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my3boyz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 06:23 AM
Original message
OBAMA Supporters:
I have to admit that the NC polls tightening is making me very nervous. The Insider Advantage poll shows the pollster using the samd number of blacks and whites in the previous poll and it showed Obama way ahead. Now all of a sudden a big drop in support for Obama. If he loses NC it will hurt him big time. It might not affect the numbers much but the media has hyped how he will have this huge double digit win in NC. Chuck Todd kept going on and on about how the state was the perfect storm for Obama (lots of African Americans, lots of more educated whites,lots of upper income dems and lots of students). If he loses here it will be because he lost one of his core groups of support. I usually pretend like things are okay (so as not to give Hillbots the satisfaction) but after the Susa poll and this one saying he is losing support in the research triangle I'm very nervous! I hope Obama does not take NC for granted and spends all of his time in Indiana. IMO he can afford to lose Indiana but not North Carolina! The pundits have said over and over that if either of them can steal a state they were not supposed to win they could change the direction of the primary. Either Obama could put HIllary out or Hillary could become very competitive again. Just imagine the hype if Hillary wins North Carolina. I'm so pissed at Rev Wright! At first I was proud that Obama did not denounce him for political reasons. NOw I wish he had denounced him early on and been finished with it. Maybe this is a temporary dip like he had after Wright 1.0. I just hope he has enough time for the polls to swing back up favorably for him.

This combined with the SUSA drop in the same area (research triangle) is leaving me feeling very uneasy. Someone PLEASE tell me I'm wrong. I was just so sure that Obama would win NC because of posts here and media coverage. Now I'm so unsure and I don't like the feeling. If she does close in I hope the early votes help Obama out. He has an edge there. However, he had an edge there in Texas and she still won the popular vote. I know it won't make a difference in delegates if he has a close loss there but he needs a win now. It has been a while since he won a state. If he loses 2 states on Tuesday the media will NEVER let the story go! :(

On the positive side I'm very happy about the SD who switched to Obama! I hope the other SD's agree with him.
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livingmadness Donating Member (347 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 06:27 AM
Response to Original message
1. People want to support a winner
and there is little doubt that the perception of Obama as winner has been shaken in the past few days. However, with Obama's denouncement, and what can only be described as a gush in SD support, including some big, BIG gets, the media meme is going to change in Obama's favor again. It already is. I have family in NC, two of them volunteering for the campaign, and they have no doubts whatsoever. The win is his, I am certain, what will matter is how much. I believe there'll be another 8-10 SDs between now and then, and the inevitability will become clearer and clearer. Don't fret!!
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4themind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 06:27 AM
Response to Original message
2. My advice is to relax (or take a break from DU) untill the true poll occurs on tuesday
Trust me it helps, unless you're phonebanking, canvassing, or are voting in NC, there's little point in worrying about things that aren't under your control
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olkaz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 06:27 AM
Response to Original message
3. Calm down.
The superdelegates have already decided. It's been over for weeks.

And if that doesn't help, donate. Phone bank.
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leftofcool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 06:30 AM
Response to Original message
4. The Triangle will go for Hillary
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livingmadness Donating Member (347 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 06:34 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. I'm sorry. EOM.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 06:36 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. And the state to Obama.
With the Delegates.
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barack the house Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 06:39 AM
Response to Original message
7. NC is in the bag. Pollster has been highly accurate...
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my3boyz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 07:16 AM
Response to Reply #7
12. Now that graph is something that makes me smile! :)
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Divernan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 06:50 AM
Response to Original message
8. These "I'm a worried Obama supporter" posts just don't ring true to me.
They are exactly the psyops kind of posts Clinton headquarters would send out in their talking points. Ya know, say you're an Obama supporter and then claim in detail why the sky is falling. As another poster responded, this race is over! It is mathematically impossible for her to catch up with him, and the Super Delegates and party leaders have made it clear they will not go with Clinton by overruling the majority vote of Dems.

Maybe you are not a Clinton operative, but just a pessimistic person who always sees a glass as half empty, rather than half full. But in this race, Obama's glass is 90% full and HRC's glass is cracked and leaking the last few drops.

I have a sister-in-law like that - the sky is always falling. And even if things are going great, she'll find some dark omens looming in the future.

HRC's refusal to admit defeat and demonstrate even a scintilla of class by bowing out makes this primary race exceptionally rough on everyone. However, the psychological stress we endure is nothing compared to that suffered by civilians and troops, and families of every soldier stationed in the hells of Iraq and Afghanistan. So suck it up, and keep campaigning for Obama, the one candidate who will spike the guns of the military-industrial, perpetual warmongers, bring our troops home, and stop the hemorraghing of our national treasure so that we can address the very real needs of our country.
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my3boyz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 07:13 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. If you have ever noticed my posts I'm usually very upbeat
about Obama's chances. I don't understand why you think Obama supporters should be so positive after the past few weeks of coverage. He has been hit by one thing after another. The polls numbers are changing. That is a fact. The race is tightening. It makes me nervous. I wish I could put my head in the sand and say that North Carolina does not matter. I wish the media never hyped it as a possible double digit win for him (and that Hillary had no chance) because now expectations are high. I KNOW there is no way Hillary can catch up in the elected delegates! I understand that 100%! However, Obama can't rest on that and lose every primary left because he is in the lead. The SD's might start to think there is buyer's remorse and switch to Hillary after the last primaries.
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hokies4ever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 06:51 AM
Response to Original message
9. When you're ahead by 130 delegates
You can afford to lose 3 to 5 delegates. Hillary's blowout win in PA netted her a grand total of 10 delegates.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 07:16 AM
Response to Original message
11. Obama Will Win NC And The Nation
His challenge is to find a way to beat McSame with a party at war with itself...
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oldgrowth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 08:16 AM
Response to Original message
13. As the media gos the sheepeople will follow!!!!
An uninformed public to the max!!

The obscure we see eventually. The completely obvious, it seems, takes longer.
Edward R. Murrow

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Neshanic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 09:01 AM
Response to Original message
14. Obama will get the nom no matter what. McCain will beat him McGovern style.
Then we have a happy young Obama gang on board, and another republican WH era.
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casus belli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 09:05 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. Good morning Debbie Downer.
How's about some bitter for that coffee?
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casus belli Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 09:04 AM
Response to Original message
15. If they truly wanted the Wright issue to have legs...
they should have broken it before he went on his winning streak. He's already amassed a sizeable block of supporters who see right through this BS, and aren't going to be deterred by a few lowballs thrown at him.

It's a mathematical certainty..just let it play out, and try not to panic.
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TragedyandHope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-01-08 10:16 AM
Response to Original message
17. STAY STRONG
The MSM is spinning this race as if no one had voted in the past 3 months.

Obama has won 30 states! He is ahead by all factual measures. Not only that, but he has an insurmountable lead in the overall race.

The media is just shilling for McCain now, trying to drag this out.

All the Superdelegates endorsing and switching to Obama know the score.

We've already won this thing. Just hold on a little longer for Hillary to realize that.

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