To the good folks at PPP...

[PBS Poll-435]

I am sure that I am not violating the rules of DU regarding the calling-out of the more enthusiastic ones among us...

PPP -

Really? You really wanted to become irrelevant overnight? Really?

Obama +3 in Pennsylvania? Really?

No sir. Not this time.

[thewiseguy]

1. They were right about the Philly margin.

[PBS Poll-435]

2. Do they want a prize?

I have TONS of Halloween candy to give. Tons.

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3. Zogby was right this time...eww... the bile.. it is ... coming ....up

:puke:

I need some Pepto!

[MercutioATC]

4. Actually, you should all bow to ME!!!

I called a 9-point win for Clinton 3 weeks ago.

Line up...I'll rub your bellies and tell your fortunes.

[PBS Poll-435]

5. I can't wait...

Can I leave my wallet in the car?

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6. Obama +3!!!

Really?

Is this an AMWAY joint?

[PBS Poll-435]

7. Old Polling #s = OLD MATH

[FlyingSquirrel]

8. Yup, they get an F.

But Zogby wasn't as good as you're thinking.

Yes, their final poll got it right - but just a two days before that they had Clinton up by only 3. If you average all four of their polls from March 22-April 22, they are second to last behind PPP.

Their average was a 5.25% win by Clinton.

Of pollsters that did multiple polls in PA:

PPP - Obama by 1.25%
Zogby - Clinton by 5.25%
Rasmussen - Clinton by 6.17%
Quinnipiac - Clinton by 7%
Strategic Vision - Clinton by 7.25%
InsiderAdvantage - Clinton by 7.5%
ARG - Clinton by 11.25%
SurveyUSA - Clinton by 12.5%

Looks like ARG came closest, followed by InsiderAdvantage and SurveyUSA. Honorable mention to Strategic Vision and Quinnipiac.

Zogby perhaps got lucky in its final poll but that ain't worth much to me. None of the others predicted more than a 7-point lead for Clinton in their final poll, with the exception of ARG which gave her 13 points.

If you averaged all the pollsters above except PPP over the past month, you'd have been predicting an 8.1-point margin.

If you only averaged the final two polls from each of the pollsters above except PPP, you'd come up with an 8.6% margin.

If you averaged the final poll from EVERY pollster except PPP, you'd get a 7.3% margin.

If you averaged every poll taken within the past two weeks by ANY pollster except PPP, 7.7%

-----

So here's the deal. Either NONE of the pollsters were all that accurate, (even ARG gave her a 20-point margin on its second-to-last poll, just after predicting a 45-45 tie the week before), or something happened in the last few days because that extra 2-3% must have come from somewhere. Either undecided voters swung to Clinton in a BIG way, or........

:shrug:

Looks like the best method might be to average the final two polls from each pollster that does multiple polls in the state. With the exception of the obvious outlier. The exit polls did show undecideds going to Clinton by about 60%.

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9. I am gonna stick with SUSA.

They seem to get the job done. And without hysterics or theories...

[FlyingSquirrel]

10. They did ok, although their last poll called it at 6%

12-18-14-6. ARG was all over the place too, 12-0-20-13. InsiderAdvantage went 3-10-10-7, and StrategicVision went 8-5-9-7 so those two didn't fluctuate quite as much as the others.

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11. 6 is fine before factoring the undecideds...

They did very well for Hillary today.

[Yes We Did]

12. stop yourself... PA is a machine state that's rigged for the establishment candidate

The race is over... she can go on until he wins the presidency if she wants.

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13. PA flipped the vote for HRC? By that margin? Really?