Rasmussen: Oregon Democratic Primary - Obama 51%, Clinton 39%

[Bigleaf]

Saturday, May 03, 2008

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Oregon Democratic Presidential Primary shows Barack Obama enjoying a twelve-point lead over Hillary Clinton. It’s Obama 51%, Clinton 39%.

Obama is viewed favorably by 78% of the state’s Likely Primary Voters, Clinton by 71%. Fifty percent (50%) of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 56% of Clinton voters hold a positive view of Obama.

Eighty-two percent (82%) say that if Clinton is the nominee, they will vote for her over John McCain in the fall. An identical number, 82%, say they will vote for Obama over McCain.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/oregon/oregon_democratic_primary

[Scurrilous]

1. Good news.

K & R :thumbsup:

[thewiseguy]

2. Thanks for the good news

[LWolf]

3. Rasmussen didn't poll me, lol.

I wonder how many people east of the cascades they include in a democratic poll? :shrug:

I won't be voting for Obama.

[thewiseguy]

4. Yes and Gallup did not poll me for their national numbers

I wonder how many people they poll from my area :eyes:

[LWolf]

19. I don't know; do you?

Know how many people they poll from your area?

Of course, this isn't a national poll. It's a state poll.

It's also reality that the political demographics are different east of the cascades than west.

[davepdx]

22. This may not be as specific as you would want but...

The SUSA poll released 5/1 breaks out Portland from the rest of the state. It shows that Obama leads Clinton 49% to 46% in Portland and that Obama leads Clinton 52% to 40% in the rest of Oregon. The overall results for all of Oregon indicated Obama ahead of Clinton by 50% to 44%.

SUSA results here.

Edit: spelling

[scheming daemons]

5. You're in the 39%.... congrats.

[LWolf]

17. No, I'm not.

I won't be casting a vote for Clinton.

Two-dimensional thinking. :eyes:

[hokies4ever]

10. You're part of the 39% idiots supporting the McCain-Clinton gas tax pandering

:rofl:

[LWolf]

15. Since when?

Since your narrow, limited brain can't see beyond 2 dimensions?

[swishyfeet]

People east of the Cascades voted for 8 years of Bush

And it sounds like you'll be voting for McCain. Good for you.

fwiw, they didn't poll me on the west side.

[LWolf]

30. Why does it

"sound like I'll be voting for McCain?"

If that's what you think, you obviously haven't been listening throughout my last 5.5 years and 19,467 posts here at DU.

I'd suggest improving your listening skills, lol.

[swishyfeet]

31. Maybe this: "I won't be voting for Obama"

[LWolf]

34. That's an inaccurate conclusion based on a logical fallacy.

Not voting for Obama is not the same thing as "voting for McCain." One doesn't lead to another.

It's a good thing your logic doesn't drive my vote, lol.

[swishyfeet]

36. Hang on while I look that up...

Nope. Still don't get it... Math is more my specialty. Perhaps we both have some lernin to do.

[LWolf]

37. I don't have any trouble with math.

Or with logic, or with listening.

Not voting for Obama, whether in the primary under current discussion or the GE next fall, does not mean I'm voting for McCain by any stretch of fantasy.

Yours is a pretty typical response, but reality, math, and logic don't support it.

[datopbanana]

39. Any vote for someone besides the DEM nominee or any non-vote is a vote for mccain

its not that hard to figure out

[LWolf]

40. That's the inaccurate talking point I'm referring to, lol.

First of all, I'm a Democrat. I CAN'T VOTE FOR MCCAIN IN MY PRIMARY, which is the contest under discussion.

Secondly, a write-in vote in November is a vote for the candidate written in; it doesn't get added to McCain's total.

It obviously doesn't count for Obama, if he is the nominee, either, but that's not a subtraction. He has to earn votes; they aren't automatically owed to him.

The same holds true for a 3rd party vote. I could end the unappetizing wrangling easily enough with a vote for McKinney, who is both black and female. I like her better than either of the two current possibilities. Regardless, whatever I do with my vote in November, and I won't be making any decisions until after the convention, it won't count for McCain.

If Democrats want my vote to count for the Democratic nominee, they need to nominate someone worth voting for. I don't do that "lesser of two evils" thing.

[datopbanana]

41. You can try to assuage your guilt by claiming it inaccurate

but the truth doesn't change.

You will be helping McCain.

[LWolf]

43. I don't have any guilt.

I'm not doing anything to help anyone but whomever I end up voting for.

That's the bottom line.

The rest is spin, and your efforts to play a false "guilt" card are pathetically inept.

[datopbanana]

44. I bet you don't have denial either.

[LWolf]

45. Nope.

:D

I'll bet there are many, you included, who are into denial in a big way when they nominate someone who can't earn enough votes to win in November.

It will always be someone else's fault, won't it?

It will never be the majority voters' faulty choice, will it?

That's the country named denial.

[datopbanana]

46. I thought it was a river called denial.

[LWolf]

47. It is, lol. n/t

[datopbanana]

48. They are connected!!

The denial river flows into the Mediterranean which flows into the Atlantic which flows into the Gulf which flows in the Mississippi which flows through the country of denial.

Damn Egyptians are poising us with their denial.

[LWolf]

52. Heh.

It's all connected, in the end.

:rofl:

[swishyfeet]

24. dupe

[sandnsea]

25. Maybe they did poll east of the cascades

If they'd polled Portland, it would have been 80/20.

[LWolf]

28. Probably.

Portland is sometimes comforting after spending months in rural red areas.

Bend has a progressive community radio station. I was listening yesterday, and the guys talking were definitely leaning Obama while trying to maintain a semblance of reasonable balance.

I'd guess, given the more conservative make-up on this side of the mountains, that more dems would support HRC. Of course, there are a lot fewer Democrats on this side of the mountains, too, so Obama would probably still be in the lead.

Still, no one ever polls me. ;)

[LWolf]

35. They DID. I spoke too soon, lol.

It wasn't Rasmussen, but I just got a phone call polling me for my vote.

I stand corrected. :D

[book_worm]

6. Great news! Oregon is the next big contest after next week.

[phrigndumass]

7. Nice to have a contrast to the SUSA polls in Oregon

:thumbsup:

[my3boyz]

18. The susa polls seem to always show a closer spread. nt

[Rosa Luxemburg]

8. K&R!

:kick:

[Arugula Latte]

9. Hell yeah! O-regon is going for O-bama ... "and I helped!"

:D

[powergirl]

11. You said "organ"

I remember that from Beavis and Butthead - this dates me. :evilgrin:

[RiverStone]

12. As a WA resident who gets the Portland OR news...

This make sense.

In fact, expect Obama's lead to grow.

He won 68% to 32% here in Washington.

And if Hillary is still in the race by May 20th, expect that to energize the Obama supporters in OR even more!

IMO, Obama wins OR by no less then 15%. :)

[Arugula Latte]

14. If yard signs and bumper stickers are any indication ...

Obama should win Portland (Multnomah County) easily.

[smalll]

26. OMG! Obama will win Portland!

Quelle surprise. :eyes:

[NotThisTime]

33. I'd take that drink in a heartbeat, LET'S GO OREGON!

[Arugula Latte]

51. Well, actually, I'd heard that Clinton was doing better in the Portland area

than statewide. So, if this is how she's doing here, she's doing piss poor elsewhere.

Also, yeah, it's so clever to mock people for drinking coffee and milk. That's why I have my sig line.

[malik flavors]

13. Good to hear!

[woolldog]

16. The voters in Oregon seem pretty sensible.

[Upton]

20. Pacific NW is Obama country

Clinton's lies and pandering don't go over as well here as in other parts of the country.

[IrishBloodEngHeart]

21. Oregon has a lot of white people, so it counts

I think. Im not every really sure what voters and states count because it changes so much.

[FrenchieCat]

23. Naw, they don't count! These are White Peace Loving Dems.....

[Hansel]

49. And activists and probably MoveOn people.

[swishyfeet]

27. Oregon is going Obama

[usregimechange]

29. kick!

[tekisui]

32. A big Obama win there could ecclipse Hillary's expected win in KY.

It will probably be a split night. Obama will have to win big there to net more delegates that night. Not that it's a must. He has an unreachable cushion, but for the media narrative.


Who knows, it could end this week. We can hope, right?

[cascadiance]

53. I think that if he takes 51% of the vote, he might just lock up the pledged delegates that night...

If the following happens before that night:

Obama and Hillary split evenly in Indiana (which is reflected in some polls)
Obama wins 55-45 in North Carolina, which seems reasonable to expect based on polls.
Hillary wins in West Virginia by a large margin like 58-42.

Then it wouldn't matter if 100% of the other remaining primaries' delegates went to Clinton besides Oregon, he'd have the pledged delegate total wrapped up with something like 1631-1604 according to the Slate delegate calculator. You know she won't get 100% Kentucky delegates that night, so I think that's the night he locks up the pledge delegate win (and perhaps that's when all of the uncommitted SD's jump on his bandwagon too).

And hopefully this abomination of a primary will be over!

[catgirl]

38. K & R

[book_worm]

42. Excellent news! Oregon is the next big contest after next week and a battle ground in Nov.

Obama leads in the polls vs. McCain while Hill is even or behind in other polls.

[Bright Eyes]

50. I hate to tell you

But Oregon doesn't count.

Unless Clinton wins. Then it counts.

:)