Obama and running mates

[terrell9584]

It's not over yet. Just based on the turnout differentials between this year and 2004, there will be more than a million people turning out in KY and WV. Clinton probably takes away more than 600,000 votes, Obama will be lucky to get to 300,000 (and this is generous)

He can probably blunt this with Oregon. The other states are low voter states, they will probably go for Obama, but won't mean much to his margin. Clinton should do well in Puerto Rico, and improve her margin there. If the margin between them is small enough so that Florida makes a difference, then a fight will be on tap, if Florida alone can't make a difference, the Clinton's will be offered something, something good, and they'll probably take it. And you have to give them something, because they do have half of the party with them, and it is the half that has been known to split tickets for whatever reason.


It would be political suicide for Obama to pick a Hispanic running mate. Would be double suicide for him to pick a woman. Demographically, it makes no sense. It also makes no real sense for him to pick a Westerner. There aren't many Democrats out west anyway, though the best pick of a Westerner/Hispanic is Ken Salazar. Still, that doesn't help Obama strategically. Obama needs a white Southerner on the ticket. He has no way around it, and in all honesty, the last Democratic candidate to win as a challenger without a Southerner on the ticket was Grover Cleveland. Having Southerners on the ticket is just something that the Democratic Party does, historically.

This is mind, Obama has several routes he can go.

Gravitas:

Sam Nunn- Sam Nunn is an actual representative of the more conservative side of the Southern wing. He is also wildly popular in Georgia, and has real gravitas. There is no one who disrespects Sam Nunn and in character he is second to Nunn. Nunn would be a very good pick because he could help Democratic candidates in the South (and I now expect Congressional pickups in every state, as well as holds on all seats currently held) He is also a foreign policy expert.

Bob Graham- If Kerry had picked him, he would have won Florida. If Gore had picked him, he would have won Florida by more than 5 points and the recount wouldn't have mattered. Graham has real gravitas, especially on the foreign policy end. He remains the most popular politician in Florida, he can help with voters that Obama otherwise won't be getting, and he would help to keep up margins in areas where Obama theoretically is supposed to get in trouble, Palm Beach for example. Graham also knows how to be folksy on the trail, which Obama has had problems with, and his whole Workdays thing still remains one of the best political tricks of all time

Max Cleland- Amputee vet of Vietnam. Cleland on a ticket immediately blunts the entire war hero aspect of McCain's candidacy because Cleland gave just as much to his country as McCain did. Cleland also actually has served as a cabinet officer and he has executive level experience in Georgia. He is also an intelligent man and would do well in a debate. Cleland would be an asset to the ticket and he would help Obama with patriotism

John Breaux- Probably wouldn’t take it because his lobbying firm is more lucrative, he gave up a coronation as Governor of Louisiana for it. But, also an expert on a range of policy issues. He is also Catholic, an ethnic group that Obama has had real problems with. It is not likely that he could put Louisiana into play, but he could put Mississippi into play. Obama only needs about 22% of the white vote to win Mississippi. That would be possible with Breaux.

Ray Mabus- It is not a name that you think of when you think of gravitas, but Mabus is the man who brought legalized gambling to Mississippi. More importantly, he was Clinton’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia when Dharan was bombed. He is currently an advisor to Obama. Mabus has experience in foreign policy matters where they matter most, the Middle East, and in Mississippi, he is generally regarded as the best governor the state ever had, besides Winter.

Wes Clark- Because he is a Vietnam veteran, a general, a Southerner, and he is from the Clinton camp. Nothing more to say than that

Pete Peterson: Like McCain, he was a prisoner of war in Hanoi. He also served as a Congressman from the Big Bend area of Florida, which is heavily Democratic at the local level and which a Democrat is usually winning when they win Florida.

Bold Picks:

Brad Henry: Brad Henry thinks he has a shot at this, otherwise he wouldn’t have endorsed him, Clinton carried his state convincingly, Obama only did well in Oklahoma City. He was re-elected in 2006 with 67% of the vote. I doubt that he swings Oklahoma, but he could be a huge help in Arkansas, Texas, Mississippi and West Virginia

Mike Easley: This will be booed here, but, it would show that Obama really was a different kind of politician, it would show him to be gracious and it would be a good gesture towards Clinton folks. Easley knows the culture. He is also a Catholic, and this would help Obama with Catholic voters, a group he struggles with.

Bill Nelson: Will also be booed here, but the same as Easley. It would be a gracious gesture towards the Clinton camp and a gracious gesture towards Florida. It doesn’t hurt to mention that Nelson got 60% of the vote in Florida, even as Republicans tended to win more statewide offices in 2006. He is not the kind of asset that Graham is, but like Graham, he has the right kind of accent and he is very popular in both southern and northern Florida, at least electorally. Would also have the novelty of being the first VP nominee to have been in outer space

Jim Hunt: Probably the best governor North Carolina ever had, and a man that should have run for president in 2000. Helps Obama because he has 16 years of executive government experience and remains a beloved figure in North Carolina. Is the primary reason that N.C. has the best public school system of any southern state.

Phil Bredesen: Another southern governor, wildly popular in Tennessee. A very good chief executive, and had served before as the Mayor of Nashville.

Bud Cramer: Seems ridiculous at first. However, he is quitting politics for good after this year. He might accept such a thing though. He would help out in Appalachia, and he adds a gravitas to the ticket by virtue of the fact that he was in Congress when Obama was editing a law review. Cramer might actually take such a thing, as I suspect he is quitting right now because he figures that his political career has peaked. Being offered a VP nod would shoot that notion.

Ben Chandler: Most Kentuckians now wish that they had supported him long ago. Also notable because his grandfather was the commissioner of baseball, America’s past time. Would be a much stronger pick than people realize, and he probably realizes this and this may have contributed to his endorsement which makes no sense politically.


The reason that it makes sense politically, other than traditional reasons, for Obama to pick a white Southerner is because of the symbolism that it would send. If the first black presidential candidate is running with a white Southerner for his running mate, that sends a powerful signal of national unity that a Bill Richardson, a Kathleen Seibelus, or any of these other names I see here all the time for VP candidates just wouldn’t bring.

And as a former Edwards supporter, I can say that we don't need to go that route. He's just not a strong VP candidate for this kind of ticket, because he doesn't bring anything other than an accent, and he's too much of a known quality. I wish he had won the nomination, but that's that.

Thoughts are welcome here as long as they are respectful and don't engage in ad hominems.

[NJSecularist]

1. If Obama is the nominee, he needs a moderate on the ticket or he will lose the election.

[Solon]

11. Obama is already a moderate, he needs a liberal on the ticket...

to balance things out.

[terrell9584]

14. Obama is percieved as very liberal

Put a liberal on the ticket and he becomes Mondale/Ferraro.

Kennedy put Johnson on to appeal to the Southern wing.

Carter, who was percieved as a Southern conservative in 1976, picked a Northern liberal.

Dukakis, bowed to this, picking a pro-choice conservative, Lloyd Bentsen.

Clinton/Gore is the one ticket that has won lacking geographic and ideological balance. Two Southerners, but Gore was picked because he knew a lot about foreign policy, which Clinton did not at the time.

Obama has the more liberal elements of the party, and the public perception of him that he is liberal, every poll tells you this. He has to balance this out with a more moderate running mate, and I believe said moderate has to be of Southern origin.

[Solon]

15. That's perception, not reality. Obama is center-right at best...

what we need is a candidate that could have broad appeal and is also more liberal than Obama.

[woolldog]

18. You don't know what you're talking about.

A candidate that is more liberal than Obama? You really want to lose this election don't you?

[Solon]

24. Did you even read Obama's own campaign website?

Name ONE issue he's actually liberal on that isn't already popularly supported, such as being Pro-Choice. Name one based on the economy or something.

[woolldog]

25. omg, you are so out of touch!

You think voters when they hear the propoganda about Obama being liberal are going to review his plans one by one and weigh out where each one fits on a liberal/conservative scale?

When people talk about liberal they're talking about social issues not the economy!

Gay marriage, abortion, guns, immigration and so on. That's what they're talking about.

You have no clue how Obama plays outside the netroots. He is viewed as a liberal. And they will hammer him with that all day long. And he will compound that problem if he picks a liberal as running mate.

[Solon]

29. I'll freely admit that I'm out of touch with most Americans...

as far as I can tell, anyways. What I do know is this, Gods, Guns and Gays doesn't always trump economic issues when those issues hit the voters in the wallet severely. Right now concerns about free-trade and outsourcing are rampant, as are gas prices, wage stagnation, and abuse by corporations, especially in the health insurance industry. Now, I just work as a clerk at a gas station, in a very red county of Missouri, but the complaints about the government, from all customers, seems to revolve around economic issues. If Obama played his cards right, he could minimize the so called damage from being perceived as a social liberal by being an economic liberal, rather than the moderate he is now.

My county hasn't voted Democratic in over 16 years, this is an opportunity for him to win it, the question is does he have the will to do so.

[SmellsLikeDeanSpirit]

2. Out of all those you listed, Clark is the best choice.

[mystieus]

30. I don't care for Clark.. after hearing him say Obama wasn't ready.

He's too much of a Bill Clinton fanboy.

[SmellsLikeDeanSpirit]

33. Someone I'd really like to see would be Russ Feingold.

Although we need someone to balance the ticket and Obama/Feingold are both senators of states in the same region.

Obama has a really great chance to pick off 3 southwest states (CO, NV, NM) how about Richardson?

[Dammit Ann]

3. How about Jim Webb?

Has anyone considered?

[terrell9584]

6. The thing is

Webb has been in the Senate for all of two years. There is a gravitas he brings, but he's also famous for making sexist comments. That whole Senate race ended up devolving into "Do you want a racist or a sexist?"

Besides, Webb can do more in the Senate where he is, than he could as Vice-President. Obama's glaring weakness is percieved lack of experience, not that Clark helps here, but Clark has at least run for President before. Webb has all of two years in elected government, so he can't help Obama on the experience angle, and he has that glaring weakness of past statements and a propensity for running his mouth.

The best running mate picks are often people you've never heard of, and that is what my list is geared towards. Obama frankly needs an older person to counteract the image of his campaign as "youth central" I would rather have Webb in the Senate.

I honestly think that Mabus puts Mississippi in play. Remember that Mississippi is really, really black. You don't need many white votes to win it. I think Mabus on the ticket gets that many, and Mabus has foreign policy experience in the most critical region. The only thing he could be hit on is his divorce, but he was honorable about it, unlike Fordice who was cheating on his wife on the sly. The only real weakness I see him having is that moronic Nostradamus prophecy.

I like Peterson and Cleland because they destroy McCain's primary argument for running, especially Cleland.

[Dammit Ann]

10. Let's start fresh.

Two years, so what? At least he's honest. Sexist? He a gender, right? WE ARE ALL SEXIST! I like him.

[Dammit Ann]

12. Oh, I should mention...

I am a woman. Maybe I just like him because he's hot. You think?

[nvme]

8. on second thought screw Graham

tAKE WEBB HE HAS THE MILITARY CREDENTIALS THAT FEW WOULD QUESTION.

[CindyKay]

43. I Like Webb

I Love Him.

[TheDonkey]

4. Great list of candidates and explanations. TY

good read

[Hieronymus]

5. John Breaux .. why not just pick Lieberman?

[nvme]

7. somewhat biased.

Bob Graham has a stellar rapport with floridians. He took on a job a day as Governor it catapulted him into the senatorial seat. Graham has experience on the intelligence committees and he may not be a top player but given the animus that might be created because of the florida michigan debacle it would go a long way to sowing up a wild state like ours. Florida is a delegate rich swing state.

[woolldog]

9. *love* the quality of your analysis here (k&r)

I've been pushing the idea of Nunn as the VP for precisely the reasons you mention. We need a white male southerner on the conservative side of the party who comes from a red state that we have a chance of flipping in the GE with his help.

I'm going to look more closely at some of your other suggestions and reserve my thoughts until I do.

[Solon]

13. Sam Nunn is a non-starter, idiotic pick...

and many of the guys you mentioned are conservative, at best, and Obama is already conservative, do we really need to give Nader more ammunition?

[woolldog]

16. Obama isn't conservative.

And he's certainly not perceived that way by swing voters. I can tell you he's perceived as a liberal. Doesn't matter whether that's true or not, b/c perception = reality.

The fact of the matter is that he's going to need to pick a fairly conservative VP to offset that impression and create a balanced ticket.

You can whine and cry all you like about his VP not passing your ideological purity test, but that's just the way it is.

[Solon]

19. Perception doesn't equal reality, that's always been idiotic...

Just because Obama is perceived as a liberal, or that weak fucking word, progressive, doesn't make it true, and if people elect him AS EITHER, they are going to be pissed when he disappoints them, and he'll be facing an uphill battle for reelection 4 years from now.

[woolldog]

22. Do you actually know any swing voters?

I do and it's a serious concern. It's a BIG problem. They like Obama but they're scared he's "too liberal." He will have to fight that perception and nominating someone from the left wing of the democratic party will only play into that perception and strengthen it.

This little enclave here of progressive democrats is NOT the real world!

[Solon]

23. And if he runs even further to the right, why would they vote for him if they can get a "real"...

conservative in McCain?

[woolldog]

26. thank god you're not advising the Obama campaign

is all I can say.

I'll stop responding because this discussion is bad for my blood pressure.

[terrell9584]

17. How is Obama conservative?

I honestly want to know how he is a conservative. By every metric that conservatism is defined by, he is not it. The people who are voting against him are the more conservative voters in the party, the people who vote for conservative democrats while opposing liberal ones.

Obama will be, by far, the most liberal candidate that the party has run, perception wise. You have to balance that out, for the sake of the down ticket, and because otherwise, there won't be a victory.

We didn't pick up all those seats in '06 by running liberals, we picked up alot of them by running populists who were conservative on social issues, like that sheriff in Indiana, and Heath Shuler, and now Cayazoux and whoever that Democrat is who is leading in the race for Wicker's seat

[woolldog]

20. Exactly.

They're already trying to paint him as a fringe left-wing radical. Why play into their hands by nominating a liberal, especially when the VP usually doesn't do much policy-making once in office anyway?

The VPs most important job is to help get the nominee elected.

[Solon]

21. Obama is more an economic conservative who uses populist language...

while not being one himself. In this way, he's kinda like Edwards, though Edwards was slightly more populist. Seriously, did you look at his issues on his site, and how many "market-based" solutions he came up with for everything from carbon credits to health care. The guy is no economic leftist, far from it, and is pretty much the same as Hillary, even more conservative than her(slightly) on Health Care.

On social issues, both candidates would have been the "most liberal" to be in running on the Dem party ticket in recent history, that much is true, but that also isn't saying much either. Both are wishy-washy on GLBT rights, as an example.

[gmudem]

27. As long as you're talking about Easley and Bredesen

I would mention Tim Kaine as well. Easley sounds like a pretty blah politician, and Bredesen seems like a good governor and I would rather see him go for Senate.

Kaine is a popular governor from a state that should be one of the top Democratic targets for 2008 in terms of switching from red to blue. He's got a 57% approval rating and is especially popular in the Southeast part of the state, which has the highly populated Hampton Roads area. Kaine has endorsed Obama and has actively campaigned for him so I would not be surprised if he was a contender.

[terrell9584]

41. Kaine's advantages

He is Catholic
He is popular in Virginia

His glaring disadvantage. The fact that he has a 100% pro-life on everything stance, namely, his opposition to the death penalty. I'll use Virginia as an example. The reason that Doug Wilder was able to become governor of that state, is because he always took a line of being tough on crime, to appeal to white voters who still believed in tough justice. Wilder was never reticient about it either, he truly believed in it, and it was his administration that began the trend of ramping up executions, and Allen accelerated it beyond that.

That he is against capital punishment is a glaring disadvantage with the Obama campaign because 70% of the country supports it, and with the crime rate starting to go back up, the support for it will probably start to creep back up. Also important in Virginia because the death penalty remains wildly popular there, and the theory is the state is in play. Kaine has grudgingly gone along with carrying out the death penalty because it is the law, but he makes no secret that he's opposed to it. The Death Penalty is one of those issues that these swing voters in the suburbs care about, because most of them are pro-capital punishment. It's why Clinton went back to Arkansas to oversee a triple execution in 1992.

This also matters in Florida, where only 10 years ago, a referendum to change the form of execution to lethal injection failed, as 70% of voters voted to keep Old Sparky, even as it was having accidents. Florida is old and is full of elderly people who want you to be tough on crime. Of course, Jeb made sure to overrule the will of the people of Florida by pushing lethal injection through the legislature.

Fact is, given Obama's nature of his candidacy, and just who he is, he can't have a death penalty opponent on the ticket because that would give McCain a huge opening.

[mystieus]

28. I like Kathleen Sebelius

[davidpdx]

31. That's a good list

I've fallen out of touch being outside the US, so some of the names are familar and some aren't. I'll have to look about half of them up and get back to you. There is no right answer and we can always try to guess, but unless we know what the candidate and his close advisors are thinking, it would be hard to know for sure what direction he will go.

[davidpdx]

32. That's a good list

I've fallen out of touch being outside the US, so some of the names are familar and some aren't. I'll have to look about half of them up and get back to you. There is no right answer and we can always try to guess, but unless we know what the candidate and his close advisors are thinking, it would be hard to know for sure what direction he will go.

[TexasObserver]

34. Bill Richardson: he fills a lot of slots

1 he's Hispanic
2 but he's also "white"
3 he speaks Spanish
4 he's from the southwest/west
5 he's got real international credentials
6 he was a governor, with exec experience

Obama could make him a kind of CEO, enlist him not only to run the senate, but to interface with governors, and to help administer the various cabinet posts and agencies.

Richardson is a guy who has appeal to Hispanics, non Hispanics, and Western, Southwestern, and small state constituencies. He could help Obama win in Texas, Florida, and California.

Obama-Richardson

[woolldog]

35. That's a no-go

The media would obsess over the racial aspect of the ticket and whether whites would vote for that ticket to the point where it would damage their chances.

Also Richardson, while a great guy, isn't a very effective campaigner/spokeman.

[TexasObserver]

36. You're clearly not a seasoned politico.

The media might try to obsess over the racial aspect, but how much good has that Rev Wright nonsense done? Almost none.

If you're dismissing Richardson, you're missing a top contender. You forget, it's Obama, not you and your fears, choosing the VP.

Now, let's review some of YOUR topic lines this thread:

"You don't know what you're talking about."

"omg, you are so out of touch!"

"Do you actually know any swing voters?"

"thank god you're not advising the Obama campaign"

Suffice it to say you need to work on your people skills, and your brutish manner belies your deep seated & justified inferiority complex.

[terrell9584]

40. It's actually done more damage than you think

In the South, we are now in a situation where, in Deep South states, our strong candidates like Bobby Bright just cannot afford to have their name associated with Obama. They can't campaign with him, they can't appear in ads with him. White Democrats are in the very bad position of having to put themselves at a distance from Obama, to appease white voters who are necessary to win, without turning off black voters.

If there is ever a time for the black political leadership of the South to do their part, it's now. There are just some seats that we have to hold and some seats where we have a shot where Obama just is not an asset, and the challenge will be to help Obama's strongest supporters understand the politics of why he can't come to town, and why at least this year, there has to be a public distancing. What the North Carolina turnout tells me is, first, the Democrats are going to hold every statewide race, though the gubernatorial will be close because it's a west vs. east battle, and McCrory will win Mecklenburg.

But there are pickup oppurtunities in TX, AL, GA, NC, TN. Right now, Musgrove leads in Mississippi, because the pick of Wicker broke an unspoken agreement that has always existed in Mississippi politics, two U.S. Senators from Pontotoc, which is located in the N.E. cabal area. It was a strategic mistake and the GOP can be made to pay for it. We should hold every seat in the South, gain a few even. But it will all come down to how this is played, strategically.

[woolldog]

45. Aren't you the "seasoned politico" who guaranteed Obama would win the texas primary?

lol. If being a seasoned politico means making predictions that are wrong, then yeah, I'm not a seasoned politico yet.

Richardson is a bumbler and a poor speaker and a poor advocate for Obama. He'd make a terrible VP candidate and isn't a top contender.

Did you read the subject lines of the poster I was responding to, btw?

--"Did you even read Obama's website?"

--"Sam Nunn is a non-starter, idiotic pick"

--"perception doesn't equal reality, that's always been idiotic"

I don't care about Solon's jabs and abrasiveness and don't take that personally. And I'm sure Solon doesn't take mine personally either. We're just passionate about our views. Lighten up buddy. It's a messageboard.

[terrell9584]

44. Richardson was not a good public speaker

and he's not a good debater, and you can be assured that McCain will be picking someone charismatic for the job, because he also lacks charisma.

[remember2000forever]

37. Palm Beach?

We are one of the BIGGEST strongholds of Democrats, (along with Broward County), in the whole state of Florida. We marched in the streets during the 2000 presidential election. Bob Graham could definitely help Obama in Northern Florida though.

[remember2000forever]

38. PALM BEACH?

Home Of Randi Rhodes Also.

[terrell9584]

39. Palm Beach is elderly

and it's not only elderly, but it has a high population of elderly Jews and other people who come from Northeasterner ethnic neighborhoods.


People that Obama is percieved to have had problems with, based on race. It's a fear that the retirees will vote their prejudices, and there is evidence for this. We also know that they do vote

[CindyKay]

42. Jim Webb

I like Jim Webb. He also has a Military Background & could counter McINSANE's Maverick Status. He is honest & trustworthy as well as a Fighter which fits in Very Well with Obama's Campaign.

Any Thoughts ?