How McCain Lost in Pennsylvania

[EV_Ares]

IT’S a nightmare. It’s the Bataan Death March. It’s mutually assured Armageddon. “Both of them are already losing the general to John McCain,” declared a Newsweek columnist last month, predicting that the election “may already be over” by the time the Democrats anoint a nominee. Not so fast. If we’ve learned any new rule in the 2008 campaign, it’s this: Once our news culture sets a story in stone, chances are it will crumble. But first it must be recycled louder and louder 24/7, as if sheer repetition will transmute conventional wisdom into reality.

When the Pennsylvania returns rained down Tuesday night, the narrative became clear fast. The Democrats’ exit polls spelled disaster: Some 25 percent of the primary voters said they would defect to Mr. McCain or not vote at all if Barack Obama were the nominee. How could the party possibly survive this bitter, perhaps race-based civil war?

But as the doomsday alarm grew shrill, few noticed that on this same day in Pennsylvania, 27 percent of Republican primary voters didn’t just tell pollsters they would defect from their party’s standard-bearer; they went to the polls, gas prices be damned, to vote against Mr. McCain. Though ignored by every channel I surfed, there actually was a G.O.P. primary on Tuesday, open only to registered Republicans. And while it was superfluous in determining that party’s nominee, 220,000 Pennsylvania Republicans (out of their total turnout of 807,000) were moved to cast ballots for Mike Huckabee or, more numerously, Ron Paul. That’s more voters than the margin (215,000) that separated Hillary Clinton and Mr. Obama.

Those antiwar Paul voters are all potential defectors to the Democrats in November. Mr. Huckabee’s religious conservatives, who rejected Mr. McCain throughout the primary season, might also bolt or stay home. Given that the Democratic ticket beat Bush-Cheney in Pennsylvania by 205,000 votes in 2000 and 144,000 votes in 2004, these are 220,000 voters the G.O.P. can ill-afford to lose. Especially since there are now a million more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania. (These figures don’t even include independents, who couldn’t vote in either primary on Tuesday and have been migrating toward the Democrats since 2006.)

For such a bitterly divided party, the Democrats hardly show signs of clinical depression. The last debate, however dumb, had the most viewers of any so far. The rise in turnout and new voters is all on the Democratic side. Even before its deathbed transfusion of new donations, the Clinton campaign trounced the McCain campaign in fund-raising by 2.5 to 1. (The Obama-McCain ratio is 3 to 1.)

Read entire article @ link below:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/27/opinion/27rich.html?ref=opinion

[Captain Hilts]

1. McCain's numbers just aren't moving. He's not benefitting from this period as expected. nt

[EV_Ares]

4. Also Obama is flush with cash and Hillary has big money problems.

Apr 21st, 2008 | WASHINGTON -- Barack Obama began the month of April with a 5-1 cash advantage over a debt-saddled Hillary Rodham Clinton, setting the stage for his lopsided spending in the crucial primary state of Pennsylvania.

Financial reports filed Sunday by the Democratic presidential candidates with the Federal Election Commission show Clinton had $10.3 million in debts at the start of the month and only about $9 million cash on hand for the primaries. Obama reported having $42 million for the primary.

Clinton's red ink poses yet another obstacle to her campaign as she seeks to end the primary season with a string of victories. She trails Obama in delegates, states won and popular votes. And she can't dent Obama's superior fundraising.

The March money positioned Obama to undertake an expensive April campaign in Pennsylvania, where he has spent at least twice as much as Clinton and cut into her lead. Pennsylvania votes on Tuesday.

Clinton, who had kept pace with Obama financially throughout last year, had even less cash on hand than Republican John McCain. McCain raised $15.2 million in March and had $11.6 million in the bank at the start of April. It was his best fundraising performance of the campaign, coming after he had essentially secured his party's presidential nomination.

With the Democratic contest still in full boil, McCain has been on the sidelines, saving his money and completing payments on a loan.

Rest of Salon article @ link below:

http://www.salon.com/wires/ap/2008/04/21/D9064ING0_camp...

[Cosmocat]

2. I made note of this all week ...

the MSM narrative is that Hill is breathing down Obama's neck, or at best that he "can't close the deal" ...

Meanwhile, running against what in political terms would be two dead men, McCain somehow only got 25% of the vote, and the turnout was well less than half the Ds ...

[boobooday]

3. This is a great analysis

It's clear that as parties go, the momentum is all on the D side.