Breaking: Insider Advantage North Carolina - Clinton 44, Obama 42

[NJSecularist]

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_430_370.aspx

April 30, 2008 — A survey of 571 registered likely voters in North Carolina’s May 6 Democratic primary shows Sen. Hillary Clinton having moved from a double digit deficit in an InsiderAdvantage poll taken in mid-April to a two point lead over Sen. Barack Obama in this telephone survey, conducted April 29. The survey was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8%

The results were:

Hillary Clinton: 44%
Barack Obama: 42%
Undecided: 14%

Prior to his appearance on FoxNews Network’s “Hannity & Colmes,” on which the poll was released, InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery noted: “The shift has come almost entirely from white voters age 45 and over. There was a small drift of African-Americans back towards Clinton, but not so significant as to establish any trend.

“I believe when all is said and done, Obama will likely carry North Carolina; or if he loses the race, it will be by just a few points.

“Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day. If that happens, my guess is that he will pull this out. However, this poll is clearly an indication of reaction to the latest statements by his former pastor; and it forces Sen. Obama to split resources between Indiana and North Carolina.
“If this white vote shift does not erode, given that North Carolina’s white Democratic voters are primarily in the Research Triangle, where education and personal finances are in the top tier for the nation, then I would say this suggests a major shift in all future primaries towards Clinton,” said Towery.

Go Hill! :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[anonymous171]

1. Obama needs to attack her. She will fall, to the ruin of her soiled dynasty.

[GoldieAZ49]

53. uhuh, keep whistling past the graveyard

:rofl:

[Zhade]

87. Keep dreaming, Obama will be the nominee when you wake up.

NT!

[GoldieAZ49]

103. Only if the Dem Party leaders decide they do not want to be a serious political party

anymore.

After the past few elections it would seem they are going that way. The far left seems intent on taking what was once a great political platform and destroying it.

If that is the case so be it. It may be for the best, easier to start anew than to rehabilitate.

[MADem]

2. Even a close decision in NC is trouble for Obama. nt

[anonymous171]

4. Why? This is a race for delegates. Wolfson said so himself.

Whoever has the most delegates wins.

[MADem]

34. Whoever has 2024 delegates wins. If they don't reach that number, all bets are off.

Who died and made Wolfson boss, anyway?

Nice try.

[Gore1FL]

58. How can anyone not make 2024?

how do you split 4048 by two and not meet that mark?

[MADem]

73. Edwards still has twenty two or so. NT

[Gore1FL]

86. Now that you mention it, he does have a handful

It's pretty unrealistic at this point to assume that the spread will be within 18.

There are 699 remaining delegates. Obama needs 293 to get to 2025. As long as he doesn't consistently lose by about 20%, he has 2025.

[thunder rising]

9. Wrong ... this is done, She can only make it quick if she quits..but this race is finished goooObama

[MADem]

36. I see you've changed your one line schtick. Meet the new spam, same as the old spam...nt

[Ken Burch]

46. Anything that's trouble for Obama is trouble for the party.

HRC is not a morally acceptable nominee unless she stops all negative campaigning against her Democratic opponent. She should ONLY be bashing McCain. Even you would have to agree with that.

[MADem]

50. Well, you think that if it makes you happy. NT

[Ken Burch]

56. You know as well as I do that a HRC nomination, if she gets it this way

has to doom us to defeat.

You know she's dividing us for no reason.

You know she's wrong to create a false split between activists and working-class voters, when the truth is both groups agree on the important issues.

She's campaigning like Nixon and Agnew these days. If you're a Democrat, that should make you sick.

[MADem]

72. You keep thinking that if it makes you happy. I will never agree with you.

And cut with the "if you're a Democrat" nonsense.

If YOU are a Democrat, you wouldn't go casting aspersions upon others in the big tent, just because they don't support your favorite.

That's a cheap, obvious shot--and an un-Democratic one, too.

[U4ikLefty]

94. If Hillary supporters wouldn't start fires under the "big tent"

by using Rethug tactics, then maybe people wouldn't see them as un-Democratic.

And why don't you cut out the condescending "if it makes you happy" BS while your at it.

[MADem]

100. Not allowing your team to steamroller the few of us here isn't 'starting fires'

but thanks for playing. We have consolation prizes for you....

What's condescending is your view that Clinton is an obstruction, rather than a candidate.

You support YOUR candidate, for a change. If you can.

Stop ineffectually trying to tear down MINE. It's not working, and it just makes you look foolish and petty.

[Zhade]

88. So you DON'T agree that clinton should only be attacking McLame?

Wow.

[MADem]

95. From whence did you pull that, based on my comments?

Come on, give it up. Disengenuous "Wow" and all. :eyes: It's unhelpful.

Actually, though, since you asked, I think Clinton should be DEBATING anyone in the race who has differences with her. No one should be off limits. That's the idea, so voters can figure out where each candidate stands on the issues.

But people who are easily offended and unused to political discussion often do mistake debate for "attack." Especially when their favorite ox is getting gored.

[Secret_Society]

3. Fantastic news!!!

[Ken Burch]

48. ..if you're John McCain, that is.

Since her nomination would have to doom us to defeat if she wins negatively, a HRC victory can't be good for progressives and Democrats.

If you campaign ugly, you have to govern ugly.

[BootinUp]

5. Oh Boy. nt

[thunder rising]

6. Keep on dreaming BillBots ... it will be over soon.

[MADem]

39. Billbots, eh? How mature of you. "Bill" isn't running. You're over a decade out of date. NT

[rodeodance]

93. Grow up for once. and stop the stupid smear jobs on Hillary supporters.

[zabet]

7. Excellent news!!

Thanks for posting!

:woohoo:

[ProSense]

8. Still over.

It's over

[leftofcool]

10. Hillary will take NC

[RBInMaine]

14. Very Doubtful

[shayes51]

15. Yes, she will!

[RBInMaine]

35. VERY doubtful.

[PseudoIntellect]

77. Very doubtful. This poll is an outlier, just like the one that had Obama up in PA.

[emilyg]

75. I hope so.

[Bensthename]

11. bs. Real Clear Politics has him holding at +10 for last several days.

Poll Date Sample Obama Clinton Spread
RCP Average 04/26 - 04/28 50.3 40.0 Obama +10.3
SurveyUSA 04/26 - 04/28 49 44 Obama +5.0
Rasmussen 04/28 - 04/28 51 37 Obama +14.0
PPP (D) 04/26 - 04/27 51 39 Obama +12.0

[Arkansas Granny]

20. The latest date on those polls is 4/28, before his news conference concerning

Rev. Wright. There has been movement In Clinton's favor in other polls over the last two days. We'll just have to see if a trend is developing here.

[Bensthename]

24. I dont see his polls dropping after this.

Actually the polling was done mainly when MSM was masturbating how awful Wright was. His polls should stay steady IMHO..

[Secret_Society]

23. But all those polls indicate movement towards Clinton

Each respective polling firm has shown Obama dropping in NC when comparing their two most recent.

[jefferson_dem]

12. Methodologically, this poll is a hunk of crap.

IA's Matt Towery is and always has been a repug stooge and his firm is nowhere near credible.

The bozo just said that, regardless of his poll's digits, Obama will win NC.

He way underestimates the AA turnout (only 25% of all Dems) and AA support for Obama (only 64%).

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/uploaded/43_InsiderAdvantage_Majority_Opinion_NC_Dem_Poll_(4-30-08).pdf

That's ok. Now she's expected to win NC. She's already done as far as the nomination goes. Once she doesn't win NC, there will be no believable spin to be spun.

[Frank Booth]

18. That's true. Hillary's clearly favored in North Carolina. Anything less than a 5 point win for her

just proves that her campaign has crashed and burned even more than it already did.

[quakerboy]

47. Yup. If she looses NC, that means she can't close the deal, which would be troubling.

[rodeodance]

102. ha , The question remains. WHY CAN'T OBAMA CLOSE THE DEAL???

[MadBadger]

19. Actually, he has AA support at 64 percent for Obama

[jefferson_dem]

21. Thanks hnmnf. That's what I was thinking. Not sure how I ended up with the typo.

:hi:

[MadBadger]

25. First, I think AA turnout will be around 30-33 percent, not 24 percent. And Obama will get 85-90%

that would change the poll greatly.

[kmsarvis]

52. 30-33% is a coservative estimate......

40% of the registered dems in NC are African-American.

[MadBadger]

79. But this poll has 15% unaffiliated.

[MadBadger]

33. Readjusting, thinking he wins 90 percent of the black vote and it is 32 percent of the state:

I still see it 57-43 Obama.

[jefferson_dem]

57. I think 32% AA turnout is conservative. I'm predicting closer to 40%.

I like your prediction.

[my3boyz]

104. However, he used the same numbers of

blacks and whites in the previous poll and it showed Obama way ahead. Now all of a sudden a big drop in support for Obama. If he loses NC it will hurt him big time. It might not affect the numbers much but the media has hyped how he will have this huge double digit win in NC. Chuck Todd kept going on and on about how the state was the perfect storm for Obama (lots of African Americans, lots of more educated whites,lots of upper income dems and lots of students). If he loses here it will be because he lost one of his core groups of support. I usually pretend like things are okay (so as not to give Hillbots the satisfaction) but after the Susa poll and this one saying he is losing support in the research triangle I'm very nervous! I hope Obama does not take NC for granted and spends all of his time in Indiana. IMO he can afford to lose Indiana but not North Carolina! The pundits have said over and over that if either of them can steal a state they were not supposed to win they could change the direction of the primary. Either Obama could put HIllary out or Hillary could become very competitive again. Just imagine the hype if Hillary wins North Carolina. I'm so pissed at Rev Wright! At first I was proud that Obama did not denounce him for political reasons. NOw I wish he had denounced him early on and been finished with it. Maybe this is a temporary dip like he had after Wright 1.0. I just hope he has enough time for the polls to swing back up favorably for him.

[gabeana]

26. you got a point there I found this

Blacks have historically accounted for about one-third of voters in North Carolina's Democratic primary. Obama has won a string of Southern primaries and caucuses in states with a large share of black voters.

then there is this in the article
More than four times as many blacks have registered to vote in North Carolina during the first few months of 2008 as four years ago, a sign that bodes well for Sen. Barack Obama in the state's May 6 Democratic presidential primary.

so it does look like they underestimated black turn out

http://www.ncdp.org/NC_Voter_Registrations_Surge_Mike_Trujillo

[Pirate Smile]

44. They are 38% of the early vote.

But, hey, I'm all for this new mantra - Hillary is going to win North Carolina.

[Zhade]

90. Indeed, it'll make Obama's victory even sweeter.

NT!

[RBInMaine]

13. This is a BS poll and everyone knows it. I.A. polls are always way off.

[Secret_Society]

68. I.A. was almost spot on in PA and Texas

[Zhade]

91. "Almost spot on" - except that Obama ended up WINNING Texas.

NT!

[DemsUnited]

16. Excellent -- this outlier lowers the bar for Obama.

Having this outlier in the mix brings down the "poll of polls" number that is just so gosh darned important to the MSM and the expectations game.

Just like having the PPP outlier calculated into the average raised the bar for Barack in Pennsylvania by bringing the average down to about six when it should have been eight or nine.

[Frank Booth]

61. Outlier? Please. This sets the standard.

In fact, since undecides usually break for HRC, she should win by at least 5%.

If she doesn't, it shows that she's not a viable candidate. Just like most of the other primary contests have already shown.

[stop the bleeding]

17. you're hurting

:beer:

[Tropics_Dude83]

22. Wow!

At first, I thought this was Indiana! When I realized it was North Carolina, my shock was profound. Incredible.

A Hillary win in NC. Amazing. If it happens.

AGAIN, this is why I posted last night that Obama will drop out in 2 weeks.

[leftofcool]

28. It will be the upset of the century

even if she loses by a couple of points, she wins.

[Tropics_Dude83]

30. Upset doesn't even begin to describe it n/t

[jefferson_dem]

32. She wins what? LOL. The upset of the century is Obama's thorough spanking of the ClintonInc machine

[RiverStone]

27. Breaking! Look at this:

RCP Average 04/26 - 04/28 -- 50.3 40.0 Obama +10.3

That's for NC.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html

[leftofcool]

29. sorry that was 2 days ago

[Secret_Society]

38. Obama is fading fast in NC

Here are the comparisons of those firms cited in the RCP Average previous two polls

Survey USA
Obama +5 (was +9)

Rasmussen
Obama +14 (was +21)

PPP
Obama +12 (was +25)

[Upton]

31. This looks rather ominous

hopefully now that Obama has cut ties to Rev. Wright he will get back on track. Also, he still has the delegate lead to fall back on.

[RBInMaine]

41. A ration of polls right now have him winning NC by large margins and gaining again nationally.

[Maddy McCall]

37. And undecideds always break for Hillary. 66%!

So if this holds, the undecideds will add at least 5 points to Hillary.

:woohoo:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. Some Random Points

1) I'll await confirmation... This poll seems like an outlier...

2) Senator Obama will be the nominee... The Supers will not deny Obama the nomination no matter how small his pop vote or pleadged delegate lead is...

3) If Hillary beats him convincingly in IN, PR, KY, and WV, continues to poll much better against McSame, and Barack continues to bleed white working class votes, and there is no resolution of the Florida and Michigan delegate mess the convention in Denver will look more like a funeral than a coronation...

[RBInMaine]

42. No, it'll shake out by mid to late June at the latest. STOP WORRYING.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. How Will It Shake Out?

If recent trends continue Hillary will win IN, KY, WV, and PR by convincing margins...She will continue to poll better against McSame...Senator Obama will continue to fail to connect with down scale whites and white women....There will be no resolution of the FL and MI mess... The party will be split in half with African Americans and the highly educated and affluent on one side and women, Latinos, and working class whites on the other side...The losing side will be beyond pissed... Some will stay home and some will even vote for McSame...

Barack Obama will be leading a party split in half... And as Lincoln said " a house divided against itself can not stand."

The one thing the Dems have going for them is this is a horrible political environment to be a Republican and McSame despite his resume is a poor candidate...He has no ooomph...

I'm glad I'm not a Super Delegate...

[RBInMaine]

67. Here's how it will shake out.

If Obama wins, Hillary and Bill will come on board and work for the ticket as good Democrats. It is doubtful that Hillary would accept a VP spot, but that is possible. If so, she'd bring women bigtime and her other constituencies in large numbers. If she didn't want VP, Obama would get Webb, Kaine, or someone like those two who would be helpful with white working class folks. Liberal women would go Obama. Some white working class and older voters might leave if Obama is at the top.

If Hillary gets it, she'd almost have to offer VP to Obama who would bring his organization, money machine, blacks, upscalers, young and new voters, urbanites, and men. If she didn't offer him VP, his supporters would feel very disenfranchised and some may walk away. Many are VERY angry at how negative she has gone. If he's not VP under Hillary, she'd do well to pick another person who could help her with his base, maybe Bill Richardson.

My "it will all shake out" point is that we will have the nomination and FL/MI resolved by late June.

I will admit that if Obama loses NC, he will have some real endgame difficulty. If he wins there, that's enough momentum to allow him to win SD, OR, and MT. Hillary will take IN, PR, KY, and WV.

If he wins NC, my guess is that's how it will play out and Obama wins the nomination in early June.

[RBInMaine]

69. Today's market analysts have HC winning IN and BA winning NC, both large spreads.

[MadBadger]

45. I agree that this poll seems to be an outlier

I think they underestimate the black turnout and Obama's share of that vote. SUSA has the African American turnout at 33% for example. This has it at 25%. SUSA also is very slow when it comes to Obama's black support. I think a poll three weeks ago or so in PA with Insider advantage, had Obama with only 55% black support. We all know how that turned out.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. Sometimes A Pollster Can Get The Results He Wants- Cough-Zogby

And this poll makes for a great story...

[MadBadger]

60. I meant Insider Advantage is slow with the black support.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

64. They Knew A Poll With Those Results Would Get A Lot Of Attention

That's why I never look at one poll...

[IrishBloodEngHeart]

43. A very high number of undecideds

that is strange. I hope its an outlier.

[Alexander]

49. And how many polls had Obama winning in PA? This is an outlier.

So after Hillary gets crushed in NC, do we get to run around yelling "Double digits! Double digits!" and crowing about how Hillary can't win?

[rwheeler31]

55. Crap

[NJSecularist]

59. Yup, I would bet that is the feeling of the Obama campaign right now. n/t

[jefferson_dem]

66. So NJSecularist is going on record with the prediction that Hillary will win NC.

And if...when she doesn't...?

[NJSecularist]

70. Obama will probably win by 5.

But to come close to losing in a state with 30% of the electoral being black, and they vote 90-10 for you, and you still only win by 5, tells us that you are getting a bare minimum of white support and are getting closer and closer to becoming unelectable.

[jefferson_dem]

62. This poll is...

Even the repuglican hack pollster said so tonight. The internal demos are all fucked up.

[vegetabletasty]

63. Why this poll should raise eyebrows

Insider Advantage is a Republican polling company. At this point, Republicans no longer seek to hurt Hillary. They seek to weaken the front-runner, who is Obama, for obvious reasons. For this reason, it's likely that Insider Advantage's agenda is to exaggerate Hillary's numbers and minimize Obama's, or in other words, IA is making numbers up.

[jefferson_dem]

71. Funny how this "poll" was rolled out on Shammity's FauxNews show tonight...

The theme of which was "Uppity Negro Obama's hurtin' poll numbers."

[Aloha Spirit]

65. Ha... 25% black? Is that a joke?

[kmsarvis]

74. my reaction too.....

I live in NC . The African-American turnout will be between 35-40%......40% of NCs registered dems are African-American.

[Hoof Hearted]

76. HOLY SHIT WE DID IT.

Jus a little from one of my favorite movies.

[Zhade]

96. Bookmarked for future "I told you so".

Can't wait!

[TragedyandHope]

78. Well, actually...

[ErinBerin84]

80. as an Obama supporter,

I am ALL FOR upping Hillary Clinton's expectations in North Carolina.
hannity = insanity

[rodeodance]

98. We do not spin ourselves. so do not make that ASSumption

[ErinBerin84]

99. Jesus Christ. ....

I said nothing about Hillary supporters, I am making fun of Republican polls, Hannity, and the media's expectation games. As an Obama supporter, I am all for upping the media's expectations of Hillary in North Carolina. Not sure what you took away from my post that warranted your response.

[rodeodance]

106. point taken.

[Beacool]

81. Wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That's fantastic!!!!!!!!!!!

[Edgewater_Joe]

82. Under 500 Phone Calls, Hillbot

Your daily reminder: HILLARY HAS LOST.

Please try to get this through your thick skull, unless you really want McSameAsBush in the White House.

[madfloridian]

83. NBC/WSJ: Obama Edges Clinton 46%-43%....CBS/NYT: Obama Leads Clinton 46%-38%

Just tonight from TPM

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

[Tropics_Dude83]

85. I am feeling 60-40 confident tonight that HRC is our nominee n/t

[Zhade]

97. Keep dreaming, Obama will be the nominee when you wake up.

NT!

[slinkerwink]

84. 35% of AAs go to Clinton. That's laughable. All this does is set up expectations for Hillary.

[DemGa]

89. Very good -- NT

[madfloridian]

92. Go to Real Clear Politics and TPM....Obama is leading nationally again.

.

[Blue_Roses]

101. You do know that MattTowery is a republican who used to work for

Gingrich don't you. His polls are very biased and unreliable.

[book_worm]

105. This will be the outliar of the primary (like that one poll that had Obama 3 up in PA)

For one thing I think the AA is under polled, but Obama will do much better than 64% of the black vote and Hillary won't get anywhere near 20%. Obama will get between 85-90 percent.