If Obama is our nominee, we have a lot of work to do...

[Texas Hill Country]

this guy ran 10,000 different scenarios between Obama and McCain... it goes thru all the methodology and everything... it is really very interesting...

The scary part is this: Obama wins only 10.4% of the time vs McCain.

http://hominidviews.com/?p=1504


meanwhile, when you run 10,000 simulations with Clinton vs McCain, Clinton wins 75.8% of the time.

http://hominidviews.com/?p=1503


This is not a flame, this is just informational. This is the reason I supported Clinton.

Please dont start yelling.

[redqueen]

1. Oh good Lord.

*sigh*

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Can I join you?

[redqueen]

9. But of course...

*sigh*

[QueenOfCalifornia]

34. Me three

I mean.. come on.

We have a lot of work to do.

:cry:

[Lisa0825]

3. Puhleeze

:popcorn:

[Texas Hill Country]

4. did you bother to even look at it?

[Lisa0825]

7. I skimmed it.

It's meaningless. I am so sick of the "Hillary can win but Barack can't" meme. Hillary can't even win her own party.

[Stop Cornyn]

18. but ... but ... but ... Republicans all LOVE Hillary and will cross over to support her!!!

[sudopod]

43. What do you want?

A cookie?

[anonymous171]

5. I don't doubt it. As with any dem, we have to fight both the GOP and the media.

It won't be easy, but I'm positive that Obama will win it.

[SKKY]

6. Please, for the love of all that's good...

...tell me you don't believe this crap at this early stage, right? Tell me you're smarter than that.

[Texas Hill Country]

8. just saying that it is a scary prospect.

[Henryman]

36. Are you really scared? After the last 8 years?

[gravity]

10. It's too early

These predictions are meaningless at the moment, when we haven't even started campaigning for the general election yet.

A lot will change during this time period

[TragedyandHope]

11. Yes, we do have a lot of work to do

Anyone who thought the Primaries were bad will be in for a shock when we get into the General Election. With 80% of Americans unhappy about the direction the country has gone over the past 8 years, the Rethugs are desperate. This will undoubtedly be one of the ugliest races in recent memory.

We must be ready to stay strong and keep positive. It's not going to be easy, but Obama has our backs and we have to look out for him at every step.

Nothing worthwhile is ever easy.

[Texas Hill Country]

16. agreed, this will be a VERY ugly election cycle because the repubs have nothing to loose

[BlooInBloo]

12. Your concern is noted.

[QueenOfCalifornia]

35. I am adding this

to my diary too.

Dear Diary.

Today BlooInBloo was concerned.

Love,
Gilligan

:hi:

[onenote]

13. 10,000 simulations, all based on polls taken before we even know who the VP is

before any presidential debates, before god only knows what else.

Here's a wild guess. At this same point in time, I bet 10,000 out of 10,000 simulations would've shown Dukakis getting elected.

[Terran]

14. Finding this hard to credit

partly because the polls used seem to cover a mixture of time periods...like adding apples and oranges and coming with all apples. Anyway...there's a looooong time until the GE. But your basic assertion is right: we do have a lot of wrok to do, regardless.

[skipos]

15. We are DOOOOOOOOOOMED!

Surely the superdelegates will save us from the candidate who has won more votes, more states and more delegates?!?

I say we get McCain/Hillary on a joint ticket, and keep anyone else from running. That ticket would definitely win, and we should only care about winning.

[bhikkhu]

17. If he ran 10000 primary scenarios last December...

How many do you suppose would have Obama winning the primary?

All this type of thing ignores the effects of actually campaigning, and I think in the GE ignores the huge difference in voter turnouts we have seen, giving any Dem a built in advantage over any repug.

electoral-vote.com is, I think, a more useful site for this type of projection.

[Cant trust em]

23. If there's anything that we've seen in the last few months

it's that Obama has some ability to make up ground where he had none before.

[bhikkhu]

42. That's pretty much where I "joined up"

in Iowa, where all the candidates had time, good exposure and a level playing field, Obama outmatched the field. He won by talent, determination, and honesty; and the more he was able to campaign the more he was liked. Against all odds, one might add.

[Shakespeare]

19. "this is just informational"

Riiiiight. :eyes:

[FlyingSquirrel]

20. I DID bother to look at it...

The first thing I looked at was OH and PA. I saw that this guy somehow projected McCain winning Ohio 92.5% of the time, and PA 99.8% of the time.

I decided that this person was clearly out of touch with reality, since both are swing states and there is no way either candidate should win those states with more than, perhaps, 55-60% probability.

So I didn't look any further and discounted the analysis.

[Cant trust em]

21. I appreciate the post, but any GE polls at this point are premature

Obama has to deal with two people taking shots at him. Clinton only has one. It's just too early to be worried about this.

[spanone]

22. looks like the clintons are out to destroy the democratic party imho

[lurky]

24. GIGO.

All the statistical modeling software in the world will not help you if the datasets you feed it are incomplete, speculative, and/or outdated.

[dchill]

32. " * denotes that an older poll was used"

in 21 of the 50 states. Just another hack looking for a "good" reason...

[mkultra]

25. i think his numbers are wrong.

Obama will take some of the southern states. Thats what gives hime the ability to beat McCain. McCain is weak in the south.

One good example of incorrect math would be Indiana. Obama has always beaten McCain in this state but this guy has it solid red.

[LowerManhattanite]

26. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

[susankh4]

27. Let's all just *Hope*

that this guy is full of it.

Of course, we can tell ourselves that he is a statistics spouting nutcase, but that won't make it so.

Hope is by far the better option, now that we are painted into this corner....

[DMorgan]

28. No, I respect your thread topic...........Clinton MIGHT win against McCain...

more often but I don't respect a lot of positions of Hillary, gas tax panders, etc etc.........I find Obama the better person.

So ........I respect there's a problem here, with so many dumb Southern McCain voters........we need to work to resolve this, to allow the best Candidate to compete reasonably against McCain and beat him.

I'm fearful too, Kerry didn't think he had a problem, but he did......let's get these things settled soon.......

Thanks for this thread......we need to be looking ahead to our problems as Dems this fall.

By the way, I think the resentment of Hillary in many NORTHERN states as well, would have just been the SAME problems, just different states. I live in a state north of the Mason Dixon line where Hillary is NOT liked at all.

[Dr Fate]

29. Then may I suggest that you get to work?

Thank you.

[Radical Activist]

30. Subtract part of the black vote and anti-war vote if Hillary is the nominee.

That makes her a guaranteed loser.

[cali]

31. this is so utterly idiotic

it's scarcely worth commenting on, but...

Look, the variable that will be in play in November are myriad and largely unknowable. What we do know is that Obama ran a brilliant campaign in the primary and there's every reason to believe that he'll do so in the general.

[JackORoses]

33. damned pathetic

Please tell me you weren't born in Texas.

"This is the reason I supported Clinton."

'Supported' is past tense. I see you have accepted her fate.

[FrenchieCat]

37. You are really trying too hard.......

The only issue in reference to Barack Obama is his "race". And that shouldn't be a discussion that the Democratic party should be having.

I am deeply dissappointed that you continue to push that superdelegates should overturn pledge delegates, which is the only thing you are pushing at this point.

Shame on you.

[leftofcool]

38. "superdelegates should overturn pledge delegates"

That is not going to happen. Al Sharpton said so and has already said there will be riots if it does.

[stillcool]

39. what do "you" say?

is that something you're advocating?

[lojasmo]

40. Good christ. "IF" ???

[David__77]

41. No yelling. It'll be hard work no matter what.

They are difficulties that can be surmounted. Few pundits thought the Democrats would take both houses in 2006 though. We can shift the paradigm in our favor starting now.

[jbm]

44. Obamabots hate reality posts..

but I like them. Thanks for the links.

[Asgaya Dihi]

45. Did it cover what's been changing recently?

Last I heard the repubs are in a little bit of a panic over the loss of a seat in Louisiana. A district that had been repub for about 30 years and where the dem could be connected to Obama so they tried all their general election tactics there as a test run.

They lost the seat, and I doubt many could have predicted that one. Things are changing, people are getting tired of personality issues and wanting to hear about real ones instead. Look at how the gas tax issue played out, the public read it as a stunt that would just leave road repairs undone. That wouldn't have happened a few years ago, they wouldn't have thought it through that far.

I'm a pessimist by nature and haven't given us but a 20% chance to win under either candidate for quite a while now but recently I'm getting more optimistic. Obama is better than I thought he was or the public is getting smarter, maybe some combination of the two. I give us maybe even odds these days, depends some on how fast we can get to work educating the public on who McCain really is and how much the media resists that effort. If they catch the winds shifting and go along with us it's an easy win.