Check My Math

[NeedleCast]

If I'm adding things up right, Obama stretched the delegate lead by 19 last night, and the popular vote lead by about 220,000. That about right?

[Boz]

1. Give or take 3 delegates and 20 000 for Provisionals that are still being counted

in Indiana

[ChairmanAgnostic]

2. provisionals. sounds like an Irish cult.

[Kittycat]

3. Provisionals will lean toward Obama

He might pick up a few votes - nothing to change the outcome, but it will likely decrease the margin by a few thousand.

[FredScuttle]

4. I think it's more than that

not only does Obama have an insurmountable lead in every category (most importantly, pledged delegates), Hillary has pretty much run out of primaries to make up the difference:

http://www.americablog.com/2008/05/russert-its-over-for-hillary-she-lost.html

"NBC declares Hillary the winner, barely, in Indiana. Hillary may get one delegate more than Obama in Indiana. Chuck Todd says Obama will get 13 more delegates than Hillary tonight, and that wipes out the 12 delegates more than him that she got in Pennsylvania. Obama now has a pledged delegate lead of over 160, he's got a popular vote lead of over 700,000, per Todd

There is simply no path to victory for Hillary. Look at what Chuck Todd just said, again - even with Michigan and Florida, she has lost:
'With leads like this now, if you throw in Michigan and Florida, as is, then Obama would still have about 150,000 votes and he would still have 100 delegates, pledged delegate, lead.' - Chuck Todd"




Delegates:
Pledged 1,589.5(O)1,427.5(C)
Super 255(O) 269.5(C)
Total 1,844.5(O) 1,697(C)
Needed to clinch 180(O) 327.5(C)
Remaining 217 Pledged, 270.5 SD.....487.5 total



Conventional wisdom says Oregon will be the state to push Obama over the 2,024.5 mark and clinch the nomination in any scenario, even if including Michigan and Florida