What's taking the superdelegates so long?

[calmblueocean]

Seriously, I don't get it. What do they gain by drawing this out? Are they terrified of crossing Hillary? Are they closet racists? Are they too vain to give up all the attention?

I'm not just talking about today. Hillary's been mathematically excluded from winning for weeks now. So what's the hold up?

[msongs]

1. you mean like kerry/kennedy who betrayed their state's voters by endorsing obama? nt

[SoCalDem]

6. Some of them are probably congresspeople who are running for re-election

in November (another reason why SDs are a bad idea to start with)..

if you are from a conservative area ...in a tight race..and your people voted for Hillary, you MIGHT be hesitant to vote your own conscience

Hillary is DARING the SDs to throw her out.. She KNOWS that enough of them COULD make him the official candidate, but she also knows many will be afraid to face their people in the fall if they voted for her..

the people she has been courting lately are the VERY types of people who are noted for their thinking skills..

[stillcool]

9. I live in Massachusetts...

and my county went for Obama. There are plenty of super-delegates in my state that endorsed Clinton, and there are I think 6 left that are still uncommitted.

[Kittycat]

2. They're giving her a grace period.

No one wants to look like they're shoving her out of the door. I expect to see a constant trickle of delegates from here on out, for Obama. Today he picked up 4 - tomorrow another 3-5 I'm sure - Friday some more. Then they'll start again on Monday.

[Boz]

3. There not giving her a grace period, they know if they close before the close of voting she will

just whine louder and justify her BS to the convention.

When the voting is over the jacket goes on and she gets carted off where she can't hurt anyone anymore.

[Bucky]

8. That's my hypothesis, too. I don't think it's planned out, however.

Some just don't want to take sides because they have their own campaign funds to raise. That's legit. Others may be genuinely torn. Donna Brazile & Rahm Emmanuel are two examples of leaders with long associations with & respect for the Clintons, but after painful deliberation had to decide the time wasn't really ripe for her.

[LVjinx]

10. Trying to force her out would be a disaster

It sounds as though she's dropped the more controversial aspect of her campaign and is instead focusing on building voter enthusiasm. When she ultimately endorses Obama (let's consider the "She's gonna endorse McCain" crowd to be lunatics) at least three quarters of that "will never vote for Obama" vote will follow her.

In terms of voter turn out, voter registration, voter enthusiasm, it's well worthwhile for her to remain in. What would be a nightmare is if she were perceived by her supporters to have been unfairly pushed out. After all, she does have about 1700 delegates. Throwing crap at someone who has that kind of a following among democratic voters would be a recipe for disaster in November.

[Cosmocat]

11. BO called Indiana for Hill last night ...

He called Indiana for Hill during his NC speech, while all the networks still had him having a real shot at getting the win there ...

He is SO wise beyond his years ... He knows this has to come down in a controlled manner, for 100 different reasons ...

A day is a year in politics, whether she bows out in two weeks or four, that still is a LONG time before the convention ...

[MindMatter]

13. Wisdom is an understatement.

I'm trying to think of one single thing he has done really badly in this campaign. One really lousy decision. I can't come up with any really. There were a few lines in debates that could have been phrased a little better. The comments in SF were too easy to twist out of context. But the main things that were bad in his campaign were Swift Boat jobs out of his control, and his response to those was wise.

His instincts are unbelievably good. He seems to think 10 steps ahead of everybody else. The tip of Indiana to Hillary was just one of many brilliant strokes. It makes no difference at all if he won by 2 points or lost by 2 points. It was one lousy delegate. While the press and Clinton cap are still laboring away in some artificial universe that has winner-takes-all rules, Obama has been able to keep the right perspective on this every step of the way.

The press still says Clinton won TX, but "scoreboard". In fact Obama won because he walked away with the bacon. And where my natural instinct would be to fight everybody who said Hillary won Texas, Obama has the wisdom to just nod and smile. He had the end game figured out months ago.

In a party full of dolts that are uniformly outsmarted by the GOP, it seems there is only one guy who has it figured out.

This is one cool and shrewd dude. I don't know what he has in store for the GOP machine this fall, but I know I want to be part of it.

[AllentownJake]

4. There won't be a bomb

It will be a small stream of 4-5. There's a calculation being made what it will take to give Obama the nomination on May 20th.

[Yukari Yakumo]

14. And a few are waiting for 1618. {nt}

uguu

[MindMatter]

15. And at 5-10 a day it will be over quickly

It is already hopeless for Clinton. And considering that there are a few defections every day now, we may have already seen "Peak Hillary". I bet she never reaches 280 superdelegates.

[Bucky]

5. I suggest you consider Occam's Razor before formulating theories.

Always look for the simpler answer.

What do they gain by drawing this out?

Many supers are elected officials, so they're running for reelection. If you hold a fundraiser right after disappointing all the Clinton or all the Obama supporters in your election district--especially in such a highly charged year like this--you run the risk of alienating a large base of potential donors. That ain't smart.



Are they terrified of crossing Hillary?

There's no evidence to suggest this. Certainly if they're only holding back out of fear of Clinton, they're running out of reason to fear.



Are they closet racists? Are they too vain to give up all the attention?

At this point in your post, you're just murdering kittens.

[bbinacan]

7. The SDs want the candidates

to "show me the money"!

[featherman]

12. Not a bloc vote... each makes their own decision

[mcctatas]

16. I think many of them are giving hillary a chance to make a

legitimate argument for why she can win and they haven't heard it yet. Also, there's a meeting in DC tonite between Hillary and many of the unpledged SD's, I think it may turn out to be something of a "Hail Mary" moment for her. My guess is that by the end of the week they will start to move for Obama...

[ORDem]

17. Why shouldn't they wait at this point? They know that on 5/20 Obama's got the pledged del. majority

which gives the voters the say in this election. At that point they can seal the deal without stepping on voters' toes. This is especially dicey for SDs who are elected officials in districts that could swing GOP. They may want to declare for Obama, but if their district went for Clinton they are going to hold back until Obama captures the pledged delegate lead once and for all (i.e., no mathematical possibility for Hillary).

:dem: