The Real Math: 2024

[beachmom]

That is the only number that counts. Barack Obama is now 300 delegates away from arriving at that number. North Carolina and Indiana will bring him even closer. His campaign has said they just need 100 Superdelegates to reach the magic number.

Spin and "New Math" are all well and good, and even meant something earlier in the race. But I remember the day John McCain achieved the Republican "Magic Number": Mike Huckabee then dropped out because the race was over. Ron Paul continued, but was given little attention. John McCain AT THAT MOMENT became the Republican nominee. So it will be when the Democrat gets to 2024 delegates.

It is too late for spinning, guys. What it comes down to is getting to 2024. I have heard NO REPORTS to suggest that the Superdelegates are going to flood to Hillary, and that is the ONLY WAY she can reach 2024. She doesn't just need to get a decent majority of the Supers. She needs a blowout majority of those uncommitted Supers. Until I hear a report suggesting a tide of Supers going to her, I am under the assumption that we are just running around screaming when the race is essentially over. I do not say that as spin, but based on the numbers, which in their full objectivity do not change due to spin doctors.

[DUyellow]

1. They will say: super delegates can change at anytime between now and Denver.

[crispini]

2. Party insiders will say: if it goes to Denver, we are toast.

Anybody who's been around for awhile knows this.

[DUyellow]

Doesn't matter. Good example is FL MI, rules do not matter, only spin.

[DUyellow]

6. I'm concern a Dem can even win the GE when the party cannot control the spin with the media.

[beachmom]

7. It will ONLY go to the convention if neither candidate has reached 2024.

That is a fact.

[crispini]

8. Actually, that's why I'm kind of Okay with this being decided by the SD's

They, like us, know what spin is and can see through it. They are canny political folk who have been around for a long while.

I heard an interview with one on NPR the other day who said he definitely did not want to see it go to the convention as he had been around for Carter - Kennedy and knew perfectly well if it went to convention it would hurt us.

[Crabby Appleton]

3. Indeed they can, this race will end in Denver. nt

[beachmom]

5. Like it or not the media is very powerful. And that number 2024 is also

very powerful. According to DNC rules, 2024 means you have won the nomination. The media, as disgusting and maddening as they are, will concede she has lost, even if she won't. This, by the way, is why Kerry had to concede Ohio. Because media had called the race. They will call the race when Obama reaches 2024.

[crispini]

9. Nope. Once it hits 2024, it's over.

And the SD's will make that happen no later than June.

They are long time political activists; they know how bad it would be for it to go to the convention. If it goes to the convention, it doesn't matter who the nominee is -- that person will LOSE to McCain.

[beachmom]

4. If Supers come out publicly and the Delegate count (which Big Media is keeping track of)

gets him to the number 2024, then the Clinton campaign will become marginalized. Their arguments will be considered not based in reality. They can say that now; they can't say it once he is the nominee, which is what 2024 represents.

[MindMatter]

10. They are tracking 2024 like they tracked uS deaths in Iraq

Which is to say, most of them still don't have a clue about this campaign. It took most of them 3 years to figure out we had a horrible quagmire in Iraq. A very small % of the MSM understand the Obama numbers, which really aren't complicated at all. Most of them still report that Clinton won Texas, which is simply wrong. Factually wrong.

Last night, you heard a few more of the MSM starting to get the picture. Basically PA was like a football team entering the 4th quarter down by 5 touchdowns. It is still possible to win it if you get some magic. Extremely unlikely, but possible.

Now it is becoming clear that the Clinton team took the first 6 minutes of the 4th quarter making a nice scoring drive. They were able the score because Obama was playing prevent defense -- resisting getting dirty while Clinton was clawing, scratching, and eye-gouging. Clinton used up 6 minutes AND HAD TO SETTLE FOR A FIELD GOAL. She is still more than 4 touchdowns down and now Obama has the ball (North Carolina).

There is still a possibility that Obama will fumble 4 times and Hillary will complete 5 Hail Mary passes in 6 minutes. There is still a possibility that I will be named Pope one day soon. But considering I am an atheist, my odds are about the same as Hillary's.