Obama's gift to the Rethugs in 2008: Florida, Ohio and 260 electoral votes.

[NJSecularist]

Florida
Latest Florida poll:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election
McCain: 53
Obama: 38

[nichomachus]

1. Polls about the GE seven months out are just bullshit

In politics a week is an eternity -- seven months is just unimaginable. What a waste of time!

[izquierdista]

4. An a speech from Hillary

Interminable

[MannyGoldstein]

5. You're Full Of Poop

Clinton has maintained her national 30% lead over Obama, no?

[ecdab]

21. One can only assume that somebody putting this much faith in polls

seven months out and when one party in still engaged in a primary, has never observed a presidential election before.

[NJSecularist]

23. Yet the Obama supporters keep telling everybody about the national polls daily.

[ecdab]

48. Some of them do - but those polls are about the current primary race

generally speaking (some Obama supporters pull out GE polling data as well - which shows the lack of knowledge those individuals have) which is relevant to the current race in a vague way.

However, that in no way makes the point of your thread the least bit valid. GE polling 7 months out has never been worth anything. That fact that you claim that such polls have shaped your opinion speaks to a serious lack of experience on your part.

[VotesForWomen]

78. you don't have to take a poll; it's common sense. nt

[Starbucks Anarchist]

2. You were for Obama fairly recently because of polls.

Now you're for Hillary because of polls.

Doesn't that tell you something about the nature of polling?

[NJSecularist]

6. National polls are different than state polls.

Too bad most Obama supporters don't realize that. I finally did, about a month ago. Obama performs terribly in the states we need to win.

[Nedsdag]

12. FYI:

Around the same time 16 years ago, Your Girl's husband was in THIRD place in the polls behind Poppy Bush and Ross Perot. If we took the polls seriously, America would've been saying President Perot.

Well, we know what happened, right?

[Bake]

71. Please don't use "Your Girl" for Sen. Clinton

Unless you don't mind Sen. Obama being referred to as "Your Boy."

Yeah. I didn't think so.

Bake

[tammywammy]

79. Hillary says "I'm your girl"

http://youtube.com/watch?v=xD1EkCKP164

[Bake]

80. Somehow I doubt the poster meant it quite that way ...

Bake

[Starbucks Anarchist]

20. It's seven months before the election.

Hillary was supposed to beat Obama in PA by 20+ points and couldn't do it, despite it being a "home state" and the favorable demographics, yet you brag about Hillary being within the margin of error in Florida.

[jenmito]

26. Obama beats McCain in Indiana by 8 points. Hillary ties McCain.

:shrug:

[NJSecularist]

29. One cherrypicked poll that is a complete outlier doesn't prove your point.

Indiana hasn't went Democratic since LBJ ran in 1964. It certainly won't go Democratic this year.

[jenmito]

44. If you remember all these results, maybe you'll "rethink" your sudden "change of heart":

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5706579&mesg_id=5706579

[gmudem]

73. You should check out Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina,

South Carolina, Texas, Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada.

And I've told you this before but you do your best to ignore it. Hillary is looking very weak in Washington, Oregon, Connecticut, Iowa, New Jersey, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire to name a few. I can't wait for her to spend the money she doesn't have defending herself in these states.

But yea you're definitely right. As long as Hillary is leading an April poll of Ohio she's guaranteed to win it.

Not that any of this matters, because Obama will be the nominee. And he will be going on the offensive in red states, while Hillary would be on the defensive in many blue states.

[Secret_Society]

55. If we're going to pick absurd polls

how the tie that Obama and McCain are in in Massachusetts. I'm pretty sure the Bay State won't be hotly contest

[jefferson_dem]

7. Don't believe the bs.

This poster was never for Obama.

[MadBadger]

37. delete

[jefferson_dem]

51. I know what you're thinking...

:hi:

[DJ13]

3. ........

[ginchinchili]

8. You have McCain's name twice in your Ohio poll.

I assume McCain's is the higher number.

[baldguy]

9. MOE of 4.4% in OH and 4.5% in FL

Almost useless info.

[Vinca]

10. Sometimes I want Hillary to be the nominee for the sole pleasure

of saying "I told you so" when McCain is sworn in. Hillary has no better chance in Florida than any other Democratic candidate. That chance is slim to none because of the rampant stealing of votes which hasn't been corrected (ask Christine Jennings). Granted, she has a chance in Ohio given Ken Blackwell is gone, but it's not a sure thing. Obama has a chance to pick up western states we usually don't win, but I realize in your mind any state Obama can win doesn't count.

[NJSecularist]

11. Obama has to win all 3 western states that Bush carried in 2004 and Pennsylvania.

Since he won't carry Ohio and Florida.

He has no margin for error.

[Vinca]

22. Other posters have put up other maps showing the exact opposite

of your argument for Hillary. I don't think either has an advantage. For everything you find objectionable about Obama, there's always the unfavorable Hillary percentages in the background. Her negatives overshadow her positives. If she happens to pull it off - which would be nothing short of a miracle - it'll be fun to see how fast her new buddies - Richard Mellon Scaife and Rupert Murdoch - turn on her.

[NJSecularist]

What maps? What are you talking about?

Tell me what's wrong with my maps.

[Vinca]

33. If I had the energy I'd go searching for them. Someone seems

to post maps in favor of each candidate on a fairly regular basis. This whole forum is like Groundhog Day. If you watch, they will return.

[BzaDem]

56. Sometimes I want Obama to be the nominee for the sole pleasure

of saying "I told you so" when McCain is sworn in.

If Obama does not win PA and OH, he loses. Period. He is not going to sweep all the close western states, which he would need to do to make up all the EVs he would lose in the big states.

I really wonder how we can take an election we should easily win and turn it into an obvious loss, months in advance.

Keep in mind I have nothing againts Obama personally, and I would be supporting him if I thought he were most electable. But it is obvious to anyone who isn't biased that he isn't.

[featherman]

13. Silly stuff... no Republican is going to win Ohio in the current political

climate. Only someone outside the state would think so. The Ohio GOP is in chaos having hit rock bottom in "brand name" approval. The entire state apparatus is (finally) in strong DEM hands. Only the naive could fail to understand what this means in ground game.

I agree Florida is likely off the table.

[NJSecularist]

17. McCain is winning Ohio in current polling.

In addition, Ohio contains a large portion of Appalachia, the same area that the netroots is deeming racist as we speak at Daily Kos.

[Dawgs]

25. Current polling doesn't mean shit until we have a nominee.

If Hillary would do the right thing and move her ass out of the way, those numbers you are desperately sighting would be completely different.

[NJSecularist]

27. And what if Obama moved his ass out of the way?

Would Hillary's polling increase? Would the Rethugs only have 180 electoral votes to begin with instead of the 200 they have now?

[featherman]

34. Sorry I'm a practical pol and know what the ground is like in Ohio

I stand by my statement... head-to-head April polls without a settled DEM nominee are for entertainment purposes only, not serious discussion...come back and throw another set of multiple polls my way in September and October... then we can talk seriously about this stuff

[mckeown1128]

14. You accidentally put Clinton instead of McCain for your first polling statistic...

but don't worry about it. I understand that it is hard to tell the difference between Clinton and McCain. It is a VERY easy mistake. ;)

[goldcanyonaz]

15. We are gonna win the South!!!! Right?

[HockeyMom]

16. I'm in Florida and will sit home if Hillary is nominee

Count on it. I am a former New Yorker. I don't see much difference between her and McCain.

[ruggerson]

28. no. not much difference between Scalia and Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

[HockeyMom]

64. If there is an Iran war

It will not matter very much WHO is on the Supreme Court.

[otohara]

18. Isn't Losing Florida

part of Hillary's scorched earth policy against Obama so she can run in 2012?

When she was inevitable candidate, she didn't give Florida second thought because she would win the other "BIG" states. She's come back to Florida saying I'm fighting for you to be counted NOW because I'm no longer inevitable.

They were so damn sure of themselves in the beginning and Barack was the long shot. He followed the rules, she said, I can win with out them and all those pain in the ass little caucus states. Her word means nothing, she will burn down the house before she plays by the rules she agreed to.

Florida will punish Obama come November for following party rules - that must make you very happy indeed.

[jenmito]

19. You were supposedly an Obama supporter 'til last week when you said if Obama lost by 10 or more in

PA, we'd have to "think about it." He lost by 9 and now you're a full-fledged HILLARY supporter, complete with calling those of us who really support Obama "Obamites"?! :wtf:

[BeyondGeography]

31. The poster is behaving like someone who only recently discovered he was gay

overcompensating for months of repressed attraction to data that portrays Obama in a less than favorable light.

[jenmito]

45. That's funny...

but probably true.

[shraby]

24. That was a gift to McCain from the Democratic

party in Florida for breaking the rules. No one else is to blame..they were forewarned not to do it and there would be penalties. They did it anyway. Put the blame precisely where it belongs...not on Obama. The candidates respected the rules until Hillary needed the vote to count, and she is now making the noise. You can bet if she didn't need them and Obama did, she would keep her mouth shut. She might as well shut up now, because they won't do her any good anyway.

[NJSecularist]

30. I blame Obama for being a terrible fit in Florida.

The Florida Republican Party screwed up and the Florida Democrats were complacent, but that doesn't matter anymore. What matters is the general election, and Obama isn't even competitive in Florida. Hillary has a chance to win it.

[Aloha Spirit]

32. Self-delete. I don't have anything positive to say, so I'll just shut up.

[Exilednight]

35. If you're attempting to use current polling to set up your map, then you should know that...........

current polling by the NY Times shows Hillary losing New York state to McLame.

[NJSecularist]

40. Should I take away the state from Obama also? He's losing in the poll also.

That wouldn't make much sense. Regardless of which nominee we choose, neither Democratic is losing New York.

It's an outlier poll.

[Exilednight]

41. Actually, Obama wins NY in the same poll versus McLame. n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

36. OK, Nostradamus.

:freak:

[blue sky at night]

38. SO What........

maybe you think we should just quit having elections and go with the polls.....get a freaking life.

In essence you think it would be against our best interests to vote for Obama, when voting for HRC is essentially voting for the GOP. SO What.......IS..........the..........difference.

[MadBadger]

39. Thanks Jack

[elizm]

42. Obama will be beating McCain as soon as he can start campaigning against him...

As long as Hillary stays in the race to run interference, Obama can't focus like he needs to on McCain.

[cliffordu]

43. Slow day?? I'm glad you wasted a post with this bait.

FALE (sic)

[MojoMojoMojo]

46. If the "bradley effect" holds true as it has in Ca Tx Pa Obama will lose

to Mccain by a far larger margin.

[Hansel]

47. Or maybe it's Clinton and FL party leaders that are the gifts

This is a good reason for FL party leaders to start taking some responsibility for the mess they created instead of blaming Obama. If he loses Florida, Clinton and the Florida party leader will be largely to blame.

[NJSecularist]

49. Only Obama is to blame if he loses Florida.

It's not Hillary's fault.

[Gore1FL]

50. It is only her fault

that she lost the nomination.

[TTUBatfan2008]

53. Actually...

it's not Obama's fault that he can't win old white people. I do believe that's a societal problem and it is built-in to older white people. I'd rather call this country out on its inherent racism by him losing massively to McCain than not nominate him because of this fear of racism making him unelectable. Some things are more important than winning elections, including forcing the media to call it what it is rather than asking, "Why can't Obama win working class and older white people?" I think the damn answer is pretty frickin' obvious but the media won't call it what it is.

[NJSecularist]

54. Racism? So old people who aren't voting for him are racists?

Not everybody who doesn't vote for Obama is a racist.

[TTUBatfan2008]

58. But plenty of them are...

and you do realize that many of them will never, ever admit to it. But they are. And it's not necessarily their damn fault. They were raised in a segregated society, a society that encouraged bigoted points of view. With older voters, there are a couple of factors that go against Obama that are both tied into the function of time. The first is his youth. They don't trust someone that doesn't have much experience. The second is inherent racism that they will never admit to consciously, but it plays a role in how they vote whether they realize it or not. Both of these are a function of time in that older people tend to not trust younger people. It's just the way life is. Likewise, younger people will go for a younger candidate over an older one for the same reason. And as I mentioned before, the other function of time is that these people lived in a time when it was acceptable and encouraged within society to openly hold racist views. I know plenty of older people that use racial slurs but don't mean it when they do. It's just the environment they grew up in and I'm sure they would unconsciously never vote for a black person. Society is to blame for it. It's a function of time that will eventually be purged from society altogether.

[BzaDem]

57. I don't buy your premise. But even if I did, you would really throw the SCOTUS away for 20 years

just to make a statement?

With a SCOTUS you would get with your plan, that would set rights for minorities far, far back. For decades. All so you can make a statement.

[TTUBatfan2008]

62. I'm not a Democrat...

I'm an Independent and I am anti-abortion. I am also anti-war and anti-death penalty. Pro-life all the way around, so Roe v. Wade is not an issue for me. I do worry about the threat against the Constitution posed by another Republican administration, particularly one with a war monger at the head of it. I'm sick of good, normal people's rights being ignored all with the excuse that it's part of the "war on terror." Our privacy laws have been under assault from GWB's administration and I do fear that it would continue if McCain gets elected. But I'm sorry. Social justice is a major issue to me, a more important one than worrying about whether Roe v. Wade is overturned. And you might be right that a conservative court would cause plenty of problems in the area of social justice, but those justices are scrutinized by the media and what they decide could cause serious backlash if perceived as being the result of racial bias.

[annie1]

61. maybe they just aren't into his message, or are big on experience...

and don't want to entrust their future into someone that young and inexperienced. it's not to say he *can't* be good for them, but a lot of people just aren't into the whole hope/change thing. and not to say he can't fine tune his message if he takes the nom, but as of right now, some types of people aren't into hope/change. For example, Older people have lived through gov't long enough to either know or believe that it cannot be changed. and working class people may be more concerned about their immediate welfare and don't want to take a chance on someone so new, esp. when his rhetoric is very lofty and less safe sounding than a policy wonk. they might be into someone who comes off as more pragmatic. I am risk-averse and that is probably one of the reasons i favor hillary. older people are more risk averse.

[TTUBatfan2008]

63. This is something I said in another post...

There are two key factors that go against Obama with older voters, outside of the obvious (that they don't agree with his policies). The first is his youth/lack of experience, which is a conscious thing and makes plenty of sense to me. The other is something that not even they can explain because it's not a conscious thing. I don't think it's straight-up racism, but it's an unconscious factor whereas the other 2 are conscious factors. All 3 can be involved or any combination, including simply not liking his policies and therefore voting for whoever that person feels has better policies. I suspect the youth factor is the one that hurts him the most by far amongst older voters, just like it helps him the most by far amongst younger voters.

[RBInMaine]

52. Once again, a HillFAN INSANELY tries to compare primary results with GE. STUPID !!

[annie1]

59. He can take OH no problem, but he can kiss Florida goodbye.

[oasis]

60. K and r for the super delegates.

[Nedsdag]

65. Sixteen years ago,

Hillary's husband was in THIRD place in the polls behind Poppy Bush AND Ross Perot. If we would've believe the polls in 1992, America would be saluting President Perot.

[Robbins]

68. Facts

Back In 1992 untill the Democratic convention Bill Clinton never lead George Bush.Back In 2000
Bush lead Al Gore by double digets at this time and Bush had to resort to stealing(with the help of Ralph Nader) and at this time Jhn Kerry was leading Bush In 2004.To say April poll numbers will be the results In November Is not reality.Florida Is not going to be easy for any Democrat to win.
Republicans have strengthen control since 2000.Democrats should spend more time In Virginia than
In Florida.To win we need to keep the Kerry States(polls suggest Obama does as will as Hillary In
New Jersey.They both only lead Mccain by 3.He has now a double diget lead in massachutes.He would do better In Michigan.He wins Wisconsion and Washington State which she loses.And he can win Pa.
Plus Hillary loses NH to Mccain while Obama has a shot at It) win the Gore states of Iowa and
New Mexico(although last poll have both running behind now It should not be wrtten off) and win 2
other states.Obama Is competive In Ohio.Mccain lead Is basiclly a deadheat.There are openings out west for Democrats.And do I have to mention that Mccain,and the MSM hasn't hit Hillary,and she has lower favorables and more unfavorable numbers.If you think there Is no chance of her poll numbers
going down then the Hillary supporters are living In fantasy.

[avrdream]

66. Yeah, mydd.com has Hillary ahead of McCain as well.

A change is going to come, indeed.

[Milo_Bloom]

67. How do idiots not understand this?

Dear Idiots who put stock in these polls,


During every primary season, dating back... well... FOREVER... when we are down to 2 candidates, the losing candidates voters CLAIM they are going to vote for the opposing party candidate OVER the direct competitor, because they are trying to PROVE their candidate would be better in the election.

Thus, the second place candidate ALWAYS looks like a better option this far out. Check Gore/Bradley numbers, Kerry/Edwards numbers, Bush/McCain numbers... they ALL showed exactly this above.

Basically you can't turn a 3 way race into a 2 way race in polling, because bitter partisans who are losing give answers either they don't mean OR will change their mind before the election.

SO OF COURSE OBAMA IS POLLING WORSE. He is being measured against 2 people right now.


Is this sinking in?

[IronLionZion]

69. Let's just do away with campaigning and elections because NJSecularist can pick em from now on.

Did you forget the absence of any campaigning in Florida or Ohio? How did Kerry and Gore do in those states?

I have a feeling Obama will pleasantly surprise all of us, thanks to his pretty awesome habit of turning out new voters and indies. Many red and purple state Dems are supporting Obama because he has long coattails due to the increased turnout. Big Blue's gonna crush the Republicans! This is a Democratic year.

[onenote]

70. accuracy alerts: those are cherry picked user generated maps

However, if you go to http://www.270towin.com/2008_polls/mccain_clinton/
and http://www.270towin.com/2008_polls/mccain_obama/

you'll see the results based not on cherry picked information but consensus information from multiple polls.

What you will find is interesting, but not surprising: McCain/Clinton has Clinton trailing 203/190 with the rest undeceded. Obama/McCain shows Obama doing slightly worse: 212/180. However, digging deeper, you find that in terms of states that are "strongly" for one candidate or another, Clinton is only strong in states with 15 electoral votes, and McCain, running against her, is strong in states with 88. In contrast, Obama is strong in states with 38 Electoral votes and McCain drops down to being strong only in states with 55 electoral votes. Which suggests more states are actually in play with Obama as the candidate than HRC.

Most importantly, of course, is the fact that GE polls conducted in April, before the nominee is known, before VPs candidates have been named, before any debates between McCain and the Democratic nominee, aren't worth squat.

[damonm]

72. A small problem with your analysis...

Is that Obama has not campaigned in FL AT ALL, and has shown a marked tendency to overcome large leads.

Another is that Obama has not yet campaigned against McCain directly - there has been no debate between them as yet, so Ohio has not yet been able to draw the contrast between them.

[Hepburn]

74. Another total waste of Bandwidth from NJS....

...:eyes:

[rg302200]

75. I am from Ohio and if you think its going Blue in November

then you need an awaking....McCain is going to win, I have come to terms with that! But where Obama helps us is that he puts NEW states into play, states such as N.C, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa...states ALL won by republicans last year! Now McCain has to spend money where he doesn't want to limiting what he can spend else well. Where as Hillary only puts Ohio, PA and Florida into play....the same game plan Kerry had and we all see how that worked out for him huh?

Our only hope is Obama, plan and simple! Lots of people in Ohio are not interesting in having a Bush or Clinton in the whitehouse for almost 25 years!!!!!

[stevietheman]

76. Say anything you like -- Barack Obama is the nominee. n/t

n/t

[zulchzulu]

77. Obama will do very strongly in LA, MS, NC, VA, MO and even TX

McSame is going to be a weak candidate in the South as well as perhaps Ohio based on his pro-NAFTA stances. It's way too early to speculate, but Obama's new dynamics could change the Southern vote for a few decades.

We'll see...