Predictions for North Carolina and Indiana - Obama on Top

[stevenleser]

http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/diarypage.php?did=7273
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May 6, 2008

By Steven Leser

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Obama is the big winner today in the North Carolina and Indiana Primaries. I predict that Hillary wins Indiana 53-47 and Obama wins North Carolina 55-45.

People are going to read the above and ask, "Isn't that a split? Why are you calling that a win?"

The answer is two-fold. First, Hillary needs around 68% of the vote in all remaining contests to catch Obama in the delegate count. Any result where Hillary fails to get 68% is a win for Obama. Not only doesnt she get 68%, but since Obama wins North Carolina, the last remaining big state by significant numbers, Hillary ends the day further behind in delegates than when the day began. She probably loses by at least the margin of delegates she gained from Pennsylvania.

Both camps suggested yesterday that the contest will continue to June 3rd but after today, the argument for Hillary to continue becomes significantly weaker.

Is there a possibility for an upset in either state? In North Carolina, the answer is no. The only question there is Obama's margin of victory. In Indiana, the margin of victory for Hillary could be very tight. A significant shift in turnout could swing the contest 5% in either direction, more than enough for Obama to eke out a small victory. If that happens, look for a Hillary concession tomorrow. I am not predicting that, but it could happen.

[Evergreen Emerald]

1. The answer is the different standard used for a Clinton win

If Obama wins by 7 votes (not seven points, SEVEN VOTES) That is a huge win by DU standards.

When Clinton wins by nearly 10% points (not ten votes TEN PERCENT), that is a huge win for Obama.

The goal posts are moved by Obama every time Clinton wins.

[stevietheman]

3. Clinton is the champion goal-post mover.... it doesn't make sense that Obama...

is moving any goal posts, since he has been the clear front runner since Wisconsin. Hillary clearly has had to jump particular mathematical hurdles to make any headway, and it just isn't happening.

[saltpoint]

5. I think basketball is the more appropriate sport for Obama, not

football, and Obama's shown to be an adept at hoops. Not a bad thing in basketball-crazy places like Indiana.

I'm in agreement with many on DU and elsewhere that Mrs. Clinton's gas tax holiday pandering will wound her today in NC and IN. More permanent problem-solving is required than a summertime temporary fix. Obama scores significant points with those voters today.

Also, the Clinton slam on economists as "elitist" was horseshit of the worst kind.

The Clinton campaign, these last few weeks, feels like 6 hours in the nostaligia store at a Cracker Barrel.

[Evergreen Emerald]

13. you are forgetting her significant long-term plan for the "fix"

She has a two-fold plan: immediate temporary, and long-term permanent.

Of course, you would not be purposefully leaving out that part and making is seem as if Obama was the only one with a long-term plan, would you?

[saltpoint]

14. No, I would not, since on the stump she herself sets forth only the

temp fix.

And she does it to pander.

[Evergreen Emerald]

15. That is not true. Every time I have heard her speak on the subject

she mentions both the long term and temporary.

[saltpoint]

24. You should read better papers, then.

She shouldn't be mentioning it at all, actually. She's pandering left and right.

Check that -- it's mostly all Right and hardly any Left to speak of.

[Evergreen Emerald]

32. I don't think its the papers. I think it is the glasses

I don't have on Obama goggles.

[saltpoint]

35. Then you lack vision.

[yellowcanine]

9. Lot of pot kettle blacking there. The Clinton campaign is the master of flexible goalpost spinning.

[saltpoint]

10. Agree. It's been one of their trademarks this winter and spring.

I think that huge snow shovel order back for the Iowa caucus was actually to dig up goal posts throughout the campaign.

[stevenleser]

11. So, I take it "ignored" talked about moving goalposts? That IS funny!!!

Wasnt she supposed to drop out if she lost Texas? She lost, but she didnt drop out.
Wasnt she supposed to drop out if she didnt win Pennsylvania by a 10% margin. She didnt win by 10%, but she didnt drop out.

Those are just off the top of my head. What about my post suggested I was moving goalposts? When did I predict that Obama would sweep today's contests?

Hillbot logic, ya gotta love it.

[saltpoint]

12. With the big bucks and huge lead HClinton had all last summer and long

into the late fall of 2007, she ought to have hired a couple speech writers.

For some reason she didn't believe she needed to.

She was wrong.

[stevenleser]

19. Its amazing how we all forget that in day to day conversations about this race...

Hillary was the presumptive nominee that no one saw any possibility of catching. It took her campaign three months to figure out how to even start playing even with Obama, and that involved the most disgusting of dirty politics and race baiting. From the time the conventions end to election day is around three months. During those three months, Tuzla, travelgate, Monica-gate and China spy/campaign funding-gate will be the featured acts in a huge torrent of stuff the RNC has been cataloging for the past 8-16 years. And those things involve official duties, not crazy pastors.

[saltpoint]

27. Keen points. Hillary Clinton led the Dem pack for the entire calendar year,

2007. From January on through Christmas Eve. In Iowa, Obama and Edwards outflanked her a little over a week later, but she had the commanding position and a boatload of money, plus a fawning media, for a whole year, and in very short order blew it all.

[Evergreen Emerald]

17. you guys keep saying that, but I have only seen the goal posts

moved by Obama.

[verges]

16. Hillary is in second place.

She has to gain on Obama. Obama is in a comfortable lead. All he has to do, to maintain that lead, is tread water. If Clinton NEEDS 68%, all Obama has to do is keep her from getting that. Therefore, if Clinton only gets 60%, she technically wins; but Obama wins by keeping her below 68%, even though he only gets 40%! That's why the goalposts are different in this instance. If Obama were in second, the goals would be reversed.

Also, as we get closer to the end, Clinton's needed percentages get higher every time she doesn't meet a goal. For example: if she needs to win every contest from this point by 68%, and only gets 55%, she will then need to make up that lost 13%! She would then have to win every contest by an even higher percentage than 68%. and so on, and so on....

[stevenleser]

18. I think that number goes into the 70's after today. When people here like

Phriggindumbass (sorry, dont know exactly how he spells his handle) come out with the actual numbers it will be staggering. Not only that, those huge percentages also mean that Obama needs fewer and fewer of the uncommitted superdelegates to seal the deal. Hillary already needs something like 60% of the remaining Superdelegates to win. That was before today. That number is going to start going up.

It is going to get to the point pretty quickly where even if Hillary gets 2/3rds of the remaining Superdelegates, she will not win. I dont see any potential superdelegate revolt being that size or larger.

[verges]

20. My numbers

are purely for illustrative purposes.

[stevenleser]

22. Mine too. I think they are right but we'll know for sure when

Phriggindumbass posts his figures.

[Jennicut]

29. That is hilarious. Hasn't Hillary and co moved the goalposts every few days?

First its pledged delegates, then its minus caucus states, then its popular vote but only after FL and Mich are added in, then its the GE #'s, and finally its big states and winning the white working class. Is there not any conviction in this woman about what counts and what does not? I am sure Obama will win NC and Hillary will win Indiana and nothing will change until the superdelegate make their final decision because there simply are not enough delegates left for one candidate to "win" the final amount needed to take the nomination.

[stevenleser]

31. Hillary is slippery as an eel on everything except belligerance toward Iran

I think her goalposts sometimes move several times in a day.

Convictions? Hillary don't need no stinkin' convictions!

[Window]

2. Sounds good to me Steven.

:kick:

[Secret_Society]

4. Obama surrogate on MSNBC...

lowering expectations big time. Talking about the fact Clinton had the Governor and campaigned hard. Emphasized that she won't catch up in pledged delegates. Maybe it's closer that we think. Hard to read these expectations hopeful I guess. The governor thing just stood out cause that is such a weak argument because he does not have a strong machine.

[stevenleser]

6. And Hillary supporters are doing the same thing. All are playing the expectations game...

I wouldnt read anything into that.

[flor de jasmim]

7. times change, eh?

Not having a big political machine behind him is framed as bad...

[Yurovsky]

8. A lotta good it did HRC...

[my3boyz]

26. Perhaps they have learned to lower expectations after the Barack slip abt PA being close. nt

[my3boyz]

30. Spoke to soon..according to First Read Obama said Indiana will be close. nt

[Texas Hill Country]

21. more with the math argument lol... you guys keep telling yourself that it matters lol

[npincus]

23. Chapeau Cat says Obama takes Indiana by a whisker!

My kitty, Pearl!

[stevenleser]

25. I love your cat! Give pearl some milk and fish from me!

;-)

:yourock:

[npincus]

28. why thank you!

She a natural breed called "Turkish Van"- we adopted her from an animal rescue group... Pearl was in a high-kill shelter at the time.

When i refresh her 2% milk bowl today, I'll tell her it's from you! :)

:hi:

[B Calm]

33. My wife, my son, my daughter in law, and myself all voted today in IN for Obama

Tomorrow would be a great day if Hillary resigns from the race and throws her support for Obama!

[stevenleser]

34. Oh I so hope that will happen!!!!!

A big disembodied boot needs to appear behind her arse that boots her out of this race.