Obama will clinch the Nomination on June 3. Here's why.

[FlyingSquirrel]

As previously stated in this thread, many of the 304 remaining Superdelegates are "Pelosi Club" supers who will endorse the Pledged Delegate Winner. Obama is expected to take more than half the pledged delegates on May 20, ensuring that he will be that winner.

As noted in this thread, many other Superdelegates are likely waiting for this moment as well, and they won't want the intense media attention, candidate pressure and possible negative attention from Clinton/Obama supporters that might follow if they were to wait too long and cast their deciding votes at the end of the process.

Also as noted in the above thread, the DNC would probably prefer to see this race decided by the primaries - not by the superdelegates. Looks more democratic.

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Some of the Superdelegates have not even been chosen yet. There are about 35 that won't be chosen by June 3. Subtract them from the 304 and you get 269. Take out Al Gore and Jimmy Carter, they probably won't endorse till the Convention. 267.

If only 40% of those delegates endorse Barack Obama after he has taken more than half the pledged delegates, that would be about 106 more for him.

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Here's the scenario, reasonable-case for Obama.

GU 50%, IN 47%, NC 54%, WV 42%, KY 32%, OR 53%

GU 2, IN 34, NC 62, WV 12, KY 16, OR 28 = 154 Delegates by May 20

1491 + 154 = 1645 Pledged Delegates on May 20 ... (1627 = half the 3,253)

234 Superdelegates have endorsed Obama thus far.
106 Superdelegates endorse Obama between now and May 30 (most coming after the May 20 primaries)

1645 + 234 + 106 = 1985 total delegates for Obama before June 1 and 3 primaries.

2024 - 1985 = 39 delegates needed for Obama to clinch the nomination in the final 3 primaries.

PR 44%, MT 52%, SD 53%

PR 24, MT 8, SD 8 = 40 Delegates on June 3

End of story.

(And in reality, perhaps he'll get a few more superdelegates before those primaries just so we won't be biting our nails, and we'll be able to call him the presumptive nominee soon after May 20 even though he hasn't quite clinched it yet).

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Edit: Oh yeah - MI and FL? Don't worry about it. By the time they get sorted out, so many Superdelegates will have switched sides that they'll be academic. They'll be included in some fashion to make Michiganders and Floridians satisfied at the Convention. Much ado about nothing in the end.

[BenDavid]

1. Sorry, but today Howard Dean said the following, Super delegates

do have the right to overthrow the popular vote and elect the best candidate to go up against John McCain."

Shalom
Ben David

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. Heard that and it doesn't matter.

Because the Superdelegates think on their own and not at Howard Dean's bidding. You haven't addressed the fact that they've been steadily endorsing Obama over Clinton ever since Super Tuesday. And you have not refuted the premise that many will make their endorsements before the primaries end to avoid the intense media attention and pressure to which they would otherwise be subjected. You haven't refuted the fact that many plan to endorse the Pledged Delegate Winner. Better believe the media will be noticing when he's taken over half of them. You haven't refuted shit, just posted a one-liner which is why you were on my ignore list in the first place. I only took you off momentarily to see who the first jerkoff to post a response might be and how completely without merit or thought their post was. I pretty much expected exactly what I got.

:hi:

[Joe the Revelator]

5. Why do you blatantly misquote and spin this comment? Denial at this point is just dopey

Grow up Ben David.

[cliffordu]

6. Benny - don't read any more into that yet....He might have been

speaking to the ones that have already committed to Hillary, too.\


Ya nevah know....

[still_one]

7. The best candidate isn't clinton, who has disgraced the party by

misleading statements from her campaign on whether Obama was a Muslim, or patriotic enough, or that mccain and she were qualified to be president, but Obama was just a speech

No, this long primary has shown me the true colors of the clintons

[Gore1FL]

9. But as shown above

they won't need to.

[Median Democrat]

3. Florida and Michigan Are The Ace In The Hole

If the party elders want to switch to Hillary Clinton, then they can count Michigan and Florida to bolster the argument that she is the stronger candidate even though no one campaigned in these two states. Conversely, if the Superdelegates go with Obama, then they just leave well enough alone, and avoid changing the rules regarding Michigan and Florida. So, I think Florida and Michigan can be used justify either decision by the DNC.

[still_one]

8. Well let's see if the can cause us to lose another election /nt

[still_one]

4. I hope you are right, but I think the DLC that used to control the party isn't going to concede

and they will bribe, blackmail, or whatever it takes to insure the SD go for Hillary

Maybe I am just too cynical about human nature, and the SD will do the right thing

[FlyingSquirrel]

13. I think the SD will do the right thing

And I'm actually encouraged by the fact that the DLC doesn't seem to favor Obama and the MSM is now trying to tear him down.

[candice]

10. Michigan and Florida voters don't count ...

and the DNC is throwing the typical Dem under the bus.

[Political Heretic]

11. It's the state parties that are to blame.

Try putting the blame where it belongs for once.

I'm mad too. I think what happened to MI and FL sucks. But the fault lies right at the state. Period. If I lived in MI or FL I'd be in the streets demanding a change of state party leadership.

[Boz]

12. May 20th, Oregon, Obama, Magic Number, Democratic Nominee