CNN exits: Obama wins Philly with 69%, Philly suburbs with 62%

[usregimechange]

Clinton winning out west by 61%. Guys this is going to be close...

[Zachstar]

1. It does seem like it is going to be a hell of alot closer than I thought!

A Clinton win by over 10 is looking to be less likely by the min!

[tishaLA]

7. in fact, it looks impossible

this is very good news

[Hamlette]

13. She has to win by 10% to stay in because of fund raising

or so they just said on MSNBC (after talking to Hillary people)

[george_maniakes]

2. Anyone remember a marvel comic way back when called "The Pitt"?

Did it have anything to do with Pittsburgh?

[Zhade]

25. It was Image comics, just "Pitt", and I don't remember!

NT!

[angie_love]

3. OMG he won Philly? YES!

[usregimechange]

11. The bigger news is how well he has done in the burbs, that was not expected

[uponit7771]

29. The burbs is out of the park!!! GOBAMA!!

[book_worm]

4. that is bigger than expected in the 'burbs I think

That would mean taking Philly and the burbs by about 65%, yes, very close race overall.

[uponit7771]

5. The suburbs by 62% !!! That's out of the park!!!!!

[NJSecularist]

6. He didn't win Philly by 69%

That is the amount of the vote he got in the Philadelphia area. He won by 38%.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

8. What were the required margins beforehand?

[gcomeau]

9. Umm... BY 69 or WITH 69?

[YDogg]

17. my thoughts exactly

[usregimechange]

31. Your right, somewhat confusing, corrected.

[thewiseguy]

10. Dude if those exits are correct then Obama has won Pennsylvania

I had a thread about t his last night. He needed to win Philly by 60%. Only PPP had him winning Philly by those margins.

[NJSecularist]

15. He didn't win Philly by 69%. He won it by 38%.

[book_worm]

19. Isn't it he won 69% of the vote in Philly?

[thewiseguy]

20. I meant to say if he got 60% + of the vote in Philly. Only PPD had him up in Philly by 20 points!

I am telling you, if Obama got 69% of the vote in Philadelphia, this thing is over. Game over.

[tiptoe]

44. yep. nt

[tiptoe]

30. PPP's regional data and analysis, 4-weeks thru 4/21 (MoE 2%): see #24 nt

[goletian]

12. remember when they saw obama camps predictions of how the primaries would pan out

and it was so accurate they called it the bible? these people know what theyre doing.

[ScarletSniper]

14. Holy Shit!!!

[tabasco]

16. WTF Pittsburgh?

Get with the program.

[usregimechange]

22. Pittsburgh is included in the west number, went for Clinton, although inner city pitt and other area

s likely went for him, not by the much because rural areas pushed her numbers up

[TheDonkey]

27. Pittsburgh SUCKS

well the surrounding farm country is quite racist and backwards let's get real PAers. I am from Westmoreland county, believe me I know. Not everyone but A LOT of em and these results do not shock me unfortunately.

[tabasco]

35. I used to live in Pittsburgh and then in Imperial.

Imperial had a lot of stupid fucking necks.

Pittsburgh is a great town though. Love it.

[Tatiana]

18. Yeah. Maybe even Missouri close. More delegates to be had in Philly than in the rural areas. n/t

[dbmk]

21. Hmm..

This could be close. There is a threshold in CD#2 at 72,222% for a 7-2 split - that I had more or less expected.

And CD #1 needs 64,286% for a 5-2 split - that was also more or less expected.

Thats 4 delegates on right on the wire.

More on the districts here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5608247

[woolldog]

23. Those are excellent numbers for the Philly burbs.

[usregimechange]

36. Those are outstanding numbers! None of the polls showed even a average win there for him

[tiptoe]

40. anything over 63% in metro philly == Undecideds (10%) breaking for Obama: -- see data in #24 nt

[woolldog]

45. Do we have any idea what voter turnout was like in SE PA?

Could we have a replay of Missouri here?

[tiptoe]

24. "...metro Philadelphia area. If there is huge turnout there he has a chance...." --Pollster PPP

Final Pennsylvania Poll Shows Tight Race
Raleigh, N.C. – Public Policy Polling’s final survey in Pennsylvania continues to show an extremely tight race. Barack Obama has a 49–46** lead over Hillary Clinton in the state.

This is the fourth week in a row PPP has shown the race within three points. Obama had a three point edge last week, Clinton had the three point advantage two weeks ago, and Obama was up two three weeks ago.

“With such a close race, the winner of the Pennsylvania primary is going to come down to turnout,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama leads 58–32 in the metro Philadelphia area. If there is huge turnout there he has a chance.”
...
Obama’s small lead comes from his standard coalition of men, black and younger voters. He leads 55–34 with men and 81–12 with African Americans. He has a 50–39 edge with voters ages 18–29 and 49–41 with those between 30–45.

Clinton’s strength comes from women, whites, and older voters, but her margins with those groups are not as large as they have been at other points in the Pennsylvania contest. She leads women (50–41) and senior citizens (48–42) by single digits and will have a hard time scoring the kind of dominant victory she needs if those numbers don’t improve.
...

**Undecided respondents were asked if they were leaning toward one of the candidates, and the 49-46 lead comes with those factored in.

                                           April 21 / April 16 / April 9 / April 2

Trend		              + Clinton     + Obama        + Obama     + Clinton        + ???
         
              Pennsylvania    NorthEast     SouthEast    SouthCentral  WestCentral    SouthWest
Weight (4/21)     100            9 %           45%           10%           10%           26%    
  
Clinton       43/42/46/43    65/57/64/62   32/33/35/37   39/41/43/35   57/48/60/53   51/52/50/45
Obama         47/45/43/45    27/28/30/26   58/53/53/53   52/46/42/50   31/39/31/30   38/37/37/39
Undecided     10/13/11/13     8/15/ 6/11   10/14/12/10    8/12/15/15   11/13/ 9/18   11/11/13/16
  
  
  
Northeast PA     defined as area codes 570 
    Scranton, Williamsport
Southeast PA     defined as area codes 215, 267, 484, 610 
    Philadelphia 
South Central PA defined as area codes 717 
    Harrisburg, Lancaster, York
Southwest PA     defined as area codes 412, 724 
    Pittsburgh, Bethel Park, Monroeville, New Castle
West Central PA  defined as area codes 814 
    State College, Erie, Altoona

(major cities)



April 21

PPP surveyed 2338 likely Democratic primary voters on April 19th and 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 2.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

April 16

PPP surveyed 1095 likely Democratic primary voters on April 14th and 15th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

April 9

PPP surveyed 1124 likely Democratic primary voters on April 7th and 8th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

April 2

PPP surveyed 1224 likely Democratic primary voters on March 31st and April 1st. The survey’s margin of errors is +/- 2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Public Policy Polling had the most accurate numbers of any company in the country for the Democratic primaries in South Carolina and Wisconsin, as well as the closest numbers for any organization that polled the contests in both Texas and Ohio.

[book_worm]

26. I'm very pleased with Philly area numbers, but Pittsburgh I thought would be a bit tighter.

[gcomeau]

28. Ok, just checked. "WITH" 69%... "WITH".

I was rooting for "by" but that didn't sound at all likely.

Vote by Region -- Clinton -- Obama

Philadelphia (16%) -- 31% -- 69%
Philadelphia Suburbs (13%) -- 37% -- 62%
Northeast Pa.(14%) -- 66% -- 34%
Pittsburgh/West (33%) -- 61% -- 38%
Central/Northern Pa. (24%) -- 52% -- 48%

[dbmk]

32. PUUUSH!

Philadelphia (16%) -- 31% -- 69%
Philadelphia Suburbs (13%) -- 37% -- 62%

If those two numbers shift 3+ in Obamas favour - thats prob. a four delegate shift.

[Tribetime]

33. with those no.s Obama has 48%

[Adelante]

38. Central/Northern is interesting

That's surprisingly close.

[dbmk]

43. That was my thought as well.

[k8conant]

48. This must be what projections are based on: Clinton by 3.7% state-wide

We'll see...I wish Obama could pull it out overall.

[Scurrilous]

34. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Kber]

37. According to EXITS

Don't get too excited yet, either way.

[ProSense]

39. Jewish vote: Clinton 53%, Obama 47% n/t

[Starbucks Anarchist]

41. Was that better than expected for Obama?

[rocktivity]

46. ANYTHING over 45% is GREAT for Obama

:bounce:
rocknation

[IamyourTVandIownyou]

42. Oh Philadelphia freedom shine on me, I love you

Elton John - Philadelphia Freedom (Soul Train circa 1975)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkMXnk16kiE&feature=related


Get down.

[Aloha Spirit]

47. CNN Exit poll-- Clinton dominates among people for whom race and/or gender is important. Ha.