Will someone please post the math that shows Clinton can win the Nomination?

[ORDagnabbit]

Every time I ask on threads all I get is silence and crickets.

[Avalux]

1. They can't do it, so don't expect them to give you any numbers.

The only thing they can do is hope for a mass exodus of SDs. It isn't going to happen. :hi:

[juajen]

19. You're dreamin'!

Of course, it can happen and pledged delegates can become unpledged. All in a day's work, if the work puts you in a good position to take over the lead. It's the rules. Pledged and super delegates are allowed to change their minds.

I have a feeling that a lot of glitterbabies are rubbing that stuff out of their eyes. He's not a good candidate, folks. He's just not.

[BlueIdaho]

27. Except the Super Deligates seem to be going the wrong way. nt.

[redsoxrudy]

34. you still didn't answer the question!

The OP asked you to show the math. How many PD's does she get? How many of the remaining SD's does she get. The point is once you show us the numbers it becomes obvious how unlikely it is going to happen. Also, "pledged delegates can become unpledged", the only problem is the only delegates of any kind that are switching are going to Obama.

[Muttocracy]

2. 3 semesters of college calculus could not help me on that one

I think her strategy is hoping something (new scandal, who knows what) takes Obama out of the race and she wins by default since everyone else quit? Though maybe Edwards just suspended?

[DJ13]

3. Hillary math

:rofl:

[ChairmanAgnostic]

5. exactly, fact based vs. hillary math

[jobycom]

4. What's hard about the math? Neither candidate will get enough pledged delegates to win.

So if she can get enough supers to back her to put her over the top, she wins. Simple addition.

Math isn't the problem. Getting superdelegates to support her is the problem.

[Saturday]

7. I don't understand what BO supporters don't understand. You explained it well.nt

[Gore1FL]

42. The point is

There is now feasible argument to get the outrageous percentage of supers needed.

[ClarkBayh 2008]

8. All she has to do is keep him under 2000 delegates

which is looking easier and easier.... once at the convention, those last superdelegates will be very very cautious to back Obama who could easily lose & bring down the entire left wing of the party.

There is no math involved. Only delegates voting on ballots at the convention. If on the first ballot, Obama gets 2023 votes, he doesn't win & it's an open convention. Since Obama can't clinch this until June 3rd, probably later if superdelegates want to wait until later, there's no point in arguing about this math business until at June 4th.

[jazzjunkysue]

35. Wrong. On 2 counts. The SD's will not go brokered. And they will not

defy their local supporters. They will not let this become an open convention. If they lose the general, they're power disappears. It's just not going to happen.

It's all make believe. And it's really hurting the democratic chance against McCain.

Hillary is the new Lieberman. She's just going on to get more money to pay all her debts. The contributions are gone. It's over.

[Gore1FL]

43. I cannot think of a possible way

to keep him under 2000 at this point.

[juajen]

11. They're in denial. Plus, everytime you explain this to them,

they threaten mayhem if their bam bam isn't nominated. Doesn't matter if he can win the GE or not, they just want to be pacified.

I say we send them pacifiers so they stop whining.

[FARAFIELD]

12. your reply is the reason for the question

he didnt say that OBAMA or CLinton WOULD have the nomination on pledged alone he asked HOW Hillary would get there. just for refernce lets say they SPLIT the remaining pledge for +204 a piece that puts OBAMA at 1938. That leaves Hillary with 1805 at that point she would have to get 219 of the remaining 285 Supers. How in the hell will that happen?!! That doesnt even make sense. Theres just not enough there for her to catch up. In essance if OBAMA gets 67 more supers and just splits the remaining delegates its over. Sorry to make the point so rudely but your glib reply to his post is the reason his question gets asked so much. So we will make this easy OBAMA gets 67 Supers and its all over. Seems pretty clear to me. In fact it will probably be over pretty soon.

[Milo_Bloom]

26. The difference is Obama can easily get 2024, Clinton cannot.

Obama will need an extremely small % of the remaining SD's (far under the % he is currently attracting).

Last time I ran the numbers, Obama could LOSE EVERY CONTEST BY 10 POINTS and STILL win the nomination by attracting UNDER 40% of the remaining SD's. If he wins NC even by 2 points, he only has to attract just over 30% of the remaining SD's (and that was done before he picked up several more over the last few days)

A very clear and easy path to nomination.


For Clinton, she needs to WIN EVERY CONTEST BY 20 POINTS and STILL get over 65% of the remaining SD's. Currently SD's are breaking about 53/47 (as they have been the whole race) and there is nothing that suggests that will change. She hasn't won any major contest by 20 points and there is nothing to suggest she will do so in the future.

IN short, no realistic path to nomination.

[AZBlue]

29. Wow. Do you REALLY think we're that dumb?

You answer with a statement about math and try to convince us it's not about the math? The Clinton Campagin REALLY needs to get some new bullshit to throw around, this old stuff is getting boring.

[jobycom]

37. Read the OP. First, the assumption of ignorance comes from that crap, which is standard Obama.

That's all he's about--bullshit and insults, wrapped in a pretty smile. So I respond in kind.

[anigbrowl]

39. What about the fact that she needs a lot more supers than he does?

And the fact that although she went into the contest with more, he seems to be the one picking up most of the SD endorsements? Oh, they could change their mind. But why would you think that they will? I don't see any Obama SDs defecting to Clinton.

[NightWatcher]

6. watch this video for the answer

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bfq5kju627c

trust me :)

[Egnever]

38. Exactly! I dont know why people cant see it.

[bowens43]

9. 2 + 2 = 17

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

14. Yep. Carry the 13 and you're in business..

[RichGirl]

10. It's NOT JUST ABOUT THE MATH.

That's why we have SDs. If it was all about the math, we wouldn't need them.
When neither candidate gets 2024 and the numbers are this close, THEN they call in the SDs to make a decisions based on many considerations.

MI and FL are not counted in the math. But, the SDs can consider them. All Dean said was that MI and FL delegates would not count. That has nothing to do with the SDs. They are not instructed to pretend that MI and FL do not exist.

Delegates only matter if one of them gets to 2024. If they don't it's a whole new ballgame. Keep in mind...MI and FL have a lot of delegates. By not including them, it makes it much harder for EITHER candidate to get to 2024.

[tekisui]

13. When MI and FL were sanctioned, the number to win was reduced TO 2025.

From 2208.

The pool of SUperdelegates yet to endorse is shrinking. Hillary will get about another 25 Add-ons, and Obama another 35 Add-ons, based on the states won.

The remaining 225 Superdelegates will be the decision makers. They are coming out and breaking for Obama big time. Hillary will need about 194 of the remaining 225, or 87% of the SuperD's. Unless Obama gets indicted, she will not convince 87% of the Supers to go her way.

[FARAFIELD]

17. What a JOKE! Another HILLBOT that proves that Hillarys folks cant do the math!

The 2024 figure is WITHOUT Florida and Michigan. I guess I made my point that the Hillary people dont even know the delegate math. I believe the figure needed IF Florida and Michigan are included is 2208. Good one!!!

[quantass]

18. Let me take a crack at this...

It's obvious that ML and FL will be included HOWEVER they will not be apportioned based on the non-valid orginal results...that is just stupid...when the primaries are over in June then the person with the most delegates will be head of the committee that decides how to seat MI and FL....that person will be Obama and i am sure he will seat them "fairly". So FL and MI is nothing special.

SD's, as we've seen throughout this primary process, tend to lean towards the popular candidate who is the clear front-runner...this is why Obama has been rapidly gaining in SD's while Hillary has been fading....SD's have no backbone, as the MSM have repeatedly said, and they will virtually always cave in to the candidate who carries the most delegates, and the most popular votes....Obama is likely to be that candidate and so there is really no surprise who the remaining SD's will align with.

I've been watching SDs and other democratic party members and i honestly dont think most of these party leaders like Hillary because of what she has done, and continues to do to this party...i think they despise her and can't wait till this formality process is over before flushing her down the toilet...assuming Obama doesn't become detrimentally damaged by the massive attacks made by the RNC, Hillary, and the MSM all at the same time that we are seeing....i think it is funny that Hillary has been accepted with open-arms by the RNC and other right-wing nutz and she feels this is quite normal...doesnt she realize that they see her as "weak" and are trying to help her win because they know Obama is a tougher opponent? And what is even worse is that she is continuously adopting their talking points in her stump speeches...she is a disgrace and the DNC knows this....You can even tell Howard Dean doesn't like Hillary at all.

[Gore1FL]

44. "this close"

isn't close.

It isn't remotely close.

[billyoc]

15. She must win every remaining contest by 65+%.

Dubious.

[whistler162]

16. We have to wait for all the states to vote.....

New Clintonian, North and South Rodham have yet to be heard from and with their winner take all primaries and 675 delegates each it should be a breeze for the Senator.

[CakeGrrl]

20. They're counting on the SD's to switch over to her en masse

when she wins NC and IN, or even if she just comes close in NC and wins IN because that will prove that Obama is UNELECTABLE with the beer-drinking middle-class white voters.

:eyes:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Can You Win A Nat'l Election If You Get Destroyed In That Demographic?

I don't think it's mathematically possible since whites make up over seventy two percent of the electorate and more if you include Latinos who identify themselves as white...

[CakeGrrl]

30. Maine and Idaho aren't exactly hotbeds of multicultural activity

If you're implying that a large majority of the whites and white-wannabe Latinos will stick with the white lady, I have to disagree.

Certainly some will and exactly for that reason, and we know there are concentrations of those voter demographics scattered about the country, but there's no proof that there are enough of them to cause Obama to lose democratic strongholds.

And in addition to the new voter registrations his campaign generates, I believe Obama will get true crossover from a few Republicans disgusted with the current state of their party - not just Rushbots who want to swing the nomination to Hillary so McCain can beat her.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. Hmmm

"If you're implying that a large majority of the whites and white-wannabe Latinos will stick with the white lady, I have to disagree."

My girlfriend is Spanish/Asian...Her skin is brown...I will ask her if she thinks that voting for Hillary will make her white...I think her brown skin is beautiful and sexy...

Also, if you look at the data McSame does better among Democrats than Obama does among Republicans....

[DURHAM D]

21. I just read an in depth analysis (conservative) -

of projections for the remaining eight contests and does not count MI or FL.

It is five days old so it gave NC to Obama by 6%. Anyway, the projections for pledged delegates on June 3 is - Hillary over Obama by 2. Popular vote by 360,000 for Hillary.

[Egnever]

40. where did you read that?

[Freddie Stubbs]

22. A major scandal causes hundreds of Obama delegates to switched sides

That's probably the only way it could happen.

[bigbrother05]

24. Fuzzy Math, isn't that what Bush uses

[zulchzulu]

25. It goes like this....

As you can guess, it involves string theory... more like a robe to form around the neck of the Democratic Party.

[Triana]

28. It's in the ROVE playbook. You know. The one with THE numbers in it. n/t

[Growler]

32. She can't and won't.

n/t

[KoKo]

33. It's "too close to call" because of Popular Vote vs. Super Delegates and that's why Dean is

having major headaches. A Brokered Convention is seeming to be an "all too real possibility." Dems have fears about this. Some of us old timers think it should go that way. I guess there are good arguments to be made on both sides of it....:shrug:

[redsoxrudy]

36. What are they?

What possibly could be the good things that come out of a brokered convention?

[Gore1FL]

45. If therwere 3 candidates it would be possible

And despite my support of him, Edwards and his handful of delegates does not equate in any meaningful way to 3 candidates.

Obama needs only 40% of those remaining. It is inconceivable way he will not get them.

He is favored in NC, MT, OR, and SD. She would have to win by 80+ in teh others and still get qa majorit of SDs.

It isn't going to happen. It is beyond fantasy to think that it might.

[Gore1FL]

41. can I use imaginary numbers?