(DIALUP) Obama continues to decimate Clinton in REAL-MONEY Election Markets.

[Poll_Blind]

  Both Iowa Election Markets and Intrade are political futures markets in which real money is exchanged for "shares" of a political candidate in a wager that they will win. In this case, the Democratic Nomination for President, 2008.

  After reading threads like this and this (by Kerry2008, ORDagnabbit) asking Clinton supporters to explain exactly how she will win the nomination with neither the popular vote, the pledged delegates or the super delegates- and receiving no actual answer, I thought it would be interesting to check the numbers in places where real cash is on the line.

  Not much of a surprise, really. These metrics are just another set of numbers which show that Senator Clinton's campaign is in an almost-inescapable crisis and appears to be staying in the race only to weaken Senator Obama's campaign in the general election.

  Again, the people and the money are behind Obama.

  First, this graph from IEM (Obama, yellow) (Clinton, blue):


  Second, Obama (first) and Clinton (second) from Intrade (green denotes volume of trading):



PB

[Poll_Blind]

1. Kick! n/t

PB

[JimGinPA]

2. Money Is Sexist

K&R

[Poll_Blind]

5. Yep, waiting for the day that Clinton's exit is blamed on national sexism.

  Of course it wouldn't have anything to do with her political choices, campaign tactics, etc. That sort of accountability appears to be outside many of her supporters' understanding.

  And for supporters who have held their candidate accountable to so little, I'm not surprised.

PB

[Alexander]

3. What's "DROF" in the first chart?

I see "CLIN_NOM", "OBAM_NOM", "EDWA_NOM", and "DROF_NOM". I know who the first three are, but who or what is "DROF"?

[Poll_Blind]

7. DROF is if someone ELSE (Gore, Carter, CarrotTop, etc.) wins it. Pretty much all DROF represents...

...Gore, realistically, OR the slim chance that a brokered convention produces another nominee.

PB

[RichardRay]

10. Democrat - Rest of Field n/t

[Scurrilous]

4. K & R

:thumbsup:

[futureliveshere]

6. Great.. Though she has spiked up a bit in the last month, she is FAR behind.

[Poll_Blind]

8. Seeing it represented visually, like that, shows how little he's been affected...

...my the Wright thing. She is SO far behind in so many ways.

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[futureliveshere]

11. True, true. The SDs are watching....

[Poll_Blind]

9. *** And a more general indicator from Google Trends *** (which shows interest via queries):

Interactive version HERE



PB

[Poll_Blind]

12. Kick. n/t

PB