++++!!ELECTORAL UPSET IN GUAM - HILLARY TIES OBAMA!!!++++

[Austinitis]

Or at least that's what the Obama people are going to have to say, since they're the ones who claim that only delegates matter and Obama didn't pick up even one delegate. Pretty good for Hillary, given that Obama was expected to score a substantial win according to CNN.

All of this is yet more evidence of Obama's recent electoral free-fall over the last few weeks.

[stray cat]

just like the tie in Texas

[Yael]

4. Or his 13-12 pledged delegate victory in Nevada

15-14 if you count announced supers...

[Yael]

1. Recent free fall?

:rofl:

[virtualobserver]

2. since a 2-2 split was their prediction months ago, they were right again

[Austinitis]

18. Check CNN - they were describing Guam as an expected Obama win n/t

[Bensthename]

79. They said Guam should go to O because he won HI(Hello he was from Hawaii, they are 4000 miles apart)

They want her to win so bad. I predect half of them will kill themselves win she quits..

[rodeodance]

37. ... but the Obama campaign expected him to win by 11%

Obama wins by a fraction of 1%.... but the Obama campaign expected him to win by 11%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html

[dbmk]

45. Which in delegates translates to the same

Not getting the percentages exactly right on 4500 voters, with little to no polling, can sort of be excused. If you asked the guy who punched it in, it was probably SEVERELY guestimated and those numbers only picked to signify a popular vote win.
They got the numbers that count right.

Mind you, noone in the media had any clue as to how it would go. Even on the day. And that spreadsheet was made months ago. Guam was a deadzone as far as predictions go.

[yourguide]

3. HAHAHAHAHA...

what are you talking about? There are a total of 4 pledged delegates in guam. it was always projected to be split at 2 delegates each.


Is this you at your computer?

[FrenchieCat]

8. Yep....that's him!

:rofl:

[mudesi]

5. Are you people capable of being logically consistent?

Or are those skills similar to your math skills?

[rodeodance]

39. Obama wins by a fraction of 1%.... but the Obama campaign expected him to win by 11%

Obama wins by a fraction of 1%.... but the Obama campaign expected him to win by 11%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/Obamas_projections.html

[sunnystarr]

51. Congrats you just won my ignore feature (nt)

[npincus]

6. Guam doesn't have "electoral" votes.

It's not a state.

[democrattotheend]

7. Obama's spreadsheet predicted a 2-2 split

The leaked spreadsheet a couple months ago predicted a 2-2 split for guam's delegates.

[DerekJ]

9. Austinitis: Link to one source that said: "Obama is expected to score a substantial win"

[yourguide]

12. Is this his source?

[Austinitis]

21. Is this yours?

[yourguide]

29. I'm not the one claiming HRC is tied...

So it must be you that's:

[AZBlue]

81. Yeah, I tried that on another thread with another Clinton fantasizer.

Got the same response you did: crickets.

[rocktivity]

10. Actually, that just might happen

...With only Dededo left to count, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus. Clinton will need to win Dededo by 204 votes to overtake Obama. Dededo is Guam’s most populous village...
(link)

:rofl:
rocknation

[rocktivity]

16. Actually, that DID just happen!

BREAKING NEWS 8:50 a.m. - Obama wins Guam caucus

8:50 a.m. — When all of the ballots were finally counted -- a process that lasted through the night until well after the sun was up -- Sen. Barack Obama had the most votes from Guam Democrats in the party’s caucus held yesterday.

Obama finished with 2,264 votes to Sen. Hillary Clinton’s 2,257 votes – a 7-point difference. Obama never trailed from the first vote count on.

Obama won 14 of 21 districts. Most districts that were won by Clinton were by small margins.

Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina, 151 in Inarajan, 46 in Asan, 55 in Chalan Pago, 87 in Santa Rita, 102 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 28 in Hagåtña, 158 in Barrigada, 36 in Merizo, 49 in Piti, 131 in Sinajana, 108 in Agana Heights, 194 in Mangilao 192 in Tamuning, 27 in Umatac, 76 in Talofofo, 224 in Yigo, 104 in Yona, 127 in Agat and 313 in Dededo for a total of 2,264 votes.

Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina, 87 in Inarajan, 33 in Asan, 87 in Chalan Pago, 73 in Santa Rita, 81 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 29 votes in Hagåtña, 166 in Barrigada, 33 in Merizo, 51 in Piti, 89 in Sinajana, 105 in Agana Heights, 155 in Mangilao, 193 in Tamuning, 24 in Umatac, 52 in Talofofo, 211 in Yigo, 98 in Yona, 141 in Agat and 509 in Dededo for a total of 2,257 votes.


rocknation

[WeDidIt]

11. Delegates are what the thing is about.

Popular vote is the tie breaker.

Hence, New Hampshire was a win for Clinton even though it was a tie in delegates.

[Maribelle]

13. Ha ha ha

I'm loving the spirit of Hillary's supporters. They are so great! :toast:

[anigbrowl]

14. Austinitis - a disease that may cause overconfident candidates to lose Texas

Meanwhile, the rest of the world calls it a win for Obama. Actually, it'll be interesting to see what happens since apparently delegates in Guam have some agreement to vote en bloc rather than proportionally. I'm not sure what the outcome of this will be, or whether they are granted some exception to the DNC primary rules.

http://www.mvariety.com/?story_id=6491&module=displaystory

[dbmk]

53. That does sound like a breaking of the rules - or at least the spirit of them.

[williesgirl]

15. As of right now, Wash Post says Obama leading?????????????

[Austinitis]

20. Not by enough to pick up any delegates n/t

[cascadiance]

78. Doesn't need to! Him tying requires Hillary to win MORE delegates to catch up now!

Folks from the Clinton camp just don't get it. In order to even stay on pace with the pace they need to come close with pledged delegates, she needed to win 3 or 4 of the delegates here. She DIDN'T. So whether she finished barely ahead or barely behind in delegates, with a 2-2 split it doesn't matter, Obama comes out ahead today with a tie!

[benddem]

17. News from Guam

Obama won! http://www.dailykos.com

[Austinitis]

19. That's a tie

According to Obama supporters. He didn't get any extra delegates.

[mucifer]

22. He doesn't need the extra delegates, Hillary does.

[Austinitis]

25. She won't need them either if Obama keeps tanking like this.

He probably won't do well Tuesday. He did badly in Penn. He's going to lose West Virginia. He's going to lose Kentucky. He's going to lose Puerto Rico.

Seriously, who's going to want someone who looks like that big a loser come June?

[yourguide]

31. Earth to austinitis

Obama: 30 states won...(plus one territory)

HRC: 15 states won

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.

[Austinitis]

40. For a group of people who spend all their time talking about how irrelevant the popular vote is

Obama supporters sure are good at citing irrelevant metrics.

[Name removed]

42. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[gal]

69. Tanking?

Who is leading in popular vote?
Who is leading in delegates?
Who is leading in fundraising?
Who is leading in states won?

Who has tanked?

[goclark]

80. Who hasn't paid their bills to those that labor in her behalf?

Money owed to poor working people?

Who can't manage their budget and wants to bring us out of a Recession?

Her Budget Sheet is in the toilet and she is going to give us confidence at 2 PM?
I don't think so, I wouuldn't trust her at 12 noon or at 10 PM when she is slugging down the Crown Royal.

No way HCBC, no way! :scared:

[NeedleCast]

30. Newsflash! Hillary can't afford ties

[bhikkhu]

23. If you intended satire, thanks for the laugh!

The interpretive twists are reasonable turn about in this long primary.


If you didn't intend satire, thanks just the same.

[Catchawave]

24. All this excitement over 2 delegates.....lol....

Edwards'39 are suddenly more important than EVAH! That's a HUGH amount!!!1!

:hi:

[quantass]

26. Nah..its bregging rights of another +1 Win...One less win for Hillary makes it a tougher sell

that momentum is on her side.

[IndianaGreen]

27. Sen. Barack Obama wins Guam's Democratic presidential caucuses by 7 votes.

On CNN crawler now!

[Austinitis]

32. It's a tie in delegates

which the Obama camp keeps insisting is the only metric that matters...

[yourguide]

33. WAKE UP!!!

It is a tie in delegates because NO candidate broke 65%...and NO candidate was predicted to do that...it's a net net ZERO.

[Austinitis]

35. Obama was expected to win. That makes this an upset.

Go watch some CNN. Looks like you're the one who needs to wake up...

[yourguide]

41. I have been watching CNN

you have yet to provide a link to ONE POLL that states that, in fact an analyst started laughing at one of the talking heads for saying that because Guam is 3000 MILES away from Hawaii. It's like comparing Atlanta with SF. Oh stop.

[dbmk]

49. And you need to apply source critique

They are pulling that idea out of their behind. There were no numbers available to support any theories. So thats all it was. Pundits shooting the shit.

[dbmk]

47. Actually the threshold was 56.25%

as there was 8 ½-delegates in play. 56.25% would give a 2,5-1,5 split.

[yourguide]

52. 4 pledged

the rest supers. The math remains 60+ to get the 3 to 1 split.

[dbmk]

56. No.

There is 4 pledged delegate _votes_ but they are split over 8 actual delegates.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/dbmk/1

[yourguide]

58. Yes and another 5 supers

Are you certain about that 56%? reports earlier had the number +60. I think they still have to declare as whole delegates.

[dbmk]

72. There seems to be some rumors flying around

.. that the entire Guam block will vote as one for one candidate. Not sure the DNC exactly supports that, even if possibly can be seen as each delegate acting on their own will.

Pretty sure its bogus though.

As far as reports earlier, there is almost noone in the media that is not talking out their ass on stuff like this. Rules and reading them is anathema to being a pundit or "journalist" these days.

The do not have to declare as whole delegates. That sort of defeats the purpose of having dem split in the first place.

I am well aware of the supers. But thats beside the point about %threshold you raised originally. That I had to correct.

[gal]

73. A win is a win

Obama is the first candidate to say "a win is a win"
Clinton and her supporters have been repeating that since a week before PA. A win is a win.
:woohoo:

[billyoc]

28. She's definitely got the Joementum now. All she has to do is tie Obama from now on and

Oh, right, nm.


:rofl:

[Jed Dilligan]

34. They elected two Obama supers as well

[thevoiceofreason]

36. Sorry, Mr. 3-1 sure thing for Hillary

[BlueIdaho]

38. And now the hill that HRC must limb gets just a little bit steeper...

What percent must she now win the rest of the primaries by to TIE Obama?

[bigwillq]

55. It's a draw in Guam

Each are probably going to split the four delegates.

[BlueIdaho]

63. True - one less opportunity for Clinton to move closer to Obama.

She must now win by more in succeeding primaries - thus a steeper climb.

[Exilednight]

43. The Hillary has to admit defeat, since only popular votes count for her. n/t

[dbmk]

44. Haha!

Noone had ANY clue as to how it would go. If anything it had been chalked up to Hillary for a long time. But that was also based on very sketchy speculation.

2-2 or 2,5-1,5 either way was likely. Either way it wasn't expected to move much - if anything. And it didn't.
Calling it an electoral upset and wearing out your + key over that, seems a tad excessive.

[Austinitis]

48. CNN expected a major Obama win n/t

[yourguide]

54. You must have been watching the OTHER CNN

Clinton Noise Network.

[Austinitis]

57. I suspect you don't know the acronym because you don't really read the news much.

That would go some way towards explaining why you don't think this is a major Obama loss.

[yourguide]

59. DUDE!!! Wake up!!!

It's 4 whole DELEGATES...ALWAYS PREDICTED TO SPLIT 2-2. With a total of 4500 TOTAL caucusers.

This is not a major loss for anyone!

[Adelante]

46. She was supposed to take Guam in a walk

That's what I've been hearing from pundits for weeks. He is the one who upset her expected victory.

[Austinitis]

50. Not according to CNN

[yourguide]

60. HRC expected to win guam

http://cbslocalblogs.prospero.com/n/blogs/blog.aspx?webtag=kyw_backroom&entry=3

[Austinitis]

68. Not according to CNN

[Tellurian]

61. Obama was supposed to take Guam easily...

According to CNN's latest estimate,

Obama has a total of 1,734 delegates (1,491 pledged delegates, 243 superdelegates).
Clinton has a total of 1,597 delegates (1,332 pledged delegates, 265 superdelegates).

[Bill McBlueState]

62. you're this pumped over a tie?

In the coming weeks, Clinton needs to do a lot better than rack up ties to have any chance of catching Obama in pledged delegates.

You're moving the goalposts all the way to the 50 yard line.

[Tellurian]

64. Obama was supposed to win Guam by 60 %

and shut out Hillary. what does that tell you?

[Bill McBlueState]

66. can you provide a source for that 60%?

I wasn't aware of any polling.

[Milo_Bloom]

71. She post 70 for sources... Clinton was expected to win.

[dbmk]

74. Here you go again

Spouting numbers that have ZERO grounds in reality. As someone else has requested: Source, please.

[Orangepeel]

65. "Obama was expected to score a substantial win." Nonsense. Guam was always expected to split.

If CNN says otherwise, they are trying to rewrite history.

[Austinitis]

67. It's not "rewriting history" just because CNN is reporting a part of history that you don't like...

[dbmk]

76. They are NOT reporting history

They are reporting what one of their pundits probably pulled out of his ass, so they would have SOMETHING to say - about a race where noone really knew anything. If the campaigns had some internal polling done, they both kept quiet on it.

If they had reported history, that would mean something that had transpired and that you would be able to back it up with fact.

Pulling out of ass does not qualify.

[Milo_Bloom]

70. Clinton was expected to win Guam easily.

"Mr Obama is expected to prevail in North Carolina, Oregon, Montana and South Dakota; Mrs Clinton in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Guam, a territory that votes on May 3, only offers four delegates."

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3804093.ece

"The next outing is in Guam on May 3 and there are only four delegates at stake but, for what it is worth, she is expected to win the most votes there."

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article3801264.ece

[Zodiak]

75. But you see, CNN must be the ONLY station that is right

...because it reported something that already fits Austinitis' worldview.

So forget all those links and stuff. They don't know THE math.

This would all be funny, of course, if it was not so pathetic. Talk about Baghdad Bob.

[The Doctor.]

77. LOL!!!! Citing a close race in GUAM is all the Clinton supporters have left?!?

Oh, that's great!

I won't even go into the preliminary accounts of fraud yet... even that couldn't hand her the four delegates.

It's over people.

[JoFerret]

82. Gleeful jeering is always good.

.

[The Doctor.]

84. It can be looked at one of two ways;

'Sad' or 'Amusing'.

When you see posts like this, it reveals the hopelessness of the campaign and the fact that, at some level, Clinton supporters have realized it's over.

I have very little tolerance for the self-deluded, as those types have been responsible for letting immeasurable harm come to our country. I used to give them the BOTD, but I've quite had enough after 7 years of Bush. Laughing may not seem charitable, but it is infinitely moreso than any other response I have.

If people don't want to be 'jeered', then they should think about the significance of what they are trying to say and the inherent concessions therein.

This OP is an admission that it's all over while posing as a 'yeay we win!' post.

Like I said, That's either sad or amusing.

I was being kind.

[Political Heretic]

83. Wow, Guam wasn't on my radar either for a YAY Obama or BOO Clinton

Are we really supposed to care about this? Either way?