Can Obama Actually Win in November?

[kennetha]

It is PROBABLY over for Hillary -- though as long as she is still fighting, I will stand with her.

So the question now is whether Obama can actually win in November. I rather doubt it. Ask yourself when is the last time the nation elected a president with anything like his cultural and political profile. I do not mean his actual cultural and political profile, but his "perceived" profile. He has basically been effectively branded as already as an "effete liberal" and "cultural alien." Neither of those tags is at all fair, admittedly. But I think they have been cemented in the minds of millions of Reagan Democrats and I doubt that there is anything he can do to undo that branding.

Add to that that our apparent nominee has accomplished exactly zero in his very brief Senate career. He basically served in the Senate for 18 months before seeing the light and deciding that he was the salvation of politics in America. So he has almost nothing concrete to stand on. And despite the fact that the war is massively unpopular, we are still at war on two fronts. I can't think of a single thing that qualifies Obama to be commander in chief, not a single thing. The only thing he himself cites is the fact that he was against the war from the start. If the fact that he was against the war suffices, then I'm qualified to be commander in chief.

Look at it this way. What chance is there that Obama will actually exceed Kerry's vote total -- which as actually pretty high? I think zero. He's going to perform more like Dukakis.

I know Obama has aroused intense passions among a certain segment of our party. But I see no evidence -- none - that he has a message that can sell more generally.

If he's our nominee, he's in for a shellacking. This is especially true if we don't get Florida and Michigan back on board. At the moment, Obama can't even campaign in those two states. How could he? What could he say? "VOte for me in the general because I'm the man who is insisting that you have no say in the democratic primary process?" That's a real winner.

Apparently Clinton can't be nominated, but she could be elected. She'd be a formidable general election candidate. Obama is probably going to get the nomination. But it will be Dukakis all over again.

[jakem]

1. with all due respect... i think you are completely wrong.

[skipos]

2. Get ye to intrade and make yourself some money then.

Most people think Obama will be the next president. That's probably based on the fact that he does just as well, if not better, than Hillary against McCain in most general election polls.

[Thrill]

Oh give me a damn break. Dukakis wasn't nearly the candidate Obama is

And McCain isn't a good candidate. So stop the nonsense. Obama has also registered 3.5 million new voters in this country. No comparison with Dukakis.

[zanne]

12. Yup. Different candidate, different time.

Dukakis didn't run after eight years of George Bush. Bush has done more for the Democratic Party than JFK.

[PerpetuallyDazed]

146. funny & true

:rofl:

[kennetha]

21. Sorry but I disagree

Obama's "bitter" speech betrays exactly the same cultural tone-deafness that Dukakis betrayed in that debate when he was asked about his wife being raped. Obama gives a very good speech and he has a pleasing personal narrative. But he is more professorial than your average politician. He appeals to egg-heads (like me), the young (unlike me) and blacks (like me). But he seems to have almost no appeal beyond that.

I'm afraid he really is a loser!

[Thrill]

30. I would believe you if the Repukes had a good candidate

and if we weren't coming off of 8 yrs of Bush

[zanne]

89. Yup. To counter McCain, all we have to say is "Bush".

Thank you, Junior!

[DU9598]

43. It wasn't a "bitter" speech

It was an intelligent answer to a serious question. The media - and Clinton camp - did a wonder job of spin. However, Obama was right on that people are pissed off ... he just had to use a different word because saying people are pissed would have made him a crude, angry black man.

[zanne]

3. Please. McCain is phoning it in.

He knows he doesn't stand a chance in November. How many die-hard Republicans do you think are left out there? According to Bush's latest ratings, it's below 30%. Obama is the next president of the United States.

[hokies4ever]

16. Obama WILL win and will change the electoral map

for decades to come. The real question is how much damage the Republican Party will take because of George Bush. I think it's likely that multiple red states will now become swing states after Obama becomes the nominee, and will remain in play for Democrats for decades to come.

[NJSecularist]

63. Obama will change the electoral map for decades to come?

He'll turn multiple red states into swing states?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Talk about pie in the sky rhetoric. He will not win one single state in the South. He will not change the electoral map for years to come. It'll be the same map as it was in 2000 and 2004 give and take a few states, and like always, the election will come down to Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and luckily for us Obama does so well in those three states. :sarcasm:

[zanne]

88. I think the focus has to be on unity now. nt

[hokies4ever]

100. When Obama wins Virginia

It will be viewed as a contested state for many elections to come. Can Hillary win against McCain? Sure. But Obama will win and permanently damage the Republicans. Obama already has organized a great grassroots campaign with volunteers who will help from the highest levels of government to the local level. History will judge Bush not only by his inept presidency and high disapproval ratings, but also by the permanent damage done to the Republican Party.

[Clark2008]

125. Actually, as a Southerner living in a Southern state and listening

to Southern talk radio - I'd say you're wrong on that count.

I heard tons of callers this morning opine that Obama could carry Mississippi and Georgia because of the influx of new and black voters he'd bring to the polls.

That said, if Obama can't win a single state in the South, then neither can Hillary.

I, myself, don't care at this point who wins. I never liked the field to begin with. I'll just hold my nose and vote AGAINST McBush.

[NJSecularist]

166. Who cares what tons of callers say? Obama is not winning Mississippi and Georgia.

And he won't win Virginia, although he'll have e better performance than Kerry did and have the best performance in the state since LBJ in 1964.

[TheWraith]

143. The Clinton campaign motto: NO, WE CAN'T!

I'll be glad when you leave.

[NJSecularist]

167. The Clinton campaign motto: Let's be serious here. n/t

[Carrieyazel]

114. No, he's not changing the electoral map. There's no way he could.

He's going to be struggling just to get close to 270. Most red states are not possible for Barack Obama.

The severe damage to the Republic Party is being done at the Congressional level and state and local races. We'll win in a lot of red states this fall, but it'll be House, Senate, state candidates. Not Obama.

[Texas Hill Country]

136. really... he says crazy shit like putting Texas into play... that will NEVER happen

and that he can win without FL and OH... my ass.


Obama may have won the nomination, but Hillary was by far the better GE candidate.

[Johnny Battleground]

148. Obama will change the electoral map like McGovern and Mondale did

He's weak, green and Wright showed the nation his Achilles Heel.

He will not sway the swing voters... sorry, not with a 20-year association with Wright.
Defending "God Damn America" etc. and then doing a 180 was not the way to swing the swing voters.

Super Delegates Vote Hillary.

[philk17088]

132. McCain has no support

Add to this that 25% of the republican voters in NC didn't vote for him.

[Tim4319]

4. I have three words for you!

Yes....He....Can!

[GihrenZabi]

5. Of course he can win

McCain hasn't faced an OUNCE of media scrutiny due to Hillary dragging this thing out. Once she finally comes to reason and gets the hell out of the way, and McCain gets a taste of all this, he's done. Dean is ready to go at him with a pack of rabid dogs.

[Doityourself]

6. Yep. Obama can be elected. Period.

[onenote]

7. And after HRC stops fighting, will you stand with the Democratic nominee?

That's the real question.

[LVjinx]

138. Many of us Clinton supporters are TRYING to transition

It is clear Obama will be the nominee... And many Obama supporters have been very gracious to us. But almost as many are continuing to make juvenile, race-baiting remarks. It's possible to support Hillary and not be a racist, I think most people understand that. But there ARE individuals trying to poison the well. And many of us won't be comfortable with those tactics used against McCain, either.

Come November, we need to be united to stop the Republicans. I'll admit I like McCain - but he won't do what needs to be done to get this country back on the right path. And he sure as hell won't investigate the Bush administration's activities. We need a democrat in office to get things done.

Many of us still support Hillary, but it is clear that she can't get the nomination unless something disasterous happens. So disasterous that I have no idea what it would be. Therefore, if she stays in, she MUST adjust her message to one of unity with the public acknowledgement Obama is the likely nominee. Otherwise, superdelegates will turn against her and there will be an ugly forcing out very soon, I believe. I dearly want to see her avoid that.

[medicswife]

164. Transition is hard when you're passionate about someone

I am still convinced that Joe Biden would have been the best candidate for us to run in November. It was hard enough to see him step aside after Iowa. I can't imagine how tough this must be for those of you who have been behind Senator Clinton for this entire run. I just had to accept that not as many American's agreed with me, and it was a really difficult thing to do. I appreciate the posts that you have written, LVjinx, your maturity and clear headedness on a difficult day is admirable. :) Thanks for acting like a grown up and for your wise words.

[chelsea0011]

Yes, because McCain can't win.

[nichomachus]

8. Well, if you'd stop writing crap like this

and get off your ass and work for him, he'll beat the pants off McCain.

[kennetha]

26. Won't lift a finger for him

Unless and Until Hillary quits! She's my candidate at the moment!

[zanne]

91. You sound like the people I used to call in the Obama phonebank...

Last May, I started calling people about Obama. Some of them, like you, told me he didn't stand a chance against Hillary and that I was just being naive and wearing rose-colored glasses. I realize now that it was a tactic being used to try to discourage Obama supporters and make us step down. It didn't work, did it?

[hokies4ever]

9. By your logic Hillary can't win either

I mean, when was the last time we elected a female President? :eyes:

[jbm]

49. Hillary had broader support

she would have had a fight, but the numbers were in her favor. Obama must know by now that this is an empty victory. He missed his chance when he turned down her offer to be vice-president.

[hokies4ever]

53. *Long-distance pity hug*

You're spinning out of control. Here, have a hug to help you feel better. :hug:

Don't forget to donate your hard-earned dollars to Hillary's campaign. She needs the money if you want her to keep going. After all, it was just reported that she lent herself $6.4 million last month. :rofl:

[Window]

64. LOL! Riiiiight.

[Terran]

73. Er, how do you figure that?

Especially when 60% of the people don't find her trustworthy? And do you not recall the 1990's, the bizarre level of hatred the wingers had for her? Newsflash: they still have it.

[Hugabear]

75. HAHAHA - such broad support, that she can't even win the nomination?

Seriously, where do you people come up with this stuff? Hillary can win in November, but she can't win during the primaries?

What sort of magical transformation do you see happening?

[blogslut]

10. Yes. He will win in November..

n/t

[CatsDogsBabies]

11. yes.

[MannyGoldstein]

13. Of Course He Can Win

Obama came from 30 points behind to defeat the prohibitive favorite, and her husband the ex-president, and a coven of experienced operatives (Carville, Ickes, etc). That's a pretty amazing feat.

McCain's platform is "More wars, fewer jobs, and stay the Bush course". Beating that shouldn't be all that difficult.

A question for you: why is it that the Republicans want Clinton to win the nomination?

[bowens43]

14. Of course he can win and he will.

Nearly everything in your post is wrong or irrelevent.

[babylonsister]

15. I predict an Obama win by astounding proportions. This country

is ready to change, ready to heal, and he will be the perfect person to do it. He's accomplished so much despite the naysayers, and he's just getting started!

[agingboomer]

37. Landslide coming up

When I hear these remarks that Obama can't win in November, I
have to wonder if they are not based on racism.  I don't
understand how anyone could think that McCain would be a
stronger candidate.  If they think he can't win, its because
they think the country won't vote for a black man.  I
disagree.  Obama is going to clean McCain's clock.  It will be
a beautiful thing to behold.

[babylonsister]

44. Exactly! And welcome to DU, agingboomer! I'm one of them, too! nt

[Pacifist Patriot]

135. The fear that Obama cannot win is often based on racism, but not necessarily...

indicative of racism on the part of the person holding that fear. For example, my father hasn't a discriminatory bone in his body but he's neither deaf nor blind when it comes to his neighbors. He knows they won't vote for Obama because he is black. So he extrapolates that into a fear that too many other voters are racist as well thereby dooming the Democrats' chances to take the White House if Obama gets the nomination.

I'm not as pessimistic as my dad. I think Obama can win. But I'm also a realist and know there will be idiots out there who vote against him or choose not to vote because they don't think an African American should be president.

So yes, I think "Obama can't win" comments pretty much always have the fear of racism tied up with them.

[AZSlacker]

17. Yes he can win. Thanks for your concern though.

:eyes:

[WeDidIt]

18. You're damned right he can!

McCain is in for the trouncing of his political life.

Obama is goign to beat him so bad he'll probably retire and be replaced by a Democrat in the Senate.

[DU9598]

19. McCain losing 27% of the vote running unopposed in his primary

<http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NC>

He is a flawed candidate who will not turn out his base and I would not doubt that a part of his base votes for Obama ... perhaps straight D.

[hokies4ever]

25. The REAL question is will Hillary win her Senate re-election

now that everybody knows that she's just a panderer-in-chief.

[hokies4ever]

20. *Long-distance pity hug*

Cause you sound like you need it. :hug:
Did something happen yesterday to put you in such a bad mood? :rofl:

[moobu2]

22. No, he cant even win the primary!!

[Thrill]

23. If Democrats stick together the only one that will be compared to Dukakis is McCain

[jbm]

41. why would Democrats stick together at this point?

for months it's been fashionable for anyone and everyone to call Hillary Clinton every name in the book. She is an amazing woman, and may rise to the occasion, but you've permanently lost many of her supporters.

[MikeNearMcChord]

56. Fine let them go to John McCain

If that is how you feel, go there too. But good friend I would rather have you here because I want people to come together to rid this country of the Scourge known as the Bush Presidency, and conservative free market policies. I think there are many Clinton supporters who know that the primaries are the silly season(look at th stuff Clinton's spokespeople were saying, if you want insults)and will work together with the Obama people to bring new change. And who says Hillary can't bring prospectives to the Obama campaign. Sorry I have no time for those who in a fit of pique, want to take their ball and go to stand up and be counted with those who want to see America divided fighting every war while raping the planet's resources, and giving the rich more and more while impoverishing more and more. Good friend take your time, but please come join the us and let's build the winning team. The water is warm.

[Thrill]

57. Well then those who don't will have to live with Repuke Policies another term

Thats the bottom line. And I don't see where Obama has called her every name in the book. Hillary has been much more ugly to him than he has to her.

[mohc]

24. These posts are just silly

Yes he can win in November. It will not be an easy fight, but neither would it have been with Clinton as the nominee. Your support for Clinton has blinded you to her weaknesses. Personally I believe Obama's chances of winning the general election are an order of magnitude higher than Clinton's chances. He has broader support from the party base, as evidenced by the fact that he has won the primary, he will attract more crossover voters, and will pull in far more first time/new voters than Clinton would have.

[kennetha]

33. His support comes from a fixed chunk of the party

Namely:

the young; African Americans, and upper crust/educated/activist types. He seems to have no appeal beyond that chunk. That's enough to win your lots of caucuses and many Democratic primaries where the AA vote approaches 25-35% of the electorate. But it's enough to get you creamed in the general election. If Obama can't expand his appeal -- and I really don't see how he can -- he gets wiped out in Dukakian proportions.

[nancyr]

52. I really disagree

He gives me goosebumps when he speaks, and I can't remember the last time a politician had that effect on me. I am not black, I am certainly not upper crust, have no college degree, and am pushing 70, and I am a woman. I, and a lot of my friends who are also totally pro-Obama, do not fit into any of those stereotypes we're supposed to fall into. Please don't lump us all into categories.

[route66left]

84. Just what we need....

someone who votes for someone based on goosebumps. No mention of content. OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[route66left]

Kennetha, you're quite right...

The figures prove your argument. The comments against your sound premise are the usual bullying and haranging of the Obama supporters.

[NatBurner]

27. yes, yes, yes... © hillary clinton

[Marrah_G]

28. I hope so

But I have a bad feeling November is not going to go well. The RW machine will make the Clinton "attacks" look like kitten play.

[roseBudd]

29. You neglect his most important quality, hint it's something Bill Clinton has

It is charisma. People like Obama. People are drawn to Obama. When he speaks they listen.

Obama is not some short guy with a funny east coast accent. He's not a bore. His wife is not a billionare. Hubby is not a mega millionare. He is cool. He's got game. He doesn't look ridiculous doing anything.

No other losing dem candidate since JFK is comparable.

[kennetha]

47. Obama is no JFK!

JFK was a decorated war hero, a cold warrior, had 14 years in the house and Senate, had been considered for VP the election before, was actually a good debater. And besides, JFK STILL probably only won the election with the help of Daly's shenanigans in Chicago.

Obama has lots of personal assets. He is a cool seeming guy. And he does give a good and compelling speech. Plus he has tons and tons of money. But he's been branded as culturally alien and effetely liberal. He has no accomplishments. He's transformed nothing. He's lead no particularly hard fights. And we're at war on two fronts.

McCain is a bad candidate. But he's man of tremendous substance. I don't think Obama will win very many blue collar votes over a person like that.

[roseBudd]

158. And Hillary's high unfavorables and dishonsty quotient are better for beating McCain?

When the economy is tanking the change candidate wins.

McCain is a gaffe prone old coot who happens to do well on the Daily Show.

[baldguy]

31. Can Obama actually lose in Nov?

25% of voters in the GOP primaries yesterday VOTED AGAINST McCAIN! New voter registrations favor Dems 2:1. Obama's got a 4:1 cash advantage over McCain. Nov '08 will be a Democratic landslide - WITH COATTAILS.

The only advantage McCain has over Obama is his skin color.

[jbm]

45. the realistic question is can Obama even carry one state?..n/t

.

[baldguy]

50. Apparently you haven't been paying attention the last few months.

LANDSLIDE!

[DrFunkenstein]

32. McCain = Yawn, Obama = Record-Breaking Turnout, Fundraising, Enthusiasm, Change We Can Believe In

Fired up and ready to go! Tell me one person, any person at all, that can say the same about McCain.

[rucky]

34. You're overanalyzing this.

America will get the president it deserves.

[Clark2008]

133. Uh-oh... we're in trouble then.

[rucky]

139. I'm hoping for the best, and preparing for the stupidest. n/t

[seabeyond]

35. Can Obama Win in November?......YES. n/t

[jbm]

36. You are correct..

Hillary was treated with such disrespect that some of her voters are never going to come back, and even if they did, Obama doesn't have the demographics to carry a general election. I think Mccain will win the General by the biggest landslide ever.

[graycem]

38. That's funny...

in everyone's view, but apparently yours, and some other ardent supporters, Hillary is closer to Dukakis. You can admit that or not, it is irrelevant. What you really want to say is can he overcome racism and win. Of course he can, he's DOING it now if you've been paying attention. I see no evidence that says Hillary can win if she can't even beat Obama. She can't get elected if she can't even win her own DEMOCRATIC primary. Who the hell else do you think is going to vote for her if Democrats overwhelmingly do NOT? The Republicans would come out in droves to vote AGAINST her, period. It is over.

[nuxvomica]

39. Dukakis could win this year if he were the nominee

The real election is being fought out in the Democratic primary because the Republicans have screwed things up so badly that they can't possibly hold onto the White House without widespread electoral fraud. Either Clinton or Obama can do this.

[Jersey Devil]

40. "his cultural and political profile"?

Yet another post reminding us that yes, he is black. Thank you for your concern.

[DMorgan]

42. It's hard to find anything in the OP's post here

That has any logic, facts, or proper characterization of Senator Obama.

Dukakis?? Yeah, Obama right! Obama is responsible for Mich and FL? Yeah right! Hillary CAN win in the G E? Yeah right!

Accomplish exactly ZERO in the Senate? I think you need to do some studying of the facts. That's HILLARY who has accomplished next to nothing but sweet talk in her 7.5 years in office. Obama has quite a list in his brief stay in the Senate, so read up. Better yet... here's the video so you don't have to read too much.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=1RSJMC-UuCw

[DeeDeeNY]

46. You are basing your conclusions on many false premises

There are too many false assumptions to refute each one. But I suggest a start would be checking Obama's background, including all his years in the Illinois legislature, and then checking out all the problems with McCain.

[rodeodance]

48. cbs brought up an interesting and valid

issue today.

Obama has made no headway with the white vote. He has consolidated the Black vote and made gains.


Please no racist labeling if you want to discuss the issue. This board has had too much of that. Sociologists and pollsters use the categories of white, black, hispanic, asian-american, men, women, etc. etc.

[LWolf]

51. No, imo, he will not win in November. n/t

[Czolgosz]

54. Obama is far more electable than Hillary, the single most divisive political figure in America

[stevietheman]

55. Of course he will have trouble winning if Democrats like you don't get an attitude adjustment. n/t

n/t

[TragedyandHope]

58. Yes

[ShortnFiery]

59. Yes! Yes! Yes!

Go Obama! :patriot:

[futureliveshere]

60. Maybe true 7-9 years back. i.e. Before Bush & without McCain

These 2 reasons are enough for anybody other than a Republican who has morphed into another chimpy to win.

[avenger64]

61. No. This is a shame.

The party is falling on the sword. Hillary won all of the big democratic states, and Obama won in states with big black populations, and where there were caucuses. That's not going to work in the general election. Say hello to President McCain.

[FSogol]

66. You think that if H Sen. Clinton is not in the race, that the big Democratic states

will suddenly vote for McCain? Obama will win all of the Kerry states, plus VA, NC, SC, CO, and a few others. We are in for a huge Democratic win this year.

[DMorgan]

70. It's amazing how Hillary supporters are so eager for a Dem to lose....

all those historically Dem states. Just amazing how little logic and math they command.

[zanne]

94. I hope they get over their bitterness by November.

If not, I'm sure that most Hillary supporters will vote for Obama. After the eight hellish years we've just had, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot not to.

[avenger64]

97. Actually, I've got a spreadsheet I'd be glad to send you ...

... I did the math, and Obama got 90 net delegates in states Bush won by 15 or more (we call those 'red states'), he got 106 net delegates from states with Caucuses, and he was trailing in delegates in the blue states. These trends were actually amplified by what happened in NC and Indiana. Not only that, in pure electoral terms, the states that Hillary won would be enough to carry the nomination. Not true of Obama. I may need to remind you that there will be no caucuses in November, and that Obama is not going to win in the deep south like he did in the primaries.

What the Democrats have done is to nominate a candidate via a process that he can't continue in the fall, and they're going to suffer for it.

[DMorgan]

106. Send me your crystal ball along with the spreadsheet.

You think you know the results before the the G E campaign even starts, and SIX months before the polls open on election day.

I want that crystal ball. Maybe it's the same one Hillary was using saying in Dec that it would "all be over by Super Tuesday"!

[avenger64]

71. NC and SC? You have to be kidding me. You don't seriously believe that.

I live in SC. McCain is popular down here, and he's going to win by 10 points. Ditto for NC. VA will be tight, but Obama is vulnerable in NJ, Florida, Ohio, and even Massachussets (McCain is leading in the polling there). Pennsylvania might even be in play, as only the inner-city people in Philly are going to vote for Obama.

Like I said, that's President McCain, and that kills me. The democrats are going with the wrong candidate.

[FSogol]

80. VA won't be tight. We have a semi-popular Democratic governor

and Mark Warner is poised to take a GOP senator seat. The exburbs have been going blue in recent elections and will continue. Red exburb, Prince William County has destroyed its tax base thanks to jumping on the illegal immigrant band wagon and is now rejecting GOP politics.

The Democratic party thanks to Dean have made inroads into many former GOP strong areas. Obama will do well in these areas. Put that with the Country's disgust with W and company and you'll get big Democratic wins.

[zanne]

93. That's ridiculous.

Once we have our official nominee and the question isn't about a split Democratic vote, the Dem will win over the Republican BIG. Even in the Carolinas.

[avenger64]

95. Like I said. No way.

Maybe you have to be down here to understand, but SC is going to be McCain country. We have 4 military bases, and a bunch of veterans and current soldiers. McCain is a pro-military warmonger. He's going to win here by 10 points.

[zanne]

119. Well, I live in NH and I never thought we'd go blue...

For the first time in over 100 years, we are! Never say never!

[Carrieyazel]

121. Isn't McCain well ahead of Obama in your state?

[zanne]

140. No, he isn't.

When asked by pollsters "If the elction was being held today, who would you vote for--the Democratic candidate or McCain", McCain loses by a landslide.

[avenger64]

153. Where is that?

You need to post a reference for a claim like that.

[zanne]

161. Ummmm....You didn't. nt

[Carrieyazel]

120. Yeah, Obama will be a sacrificial nominee it looks like.

No way he's winning in the lock Repube states; any state that went Repube by 5 points or more four years ago isn't going to be in play. That's every southern state, all the "squares" in the middle of the nation, most of the mountain west states, as well as Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, Virginia and Kentucky. That's 240 EVs locked up for McCain that aren't going anywhere.

[zanne]

163. So you're saying a Democrat can't win in November?

Why are you even on the "Democratic" Underground?

[Hola]

137. Rendell

If PA can vote for Lois Farakhan loving Rendell, then Obama should have no problem in that state. He is ahead of McCain in MA, NJ, CA & NY polling. But nothing can be taken for granted. Obama will only win if he has 110% support from the Dem party.

[avenger64]

154. Last I heard he was behind in both MA and NJ. You need to provide ...

... a link if you're going to make claims like this.

[zanne]

162. Why are you rooting for McCain? nt

[avenger64]

169. I'm rooting for Clinton, and not losing the presidency...

... which is what's going to happen if Obama gets the nomination.

[zanne]

174. Rush Limbaugh called...

He wants to know how you're doing over here.

[avenger64]

178. There you go, keep calling people names, ...

... running them down when they don't agree with you. Makes me more determined than ever to take the other side, bro.

[zanne]

182. Not that it matters, but I'm not a "bro"...

And I just call em' as I see em'.

[avenger64]

183. And you see 'em the way you want to, and no other way,

... that's for sure.

[zanne]

184. As do you, Avenger.

See you in the gun forum.

[NJSecularist]

74. Obama isn't winning Virginia, North Carolina or South Carolina. n/t

[FSogol]

87. I disagree. Let's check back on 11/5/08. n/t

[zanne]

165. Yeah; good idea, FSogol. I'm in. nt

[Window]

62. Yes. He can.

[newmajority]

65. YES WE FUCKING CAN!!

:bounce: :kick: :woohoo:

[Phillycat]

67. I'm not convinced, but what can we do but try?

This thing is over, the people have spoken, and it's on to November. We need a Democratic president, and since this is our nominee, we can't do anything else but work to see him elected.

[highplainsdem]

68. He has a chance. I believe Clinton had a better chance.

She has no real chance of winning the nomination at this point. But I don't think Obama has much chance of winning the general election without her on the ticket as VP. Just as I believe she'd have needed him on the ticket as VP, if she'd won the nomination.

If we don't see a really profound reconciliation of the two halves of a very evenly divided party, we're in real trouble in November.

[NJSecularist]

69. Good post, kennetha.

Too bad the Obamites are too busy lobbing ad hominem grenades at you instead of having a legit discussion about this issue. There seems to be some wishful thinking going on around this forum by the O-bots. They think Obama is going to re-invent the general election map. Well, it's obvious to anybody with any sense of reality that he isn't, and this race will come down to Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio like it has the previous two elections. Then, we ask: how does Obama perform in those three states? Can he win them?

The answer is no. But most of the netroots hasn't realized because they are too raveled into their own cognitive dissonance to do an honest assessment of the situation. The only state of the three that Obama has a chance to win is Pennsylvania, and that simply isn't good enough.

[whatchamacallit]

72. I don't believe the "Only Hillary can win the GE" claim anymore than the other specious claims

her supporters pull straight out of their asses: "Only Hillary has been vetted", "Only Hillary has the experience", "Only Hillary will stop the war", "Only Hillary can answer the red phone" (start a war?)...

:crazy:

[d00mzday]

82. The Republicans Want You to stay home.

Stop playing the republicans game, and we can win. Don't just think about your future think about your kids, think about the soldier's in Iraq. Obama might not be your ideal candidate, but Look at Bush then think long and hard about what Mccain represents. Get out there and vote democrat.

[GOPBasher]

76. Have you seen polls?

He runs roughly even with McCain, actually slightly ahead usually, and this is despite having one-third of Hillary supporters saying they'll vote for McCain. All he has to do is pull a small percentage of them and he'll win.

Before the primaries got underway, I said repeatedly that Edwards was by far our most electable candidate, as every single poll was showing. Hillary was always running the worst against the GOP, because her negatives were so fucking high. Why the hell did people support her from the beginning? I never got it.

[Hugabear]

77. I think you and many other Hillary supporters don't WANT Obama to win in November

I really think that you'd prefer to sabotage his chances to win, and suffer through a McCain presidency, just so that you can regroup for another shot in '12.

[highplainsdem]

103. Not true.

And the people here who have posted most often about how they'd sit out the election if the other Democratic candidate was the nominee have been Obama's more extreme supporters. Don't project that attitude onto Clinton supporters who simply don't think he's as strong a candidate in the GE.

[Carrieyazel]

116. Hillary has no shot in '12. This is her last and only shot.

That's why she's pushing it so hard.

[terrell9584]

78. He needs a Southern white from the more conservative

wing of the party, but there is a roadmap to it. It's not a traditional road map though.

[dbmk]

79. I can think of something

"I can't think of a single thing that qualifies Obama to be commander in chief, not a single thing."
In an interview in 2002 Obama laid out the way he saw the war and occupation would develop. And he was SPOT on.

Case closed.

[ClassWarrior]

81. You "rather doubt it?" When Dems have been drawing THREE AND FOUR TIMES...

...the numbers of voters that the Rape-Publicans have - all season long? So now that Obama's the nominee, where are all those people gonna go? Grampa McBush?

Dream on.

NGU.

[madrchsod]

83. if obama does win the nomination

we should make sure your prediction comes true by not working our asses off to make sure he does`t win...that`s a good idea. why bother to back a candidate who we all know is going to lose to a "white man" because no one will vote for a "black man".

so the best thing to do is not bother to support barak obama with everything we have because he will lose to a guy who barely knows where the fuck he is at and most of the time has no clue what to say...?

[madrchsod]

85. obama will win 55-45 in the general election

[bighart]

86. I would really like to see a serious discussion of Obama's qualifications done here.

Without all of the name calling and "pissing contest" rhetoric that seems to show up whenever the subject of who can win in Nov. or who the better candidate is. I am very confident that Obama will be the nominee, but have some nagging fear that he will be perceived as unqualified. I think the attitude that is "just John McCain" on the republican side is dangerous. It is almost as bad as the assumption last time that the general public was looking for "anyone but Bush".

Obama's limited experience in the national political landscape and limited record in the senate I believe may be a major obstacle to overcome. I get the feeling that the phrases "untested" and "unproven" will be thrown around a lot in the run up to the GE, and could cast enough uncertainty into the minds of some independents to sway them.

The time to start taking this seriously is now, and I am afraid that there is an overconfidence out there that this election is "in the bag" due simply to the fact that it comes on the heels of 8 years of Bush.

[whatchamacallit]

92. Pointless discussion cuz Obama's the one

deal with it.

[bighart]

105. You are assuming I don't accept the fact that Obama is the nominee.

I do. My concern is for the GE. If you believe the general election is already won, great. I don't and would like to see a serious discussion about what it will take to win.

[whatchamacallit]

107. Hey, it's your precious time

waste away:shrug:

[bighart]

127. So, to you ensuring a dem is elected in Nov is a waste of time.

That's good to know.

[whatchamacallit]

128. WRONG. I support Obama because he can and WILL win in Nov.

Unlike what passes for reality on your planet, here on earth Hillary is a loser.

[bighart]

168. Where did I ever say I was a Hillary supporter?

The fact is my primary was in Feb and I voted for Edwards. I don't have a horse in this race and am thinking about this in the broader perspective of what it takes for a democrat to be the next president. YOU make the assumption that I support Hillary and ATTACK me based on your flawed thinking. I have never supported one or the other of these two as my vote has already been cast. I will accept whoever the nominee is and want to do whatever I can to help ensure they win the election.
You seem to have a chip on your shoulder about supporting one candidate over the other, and you have a right to support whoever you choose.

The time is rapidly approaching where we are going to need to shift the conversation as a party to qualification for election to the presidency, and I would like to have as many facts to back up my assertion that Obama, again me accepting he will be the nominee, is the best and most qualified for the job when I have discussions with independents and left leaning republicans to try to convince them to vote for Obama this fall. And "well he was opposed to the war from the start" is not a real solid reason for some to support him.
OK.

[Colobo]

90. Kennetha, give Obama a chance. Stand with us. Let's fight for victory!

[lutefisk]

96. Obama has a better chance than Clinton, but Gore is the one who could have won

The corporate right wing republican swiftboating attack machine will go after any Democrat, but Gore would have withstood the attacks and won in November. I don't have any doubts about that.

By the time the corporate media and accomplices are done with Obama, half the country will believe he is a card carrying member of Al Qaeda, the Black Panthers, NAMBLA, and who the hell knows what else they'll invent.

That said, I think he has a chance. At least the best chance of anyone other than Gore.

[and-justice-for-all]

98. HELL YES HE CAN WIN IN NOVEMBER AND WILL!!!!

OBAMA 08'!!!!!

[CreekDog]

99. if you and others allow others' bigotry to dictate whom you vote for neither can win

got it?

[Bluerthanblue]

101. your question reveals more than you realize.

prejudice is not something that is reserved for "cultural" differences.

Obama's qualifications for president are no less adequate than Hillary's.

Those who feel the need to ask this question, are looking for confirmation/absolution for their own deep seated, and unacknowledged bigotry- (IMO)-

Can an old white geezer really win? Can an Irish Catholic really win? Can an oversexed woman chaser - rhodes scholar win?
Can a peanut farmer win?

Can anyone win?

:shrug:

[karynnj]

102. I think he can

He already did what everyone thought was completely impossible - he beat the Clinton machine in the Democratic primary. Think of the advantages she had going in. She had the best name recognition and a story that had been carefully crafted for at least 7 years - and likely more. In addition to having WJC, they had most of the Democratic party in exile. In addition, there was - like with the Bushes - the conventional wisdom that the Clintons will punish people they deem unloyal, leading to her having a preponderance of the machine politicians. They also had the support of much of the Democratic leaning MSM. How many times did we hear the campaign called "flawless" while we were blogging that we saw cracks - big cracks.

Now the general election. You reference Senator Kerry. He has repeatedly said that once we have a nominee, the key is that there are huge differences in where McCain and Obama are on the issues. Against Clinton, the fight was mostly on character, personality and baggage - because they were pretty close on the issues. The country is ready for change. McCain is currently trying to say that he is a change from Bush. He also is saying that he was a critic of what Bush did in Iraq. Though there were calls that they did not have enough troops - that people on both the left and right said - there are also many Senate speeches and all those many pro-Bush speeches in 2004. Remember the picture posted at least 100 million times on DU of the McCain/Bush hug? The cake shared when New Orleans drowned?

McCain has a huge amount of love from the media and he has received great coverage for years and was readily forgiven for things like Keating 5. He has also been forgiven for a very hot temper. (Compare all this to the things the media holds against someone like John Kerry - with no scandal and a extraordinary ability to not blow up or attack viciously in return.)

I do not think we should kid ourselves that 2008 will be easy, but it is hard to overstate how impossible 2004 likely was. Senator Kerry has mentioned that he thinks the problem was that he was unable to break the bonds to Bush forged after 911 with enough people. Also the war was only a year and a half old and most people - even some who had been against it - thought it could end well. I spoke to some Bush voters that I know very well, because they were almost angry that I not only voted for Kerry, but 2 years later still proudly had my Kerry bumper sticker. I assumed that the part of the year they lived in FL may have led to them believing some of the lies. In reality, they had rejected the lies and one really was impressed positively by Teresa. The problem - as WWII teenagers, they thought you did not question the validity of the war once you were in it and you didn't second guess on how to fight it. (It was not lost on these 2 Catholics what Kerry was repeatedly saying when he said it was not a war of last resort - ie Kerry in 2004 was saying it was not a just war.)

Now, 4 years later - the country has moved on - the number of people who would still take that position has shrunk. Also, neither is the current CIC and both are suggesting different paths. One advantage Obama will have is that since 2004, Democrats - notably Kerry have greatly moved the American opinion on what needs to be done. The bipartisan study group endorsed proposals that sound like Kerry's 2004 plan. Not to mention that shortly after Kerry opted not to run, nearly the entire Democratic party - including Obama and HRC committed to about the same Iraq strategy. Even HRC came close to using Kerry's 2006 language on Iraq. Obama is not starting from scratch on getting people to see the logic in his plans for Iraq. Though they might not be what Kerry himself would propose, they have been consistent with them in philosophy. It is a big deal that a bi-partisan group agreed to the basic concepts and that the persuasion already has been initiated over the years. (Contrast this to Kerry explaining his ideas multiple times a day and having the media give more coverage to the RNC saying that he wasn't saying anything different than Bush - though where was that Bush regional summit? The media quickly identified the ISG as similar to Kerry - so they actually had heard. It hurt that WJC during his book tour DID agree himself on what to do going forward. Obama, though should have a party conceptually behind him.)

On the domestic issues - most break for the Democrats and McCain gave us a gift - he said he knew little about economics. McCain also might be the only Republican who really can't use immigration against us. He also - unfortunately - might be the only Republican we don't have a stark difference with on global warming. (he in fact plagiarized how Kerry represented the alternatives of doing or not doing something). The social issues may rear their ugly heads again - but the consensus that the country is in deep trouble may diminish their value. (Though the bitter comment hurts as there are people, who are very principled who know full well they are voting against their economic interests and are proud of that).

On personality - both can be charming - but luckily for us - theirs is more prone to inexplicable gaffes.

[Renew Deal]

104. Hillary would be Mondale all over again

And Obama is no Dukakis.

[Carrieyazel]

108. Obama cannot win the Presidency, but his numbers will be more like Kerry's

NOT Dukakis. So its John Kerry Mach II. Most of the Kerry states are not winnable by the other side.

I also disagree with your contention that Hillary is such a formidable GE candidate. Yeah, she'll be more competitive in places like Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, but actually winning them? No.

McCain has got 26 states locked up right now for 240 electoral votes. He will not lose in any state Shrub carried by 5+ points in '04. That only leaves relatively few battlegrounds, and Barack has to run the table. He won't be able to do it.

[BlooInBloo]

109. Despite what the bigots say, yes, he can win.

[Neshanic]

110. No.

[Vinca]

111. Absolutely he can win. In addition to Dems he attracts Indies

and fed up Republicans. You think a whole lot of people will vote for John McCain after they find out he's going to disappear their health insurance?

[Carrieyazel]

122. McCain also attracts Indies. And some disaffected Dems will go to him.

[Vinca]

129. And they'll be standing in the insurance line behind me, trying

to buy a policy that actually covers anything for $12,000 a year with their $5,000 tax credit from President McCain. How stupid is that?

[Exilednight]

112. I was listening to a Republican analysis on NPR today, this is what he had to say ......

We've known for 6-8 years how to beat Hillary. In the past 6 to 8 weeks we have learned how to beat Obama, thanks to Hillary.

[stillcool]

113. Yes We Can!...

and psst...Not This Time!

[SeaLyons]

115. BO wins nomination...

loses general election....

what kick in the democratic party's ass if this happens.

[bain_sidhe]

117. Yes, but it won't be easy.

And contrary to your assertion, a Clinton win isn't a given, either.

I came to the conclusion a few weeks ago that the way Obama would/could win would be better for the party than the way Clinton would win, so at that point, I had to consider myself an Obama supporter. But I still admire and respect Clinton, and I know she could win, and may even have a *slightly* better chance than Obama. But Obama's win will be based on game-changing metrics - new voters, new states - whereas a Clinton win would essentially leave us in the same scramble next time that we've been in for 20 years--cobbling together a coalition that just *barely* makes it, and could lose it next time, or the time after that.

Betting on an Obama win might be a tad more risky, but it would change the playing field, and I think that would be better for the Democrats both down ticket and for the future. Given that the consequences for losing are the same either way, I'm willing to gamble on Obama. Or, as I put it in a post a few days ago, I'm doubling down on hope.

[Egnever]

118. Easily

it wont even be close

[fishwax]

123. yes, of course he can

[Butch350]

124. If Most People Would Use...

...a little common sense, YES!

[onenote]

126. repeating my question: if HRC is not the nominee, will you stand with Obama?

All I got the last time I asked was crickets.

[Enrique]

130. can McCain win?

seems pretty unlikely.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

131. I think it will be VERY difficult because the Repubs are going to attack him relentlessly

But he CAN.

I changed my support to Obama last night... not because I prefer him over Hillary, just because I think I'd rather take the chance of losing in November than split the Dem party for decades if the SuperDelegates were to give the nom to Hillary.


Obama '08! We can do it.

[Triana]

134. Hillary is working her arse off to see that he doesn't! n/t

[OzarkDem]

141. Obama can always demand McCain get out of the race

When he grows tired of running against him. Seems to be the only tool in his box.

[TheWraith]

142. Yes, he can. Next stupid question? Next pathetic smear job?

Next person to have a temper tantrum?

You really show how completely out of touch you are if you think Obama isn't going to win, or that Clinton would be more formidable. Clinton loses 3 out of 4 key Democratic bases, she loses independents, and she motivates MASSIVE turnout from the right wing.

Obama is by far the better candidate.

[kid a]

144. Tha is no longer the question. The question for realistic debate: How do we help Obama beat McCain.

[nsd]

145. Sour grapes.

Your candidate lost and you should get over it. This kind of defeatist analysis helps no one.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

147. Easily. Here's why: Obama doesn't have an (R) after his name.

The Republicans have done such an amazing job of discrediting themselves that anyone who simply says he/she isn't a Republican will win.

[delt664]

149. Okay I will make this very very clear.

The republicans (the real enemy, remember them?) WANT to run against Hillary.

They want to drag up all the old Clinton hate and smears that they hold near and dear to the pit in their chests where a heart should be because they know it is their best chance to galvanize Republicans who are near the middle.

[Gore1FL]

150. I see conjecture, but not a lot to back it up.

I see the map opening up. I see battleground states that were once considered bright red. I see McCain having to campaign in areas the GOP hasn't had to think about in decades.

If you are stuck in the paradigm that lost us election after election, then no one could win. The old map is no longer valid.

[superkia]

151. The question that all people with common sense should ask...

can McCain/Bush win the GE? If they don't steal it, a democrat WILL win! So far, I have only seen Clinton supporters question if Obama can win instead of looking at the obvious question...will Americans vote for 4 more years of bush and our country being destroyed, I don't think so!

Wake up and stop hurting the party and our chances by asking stupid questions that only have a negative affect and pose doubt on a Democrats chances in the GE. Its not about your favorite team, its about Americans needing change and they have been speaking since Iowa and super Tuesday.

If you only want your team to win and you aren't concerned with the party or the country, this might not be the best website for you?

[crispini]

152. Obama is a phenomenal candidate.

Yes, he has flaws, but he's a great campaigner and intelligent man.

The American people are sick to death of stupidity. We will vote for Obama in droves.

Don't worry. I am honestly beginning to hold high hopes for our future. I wish I could pass you some high hopes through the computer screen. :hug:

[Burma Jones]

155. I don't see how Clinton is any more electable than Obama

The level of disgust that Hillary Clinton brings up in the people I know, here in ultra Blue Montgomery County Maryland, is amazing. Frankly, to me, she's nails on a blackboard/Gilbert Gottlieb type annoying. I can only imagine how bad it is in the rest of the USA among all voters, not just Democrats. I sincerely believe that neither of these candidates will win come November and we will have four more Republican Presidential years. This is the most golden of opportunities since Watergate, and we're blowing it.

A Presidential Campaign is not based on one's qualifications or even ideology, it's based on whether you want to see/hear a particular candidate dominate news coverage for the next four years. That's how we got Reagan and the Chimp. That's what all those voters that vote for someone they want to have a beer with, or someone that seems nice to their Mom, have done to this country. That's Democracy in the Television Age, made worse by the Internet Age.......

[Orsino]

156. Yes.

His alleged lack of experience seems sufficient to edge out Clinton, and his name recognition is growing daily.

Thank you for your concern.

[FatDave]

157. A ball of lint with a (D) next to it could beat McCain in November

Notice anything about turnout in the primaries? We've got a nominee who appeals to democrats, independents and even some (gasp!) rational republicans. They've got a guy their own side doesn't even like.

Personally, I think the riskiest thing we could do is run Hillary, as her name on the ticket will give the republicans something to unite against and probably lose us a lot of independent voters. Which isn't to say she wouldn't win (like I said, ball of lint) just that she'd be riskier than Obama.

[RazBerryBeret]

159. can he win in November?

hell yeah.

have you even been paying attention? You seem to have picked up all the negative and false talking points, but none of the positive.

"I'm the man who is insisting that you have no say in the democratic primary process?" blatant lie.

"has accomplished exactly zero in his very brief Senate career" lie.

"but she could be elected"....have you ever taken a look at her negatives?

[VotesForWomen]

160. valid points. nt

[jillan]

170. Can you say President McCain?

:puke:

[dcindian]

171. Clinton has a dislike rating nearly as high as Bush.

In exactly one week her dislike rating will be higher then bush. She is not only unelectable but truly hated by a huge percentage of Americans.

And one could be pretty sure the Iranian children are begging for us to see reason.

[quakerboy]

172. If your assertions turn out true,

It must be asked why. Who branded him with that image? Who has tried to turn Florida and Michigan against the rest of the democratic party, and worked hard to paint him as the obstacle to counting their vote?

I do not believe your assessment will turn out to be true. I expect we will be looking back at this campaign to understand how to make more future victories rather than to apportion blame for loss. But it should be considered.

[OneBlueSky]

173. no, he can't . . . and neither can Hillary . . .

not as long as voters are casting their ballots electronically and Republican corporations are tabulating the results . . .

it's not who votes that counts; it's who counts the votes . . .

[Occam Bandage]

175. Yes. He will.

[2rth2pwr]

176. Good summary, this should be bookmarked and looked at the day after the election in November.

[Seabiscuit]

177. I think the democrat (no matter who it is) will win this year. I believe

that people are sick and tired of the Bush administration and the Republicans. So I think if Obama is the nominee its for him to lose it. If Obama continues to attack all of Bush's policies and directly attacks McCain we have a real chance. I'm not an Obama fan but will support him in the GE. I hope that if and when Hillary decides to step down (according to some news reports its soon) that Obama stands with her and acknowledges her achievements (I would like a see a unity photo with those two) and would like to see Obama bring her into the campaign. Healing our party and getting everybody on the same page is important going forward and its Obama that has to do it.

[AtomicKitten]

179. Hell yes he can and will win in November.

[Crunchy Frog]

180. Could Hillary have won in November?

I'm absolutely convinced that she couldn't have.

[marlakay]

181. YES.