Carville and Al Hunt: Obama in big trouble if he loses both NC and Indiana Tuesday

[Tropics_Dude83]

James Carville provides the (colorful) color commentary. "The onus is on her," Carville tells Newsweek's Eleanor Clift. "She's got to do better than tie. If she wins Indiana and North Carolina, she's the nominee. She's got to shock the system, and she may be shocking it."

Bloomberg's Al Hunt predicts a superdelegate flood if Obama sweeps both states: "If Obama wins those contests on May 6, the Democratic nomination will be over. There are scores of so-called superdelegates waiting to embrace the Illinois senator. Victories in the two states will open the gates, even Clinton supporters acknowledge privately," Hunt writes.

"Conversely, if Senator Clinton, 60, of New York wins in both states, that would take the odds of an Obama nomination from near certain to merely even," Hunt adds.

Also, of note, Insider Advantage has North Carolina as just a 3 point Obama race and they note some potential for a Clinton upset.

The article I found this at is at http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105288&page=1

[jefferson_dem]

1. Broken link...

Which is apropos given that these are two broken talking hacks.

[Tropics_Dude83]

4. Corrected n/t

[jefferson_dem]

7. ...

:thumbsup:

[Triana]

2. Hillary will NOT win NC. Unless it's done illegally. n/t

[cjsmom]

8. inflammatory charge

And it seems to be used often around here.

[Window]

14. You are aware that these things happen?

[MaineDem]

3. So is Clinton. Even more so. n/t

[rocktivity]

5. Unless she gets at least 69% of the vote in ALL the remaining contests

Hillary will be in even DEEPER trouble.

:eyes:
rocknation

[John Q. Citizen]

6. Didn't Carville lobby the judge in favor of Scooter? Who cares what that Republican thinks? He lies.

when his mouth is moving.

[WeDidIt]

9. The only way Obama is in trouble is if he takes 78 or fewer delegates

Otherwise he's fine.

HE only need 42% of all remaining delegates to win. If he takes 79 delegates on Tuesday he achieves this threshold. If he takes more than 79 total delegates, he decresases the percentage of remaining delegates required for him to win.

[cali]

10. True enough. But there's no indication he'll lose NC and HIll

is already in deep shit. She'll be even deeper in trouble if Obama makes it close in IN. And sorry, one poll that makes it close, is not enough to assume she can win in NC. Hell, there's a poll showing Obama ahead in IN. I'm not silly enough to believe it.

[Tropics_Dude83]

11. I believe that the thinking is that the superdelegates

That Obama has amassed will defect en masse should he lose both states and since he can't win the nomination without a sizable block of superdelegates, it'd be all over for him. Or, at the very least, it would cause as CNN put it yesterday a "whoah" moment and a crisis in the party.

[WeDidIt]

15. Not really. They are capable of doing math

Carville and Hunt only want drama. Carvile, because it's the only way for Hillary to keep going. Hunt, because he's a media elitist and the revenues being generated fromt eh extended primary affects his own pocket.

[speedoo]

12. Obama has a much better chance of winning Indiana than Hillary has..

of winning NC.

Most likely a split.

And Carville's full of shit anyway.

[Tropics_Dude83]

13. Al Hunt isn't though-I've loved him for years-n/t

[speedoo]

16. I agree. But your OP heading is somewhat misleading.

Hunt is reliable as an objective observer, Carville is not. But your heading seems to reflect Carville more than Hunt.

[stray cat]

17. Hillary in big trouble if she doesn't win NC and Indiana

What do you bet they each take home one?

[Triana]

19. Obama - NC | Hillary - IN (n/t)

[zulchzulu]

18. CarVILE has his alien head up his ass

North Carolina has 115 delegates up. Obama will get at least 70 of them. Clinton may get 40 or so. Obama will add to his lead by 30 more delegates. If Clinton wins Indiana by 5%, she will get perhaps 40 delegates to Obama's 30+ delegates, which are 72 in total.

The bottom line is that Obama will get another 35 or more delegates to add to his insurmountable lead to Clinton. It will continue to show that Obama IS the nominee and that it's Clinton that needs to face facts that she lost.

Obama will have about 1,800+ delegates to Clinton's 1,375. Game. Over.

[otohara]

20. If, If, If, If, If

If only Hillary were ahead, if only she had more money, if only Bill had kept his mouth shut in S. Carolina, if only Sen. Obama was white, if only small states didn't count.

If only I were a talking head.