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Aren't these the results that were PREDICTED?

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grasswire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:36 PM
Original message
Aren't these the results that were PREDICTED?
He won NC, she won IN (after being predicted to lose just a couple of weeks ago).

So how is this such a horrible night for her? Isn't this what was anticipated?

I know the MSM is spinning the whole thing. But then they thought Wright would finish off Barack, too.
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LakeSamish706 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:37 PM
Response to Original message
1. She has not won IN at this point, and in fact he is only behind by about ...
17,000 votes with more vote to still come in.
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Bright Eyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. And they're from an Obama district.
It will be very close, either way.
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Jed Dilligan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:39 PM
Original message
A tremendously populous one, at that.
He will win IN if he gets 60% of Lake County, and he is currently at 75%.
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LakeSamish706 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:39 PM
Response to Original message
8. Right now he holds 65 % in that area... n/t
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SemiCharmedQuark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:37 PM
Response to Original message
2. I believe she needed a good double digit win in IN
and she needed to keep it close in NC
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Jed Dilligan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:38 PM
Response to Original message
4. The fat lady has not sung.
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Kittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:42 PM
Response to Reply #4
11. Yes she has...
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Phillycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:38 PM
Response to Original message
5. No.
She needed to win Indiana decisively, and have a stronger showing in NC, to stay competitive overall. I say this as a Hillary supporter. She is finished, and she knows it, hence her canceling her appearances tomorrow.
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ShortnFiery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:39 PM
Response to Original message
6. Whoa! Have you met Lanny Davis?
:crazy:
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:39 PM
Response to Original message
7. She was expected to win by 4% or so even in the exit polls today
and she needed a double digit victory

The Clintons know its over.

Right now they need 60% victories in the remaining states
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havocmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. And she won't get that in Montana
Hell, even die-hard GOP voters are thinkin Obama looks like the real deal in my GOP county.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:44 PM
Response to Reply #10
19. WOW that is something to think about
:-)
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Terran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:40 PM
Response to Original message
9. Most polls for IN had her up 7-8%, some even more
To win by a margin of a few thousand votes--just 2%--does not look good; it's an unexpectedly bad showing, and she net-loses delegates with respect to Obama.
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Boz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:56 PM
Original message
Survey USA put her up by 15%
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Political Heretic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:43 PM
Response to Original message
12. Honest answer as to why:
His win in NC was SO big that it erased every gain she made with PA. That huge win was very bad in terms of spin as well as practically.

And the fact that IN was not a decisive win for her in any way, virtually a tie, erases any momentum that she had.

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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #12
21. and they were saying she was catching up in N.C. - nope!
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cui bono Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:52 PM
Response to Reply #12
23. It's not even a win yet. Might even be a loss. n/t
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:43 PM
Response to Original message
13. Which is why we said she lost
Weeks ago. There was no way to win. This has all been an exercise in futility, a colossal waste of money and time. She needed a miracle and she didn't get it.
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onenote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:43 PM
Response to Original message
14. she needed to make it close in NC and didn't; needed to win big in IN, and didn't
That's why. And after Wright, the fact that she won (assuming that she hangs on) Indiana by so much less than PA and lost big in NC means her claims of capturing the momentum are no longer operational.
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enki23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:43 PM
Response to Original message
15. there were lots of different predictions
.
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zulchzulu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:44 PM
Response to Original message
16. Last I checked, the spin was she was gaining in NC and had a 10+% lead in Indiana...yesterday
If you watched the cable news punditry, they were saying that Hillary's wins in North Carolina and Indiana "could change the game"... or whatever...

Politics is a strange animal.

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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:51 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. exactly - NYTimes considered all possible scenarios yesterday
both to Obama, both to Clinton, or one each. If they had expected 14% lead in N.C. for Obama and only 2% for Clinton in IN, they wouldn't have written that.
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gcomeau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:44 PM
Response to Original message
17. You stated the reason in your own post.
This was the predicted result before factoring in the Wright resurgence into the national spotlight. Then the media spent over a week hammering it and that was supposed to tank Obama's numbers... and it didn't. At all.

So this result puts the Wright issue to bed for the supers.

It kills, once and for all, ANY hope of her being able to claim popular vote.

It puts the 50th nail in the pledged delegate coffin.

And the supers are going to know all of this and any on the fence will start to move. Every single last metric is against her now. ALL of them. That's why this is such a horrible night for her. She knew it as soon as it happened as well as all the rest of us did, you don't just cancel all your public appearances for the next day after something like this for no particular reason.
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high density Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:44 PM
Response to Original message
18. It makes the math so that Clinton could count FL and MI as they are
and Obama is still winning (remembering of course that Obama has zero votes and delegates out of MI.)
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Orangepeel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:45 PM
Response to Original message
20. because it was about the margins
Clinton's only remaining arguments were momentum and "the popular vote." The numbers in NC and IN blew those away.
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kwenu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:56 PM
Response to Original message
24. IT'S THE MATH!!!!! How many times do we have to say that.
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CakeGrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:57 PM
Response to Original message
25. They finally acknowledged the math
CNN went thru all the popular vote scenarios even factoring in MI and FL, and she was behind in every one.

MSNBC included the Delegate math where she cannot catch up.
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PseudoIntellect Donating Member (701 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:59 PM
Response to Original message
26. Polls suggested +8 in NC and -5 in IN.
Edited on Tue May-06-08 11:59 PM by PseudoIntellect
He outperformed in both states.
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 11:59 PM
Response to Original message
27. Obama totally overtook her popular vote win from PA w/ NC, he will get more delegates
She needed a true game changer like making NC close--didn't happen, instead he is keeping IN close and may win it. After three weeks of Rev. Wrigtht tonight proved that Obama have recovered. The delegate race just got tougher for her.
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ShadowLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-07-08 12:07 AM
Response to Original message
28. Not recently, the latest polls raised expectations
Remember how the polls showed Obama winning New Hampshire by like 8%, well this time most of the polls showed Hillary winning Indiana by at least 5%, maybe as much as 10%. And in North Carolina she was supposed to be getting closer to being within striking distance there and possibly beat Obama, or at the very least not losing by double digits.

Obama's big NC win, and narrow loss in Indiana are a loss for Hillary in the expectation game.
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