Clinton Supporters REJOICE!!! Limbaugh Successfully Getting Republicans Voting For Clinton!

[BlooInBloo]

You guys must be so proud!

http://www.americablog.com/2008/05/limbaugh-is-succeeding-in-getting-his.html

First off, this means that the message from Indiana's results, even after we have them, may not be clear at all. Second, if Rush Limbaugh wants Hillary as our candidate, God help us. It says something that every nutjob on the far right, even after what Obama has been through the past couple of weeks, is still for Hillary. You want a canary in the coal mine of electability, you just got it.

The Indianapolis Star reported online today that it appeared that droves of "hard-core" Republicans are crossing over to vote in the Democratic primary in GOP strongholds in Marion County and suburbs.

Exit polls suggest that Limbaugh's soldiers could have made a difference March 4 in Texas, where Clinton pulled out a narrow win in the primary, though Obama won the simultaneous caucuses....

But today on his program, Limbaugh told "operatives and commandos" that he has received emails from GOP voters that they have not been challenged at the polls. He read one email from one who voted for Clinton: "It was tough. I showered twice, I threw up in my mouth, but I did it."

[zanne]

1. Poor Rush will be SOOOOOOOOO disappointed in November! nt

[Phx_Dem]

2. Hillary loves Operation Chaos.

It's the only way she can win in some states. If not for Limbaugh's goons she wouldn't have won the Texas primary.

(Mrs Phx_Dem)

[kid a]

4. Texas*

Hillary lost on delegates

[Phx_Dem]

11. Yes

indeedy she did so she didn't "win" Texas, but she did win the primaries with Limbaugh's help. If not for him, she wouldn't have won shit.

[sfam]

43. I really don't understand why this isn't illegal. Can someone explain it to me?

I get that it would be impossible to enforce, but if someone goes with the intention of voting for someone they DON'T want to see win, this seems like a complete gaming of the system. Why would we want this to be legal?

[Erin Elizabeth]

46. Depends on the kind of primary the state has.

Some have open primaries, some have semi-open primaries, some have closed primaries. Some have a mixed bag, like Texas: an open primary with a closed caucus (depending on who you voted for that day or in early voting).

In an open primary system, your voter registration card does not indicate a party affiliation. But once you vote in one primary, you can't go vote in the other. So if you REALLY want to vote in the other party's primary, you can. Then forget about voting in yours.

This proved to be problematic in Texas for Hillary. You see SOME Republicans voted for Hillary during the primary (because voting for McCain at that point was silly, he was already the Republican nominee). I've heard figures for Texas that ranged from 1-6% of Hillary votes were from Republicans.

Problem is, you have to be pretty dedicated to go back that night to the caucuses to "vote twice" for your candidate. From everything I can tell, the Republicans who voted for Hillary in the primaries didn't bother with the caucuses that night.

Obama ended up winning the most delegates in Texas for that and a few other reasons (Dem voting patterns in 2006, urban areas, high motivation on the part of Obama supporters, etc).

(She didn't do well in caucus states as a general rule.)

[Exilednight]

48. The way you grow a party is to allow open primaries. In most cases, if a person votes for .........

someone in the primary, they would more than likely vote for that same candidate in the GE provided that candidate won the primary. This is just an odd set of circumstances and consider the source of the person pushing it. Ethics, morality, nor honesty are any of Rush's middle names.

[sfam]

52. But isn't this like someone going for citizenship who really doesn't believe their oath?

I know I'm being silly here, but isn't this similar to someone giving their oath for citizenship but secretly not supporting what they're giving their oath to?

Whether or not it can be enforced, this really should be illegal.

[Erin Elizabeth]

56. Not really.

When you vote, you aren't taking an oath. And people are allowed to switch parties even in states with closed primary systems, so it's not as if it's illegal.

[sfam]

58. I don't mind the switching parties at all. I mind voting for someone you don't really like...

To me its the intention thing that bothers me. If someone is voting for a candidate that they really hate just to stir up trouble on the other side, this just seems inherently wrong to me, and fairly unamerican. Maybe I'm just weird that way, but there SHOULD be an oath that says you are going to vote for who you truly believe is the best candidate for the position.

[Erin Elizabeth]

61. Well, it's dishonest, if that's what you're shooting for.

I'll give you that. It's intellectually dishonest.

But there aren't any rules against it, no. And FWIW, over the years I've been active in my local Dem party I've heard loads of jokes and not-so-much-jokes about voting for so and so in the rep primary just to fuck with them and so they'll get a shitty nom. It goes both ways in an open primary state.

But nine times out of ten? People vote in their own primaries.

[Exilednight]

57. States where it is illegal,not every state allows open primaries, party .....

growth has pretty much stalled out. It's one, of several, of the reasons we keep losing elections. Closing primaries goes against everything we say we stand for. We say that everybody deserves a voice. I would also point out that there is no hard evidence that the people crossing over will not vote for our nominee in November. It's all subjective.

[LSparkle]

3. Or maybe he's just covering for the MASS EXODUS from the Rethug party

Yes, there are lots of crossover voters ... but we don't know WHO they're
voting for or WHY. I think Limpballs (typically!) overestimates his
influence ... He'll take credit for it, but should we believe him???

[cui bono]

20. That's what Randi Rhodes was saying today. That OC is just a cover for them

so they don't have to admit that Repubs are running to the Dem party.

[LSparkle]

26. And the majority of Repugs who are crossing to vote FOR someone ...

are voting for OBAMA! I think Randi's right -- Limpdick is just
looking for an excuse to exaggerate his power. The truth is
people really LIKE Obama and even Rethugs are crossing over
to vote for him.

[rinsd]

36. I can't believe we're handing that asshole credit sans evidence.

Especially when the splits have been pretty even between Hillary and Obama in the exit poll when it come to the GOP vote.

I think you have nailed it.

Why should we believe HIM?

[Lilith Velkor]

75. Because we want to believe True Democrats only vote for the Precious

and votes for HER all come from Rush's mighty army.

Didn't you get the memo? It's been out for two months now.

[DJ13]

5. Im going to ask this again

If the GOP gets Hillary nominated, is she really our nominee......or theirs?

[BlooInBloo]

19. The Obliterator is clearly their sort of candidate.

[scarletwoman]

71. The re-election of Joe Lieberman is a case in point. He would have NEVER won that election

without all the Repugs who crossed over to vote for him. The guy who was the "official" Republican candidate was merely a placeholder, he got no money from the RNC, no push at all, and he got something like less than 20% of the votes in that election.

No, the vast majority of Connecticut Republicans showed up at the polls and voted for Lieberman (of the "Lieberman For Connecticut Party"). The Republicans can fuck us up if they want to -- and they want to, so they do.

sw

[rodeodance]

6. The only one getting wet dreams over this YOU. NO clinton supporter enjoys the Rupugs

interferring in the Democratic Primary.

what a piece of crap you are.

[BlooInBloo]

7. You should be HAPPY! With republicans and bigots you can win sundown town states!!!

Congratulations!!!

[dogday]

37. Read my post # 24

Stop acting like Obama is not getting numerous Republican votes.... both are...

[GoesTo11]

8. She is able to get the Limbaugh vote. Obama isn't..

[peacebird]

18. because Limpballs TOLD his listeners to vote her up so they can defeat her in November... doh!

[Erin Elizabeth]

49. LOL! That's something to be proud of, fer sher!

:rofl:

[jobycom]

9. So when Republicans vote for Obama, it shows crossover appeal, but when they vote for Clinton

it shows some dastardly collusion on her side? Hmm... More Obamaspeak.

[BlooInBloo]

12. Congratulations on your smashing victory - republicans and bigots for Clinton!

Close to unbeatable combination in America.

The rest of us will do our best, however.

But congratulations to you on this single stage of the process.

[NashVegas]

23. Yes. Republicans For Obama = Sincere Voters; Republicans for Hillary =Dittoheads Fucking the Process

Good to see you have that figured out, my friend.

[Window]

25. No, but that ass.... has a very large audience of hateful idiots to do his bidding.

[Hugabear]

32. You want the honest answer? That's exactly what it is!

I really do not understand why this is so difficult for you Hillary supporters to fathom.

Rethugs have despised - loathed - Bill & Hillary since 1992. To the vast majority of rethugs, Hillary is the antichrist. So why do you think that all these rethugs crossing over to vote for Hillary have suddenly had a change of heart? Especially when so many of them talk gleefully about the prospect of facing Hillary in the GE?

You know, sometimes things really are the way they look.

[rucky]

35. It's the Limbaughspeak you should be worried about. n/t

[MADem]

10. When something is going to happen anyway, and an asshole "takes credit" you believe it?

Because he has one or two bigmouths who talk tough to reporters or call in to radio shows? Come on.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/03/us/politics/03crossover.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&adxnnlx=1209921550-5yX1dnwjWc+Yu4aJMfc+Zw&oref=slogin

Since the start of the primary and caucus season in January, Republican voters have been crossing over in increasing numbers to vote in Democratic contests — supplying up to 10 percent of the vote in states that allow such crossover voting — and they are expected to play a pivotal role in the fiercely contested primary here. What is less clear, however, is the motivation for their behavior: are they genuinely attracted by the two Democratic candidates? Or are they mischief-making spoilers, looking to prolong a divisive Democratic fight or support a candidate Mr. McCain can beat in November?

Local Republican Party leaders in Indiana concede the attraction of the Democratic candidates to some of their party members. And interviews with roughly a dozen Republican voters in central Indiana suggest that they are driven mainly by concerns about the economy, with discontent over Bush administration policies driving their involvement in the Democratic race.

“Much as I like John McCain as a war hero, I am fearful he does not have the depth of experience to fix the economy,” said Darlene Boatman, 62, a just-retired sales clerk who favors Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. “We’re all struggling here to make ends meet. I haven’t had health care coverage in about 10 years and jobs are fewer and farther between. The economy is my biggest concern, and I think Hillary has the best understanding of how to pull off the recovery we need.”

The drift has given some comfort to Democrats worried about the searing divisions in their party. Surveys of voters leaving the polls and official vote tabulations indicate that both Mr. Obama, of Illinois, and Mrs. Clinton, of New York, have benefited from the Republican crossover vote, though to different degrees and in patterns that vary by state.

Initially, Mr. Obama seemed to be getting the bulk of the vote, attracting moderate Republicans who quickly came to be known as Obamacans and lacing his stump speech with references to them. But more recently, Mrs. Clinton’s share of the crossover vote has grown.

In Wisconsin’s Feb. 19 contest, for example, Mr. Obama got about three-quarters of the votes cast by those identifying themselves as Republicans. In Texas’ March 4 primary, though, he and Mrs. Clinton split the Republican vote almost evenly, while in Mississippi on March 11, she outpolled him among Republicans by a three-to-one margin.

Of course, when REPUBLICANS vote for OBAMA...that's because they're SINCERE. When they vote for Clinton, just because some fuckstick SEZ so, they have EVIL intent.

How incredibly lame. Not unexepected, but lame nonetheless.

[FlyingSquirrel]

13. On Ed Schultz today someone pointed out that it was only after McCain clinched the nom

that Clinton was able to start slowing Obama down because the Repugs were able to start voting for her instead of other Repigs.

[Tom Rinaldo]

21. No Republicans got to vote in PA...

...unless they switched parties early, and it was the Obama campaign that bragged about their outreach to Republican efforts there.

Clinton tended to do much better in general all along in contests that were closed to Democrats only, it was always Obama who was helped by cross overs. Early on some of those crossovers were Republicans wanting to kill Clinton's career.

[rinsd]

44. Yet she has only beaten soundly in the GOP in MS. Go figure...

Obama won the GOP vote in TX and tied her in OH.

[Erin Elizabeth]

50. There's some truth to this.

Here in Texas, by the time our date rolled around to vote, McCain was already the presumptive nom. We have an open primary system, so about 1-6% (depends on the source you look at) of Hillary's votes that day in Texas came from Republicans crossing over and not voting in their own primaries.

[wowimthere]

14. What's worse is that Dems who support Clinton are rejoicing. They're no better

than the Republicans who are obstructionists. I hope no matter what, Obama wins both states. Independents should flood the primary in Indiana because anyone whose stupid enough to listen to Limbaugh is a dido head.

[Saturday]

15. We understand your MO Obama supporters.

If Hillary wins it's because of Limbaugh. You just can't lose gracefully.

[Lilith Velkor]

76. They can't even win gracefully

What do you expect?

[rodeodance]

16. *****FLAME-BAIT*****

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Lucky 13]

39. Sorry sweetie, but this is just straight up truth.

And you guys can't handle the truth.

[sfam]

47. Is it the Clinton supporters position that Rush hasn't affected the vote, or that...

Those Rush supporters who are voting for Clinton based on Rush's request really do like Hillary?

Is this the position? That either there are no Rush voters or that they secretly like her?

If not, meaning, if there really are slimebags trying to impact the democratic vote for their own nefarious purposes, how do you feel about that?

[rinsd]

55. I prefer closed primaries with allowances for Decline to State voters.

I would say Rush's effect is being overblown.

I also think its funny that every GOP voter for Clinton is a dittohead while every GOP voter for Obama is a convert to the cause.

We sure do love our black & white thinking here in GDP!

[sfam]

60. I think you're overstating it. The concern is that Rush is affecting our vote!!!

I would think all of us would hate that, even those who benefit from it. Perhaps I'm wrong though...

[rinsd]

62. Before Rush's Operation Chaos there was Sean Hannity's Stop Hillary Express were welcomed.

When I drove out to Phoenix in Feb, the only radio station we picked up in the mountains was rw nutjobs(Savage and some other clown I had never heard before).

They preferred Obama to Hillary or McCain.

[sfam]

66. I wouldn't want votes going for Obama from people that hated him any more than I would want...

votes for Hillary cast who hate her.

Bottom line, it is wrong for someone to vote for a candidate that they truly detest. If they are voting for Hillary because they like her MORE than Obama, I have absolutely no problem with that, even if they ultimately will vote for McCain. My concern is if they are voting for Hillary just because it will make McCain's chances better. This is differnet in my eyes.

[rinsd]

67. I would agree. But that involves reading minds or things I rather not involve with the voting proces

But what we are talking about are small percentages of the electorate.

The largest percentage the GOP vote has been so far is 10%.

[sfam]

69. I don't want mind reading. Just an oath to be taken...

I would guess that the VAST majority of those engaging in this horseplay would not do so if they had to take an oath prior to that stating that they are voting for who they see as the best person in that contest.

[rinsd]

70. I don't like oaths as part of the voting process.

Even if generalized in the fashion you put forth.

[sfam]

72. We disagree then...what about just for independents and republicans?

I wouldn't even have a problem only having the oaths for those registered independent and republican; or in the case of a republican primary - independents and democrats. Again, its just a simple personal check against fraud.

[rinsd]

73. I think its akin to presenting photo ids to combat fraud.

Its an obstacle to voting that does not stop the fraud which is largely a non factor.

In CA, the parties can decide whether they want to allow Decline to State Voters (we have an independent party) or smaller parties vote in their primary.

This election the GOPers did not allow Decline to Staters vote in their primary in an effort to derail McCain.

[Skidmore]

74. Relax.

There are no pictures of dead people in the OP.

[PBS Poll-435]

22. Blah

[dogday]

24. Republicans are voting for Obama as well, so what is your point?

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article1752381.ece

http://www.republicansforobama.org/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/01/AR2008020102663.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23394070/

http://georgiaunfiltered.blogspot.com/2007/07/more-georgia-republicans-support-obama.html


I always like to post a little reference to show I am not biased...

Both camps are getting Republican voters, I only hope they vote for the Democrat in the GE....

[pompano]

27. Let them come out in droves....

if they want to play that. I can't think of a better case of electibility concerns for Obama to go to the Super Delegates with.

[dogday]

28. As long as they vote for Democrats now and in the GE

I am fine with it as well.....

[Erin Elizabeth]

53. From what I've found, whenever Republicans are

voting for Obama, it is out of sincere support. I can think of several examples of people right off the top of my head who have voted Republican in the past, but are disgusted enough now with their own party and impressed enough by Obama that they are supporting him. Not to throw things off or to cause chaos, but for real.

I haven't found a single example of the same thing happening on the Clinton side.

[dogday]

65. I don't see it that way.. I see republicans voting for both

of our Democratic Candidates and that is fine as long as they continue voting for Democrats in November...

Neither is different in my book...

[backscatter712]

54. There's a significant difference.

Republicans that vote for Obama do it because they actually like him and want him to be President, because he's a good man and listens to everyone.

Republicans that vote for Hillary do it just to fuck with us - they don't really like her, they're just using her.

[dogday]

64. Republican votes are republican votes

and I really don't care who they are voting for or why... If they continue to vote for the Democrat in GE that's fine with me...

I just don't believe your theory.. both camps are getting the votes and neither are different....

[SurfingAtWork]

29. I'm frankly not worried about the "Rush" effect

Since this was an open primary I have very high confidence the number of Republicans who vote for Obama (because they would actually vote for him) will at the very least wash the Republicans who vote Hillary because Lush told them to.

[rinsd]

30. Again with the BS TX myth. OBama WON the GOP vote in TX.

The only state Hillary has won the GOP vote convincingly was MS.

There's only one candidate that has relied on indies and republican voters in the Democratic primary and it is not Hillary.

[NorthCarolina]

31. Shouldn't this effort by Limbaugh be illegal?

tampering with the election process cannot possibly be a legit tactic.

[BlooInBloo]

38. GOTV efforts should be given a lot of leeway in my opinion. Besides - i LIKE knowing...

... who supports whom.

[rucky]

33. Can they can mail-in for a super-secret deputy badge?

These ditto morons and their oxy overlord are worse than cockroaches.

[mod mom]

34. We saw it in Ohio as well (I hope the super D's are taking this into account):Turned away at poll? C

Turned away at poll? Click here
Some are told to wait - or come back later
BY JESSICA BROWN AND BARRETT J. BRUNSMAN | [e-mail] | [e-mail]

-snip
In that heavily Republican county, officials weren't prepared for the high number of Democratic ballots requested. Some voters waited for more than an hour for new ballots to be delivered; others were asked to come back later or asked to go to the county Board of Elections to vote.

The reason: a wave of "crossover" voting, in which normally Republican voters asked for Democratic ballots. In Clermont County, turnout surged to 43 percent Tuesday - compared with just 31 percent in the 2004 presidential primary.

-snip

Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner said there was also a "crossover problem" in Akron and elsewhere in Summit County where many Republicans and non-enrolled Ohioans voted Democratic.

-snip

Of Clermont County's 128,128 registered voters, 37,714 are registered Republicans and 14,496 are registered Democrats. With all precincts counted, 26,279 people had cast Democratic ballots and 28,032 had cast Republican ballots.

Warren County has 12,440 registered Democrats and 41,377 registered Republicans. With all precincts reporting, that county was reporting 27,855 Democratic ballots cast and 28,683 Republican.

-snip
http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080305/NEWS01/803050380&template=printpicart


GOP voters crossing over in large numbers
Posted by Tom Ott, Michael Scott, Joe Wagner & Maggi Martin March 04, 2008 14:51PM
Categories: At the polls

Poll watchers throughout Ohio are noting large numbers of Republican voters crossing over to vote in the Democratic Primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

In the Republican roost of Chagrin Falls, veteran poll worker Liz McFadden was amazed at the number of people jumping the party's ship. Democrats accounted for 70 percent of the voters in her precinct, one of seven at the village's high school.

"That's a complete reversal of what it normally is, even more so," she said. "I've never seen a switch like this."

The defectors had motives both pure and sinister.

-snip
http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2008/03/gop_voters_crossing_over_in_la.html

FROM OSU ELECTION LAW:

Cross-over voting under Ohio law

March 4, 2008

Edward B. Foley
Director, Election Law @ Moritz
Robert M. Duncan/Jones Day Designated Professor of Law
Moritz College of Law


Blogs at both the Plain Dealer and Dispatch are reporting Republican cross-over votes in the Democratic candidate for Senator Clinton on the ground that she would be an easier nominee for Senator McCain to beat. It is unclear how widespread this phenomenon is and whether, if calculable, could make a difference in either the statewide total popular vote or the awarding of delegates between Senators Clinton and Obama. There is also the question whether it is legal, and if not, whether it is remediable in any way.

Although it is widely reported that Ohio permits Republicans to vote in the Democratic primary (and vice versa), that is not technically true. Ohio law does permit voters to switch party affiliation on the day of the primary, but it has a rather awkward mechanism that attempts to ascertain that the switch is sincere—and to prevent insincere “party-raiding” of the kind that (as described above) is being reported today.

Section 3513.19 of the Ohio Revised Code states that it is the “duty” of poll workers in Ohio “to challenge the right of person to vote” in a particular party’s primary if a poll worker “doubts” the person’s eligibility based on the ground (among others) that the person is "not affiliated with or is not a member of the political party whose ballot the person desires to vote.” The same section further specifies that the poll worker is to determine the voter’s previous party affiliation by examining the voting records of the past two years. If those records show the voter to be a Republican, for example, then before giving the voter a Democratic ballot in the current primary, the statute then directs the poll worker to have the voter sign a “statement, made under penalty of election falsification, that the person desires to be affiliated with and supports the principles of the political party whose primary ballot the person desires to vote.”

This statement is supposed to be the test of the voter’s sincerity in switching party affiliation. Section 3513.20 of the Code make clear that a voter who refuses to sign the statement is to receive a provisional rather than regular ballot. Indeed, even if the voter is willing to sign the statement, but the majority of poll workers at the precinct believe the voter is not sincere in switching parties, then the poll workers are to give the voter a provisional rather than regular ballot.

-snip
http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/freefair/articles.php?ID=367

From the Warren County BOE (Warren is a Republican stronghold outside of Cincinnati where the faux "Level 10 Homeland Security shutdown of the BOE occurred in 2004) web page and found that the democrats voted at 223% of the total Dems in the county. Some turnout!

BALLOTS CAST - TOTAL 57,396
REGISTERED VOTERS - DEMOCRATIC 12,440
REGISTERED VOTERS - REPUBLICAN 41,377
BALLOTS CAST - REPUBLICAN 28,683
BALLOTS CAST - DEMOCRATIC 27,855
source: warren county BOE http://snipurl.com/212z3

http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2008/03/ballot_1.html

Board of Elections Director Jane Platten said Democratic ballots ran out at the Grantwood Golf Course in Solon at 6:15 p.m. "A significant line of people waited 45 minutes to vote," she said. Nobody was turned away, Platten said.

There also was up to a 30-minute delay at the Lonnie Burten Recreation Center, on East 46th Street, in Cleveland, while more ballots were delivered, Platten said.

At least one precinct at Olmsted Falls High School ran out of Democratic ballots, according to Keith Smith, 27. He said he waited about a half-hour before leaving to tend to his family.

from an election integrity list serv:

On Monday Rush Limbaugh was advocating a "strategery" to his
listeners, suggesting that they should vote for Hillary where
possible to prolong Democratic in-fighting, reduce the coffers of the
Democratic nominee by having donors split between two candidates, and
force them to focus on each other rather than bloodying McCain all
the way until the convention.

I'm not at all surprised by crossover in Ohio because that state,
much like Harrisburg, PA where I currently live, is saturated with
stations that carry Limbaugh. I can get his hateful, ignorant
ranting on no less than 6 stations in and around the Harrisburg area.

I'm actually surprised no major news outlets have been talking about
this potential influence on the Ohio and Texas results since they
were so out-of-step with where the party is moving.

Ohio GOP roots for Hillary
BY HOWARD WILKINSON | [e-mail]
One of the worst-kept secrets of the Ohio presidential primary is that Republican party leaders have a candidate they are rooting for on the Democratic side.

Her name is Hillary Clinton, and they believe that if she wins the Ohio primary and goes on to become the Democratic nominee, she will be the one who unites their dispirited and divided party and give them their best chance of keeping the White House this fall.



It is a belief that the Clinton campaign says is wrong-headed and they will campaign across the state for the next three weeks making the argument that their battle-tested, experienced candidate is the only one who can go toe-to-toe with John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee this fall.

She’ll need to do some convincing, fast. For Clinton, Ohio’s March 4 primary is looking more and more critical.

-snip

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080213/NEWS01/302130097







Tuesday, March 4

Don't Call Ohio Too Soon
That's my advice to the news media tonight, in the event of a close Democratic primary. As returns start to come in from Ohio this evening, we should keep in mind circumstances that will probably result in more outstanding ballots on Election Night than in other states, and maybe even more than is typical for Ohio. If that's true, a margin that appears insurmountable on paper -- even with all precincts nominally reported -- may actually be smaller than it appears.

Here are the big things that might cause there to be a large number of yet-to-be-counted ballots than usual on election night:

- Provisional Ballots. Ohio heavily relies on provisional ballots, which are used for people who've moved, who don't have required ID, and whose names don't appear on the registration list when they go to vote, among other things. Most of us probably remember the delay in calling the 2004 election, when Bush led Kerry by some 136,000 votes with approximately 158,000 provisional ballots left to be verified and counted. When these ballots were eventually counted, they cut Bush's margin by about 18,000 votes. In November 2006, an even higher percentage of Ohio voters cast provisional ballots, over 3%. In light of Ohio's new ID rules, still not completely familiar to many voters, and potential problems with its statewide registration list, we can expect lots of provisionals today as well. Voters have 10 days after the election to bring in their information, and it will be a while after that before we know how many of the provisionals will be counted and who they're cast for.

- Residual Votes. These are ballots that don't register a valid vote, at least when they're run through automatic tabulators. They include undervotes (a ballot that doesn't register a choice) and overvotes (a ballot that registers more than the allowed number of choices). Both can sometimes result from ambiguous marks with paper-based voting systems, but some of the undervotes may be recoverable through a manual recount. Under Ohio law, a ballot on which a voter circles the candidates name or makes a mark with an instrument that can't be recognized by tabulating equiment should eventually be counted. As I explained in Sunday's post, we can expect a significant number of residual votes in Ohio today, because a large number of voters will be voting with central-count optical scan equipment that doesn't allow voters to check for mistakes before casting their votes. Cuyahoga County will be especially hard hit, but other counties will also be affected given that voters in touchscreen counties are allowed to vote a paper ballot on request. If the race winds up being tight, it will be important to know how many residual votes there are -- especially in the Cleveland area.

-SNIP
http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/blogs/tokaji/2008/03/dont-call-ohio-too-soon.html

[rinsd]

41. Obama & Hillary tied in the GOP & conservative vote in OH (about 10% of the electorate).

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#OHDEM

[Aloha Spirit]

51. But, if we're going to go with exit polls, Clinton whoops Obama in the "I won't vote for X again in

November" vote.

[styersc]

40. Go Rush Go. Get the best candidate for the party!!!

A broken watch is right twice a day.

[Erin Elizabeth]

42. This:

You want a canary in the coal mine of electability, you just got it.

THAT.

[BlooInBloo]

45. Yup. Combined with Clinton's proven inability to win independents.

[TexasObserver]

59. I don't think there's any doubt that 5-20% of Hillary's voters are Republicans.

Republicans who want to run against her, and will vote against her in the fall.

[Spirochete]

63. Probably different reasons for Repubs voting in the Dem primaries:

1. Limbots who have to have Rush tell them who to vote for.

2. Repubs who figure McCain will lose, and vote for the Dem they consider the lesser of two evils.

3. Repubs who are tired of Bush/McCain, and want someone different.

The third group will vote for a Dem in the GE - if it's THEIR Dem.

That being said - I think Hillary is the candidate that will get the Repubs that are less than enthusiastic about McCain to get up off their couches (or their sisters) to go out and vote Republican in November. They still won't win.

[cbayer]

68. .

[Harry Monroe]

77. It's quite obvious actually

McSame is not inspiring much excitement in the Republican ranks. They're hoping that Hillary, as a Democratic nominee, will bring out the various fractured factions of Republican voters in droves in the General Election. Their wedge issues are not having the same impact. But a Clinton in a General Election, that's something else. It will energize Republican voters like nothing else to come out and vote against her. It's the only thing they've got left and they're desperate. Don't think for a second that Republican voters after all these years of Clinton hating and bashing have suddenly had a change of heart.

Obama as a nominee, despite the garbage thrown at him with the Wright controversy, the "elitist" smear etc., is a marked contrast to old man McInsane. People are hungering for a change of pace after 8 years of the most incompetent, corrupt, dishonest and idiotic Administration in this nation's history. McMoreofthesame does not offer anything new and by himself or against Obama, cannot generate the same response from the Republican faithful as a Hillary nomination would. A Hillary nomination would have the Republicans foaming at the mouth. An Obama nomination would bring out the contrasts between the two candidates, more of the past vs. moving on to the future. Despite the crap and the sideshow issues that Obama has had to deal with, it really is the economy stupid!! Not to mention that most voters can see through the garbage and realize that they want a change in how this country is run, and that gramps offers nothing in that regard and has no real plans to change the status quo.

Hillary would do well to mind the adage, "keep your friends close and your enemies closer". Should Hillary pull it off and secure the nomination, don't expect a lovefest from Rush and Co. It will get very ugly, very quickly. Nothing Rush loves more than bashing Clintons.

And Rush wins either way. If Hillary wins, it'll be a Clinton hatefest and his ratings will soar to heights not seen since the Clintons were last in power.