Record Turnout, Registration, Fundraising, Enthusiasm and Change Vs. Stifled Yawns in McCainsville

[DrFunkenstein]

I've been saying this for a long time. The story of 2008 will be the story of 2004. It's all about turnout. No matter what the polls say, the electorate is going to be divided into two groups: people who get leave their snug home to vote and the people that don't.

One of the real benefits of the extended primary season, beyond making Obama a "seasoned" candidate with his toughest stories already out there to grow old, is that it has given him a chance to visit just about the entire country and introduce himself to people. And time and again, he has shown that generally the more people get to know him, the more they like him.

Hillary Clinton is perhaps the most formidable opponent in politics today. Going up against McCain is going to be like beating Mike Tyson and then fighting Glass Joe (people with old school Nintendo know what I'm talking about).

On the way, Obama has charged people up and rekindled their hopes in the possibilities of American democracy. He has seen record turnouts on his behalf and shattered fundraising records.

Meanwhile, the media - let alone the American people - can barely remember that McCain is even still around. From Vietnam to the 2000 election the Iraq occupation, he seems to represent yesterday incarnate, all faded glories and derailed straight talk and long, hard slogs.

Meanwhile, he is stuck between independents and conservatives. Whatever he does will piss off one or the other because the conservatives are in no mood to be played with. The GOP is in tatters. The best that they can hope for is to distract people about Rev. Wright for months and months.

What people seem to forget is that the problem of the Swiftboating was not the jerks behind it, but the Kerry campaigns complete failure to even acknowledge it for weeks. There will be no such mistakes this time around. And McCain's gaffes just keep piling up while no one pays attention.

Which is not a good thing for McCain. The gaffes don't hurt nearly as much as the yawns.

[Frances]

1. Interesting analysis

I like how you point out the advantages of our extended primary season.

I always thought it was far better for Obama to defeat Hillary at the ballot box rather than have her withdraw. Winning North Carolina and coming so close in Indiana is a much better story for Obama than if Hillary had just dropped out.

I think the MSM will do everything it can to ensure a McCain victory, so I don't think it will be easy for Obama to win. It will be a hard fought contest. But I am very happy that the Wright thing came out now as opposed to October.

[beachmom]

2. I think I"m the only one who thinks the Swiftboating was not a big factor in the outcome of 2004

Kerry's debate performances erased any loss in support from the swiftboating.

I 100% agree with you about turnout. Not only will Obama win the Electoral College, but he has the potential of winning the popular vote by a blow out. To be clear, the Electoral College is the most important. But the popular vote gives him the additional political capital to govern on his terms.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. -

[TragedyandHope]

4. Not doubt about it, this is a great year!