THE MATH Update - 88% of Pennsylvania In

[phrigndumass]

88% of precincts counted in Pennsylvania ...

Projected PA Delegates:
Hillary Clinton - 86 (+14)
Barack Obama - 72

Projected PA Votes:
(Assume 55/45, 2,189,000 votes)
Hillary Clinton - 1,203,950 (+218,900)
Barack Obama - 985,050

Barack Obama's "popular" vote lead would be reduced to 654,766 (without Florida).

Barack Obama's "popular" vote lead would be reduced to 359,994 (with Florida).

.

Projected Delegates Henceforth (based on polls) (eta includes current SD count):


.

Projected "Popular" Votes Henceforth (based on polls):


.

Superdelegates Needed to Win Nomination (based on polls):


The Huckabee Index is now at 67 (or 22.8% of remaining superdelegates)

.

To see how things have changed since Sunday, check out the last update:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5576204

(Huckabee Index was 66, now 67)

:dunce:

[Occam Bandage]

1. Great post.

[CoffeeCat]

2. Great work...

...and now, it's 95 percent reporting and the gap is now 9.6 percent.

Hillary 54.8
Obama 45.2

[phrigndumass]

4. Thanks 2S ... I'll update in a bit =)

I love how Pennsylvania didn't make that much of a difference in the eventual outcome.

[bvar22]

27. 11PM Margin now 54% - 46% and closing...MSNBC

!

[phrigndumass]

33. Thanks bvar22! They'll probably leave it at 98% or 99% of the results in ...

... waiting for provisionals and absentees, and for those particularly hard to count precincts.

:hi:

[kwenu]

3. Why do Hillary supporters try to count Florida when it doesn't count?

[BzaDem]

Their delegates don't count. But SuperDs can consider anything they want, including Florida.

Sorry to burst your "Florida-doesn't-count" bubble.

[kwenu]

16. Don't worry. You didn't.

But I do find the SuperDs can consider anything they want justification interesting. It says quite a bit.

[stillcool]

31. Kind of funny that

the Super Delegates...many who make up the the National Democratic Committee, and who voted on the Primary rules in March of 2006, and also agreed to strip Florida and Michigan of their delegates back in August of 2007 would now consider the very elections they ruled null and void as an important factor in their decision making.

[phrigndumass]

32. Very strange indeed, but it has been said ...

... that nothing in Florida and Michigan will be counted unless both candidates agree on how to count them. I don't see them agreeing on a method anytime soon, do you?

:hi:

[BzaDem]

35. They aren't considering anything null and void. The rules they created allowed SuperDs to vote

however they want.

Pledged delegates make up 80% of the vote. That's more than enough for one candidate to win 2024 entirely on pledged delegates. That's what happens most of the time.

If it is close however, the 20% of SuperDs become relevent. Once again, the elections aren't null and void, because the more pledged delegates one has, the more superDs the other candidate must get to win.

So in short, the pledged delegates do still matter quite a bit. You just happen to have a black and white view (elections are either 100% or null and void).

[Gore1FL]

37. there are more super dleegates now than there ever was before

And "most" is a bit misleading as it implies a norm based on re-nominmation for Carter and Clinton, fails to take into account Winner take all states prior to 1992, and fails to recognizr that both Gore and Kerry won NH and IA.

[RB TexLa]

42. They can consider the strength of their morning coffee as a factor if they wish

Or they could literally flip a coin if they wanted to do so.

[BzaDem]

5. Dup.

[4_Legs_Good]

6. Because they're looking for a way to "win"

and they can't win playing fair.

They're trying to find some way to convince 70% of the Supers to break their way.

David

[phrigndumass]

7. Just for the sake of both sides' argument, I included the totals both ways

imho, nothing from Florida should be counted, because neither candidate was able to campaign there.

[joshcryer]

19. The SDs can decide on whatever they want.

They can decide on whose hairstyle they think is better.

[phrigndumass]

22. You're right, they can, but it's highly unlikely that 80% of them will agree with each other

... And that's what Senator Clinton needs: 80% of the remaining superdelegates to agree.

It's much more likely that the superdelegates will split 50/50 or 60/40, or maybe 2 to 1 at the most.

(eta the word "remaining" for clarification)

[HooptieWagon]

10. They're desperate.

[grantcart]

8. thanks

[Yes We Did]

9. PA was Rigged to give Clinton 10 point, 200,000 vote lead. What a sham!!!!

How predictable. They gave us the numbers and did a dance to make it look believable. Yes! No! Yes! No! While all along this process via Rendell cohorts were rigging the process. Good ole Diebold and touch screen.

[phrigndumass]

12. Doesn't make that much difference

:tinfoilhat:

:hi:

[BOHICA06]

14. Oh please ..... at least give us a tin foil alert! nt

[NeedleCast]

11. In Other Words

Things just got worse for Hillary tonight. That's what I see.

[phrigndumass]

13. Exactly. She needed 20.

:hi:

[RiverStone]

17. YES-YES-YES-YES-YES!!!! Why is this not obvious to the MSM?

[NeedleCast]

24. That's Easy

If they can continue to imply there's a delegrate race going on, they don't have to look for other "news" to cover.

[forintegrity]

30. Because MSM absolutely LOVES this kinda stuff!!!

They are into entertainment, not news. (Thus the so-called "Debate" last week that ABC aired.)

Also, they want to perpetuate this for as long as they can because while the Dems are still punching it out, McSame is given a free ride.

It's all part of the strategy for the Repuke MSM to help McSame get into the White House (because he'll need all the help he can get!)!

:mad:

[Guaranteed]

34. Because they keep forgetting that she's LOSING big time.

They're still thinking in terms of more than half and less than half. That doesn't do it for Clinton anymore.

[mod mom]

15. just a note on the delegate count, Provisional ballots will not be included in tonight's

numbers and their totals could be high among first time voters w(who favor Sen Obama):

Looking Ahead to the Pennsylvania Primary

Pennsylvania state Rep. Babette Josephs, who chairs the committee that oversees elections, is worried that many first-time voters will forget that they have to show ID.

"And I fear that some of those who have no time to go back home and get ID, that there may not be enough provisional ballots for them to vote, which is a procedure we allow here in the state," she says. Local officials say they're prepared for a heavy turnout, and that there should be enough ballots.

One advantage for Pennsylvania voters is that their provisional votes can be counted, if they're cast anywhere in the correct county. Many states require provisional votes to be cast in the correct precinct — a problem if a voter does not know where that is.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89667384&ft=1&f=1001

[phrigndumass]

20. That's important info, and will change the end-results. Should go Obama's way.

Thanks for sharing that, mod mom!

The most likely outcome for pledged delegates will probably be +8 to +10 for Senator Clinton, instead of +14.

:hi:

[thevoiceofreason]

18. Excellent work, as usual.

Watching for spin numbers now.

Any ideas or word on provisionals or absentees?

[phrigndumass]

21. Check out mod mom's reply a couple posts up

The spin is in! (but it won't change the cold hard numbers)

:hi:

[thevoiceofreason]

28. As I see it, she's not at a10% win yet,

Watching these last numbers closely.

[hogwyld]

44. What I want to know is when you're going to do your math

thing again? Who knows, you might get another delegate or two in PA, like you did in MS.

[grantcart]

23. Obama moves closer to 'Pelosi Trigger' New Magic Number 143

A significant number of Super Delegates have indicated that they will endorse the candidate who has the majority of pledged delegates. With the addition of 68 pledged delegates (projected) in PA primary Senator Obama took a huge step in securing that position. His magic number was 211 and is now only 143 pledged delegates until he has secured the majority.

[phrigndumass]

26. That's a VERY important number to watch!

Pelosi's halfway mark will set the Huckabee Index into motion. And Pelosi's number will decrease quicker, because we don't have to wait six weeks for another stinkin' primary!

:hi:

[speedoo]

39. Pelosi trigger?

This is new to me. Can someone provide a link or brief explanation?

Thanks!

[phrigndumass]

40. Once half of the total pledged delegates are won by a candidate ...

... a group of superdelegates, led by Nancy Pelosi, are set to endorse for that candidate.

Check out grantcart's journal, it should be in there somewhere:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/grantcart

There's also info at demconwatch:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/superdelegates-pledging-to-back.html

:hi:

[speedoo]

45. Thanks!

I just happened to read grantcart's latest post. It's clear to me now.

[FedoraLV]

41. The bottom line

grantcart,

thank you for the reminder!

GOBAMA!

-FedoraLV

[speedoo]

25. K&R. Thanks for posting. nt

How refreshing to see some actual data without infection from talking heads!

[phrigndumass]

29. The talking heads took it to the river and burned down the house

Thanks!

:hi:

[RiverStone]

36. Obama is now only losing by 9.7%

Hillary Rodham Clinton 1,230,407 54.7%
Barack Obama 1,018,056 45.3%

98% reporting | Updated 12:31 AM ET

OK, so maybe I'm milking it to the last drop! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

38. Terrific! It will be better than the results in my OP.

:donut: It's good to the last drop!

:9 :9 :9

[bigbrother05]

43. Now at 8.6

I like your numbers better than mine

[phrigndumass]

46. Cool !!

8.6 would be the size of Obama's earthquake in Pennsylvania!

:applause: