Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Clinton crushes McSame in FL, PA, and OH. Obama loses in FL, OH

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:48 AM
Original message
Clinton crushes McSame in FL, PA, and OH. Obama loses in FL, OH
-snip-

n=1,411 RV
McCain 44, Obama 43... Clinton 49, McCain 41

Ohio
n=1,127 RV
McCain 43, Obama 42... Clinton 48, McCain 38

Pennsylvania
n=1,494 RV
Obama 47, McCain 38... CLinton 51, McCain 37

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_quinnipiac_fl_pa_oh_42329.php

-snip-


Winning among white working class voters, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton holds strong leads over Arizona Sen. John McCain - and runs much better than Illinois Sen. Barack Obama - in three critical swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to three simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today. If Sen. Obama is the Democratic nominee, he's in a tight race with McCain in Florida and Ohio, but takes Pennsylvania.

This is Sen. Clinton's strongest overall performance since the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University began special surveys two years ago in the three largest and most important swing states in the Electoral College. This latest survey finds:

* Florida: Clinton tops McCain 49 - 41 percent; McCain gets 44 percent to Obama's 43 percent;
* Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 38 percent; McCain gets 43 percent to Obama's 42 percent;
* Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 51 - 37 percent; Obama leads McCain 47 - 38 percent.

Among white working-class voters, Clinton ties McCain 45 - 45 percent in Florida, leads 46 - 40 percent in Ohio and 48 - 40 percent in Pennsylvania. These same voters back McCain over Obama 51 - 34 percent in Florida, 49 - 34 percent in Ohio and 45 - 38 percent in Pennsylvania.

"If the super delegates are looking at electability, these results could be a shot in the arm for Sen. Clinton. No one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying two of these three swing states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And she clearly is running much better against Sen. McCain than is Sen. Obama, at least for now," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"There is no indication that Obama's problems with white working class Democrats in the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries have gone away," Brown added.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1173&What=&strArea=;&strTime=120
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
Saturday Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:52 AM
Response to Original message
1. Recommended. nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:54 AM
Response to Original message
2. Obama beats Hillary in the primary. Game over. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:56 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. And then loses by 200 electoral votes to McLame in the general election.
Neither candidate has enough pledged delegates to win the nomination. Which is why the superdelegates need to nominate the candidate who gives us the best chance to win the 3 most important swing states.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:57 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. You're off your rocker.
You have NOTHING on which to base such a premise unless you are clairvoyant.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:58 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. I'm not off my rocker, I am dealing with reality.
Life is different outside of the netroots. It's a pipedream to think that Obama will win Ohio and Florida. He may even lose Pennsylvania.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #10
25. Thankfully the netroots doesn't represent the real world!
He may not even win Massachusetts for crying out loud!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SeaLyons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #25
75. Yes, thank God !!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
JoFerret Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-02-08 06:24 AM
Response to Reply #75
120. DU is not the world of actual voters
Edited on Fri May-02-08 06:24 AM by JoFerret
they are a small slice of it
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #10
32. You cannot POSSIBLY project that months outside the GE.
When the party is still divided and a nominee hasn't even been chosen. When Hillary is finally OUT of this race, the poll numbers will shift to reflect that. Your clinging to these polls as justification to continue dividing this party is pathetic. And it's this division of the party that is going to lose us the GE. NOT your perception of Obama's merit.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #32
38. The party is divided and Hillary is still winning these important states by large margins.
Edited on Thu May-01-08 11:07 AM by NJSecularist
What's your point?

By your logic, wouldn't Hillary's general election numbers get better then after she won the nomination?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:13 AM
Response to Reply #38
54. She won't win the nomination.
So your point is moot. Your cognitive dissonance has painted you into a corner where you'll grasp at anything to keep her dream alive.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #54
71. All you can do is say NO. tsk tsk.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #71
89. Welcome to my ignore list. I've been wanting to put you there for awhile now.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mtnsnake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #89
103. What caused you to do it now? Is it because you just proved how you're no match for the rodeo?
lol
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #7
12. NJSecularist is simply pro sense
Obama is another Dukakis. Dukakis lost the popular vote by 7 but the electoral college by over 300. Obama losing the electoral vote by 200 is possible. Bush 41 lost the popular vote by 5 and the electoral vote by about 200.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #12
22. I'm sorry, but are we in the general election?
Your projections are absolutely meaningless when we haven't even solidified the Democratic Party behind a nominee. But trust me, it will happen. I apologize in advance that it won't work out in your favor.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #22
40. Yes, and Obama's popularity will also continue to wane as he gets attacked, defined, and vetted
Once again, can Obamites name the last "new" candidate running against an incumbent who was stronger in November after being attacked for months than he was in the spring? Kerry 04', Bush 00', and Dukakis 88' definitely were not (-11, -11, and -24 in Dukakis' case after the convention)...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #40
45. Wow, O Great Seer! That was remarkable!
Keep looking back 20 years to predict the future. It's hilarious, but I see that it works for you. Keeps you from focusing on the PRESENT day where your candidate has is perceived as negative and untrustworthy by a vast majority of the electorate and where she's LOSING THE RACE.

That is the reality of the situation. Focus on that, and you just might be salvaged in time for the general election.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #45
48. Kerry ran 4 years ago, Bush ran 8 years ago as the "new" candidate of "change"
Edited on Thu May-01-08 11:12 AM by jackson_dem
There are political realities and all the bamboozling and hoodwinking in the world won't change that.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:16 AM
Response to Reply #48
59. Who's banboozsling and hoodwinking?
The Clinton campaign has made a career out of it!

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Arkansas Granny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #22
42. What works in my favor is a Democratic President. I have looked at several
projected electoral votes for 2008 and they show Hillary getting more than enough electoral votes to win. They do not show Obama with the required 270 electoral votes. Regardless what the popularity polls show, we aren't playing American Idol and the candidate that can win more electoral votes for the Democratic party needs to be the nominee.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #42
46. How in the world can you back such polls
when the Democratic electorate is still DIVIDED between TWO candidates?? Those polls are meaningless until there is one candidate that the party can finally unite behind.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:13 AM
Response to Reply #46
52. Yet Clinton still wins. So you are projecting a Clinton landslide when the party unites?
While Obama may squeak by narrowly like Kerry and Gore did? Oh wait...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #52
56. You are thicker than a tree stump.
You're projecting a McCain landslide when the party hasn't even chosen a candidate. When everyone finally has a chance to unite behind Obama so he's not fighting off attacks from Republicans and his own party, then such GE projections will finally become pertinent. Right now, your "projections" are silly.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #56
70. What Evidence Do You Have That Groups That Resisted Obama In The Past Will No Longer Resist Him?
~
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:26 AM
Response to Reply #70
86. Clearly you get your "evidence" from activist messaage boards
that do not reflect reality. Regular voters and swing voters will get behind the Democrat as they always have. The hardcore hold-outs are in the minority. But believe me, if the nomination is stolen from the frontrunner of this race, the outcry will be that much greater. Hillary will look like the girl who caught the bouquet, but only after she hamstringed one of the bridesmaid who actually caught it.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:29 AM
Response to Reply #86
92. I'm A Logical Positivist...My Conclusions Are A Product Of The Data
Edited on Thu May-01-08 11:31 AM by DemocratSinceBirth
I see poll after poll that suggests that thirty to fifty percent of Clinton supporters, depending on the state, say they they will not vote for Obama...

That means that Obama can not count on more than 75% to 80% of the Democratic vote... I do not believe he can find those votes elsewhere...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
JoFerret Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-02-08 06:23 AM
Response to Reply #7
119. On what posible evidence do you base
your fantasy?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:58 AM
Response to Reply #3
8. And then wins without Hillary on the ticket. She lost: no GE for Hillary. Face it. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #8
16. Face what?
You can say over and over again that Hillary has lost and it just isn't true. As much as you would like for it to be true.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #16
26. That is the pro sense position
Edited on Thu May-01-08 11:03 AM by jackson_dem
;)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bowens43 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:16 AM
Original message
Really? Do you have any evidence of this
other then these meaningless bullshit polls? No? I didn't think so.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:18 AM
Response to Original message
66. He's a new candidate who is tanking in the polls who hasn't even been vetted yet.
Losing by 200 electoral votes is well within possibility.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Maddy McCall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #2
34. And then loses in the GE.
That's nothing to celebrate.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:57 AM
Response to Original message
4. Using these polls as justification for continuing to rip apart the Democratic Party
is not only shameful but makes you look like an idiot. You'll cling to anything to keep your delusion alive. I might as well be one of the candidates in those polls for all they are worth at this point in the race. The idea is to pick a NOMINEE and THEN start looking at GE polls.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:57 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Michael Dukakis is that you?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #5
15. I really feel sorry for you.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:08 AM
Response to Reply #15
43. Not as sorry as we all will feel on November 4 if Obama is the nominee
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:12 AM
Response to Reply #43
49. Miss Cleo? Is that you??
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:13 AM
Response to Reply #49
53. You don't need to be Miss Cleo to figure out that Obama is unelectable. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:16 AM
Response to Reply #53
58. Seeing as how he's winning the primary, that nullifies your view
and makes your calling the losing candidate electable look even more absurd.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:17 AM
Response to Reply #58
61. The primary election and the general election are two entirely different animals.
Obama will not win states on the back on the black vote like he is doing now.

Or maybe he'll win Georgia and Mississippi, right? :crazy:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #61
77. Your subject head of your last post is EXACTLY why your original point is BULLSHIT
Two different animals. Therefore your attempt to project a GE winner when there are still two people fighting it out in the Democratic primary is RIDICULOUS. When the person who is currently WINNING this primary seals the nomination and has a united party behind him, and can focus all of his efforts and money on John McCain, you will see a major shift in the polling, and whether it shows him winning or losing, the numbers will be a HELL of a lot more valid than they are right now!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:57 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. The idea is to pick the most electable candidate. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:58 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. Seeing as how Hillary is broke and losing this race
the question of "electability" has been answered.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #6
11. No the idea is to win. The winner is then more electable than the loser. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #11
17. Exactly! How can the loser be more electable?
It's like saying that a busted up vehicle that doesn't even start gets better gas mileage.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #17
24. No, it's like saying the candidate who trails by 1 lap with 100 laps to go in the race. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #24
37. There are not 100 laps to go in the race. There are fewer than 10.
And she trails by way more than 1.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #17
29. Ask McGovern and Dukakis
:scared:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #29
41. Different races, different times, different candidates, different world
Apples and oranges.

Your brain is warped.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #41
44. Politics is politics. The strongest GE candidate doesn't always win the primaries
Edited on Thu May-01-08 11:11 AM by jackson_dem
See: Kerry 04' (Clark), Bush 00' (McCain), Mondale 84' (Hart), Carter 80' (Kennedy), Reagan 80' (Bush--the reason this worked out for the rethugs was Carter's popularity tanked), McGovern (Humphrey, maybe Jackson), and so on. What is warped is assuming the nomination winner is the strongest general election. This is especially true when the primary lead is narrowly built on gaming the system (see: McGovern).
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:17 AM
Response to Reply #17
63. That's Absurd...
Politics is like boxing... Styles make fights as they make political matches... Joe Frazier gave Muhummad Ali fits... George Foreman beat Joe Frazier like a drum, twice... Muhammad Ali beat George Foreman...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #11
18. Your one-liners are not clever.
Neither candidate has won anything yet. Your wishful thinking is different than the facts.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #18
21. Your fantasy is tiring. Fact: Hillary is behind and can't catch up. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #21
27. Fact: Obama will not get 2024 pledged delegates. He is not entitled to the nomination. n/t
Edited on Thu May-01-08 11:04 AM by NJSecularist
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #27
30. Fact: Winner wins, loser loses. Fact: loser doesn't win, winner wins n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #30
33. Fact: Obama is not the winner yet. Fact: Hillary has a chance to win. n/t
Edited on Thu May-01-08 11:08 AM by NJSecularist
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #33
35. Show me how, numbers please! n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:11 AM
Response to Reply #35
47. Here's the math: 1491 pledged delegates < 2024 pledged delegates n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:16 AM
Response to Reply #47
60. That's the math for Hillary winning? n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:17 AM
Response to Reply #60
64. That's the math for the reason why Obama is not the nominee yet. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #64
69. No, that's the math for your inability to show how Hillary can take the lead. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #69
79. It's also my math to show Obama's inability to win the nomination without superdelegates. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:38 AM
Response to Reply #79
97. What is it that you don't understand: Hillary is behind, Obama wins
It's that simple. The superdelegates will go to the candidate who is ahead. Game over.

Prolonging the inevitable (defined by math), doesn't make it less inevitable.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:41 AM
Response to Reply #97
101. False.
It's your own wishful thinking to state that the SDs will go to the candidate with more pledged delegates. It's certainly not a fact. Obama does not have enough pledged delegates to clinch.

Just because you say it is inevitable doesn't make it so.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SemiCharmedQuark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #6
31. Ah, the Kerry strategy. What a winner that was!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Upton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:59 AM
Response to Original message
13. Actually this is good news for Obama
Edited on Thu May-01-08 11:00 AM by Upton
showing he is within the MOE in Fla. and Ohio and leading in Pa. I see you removed your Suns avatar, unfortunately for you, the one you replaced it with is destined for the same fate.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #13
20. This is not good news. He is already losing despite the rethug machine not having gone after him yet
Edited on Thu May-01-08 11:01 AM by jackson_dem
Why is a woman who the rethugs, MSM have savaged for 16 years, the far left has attacked rabidly for 5-6 years, and who has been attacked for over a year by rivals for the nomination outperforming a "new", fresh face this badly? (Answer: his fundamental problem of many folks not voting for him, even if they like him and would like to have a beer with him, simply because he has no experience).
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #20
28. Actually it is:
On the bright side for Obama, his showings in Florida and Pennsylvania have improved since the last poll from a month ago. However, Hillary is still outperforming him in all three states.

link


Obama improved? Impossible, what about Wright-gate and Bitter-gate?

All of these BS GE polls are smoke and mirrors to bolster Hillary's argument in a race she can't win.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:12 AM
Response to Reply #28
50. Improved is not good enough when you trailed by so much at the beginning.
You don't get proportional delegates in the general election. It's winner-take-al;l
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:17 AM
Response to Reply #50
65. Hillary will not be in the GE. It's a contest between Obama and McCain. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #65
67. Really? When did Obama clinch the nomination? n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #65
76. What is that magic number?????
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #76
98. Greater than: whatever margin Obama leads by could be 1 to 150. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Inuca Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #20
36. Would care to define "outperforming"?
Because by all meaningful measures she is losing.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Texas Hill Country Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:59 AM
Response to Original message
14. k&r
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:01 AM
Response to Original message
19. You did not get the memo. Resistance is futile.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:23 AM
Response to Reply #19
80. That memo ASSumes Hillary supporters are sheepies.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
uponit7771 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:02 AM
Response to Original message
23. FYI: A 10 point swing in 3 polls with credibility is something you can bank on. NONE of the numbers
...you cite are a 10 point swing and Obama wins by same margin in Penn as Hillary
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:06 AM
Response to Original message
39. "Loses"...
:rofl:

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:13 AM
Response to Original message
51. Head-to-head matchups aren't valid
when there are more than two heads.

:headbang:
rocknation
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:14 AM
Response to Reply #51
55. So Hillary's numbers will get better than they already are when she is the nominee?
By your logic, that means it should be an absolute guarentee that she will win all of these important swing states, right?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #55
68. When she's the nominee...
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

you know, if you were a child, your disconnection from reality would almost be cute.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #68
84. The reality is that neither candidate has won enough pledged delegates to win the nomination
Sorry that the reality conflicts with your warped version of reality in your netroots cocoon.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:23 AM
Response to Reply #55
81. And who's to say Obama's numbers wouldn't change--or even McCain's? THAT'S the problem.
Edited on Thu May-01-08 12:01 PM by rocknation
As long as there is a choice of Dem candidate but no choice of GOP candidate, it's not a real head-to-head matchup, it's speculation.

:headbang:
rocknation
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bowens43 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:15 AM
Response to Original message
57. completely meaningless.
Until Obama is officially the nominee and he actively campaigns against McCain, this is nothing more then meaningless bullshit.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #57
74. So Hillary's numbers will get better when she is the nominee?
By that logic, she is pretty much guarenteed to win Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania then.

Why not nominate her then?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Phillycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
62. I can't believe people don't understand the OH/PA/FL importance.
Is this their first national election in our generation? Did they not pay any attention in 2000 or 2004? Our candidate MUST win all 3 or strongly win 2 of 3. It's simple statistics. Hillary is the only candidate who can do that.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PVnRT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #62
73. "Must win"? Not really
One of the three, yes. Kerry lost by a small margin losing Ohio and Florida - same with Gore. It's nice to win them, but not necessary, provided you can win in other states.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:23 AM
Response to Reply #73
82. So you are using the 2000 and 2004 model on how to win an election?
Did you forget that we lost both elections?

The reason why they both lost is because neither carried 2 of the three big swing states (Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio). Both of them only carried Pennsylvania.

Fact: Pennsylvana and Florida/Ohio are a must win.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Phillycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #82
83. Hee!
"You know that one time when we lost? Let's try that exact same thing again, but, you know, win."

The definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over, expecting differenct results.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-02-08 02:37 AM
Response to Reply #83
114. The problem is the Obama camp's claims of "expanding the map" is just a fairy tale
They never explain how he makes up the 47 electoral votes he loses in FL and OH alone, not to mention the shaky 21 in PA with him heading the ticket.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:26 AM
Response to Reply #82
87. I think its like a gambleholic sickness. nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
PVnRT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #82
107. Had Gore won his home state, Florida would have been irrelevant
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-02-08 02:36 AM
Response to Reply #107
113. Gore never had a shot in his home state because he was perceived as out of touch. Sound like anyone?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #62
95. People understand. They just don't agree with your conclusions.
It is possible for people to agree with your premise but disagree with your conclusion. And actually your analysis is a little off anyway. We can win without Florida and Ohio if we can grab a couple of other red states - Virginia and North Carolina, for example. Secondly, we don't have to "strongly win" any state, just win them under the winner take all EV system.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #95
96. When is the last time Virginia and North Carolina went blue?
Here's a hint: 1964 and 1976.

Obama will win neither state.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #96
108. Doesn't matter. Virgina at least will go blue this year. Want to bet against both VA and NC going
blue this year if Obama is the candidate?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-02-08 02:37 AM
Response to Reply #108
115. The only way VA and NC go blue is if there is a 40+ state landslide
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
krkaufman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:20 AM
Response to Original message
72. Oh, I'm howling....!!!
So Hillary's big campaign talking point is a lie. Looks like Obama can win that big state of Pennsylvania just fine. Too, too funny.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SeaLyons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:22 AM
Response to Original message
78. K&R
Go Hillary
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
pecwae Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:25 AM
Response to Original message
85. Big K and an R!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:27 AM
Response to Original message
88. STATE GE POLLS DON'T MEAN SQUAT NOW! Rewind, Repeat as necessary.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:28 AM
Response to Reply #88
91. Yet national polls are used daily as proof of Obama's electability by the Obamites.
:crazy: :crazy:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #91
106. Two misperceptions don't make a correct perception.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Edgewater_Joe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
90. I'd Be Worried If the Election Was NEXT WEEK
But since it's in November, I'm not worried.

Obama WILL WIN this November -- unless you and the rest of the Hillbots really secretly love McSameAsBush as much as you seem to by stringing out Hillary's LOST CAMPAIGN.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rg302200 Donating Member (495 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:30 AM
Response to Original message
93. It must be nice to live in a fantasy world...whats it like?
Neither Hillary or Obama will win Ohio, I know I live here. However what Obama does is put more "red" states; North Carolina, Nevada, Virginia, New Mexico, Missouri, Iowa and so on; into play. What does Clinton have to offer? Going after Ohio, FL and PA again? Was that not the same game plan for Kerry? We see how that worked out for him. Get a F****** life Clinton will get blown away by McCain in the GE because people that hate her will come out in droves to vote against her. Where as the same people will vote for Obama because, "Hey at least its not Hillary...."
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #93
94. Hillary will win Ohio.
Obama is not winning either North Carolina or Virginia.

Hillary has more of a chance to win Missouri than Obama.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-02-08 02:37 AM
Response to Reply #94
116. Obama is uncompetitive in MO right now while Clinton leads there
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
last1standing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:40 AM
Response to Original message
99. Is that before or after her campaign manager's felony vote suppression is accounted for?
Because we need to know if being imprisoned for vote suppression will change the numbers.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:41 AM
Response to Original message
100. Obama is within the MOE in OH and FL
Which is pretty remarkable, given the week he's had. He's losing both of those states by 1 point. He has improved signficantly in Florida and Pennsylvania since the last Quinnipiac poll. All in all, I find this poll encouraging. She does look stronger in these three states, as I have said all along she would be. But he looks stronger in other must-win Kerry states, and puts more Bush states in play. They both have a very good chance to win, but the electoral map would look different in a Clinton-McCain race and an Obama-McCain race.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Robbins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 12:02 PM
Response to Reply #100
109. Obama
The big news here Is Mccain Is only 1 point ahead of Obama In Florida and Ohio.This Is the best
Obama has done In florida,and Is Improving In Ohio from 3 behind to 1 behind.Remember all the shit that has been thrown at him and he Is still competive In Ohio and florida and wins PA.This Is actully good news for Obama.As I have maintained poll numbers can chance.President Perot anybody?
Bush winning by a landslide?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jonestonesusa Donating Member (630 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:41 AM
Response to Original message
102. The poster's point is a fair one at this point in the election season.
There's no doubt that Obama faces challenges to carry these important states in the GE - so does Clinton. However, another region that is a must hold for the Democrats is the Upper Midwest. To win, the Democrats must carry Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, and Michigan. HC is probably strongest in Michigan among these states, but in my view Obama is stronger in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois.

So while there's some cherry picking here and some echoing of HC's campaign talking points, there's also a real challenge that Obama faces in these states, and Obama is the first to acknowledge this. Unlike HC, BO is not taking for granted that all these states will stay blue without a pointed and effective campaign. But he'll get a big bump among much of the Democratic progressive community once he receives the nomination, as he is likely to. So I give limited credence to the current polls that are predicated on a Clinton victory in the primary season.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-02-08 02:43 AM
Response to Reply #102
117. It is the electoral math
Edited on Fri May-02-08 02:43 AM by jackson_dem
First Illinois is a safe Democratic state that either candidate would win. That leaves IA, WI, MN, and MI. Obama has consistently polled better than Clinton in Iowa. However, for the first time Clinton pulled into a narrow 1 point lead over McSame in Iowa. Still, if we are choosing based on Iowa Obama is our candidate. Iowa has 7 electoral votes. Wisconsin and Minnesota both have 10 electoral votes. Clinton actually loses WI right now. Both win MN but Obama, the Midwesterner, is substantially stronger. So we are at 27 electoral votes that Obama would safely bring him right now while Clinton is iffy. Obama wins MI, Clinton loses. MI has 17 electoral votes. This is based on one poll and I suspect it is an outlier. It is hard to see her doing so much worse than him in MI but let's assume it is accurate from now.

The cherry picking is based on the electoral college. The four states you mentioned have 44 electoral votes. Florida and Pennsylvania combined have 48. Ohio has another 20.

Obama would get a bump--and then he would be hit 24/7 for months by the rethugs. Thus far he has shown a glass jaw to attacks...

Source: http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May01.html http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May01.html
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jonestonesusa Donating Member (630 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-02-08 11:12 AM
Response to Reply #117
125. Thanks for the info on the current polling #s and the link.
I like this site - followed it last election cycle. I wasn't aware that Obama is currently polling stronger against McCain than Clinton in Michigan. It's interesting to consider the demographic differences between Michigan and Ohio/Pennsylvania.

I think Clinton would hold Wisconsin, but last time Kerry won by 10,000 votes, I think. Minnesota should stay safe Democrat, but they haven't had a Democratic governor since 1992 if I remember right, and Republicans win the U.S. Senate races occasionally, maybe even this year if Al Franken has further trouble.

It's largely up to Obama to reframe his campaign after the media and HC feeding frenzy on the Wright issue. I also think he will do more to help Congressional and local candidates all over the country. But there's no question it's a challenging road for him to regain some momentum in this campaign and redefine history. It's certainly far from a guarantee - of loss or victory.


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
durrrty libby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:45 AM
Response to Original message
104. BO would lose in the GE. He needs to get out of the way asap
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
jonestonesusa Donating Member (630 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 01:40 PM
Response to Reply #104
112. All snickering, no dialogue...
That reminds me of how HC responds to tough questions, and her supporters on DU follow suit.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Justyce Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 11:45 AM
Response to Original message
105. K&R. nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Cameron27 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 12:06 PM
Response to Original message
110. Thanks Jackson!
K&R
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 12:38 PM
Response to Original message
111. K&R.
:kick:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-02-08 03:43 AM
Response to Original message
118. Hillary has the surer route but Obama can win
At 4:45 AM that's about as simple as I can make it.

The statewide numbers were destined to tighten, and they'll tighten some more. That's the problem with sites like fivethirtyeight, or whatever it is. I've seen it linked recently but when you rely on statewide polls in general election terms you start with a fundamental flaw.

It's an extreme swerve from primaries where state polling is more relevant than national polling, to the fall where opposite is true and you have to be eager to let go of one and lasso the other. The states will naturally fall in line with their typical tendencies, in relation to the national margin.

And there's no way two Democrats will fare dramatically different from the same Republican. I've seen state polling with 10-15 point gaps between Obama's fortunes and Hillary's fortunes. That's pure Monty Python. It will be a handful of points at most, in certain states.

Unfortunately for our side, given where we are, Hillary has more margin for error than Obama in the critical states. At 50/50 nationally Hillary wins the electoral college more often than Obama does. But Obama can potentially offset that via superior national relationship to McCain. That's the wild card, which Democrat fares best in election eve national polling vs. McCain?

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
aquarius dawning Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-02-08 06:25 AM
Response to Original message
121. I'm glad to se eI'm not the only person talking about this.
I mus be ignored by every Obama supporter at DU because every time I post this bit of info, there's an odd silence from them.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Freedom Train Donating Member (479 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-02-08 07:38 AM
Response to Original message
122. K&R!
:patriot:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Freedom Train Donating Member (479 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-02-08 07:38 AM
Response to Original message
123. K&R!
:patriot:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
aquarius dawning Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-02-08 08:58 AM
Response to Original message
124. K&R
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Tue May 07th 2024, 07:08 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC