Obama in Ohio versus Obama in PA

[scheming daemons]

Among voters 60 and older:
OH 28%
PA 38%
(+10)

Among white voters:
OH 34%
PA 38%
(+4)

Among white male voters:
OH 39%
PA 44%
(+5)

Among white female voters:
OH 31%
PA 34%
(+3)

Among voters making less than 50K:
OH 42%
PA 46%
(+4)


Obama cut into every single Hillary Demographic in PA, despite:

- The Wright controversy
- The "bitter" controversy
- The Ayers controversy
- Various other minor "gates"
- Hillary having the backing of the most powerful person in the state, Ed Rendell
- PA having a lower percentage of black population than Ohio
- PA having a higher percentage of seniors than Ohio
- A greater percentage of female vote in PA (58%) than in OH (55%)


In addition, he cut his overall margin of defeat from 10.8% (OH) to 9.4% (PA). And in the process, he managed to drive his opponent into bankrupcy.


The "dead cat bounce" for Hillary that was PA...

If you had a laboratory and could create a group of people with the perfect demographic profile for Hillary, you'd create PA.

...and she couldn't even reach 55%.


Obama is "broken"? In the 7 weeks between OH and PA, he improved in every demographic, raised twice as much money, gathered in 5 times as many superdelegates, and moved to double-digit leads in national tracking polls over Hillary.... all the while sustaining a media assault on his character that made swiftboating and Willie Horton look like a walk in the park.


He's going to be fine President.

[FrenchieCat]

1. Problem is that Hillary supporters don't "do" math

of anykind. :(

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. Good stuff

k&r

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

3. expect an update on the "dead cat bounce" around 4 PM at PA SOS site

looks like the margin will be 8 points, not 9.

Chuck Todd admitted via email to Obama supporter that the media is talking over
the real math.

Its the fracking media that's killing our democracy, or trying.

oh, and love your "dead cat bounce" analogy, no offense to cat lovers
(I have two cats).

[ShortnFiery]

4. "He's going to be fine President."

Thank-you for the data and thoughtful perspective. :hi:

[Cant trust em]

5. Did he drop in any categories? NT

[Debi]

7. Okay, okay, okay - he has less debt than her

happy now x(

(actually I don't know the answer to your question - but I do know that the Obama campaign has been run by financial and fund raising geniuses!)

:hi:

[scheming daemons]

8. Yes...... Catholics (-5), college-educated (-2)..... n/t

[moc]

6. LOL at "dead cat bounce"

:rofl:

[thereismore]

9. I can't imagine the next two weeks could be harder for him than the last 6.

What else can Hillary dig up on him? I know she will try, but I think all she's got left is rehashing Wright. The bitter comment wasn't even about Indiana. She sucks.

He's on his way to the White House.

[Cha]

22. They're making up shit as we

discuss.

[John Q. Citizen]

10. Yes, the real story from PA is that Obama is cutting into his opponents demographic base.

[scheming daemons]

11. Yes.... but will this story be told by the MSM?

[John Q. Citizen]

15. It will emerge, but not forcefully.

[BattyDem]

12. KO said it best last night

Clinton may have won, but Obama is on an upward trajectory and she is on a downward trajectory.

[cbayer]

13. Could you source your data?

Thanks in advance.

[scheming daemons]

16. Here ya go:

PA exit polls:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#PADEM


OH exit polls:


http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#OHDEM

[Terran]

14. Good find

Thanks for this interesting information--it's very telling.

[scheming daemons]

17. kick

[scheming daemons]

18. Kicking my own thread.....

[book_worm]

19. He is cutting into her base and yet she can't cut into his.

[JBoy]

23. Barack: Im in ur base, swayin ur doods.

[wileedog]

20. Kicked for truthiness

[DemsUnited]

21. kick and rec and thanks for doing the math.

[geiger]

24. great job; thanks for the info. will forward.

[TragedyandHope]

25. K & R Very informative stats