Delegate MATH, Pledged and Super: What's At Stake Today, and What Obama Needs to Clinch

[tiptoe]

At stake in today's Democratic Primaries: 187 pledged delegates (46% of the remaining 404 pledged delegates)

-  72 in Indiana
- 115 in North Carolina

The "delegate picture" thru May 5:

Obama currently leads Clinton by 1492–1338 in pledged delegates.
In order to gain a majority (1627) of pledged delegates:
– Obama needs 135 (33%) of the 404 remaining pledged delegates
– Clinton needs 289 (72%) of the 404 remaining pledged delegates.

On Feb. 20, Clinton led Obama by 81 super delegates (246–165).
She now leads by 15 (271–256).
Obama has won 91 (78%) of the last 116 super delegates.

*If Obama wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates,
he will need 75 (28%) of the 272 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination.

     1492 Pledged, Current Obama Delegates
     +202 Pledged, Projected Obama Delegates (@ 50% of 404 Remaining Pledged)
     ----
1694 Pledged Delegates, Current + Projected
   
     +256 Super, Current Obama Delegates
     + 75 Super, Uncommitted Obama Delegates (@ 28% of 272 Uncommitted SuperD)
     ----
 331 Super Delegates, Current + Uncommitted
----
   
2025 Total Delegates - Obama Clinches Nomination

*See graph: "Super Delegate Share Required by Obama to Win Nomination by Projected Obama Vote Share in Remaining Primaries"

For Graphs and Updating with latest Primary data: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.xls


Sources:
The Excel Delegate Calculator by TruthIsAll
2008 Democratic Convention Watch

[Pawel K]

1. Math is not a clinton suppoter's strong suit.

[tiptoe]

2. what's probably really at work

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5841286

This Primary contest is not about these two candidates. It is about what these two candidates represent... the principles they embody. This contest is far older than the Primary itself and will continue through the General Election and beyond.

The Clintons brought us Media deregulation. They brought us NAFTA, CAFTA and a "War on the Poor," that was Ronald Reagan's "wet dream." Senator Clinton's voting record on the IWR, the PATRIOT Act, the exportation of cluster bombs and land mines, the identification of Iran's Republican Guard as a "Terrorist Organization," giving Bush a blank check for expanded conflict in the region: ALL of these actions conflict with what she declares she stands for now... WHO REALLY BELIEVES HER?

There is an evil symbiosis between our elected officials and the PACs that fund their campaigns. This symbiosis is evidenced by the contradictions between Senator Clinton's actions and her words. This symbiosis is institutionalized, in the agency of the D.L.C.. This relationship is at the heart of EVERY regressive policy of the United States Government... every covert act of our Defense Establishment... and the perpetuation of extractive, exploitive, neoliberalism by law and execution.

This corruption is at the heart of this battle. It has been since the 50's.
...
The neoconservatives that hijacked our government in the last seven years, have bet EVERYTHING... they have BET THE FARM.... OUR FARM... on their global adventure for Corporate Dominion. Their vision makes Hitler's Thousand Year Reich look like a college fraternity. They don't give a damn about the Democratic Party or even Conservative principles.
...
THEY WILL STOP AT NOTHING.
...

[tiptoe]

3. North Carolina Primary Results site:

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/1875/3058/en/summary.html

[tiptoe]

4. Indiana Primary Results site:

http://www.in.gov/apps/sos/primary/sos_primary08?page=office&countyID=-1&partyID=-1&officeID=36&districtID=-1&districtshortviewID=-1&candidate=

[tiptoe]

5. WRAL - North Carolina Election Results site:

http://www.wral.com/

[tiptoe]

6. Exit Poll Results reported on Huffington Post 6:05PM

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/06/exit-polls-indiana-north_n_100447.html

[jazzjunkysue]

7. I tried it. Even if it's Obama 30%-HRC 70%, Obama still wins.

Where are the HRC people getting the idea she can claim 75% of the remaining delegates?

[tiptoe]

9. Hillary and DLC do not need America, except to service their multinational corporate priorities.

see link at #2.

Hillary and the DLC are pro-corporate at expense of Constitution, Human Rights, Environment, the Democratic Party...see #2. Very ugly/vulgar/alien to me.

I'd put her on a ticket back to Walmart and OUT of the Democratic Party altogether. That's probably her/their intention anyway: divide the Democratic Party with the "Nuclear Option"

She's being propped up by the *Co RW as their "get out of jail card" for the murdering, war criminal, treasonous, democracy-saboteur scumbags that President Election-Fraud and his cronies truly are. And with her, I doubt curiosity about the truth of 9/11 and immediate deaths of 3300+ American citizens and consequential deaths of 4000 American soldiers, 1.22 million Iraqis dead, injuries to a million more, creation of 5 million orphans extends beyond that of * itself. Toss RW-protege Arnold Sch*zenegger in there as well: Ken-Lay shill and crook to the tune of $9Billion against the People of California.

[progressoid]

8. nice summary.

This will make my dinner go down easier tonight.