Can Obama win the South??

[kentuck]

If you look at the states that he has run and competed in, he has won all of them except TN. We all recall the massacre in SC where he won by such a large majority. And it is not just black voters. Although over 90% of black voters are supporting him. He won GA with 40% of the white vote. That is the 9th largest state in the nation in population, with NC being #10. Almost a million and half Democrats voted in NC last night! It almost makes one dream of the impossible. Can Obama win the South? Can he win SC, NC, GA, AL, MS, or LA, or VA, in the general election? I am not ready to write it off, contary to all the "racist" arguments about the South.

[BlooInBloo]

1. Of course not. The newly-realigned Democratic Party will expand its electoral votes...

in the west. Let the bigots rock on. We don't need them.

[SteveM]

16. Labeling whole areas of our country "bigoted" is what gets Democrats in trouble...

We engage in culture war as much as the far right of the GOP. When Lady Bird Johnson died, some of the remembrances were newsreels showing her on a tour through the deep South. A lot of folks didn't like that, but it muted the racial backlash enough to where LBJ carried Florida and the "upper" South. She was quite dignified, respectful and brave.

[onehandle]

18. Nice. "We" don' t need them, huh. I'm a Democrat. What the Hell are you? nt

[BlooInBloo]

21. Someone who doesn't need bigots, just like I said. Duh.

[paulk]

60. McCain cancels the "western strategy" -

he is a westerner, he'll appeal to the military and retirees, and he'll pull enough votes from independents and libertarian leaning Democrats to put him over the top in the mountain west and negate the gains we've been making here, IMHO.

This makes the big swing states like Ohio and Florida the real battlegrounds of this election, just like last time.

[BlooInBloo]

64. No he doesn't. It's not even clear that he'll carry his own state.

[paulk]

66. come on -

make a fucking argument at least.

burying your head in the sand doesn't win elections.

my god - talking to some of you people on this board is like talking to a five year old.

[book_worm]

2. I think he can be competitive in Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, and Texas

Texas Rasmussen poll had Obama only 5-pts behind McCain. He's neck and neck in Florida according to Quinnipiac and some polls have shown him within striking distance in VA and NC. The huge black vote in SC may make him competitive there.

[grantcart]

10. Georgia

[onehandle]

22. Hopefully, Florida. Maybe Virginia and Georgia. Not a chance on the rest. nt

[Carrieyazel]

39. But he won't win any of them. And South Carolina is the most conservative state

in this country. I wouldn't put it in with those three other states.

[Radical Activist]

3. With a Southern running mate he could get one or two Southern States.

That would ensure a victory.

[SteppingRazor]

4. Probably not. But what he can do is force McCain to spend a lot of money there...

to keep it non-competitive. Thus, limiting McCain's resources in swing states farther north, thus giving Obama a more-likely win in places like the Mountain West and Great Plains.

[DevonRex]

8. Brilliant analysis. Thank you. nt

[Quixote1818]

23. Especially if McCain has a lot less money than Obama

which is likely. He could really put McCain in a bind.

[SteppingRazor]

38. Exactly. And McCain will almost definitely have less money.

Whether you're for Hillary or Obama, one thing you have to concede as impressive is Obama's ability to raise money like gangbusters from hundreds of thousands of small donors -- hell, more than 1.5 million donors, as of yesterday.

[Phillycat]

5. No, but it's a little late to worry about that now, isn't it?

:rofl:

We gots what we gots, my good man. :shrug: :D

[Zynx]

6. Simply put, no.

The White Democratic vote is an entirely different animal than the white vote in general in the south. There's nothing in the vote from the primaries to suggest Obama would dent the 75% to 85% share of the white vote the Republicans rack up in the South. Sure, he has been able to capture 35%-40% of white Democrats in the South, but they are only about a quarter to a third at most of all whites in the South. A large black vote is not enough.

[MadBadger]

7. Virginia and North Carolina are in play this year I think. Especially if Jim Webb is on the ticket.

[Carrieyazel]

45. No, they won't be in play. But closer than other states in the region.

[MadBadger]

49. As of April 10th, He led Obama by 5 in NC and as of the 13th, by 8 in VA

The Democratic Nominee will still get a bump out of becoming the nominee and things will get a little closer there.

[civildisoBDence]

9. Southern whites voted for Obama in larger numbers than white voters in

some Northeastern and Midwestern states. So much for the stereotypes.

I think Obama can win some Southern states, which would make him hard to beat nationally.

The key will be turnout--and blacks and liberals are energized by Obama, while conservatives are lukewarm for McCain...

http://www.newsprism.com">Newsprism

[kentuck]

13. I agree.

There are a lot of stereotypes here. It would be a very nice development if he did win 3 or 4 Southern states. I think it is very possible.

[Carrieyazel]

33. Yes, but in Democratic primaries. This is going to be a general election.

[DMorgan]

40. People that vote in primaries show up at General ELections, too

And Republicans who don't like McCain, won't show.

[Roxy66]

11. Possibly....look at the number of Dems voting compared to GOP voters.

Polls will show differently....but the number of supporters going to the polls will make the difference

[stray cat]

12. GA, NC maybe Arkansas - the south west as well

[kentuck]

14. And what about the Democrat that won in LA the other day?

A very red district - Republican for the last 33 years. It can be done.

[Ytzak]

15. He doesn't have to.

He has a good shot at Florida and Michigan. He will win New York and California, all of New England, Washingtn and Oregon. A good turn out of Democrats more interested in stopping the Supreme Court form moving even farther to the left, Democrats interested in health care, Democrats interested in ending the War, and Democrats interested in saving what's left of the economy and we have an excellent chance of taking enough electoral votes to bring the election home.

[TBF]

17. Texas will be tough, but I could see him getting Virginia

particularly due to Richmond, Hampton, and Northern Virginia. I could also see him competitive in NC and SC. The others will be more difficult.

[stillcool]

19. I think this General Election..

much like this Primary will be like nothing we have ever seen. When I stop and think about where Obama is right now, it takes my breath away. The idea that Obama is unelectable because he is black, has been repeated so many times that people are believing it. It's pretty sad. Kind of like the War in Iraq, where people believed what was fed them day after day, for months on end. I think that the only demographic that matters is internet usage. If it is to be it is up to we.

[OzarkDem]

35. The GE is a real election, not a caucus

Obama doesn't do well in real elections. Most of the momentum he developed early on was due to his ability to manipulate state caucuses to his benefit. He won't be able to use that trick in the GE.

[Tesha]

37. You never give up, do you? Are you *SURE* you're at the right board? (NT)

[OzarkDem]

41. I want a Dem who can win the GE

Sorry, but I'm not into cult candidates. I have enough experience in the political realm to know those don't work out well for Dems.

[DMorgan]

43. Well then, YOU and a few hundred thousand of your DEM buddies ....

Will have to go out and vote for Obama!

[Tesha]

51. '...because Hillary has driven her negatives into record terrain during her campaign. (NT)

[OzarkDem]

59. Clinton is the winning candidate against McCain

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May07.html

Obama has an uphill struggle with the odds stacked against him.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May07.html

[Bullet1987]

20. I think he could put states with the largest AA populations in play

like SC, Alabama, and Georgia. But white Democrats may work against him in the South by voting for McCain...we have to wait and see.

[Dhalgren]

55. No way he will win Alabama.

The down-ticket Republicans are already running anti-Obama ads on teevee and radio down here. They think that the best attack against their Democratic opponent is to attack Obama. That doesn't sound too good for Obama, generally, IMO. Too many white racists in Alabama, even if most of them won't admit it...

[kentuck]

56. Didn't work in LA the other day, did it?

And the Repubs spent a lot of money in that LA race.

[Dhalgren]

67. If you are talking Louisiana - that ain't Alabama.

Republicans win in Alabama all the time. I think that there is a couple of states that simply will not go Democratic in November, and Alabama is one of them. We can disagree all day long, but I will still say that Alabama will go Republican in November. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. The black vote in this state is just not large enough to counter the redneck vote...sorry...

[Secret_Society]

24. HIGHLY doubt he can take any southern state

don't even think Virginia is in play maybe in a couple of years though

[kdpeters]

25. The important thing is that he will definitely be competitive in the south

using up time and resources in areas once considered to be in the bag for the Republicans. I live in Georgia so I'm holding out hope that we can deliver for Obama in the fall.

Gobama!!

[kentuck]

32. I think GA has the potential to surprise.

Not every white person in GA is a racist. And not every racist will vote for McCain. :-)

[Carrieyazel]

42. I don't think it does. But I do agree with your words below the subject.

[Carrieyazel]

53. Only in a couple of southern states. But "competitive" isn't enough to win

or even put the state in play. It's not the same as "battleground", a state where he would have a real shot to win.

[leftofcool]

26. No

[OzarkDem]

27. No, no chance

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May07.html

[shayes51]

28. no

[Gore1FL]

29. Some of it

NC, VA, and SC are in play. Depedning on turnout you might see LA or MS make the GOP nervous.

Of course with Obama, the west is in play as well and if Sebelius is his VP, she'll help put the midwest in play.

[Carrieyazel]

30. No, he won't win a single one. Not one. Same deal with Hillary.

VA, NC and FL will be more competitive than the others, because there are more affluent whites as well as middle/lower class. But not enough to be in play. Most southern whites will be voting against Obama in droves, and his support will be easily outnumbered statewide.

Obama will be like Kerry 2.0, in that the south is completely written off. We've already given away an entire region, AGAIN.

[DMorgan]

47. Does anyone have any state by state polls? or...

Do we make this up as we go along?

[MadBadger]

57. From a month ago, down 8 in VA and 5 in NC

[DMorgan]

58. Thanks for some actual DATA! But .......who has a crystal ball about polls not changing in

six more months?

Someone got that crystal ball handy?

[democrattotheend]

50. I think he can put Virginia and Florida in play

Maybe North Carolina too. A lot of people think Virginia could flip this year, and a Quinnipiac poll last week showed Obama has a chance in Florida. He didn't win NC last night by winning the white vote...he won by driving up his margin among black voters, and bringing new people into the process. That's how he kept Indiana close as well. He's been successful all year at bringing new voters in and that could really make a difference.

[Connie_Corleone]

31. He has a good chance in Georgia. Maybe Virginia

[Tesha]

36. Depends whether NoVA can overcome rest-of-VA. (NT)

[Tesha]

34. Nope. No actual Democrat can. (NT)

[kentuck]

44. I think that is being a little too pessimistic...

The West is really more "Republican" than the South. If Democrats can win in places like CO and MT, they can win in the South also.

[Tesha]

48. The West is more Libertarian; the South is just racist, anti-gay, anti-woman, etc.

(BTW, I'd love to be proven wrong in November, but I'll
bet that I won't be.)

Tesha

[kentuck]

54. I hear their favorite phrase down there is:

"Squeal like a pig, Boy!"

[Island Blue]

46. Yes.

I think he can win at least North Carolina and Virginia, and maybe more. My guess is, the folks who are saying "no" are either: A.) Hillary supporters or B.) Not from around here. ;)

[trof]

52. McCain will probably take AL, no matter who the Dem is.

Barring some major meltdown with McCain.

[madrchsod]

61. he`ll win enough to make a difference

that`s why this has to stop now. so much work to do and so little time to get it done

[wmbrew0206]

62. Porbably not, but for some different reasons

NC and SC: I don't think either will be in play because of the number of military bases in those two states. NC has Camp Lejeune (Marines), Ft Bragg (Army), Seymour Johnson (I'm not kidding about the name, Air Force). SC has Ft Jackson and Some spill over from Ft Stewart. These bases also have large retired military populations around them. This is a voting block that McCain does well with and will probably come close to equalizing some of the AA vote for Obama.

Florida: I would say that this is the one swing state that Obama will not win. The I-4 corridor normally decides which way Florida goes. This sets up well for McCain because a lot of retired military are in this area. I would also say that Obama might have some trouble with the Jewish vote in southeast Florida. I think the Rethugs are going to portray him as pro-Palestinian which could get some traction in this area. I also think that the Cuban vote will favor McCain unless Obama comes out hard against Castro.

LA: I hate to say it, but due to Katrina and the displaced residents, I don't see this happening.

GA, AL, MS, TN, TX, and Arkansas are all for McCain. (Count Arkansas out if Hillary or Clark is the VP).

Virginia is probably the best chance for Obama to win a southern state due to the amount of spill over from DC into N. Virginia.

I don't think that turn out of the democratic primaries over the republican in the south are that significant. There are a lot of conservative blue dog democrats who could go for a "moderate" like McCain. To simply assume that Obama has a shot to win in the south based off of democratic primaries is not reasonable.

[chyjo]

63. I would guess

That Virginia will be tight with a likely Obama win. NC will be a battleground state that will divert Republican funds. Georgia will probably stay Republican but may become battleground. Al, SC, MS, LA I don't see happening for any dem this time around.

[underpants]

65. Doesn't need to. Va will be in play but the Repubs are now the party of the South

and pretty much only the south

You don't need the south to be Prez. The Mountain West states are the new battleground (along with all the other familiar ones) that is why the convention is in Denver.