"Electability" ?

[kentuck]

Hillary says she has it and Obama doesn't. She can win the black vote and the new voters that Obama got in the primaries but Obama cannot win the women or the white folks votes that she got in the primaries?? Or is she saying that she does not need the black folks or the new voters to win? Just what is this "electability"?

This seems to be the latest argument being made to the super delegates? Obama cannot win those white folks votes in NY or CA or FL or PA that she won? He cannot win those blue-collar voters in the swing states, she says. But she can.

If Obama has the majority of the popular vote, has won most delegates, has won the most states, then what is his constituency worth? Are they worth less than the "blue-collar" voters that Hillary got? Or are they taken for granted that they will support the nominee no matter who it is?

"Electability" is a hard issue to sell. And even more difficult to prove. If Obama is elected President, we could argue that Hillary would have done better? If Hillary were elected, we could argue that Obama would have lost. In my opinion, there is not a lot of logic in the argument.

But this seems to be the last arrow in the quiver. Every other argument has failed. Now, they will say that Obama is not "electable". He cannot get the votes needed to win the general election. But Hillary can? The black voters are the most loyal Democrats. They will vote for Hillary if Obama is not the nominee, no matter if they feel the election is stolen from him.

All those new voters, who are only involved in politics because of Barack Obama will remain interested in the Party, even if Obama is no longer the candidate, and will vote for Hillary in the General Election? But all those white folks, including those blue collar workers, will not vote for Obama. They will vote for McCain or sit out the election. How much credibility should we give this argument?

[democrattotheend]

1. There will be some white voters who don't vote for him

You can't argue with that. In Philly on election day, I met a guy not much older than me (late 20's, early 30's) who was the blue-collar ethnic type (probably Italian, based on the neighborhood). He and I talked about the election for 15 minutes, and I thought I had made progress with him, but at the end he said he just couldn't see himself going to the voting booth and pulling the lever for a black man. He said his grandmother would disown him. He claimed he wasn't racist, but asked "don't you think we give black people enough for free in this country?"

It was a real eye-opener for me, having rarely witnessed such overt racism in my life before. Obama is going to lose some votes from "Reagan Democrats" like this guy (and he insisted he was a Democrat) for no other reason than the color of his skin and that's something we have to accept. It's why as thrilled as I am I am also terrified. We as Democratic activists, especially those of us who helped Obama get this far, have an obligation to the party and to the country to work our asses off from now until November to register new voters, convert undecideds, and drive up turnout on election day. It's not going to be easy, and we need to fight harder than we've fought in this primary if we want to have a prayer in November.

[kentuck]

2. But don't we have those types of voters in every election?

Wouldn't there be some gun owners that would not vote for the Democratic nominee? Or the "anti-abortion" folks that refuse to vote for the Democratic nominee? Or the anti-gay folks that refuse to vote for the Democratic nominee? IS it really any different this time? Is it on a larger scale? If Obama could retain 3 out of 4 of the Hillary voters, he could add those to the large turnout by black voters and the new voters that have joined his campaign. Does anyone think that would not be enough to win?

On the other hand, if Hillary were to take 3 out of 4 of the black voters that voted for Obama, would she do that well with the new voters? It seems that Hillary would lose more of the Democratic flock than Obama?

[Bread and Circus]

3. I agree with your skepticism. Their logic calls into question the whole primary process itself...

Why go through this multi-million dollar, 15 month long voting process if all we had to do was "take a poll" of white voters?

In other words, don't listen to the voters, listen to polls and made up projections of what people "will believe and think" come November.

I wish I had their crystal ball.

[kentuck]

4. Absolutely!

They must have a crystal ball?