge win in Oregon and then, at last on 5/20/08 Hillary Clinton will deliver a bittersweet campaign farewell address to the nation.

[MadBadger]

1. Not gonna happen....Its gonna be a drip drip drip.

[SoonerPride]

2. They've had the drip drip drip and then will unleash a flood

The finality of it will be breataking

[MadBadger]

6. The big day will be May 20

That is when he will clinch the pledged delegates. That day you will see a bunch move to him.

[Boz]

11. I have said it for 5 weeks: May 20th, Oregon, Obama, Magic Number, Democratic Nominee

[SoonerPride]

29. I originally had this over last night.

I thought he'd win both and she'd quit.

Her eeking out a win prolonged the agony.

[FARAFIELD]

5. I agree with the last poster

He wont all of a sudden release a flood (mainly because there is no Flood to release). Besides now with more money he is in the drivers seat. Sort of Like grant after Wilderness, he advanced even when he lost. Let her have her fling. He will look good on TV in the College towns in WV. and KY, and she will "romp" to wins which are predestined. But he will win big (at least 10) in oregon and it will be all over.

[nxylas]

3. I'll believe it when I see it

I mean, it'd be nice, but it seems we've been hearing about imminent SD bombs about twice a week since Super Tuesday, and it never seems to be more than a trickle.

[SoonerPride]

8. They were waiting for this moment.

They've released the trickle here and there to turn news cycles as needed.

Now comes the deluge.

I feel it in me bones.

[Occam Bandage]

4. And then I fully expect a pony made of rubies and diamonds to drop from the sky.

[Lady-Damai]

9. Why a pony?

:popcorn:

[SoonerPride]

10. Sweet

that would be awesome.

[AllentownJake]

7. They don't want to make it look

like the party forced her out.

5 super delegates a day till Oregon.

[SoonerPride]

13. Well, you might be right, but it will be just enough shy of the number to make Oregon count

And thus the supers won't be the ones who ended the race, but moved the finishing line within easy reach on 5/20

[4themind]

19. It's may not get easier to come out as time moves on

If they seat the delegates as is on May 31st (which is what hillary will do if she has a chance of still winning) it will set a (IMO) very bad precedent for the adherence of the rules during an electoral cycle. The "Michigans and Floridas" may grow in number, and perhaps making problems like MI and FL , MORE likely to occur rather than less so.

[AllentownJake]

27. They'll hit them with the 50% penalty

Regardless. No matter what kind of a deal that Obama may make with them.

[Kittycat]

30. May 20th. It's done.

[Arrowhead2k1]

12. Who are these backbone lacking Super Delegates?

Do they not care about the party? They have to power to end this right now. What are they waiting for? More division?!
Everyone with half a brain can see that Obama will be the nominee now. Enough is enough!

[SoonerPride]

15. I heard Donna Brazile on NPR today. She won't declare until it is over

She likes Clinton and Obama and won't declare until the race is officially over.

Same with Edwards, Gore, Carter, Pelosi, Reid, etc.

They will stay out of it

[MadBadger]

17. Pelosi will effectively declare on May 20.

She is the leader of the Pelosi Club. A group of ten or so that will endorse the pledged delegate winner.

[Alhena]

14. No, most of the elected official SDs left just don't want to offend anyone

they won't commit until their rear ends are covered to the greatest extent possible- after Hillary withdraws or June if she doesn't and the party pressures them to decide.

[4themind]

16. "Shock and Awe"

I hate that term too, from overuse but that's what they need here. A huge drop, to get this closer to a conclusion. It's a race designed to reach a certain number of delegates and whoever makes it, wins, whether it be from help from superdelegates, or from other prior states as in so many years past. Some may feel "left out" but if they don't see the overall benefit to the party, then they're free to go to another party or form their own party, or try and change the Democrats from the inside.

[WeDidIt]

18. FL and MI will only get half votes

No way does the DNC not punish them.

They'll get full delegations as laid out by you, but only one-half vote each.

[SoonerPride]

22. That is OK.

I just foresee the numbers being such that the supers move the goalline so close that his victory in Oregon clinches the deal.

I don't foresee the supers waiting to be the ones to officially put him over the top and leaving Hillary supporters feeling cheated. It will be won in a voting contest and the press will play up how he won the nomination with votes, not super delegates.

Super Delegate Bomb. tick tock tick tock.

[Quixote1818]

20. I wonder if Obama will now win West Virginia

I still don't think he will win Kentucky but enough W. Virginia people might back Obama to help him seal the deal since they know Hillary can't win.

[PM7nj]

21. No way in hell...

W. VA is like Pennsylvania but without Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

[SoonerPride]

24. Nope. It will be a sizeable win for Hillary

Tailor made for her in the primary and she will win.

Too bad it's not a big state that matters to her.

[grantcart]

23. **** ZOGBY SAYS 30 SDS IN NEXT 2 DAYS

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7387919.stm

[SoonerPride]

25. I saw that too.

Maybe 30 Friday morning and 50 Monday morning??

Bang
Bang!

The end.

[grantcart]

28. If they can do 30 in two days that will be it

[grantcart]

26. Obama has picked up 12 SDs in 3 days

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5874054

[wileedog]

31. The SDs don't want to be seen as influencing the election in EITHER way

This is the good and the bad news for Hillary. They won't end it early, but neither will they turn the whole thing over at the end.

[thewiseguy]

32. Thats false

150+ superdelegates came out for Hillary before the primaries even started.

[grantcart]

33. you are correct but that is when it was a woman and 7 guys

now that it is one woman and an AA they don't want to be seen moving against somebody in a key constituency. If it had been a white male he would have been picked clean by now.

[SoonerPride]

34. But they'll have to move at some point, one way or the other.

Push her out now or push her out later, what's the difference?

They will decide and they will not side with her.

Right?