Why Obama can win in the South

[sktmax]

This is in response to the question posted earlier: Can Obama Win in the South?

In Louisiana
Obama won 57% Clinton 22%

Check out Louisiana exit poll stats here:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#LADEM


In my opinion, the reason most polls flip flop so much prior to each primary election is that the people taking the polls conduct them with specific restricted criteria to fit the message that they want to portray. For example, one poll that showed Clinton winning in IN had a very small written statement at the bottom of their page stating that they did not poll blacks,and younger voters. I had found this poll on a website that posted the link to the poll and that is the only reaon that I would have known how the poll was conducted. I can't find the link, but it's an example of one reason why Clinton's numbers often look better than what they actually are. Who they poll and how is important but never mentioned in the media reports i.e cnn, msnbc, fox.

Also, I understand that they have sofisticated technology, but when you only poll 500 people (for example) in a state that has millions of people, I can't logically see how the poll is accurate. Another thing about internet polls is this: CNN polls for example often conduct polls on their website:(Who do you vote for). How many times do you think one person could click/reclick on the candidate or issue they support? daily? Cnn (for example) will then brodcast those poll results without any ability to support it's accuracy.(IndyStar also conducted such a poll: (Who do you vote for) I went to that site daily and watched Clinton's numbers go up up up. Indy star, I assume were wanting the people in that area to vote, but with the ease of the set anyone one from anywhere could click/reclick to choose the person they support.

Is Wright and issue? is a question that's often polled ( example in IN and NC), but no one ever asks how Wright is an issue for Obama. The assumption is that Wright is a negative issue. But for some, Wright is a positive issue for Obama when people vote for him b/c they are upset about the mistreatment, bashing, media unfairness (for example MSNBC carrying the Wright documentary 3 days straignt). Obama (Rev.Wright) received drastically more media coverage than Hillary Clinton and in my opinion, it helped Obama for these reasons 1) descent objective people of all races, genders, etc., were able to see the negative bias of the media and some were compationate 2) mixed in the negative coverage was Obama's positive messages of which people could relate to 3) people could no longer claim they did not know Obama or what his campaign issues were 3)it angered and empowered the black vote. Hillary's strongest campaign yet was her support of the gas tax. The media killed her chances of getting a more positive response to her message becasue mixed in their oveplaying of Obam/Wright issues, they were continuously playing and replaying Obama's hammering in over and over that it was pandering. They got Obama's message, not Hillary's.

My opinion is that what some people fail to realize also is that unless things change drastically, Obama will continue to win the largest number of young votes , biggest majority of all black votes, coupled with 32 to 35 percent per state of white votes (based on previous elections)in all other categories,could and should be enough for comfortable victory in winning the presidential election(51%).

The media and Clinton supporters keep emphazising that Obama is winning because of the "black vote". This is true, but what is not emphasized is what they don't want to talk about. Any candidate can win with a "split" black vote plus large percentage of all others but when a candidate carries the Large percentage of Black Votes that Obama tends to carry Plus the Minimum Average 32 to 35 percent in all other categories, no other candidate can win the presidential election without the black vote. This is why OBAMA CAN WIN.

Hillary Clinton Can't Win because she and Bill abandoned the all important vast majority of the black vote. Consider what her win percentage might have been in IN., if she had been able to split the black vote. It will be difficult for Bill and Hillary Clinton to ever recapture this audience. Blacks, in the same manner, as many people of all races are proud of Obama's accomplishments, identifiy with his past and share his vision, but blacks also view the manner in which they (Hillary and Bill) have attacked Obama as betrayal. Bill Clinton himself understood the very significant importance of the black vote becasue "they" are why he was able to seal the democratic nomination and they are the reasons that he was able to win both elections, especially the second time around. Hillary has no chance of recapturing the majority black vote, which she desperately would need at this point in order to make significant increases in her numbers to support continuing in the primaries. Just this morning, I heard that one official from West Virginia has alread remarked that the big win in NC (a neighboring state) would have a drastic negative impact on her gaining significantly in West Virginia. The assumption is that a large % of white supporters will abandon her b/c they can no longer see how she will win. They'll split the vote between Obama and McCain or not vote at all. For those who don't vote at all, it will not significantly effect Obama's chance of winning becasue it will already have been factored outiside the minimum 32 to 35% that he needs to win. Those who don't vote will significantly negatively effect McCain because he needs all he can get because of the significant defection of the younger white vote (to Obama)that Rebublicans have been able to count on in the past.

Clinton supporters who decide to vote for McCain versus Obama may not drastically effect Obama's chances of winning the presidential election but the risk is that those who defect to the republicans, may never return, negatively effecting the Democratic party in future presidential elections and state and local elecitons all over the U.S. as well. Obama, might not necessarily lose becasue of these voters, but his race will be significantly more difficult. Thus in my opinion it is the responsibility of the Superdelegates, Barack Obama, and Hillary Clinton to work together to find solutions to end the politicalwar and heal the party. Simple rhetoric, is not enough.

In my opinion, this is the delimma of the Democratic superdelgates. Black Superdelegates need black supporters plus some whites to keep their jobs. White Supergelegates need white supporters plus some blacks to keep their jobs. Whether or not it's legitimate,one group dosen't want to be seen as being racially prejudiced against blacks and the other group doesn't want to be seen as supporting a candidate simply because he's black. I call it the Great Divide: The sad reality of this United States of America.

First and foremost, I am a Democrat,I am an Obama Supporter, previous B.Clinton Supporter and would be happy to Support H.Clinton if she were to be the democratic nominee.

I am a 46 year old black female. This may not be well written. I don't know much about politics.

Based on my own personal exeperiences in life, his is my just opinion.

In the end, What will make the Democratic Party be able to say Yes We Can is Unity.