Ok, DU pundits... Step right up and make your PA predictions!

[FlyingSquirrel]

And put your name by 'em below for bragging rights!

Handy link to Pollster.com

[Dbdmjs1022]

1. My heart says Obama, but my head says Hillary 3-5%

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. I'll say Clinton by 1-2%

But of course I'd love to see an Obama upset.

[Diamond Dog]

3. Clinton 6-8%

[David Dunham]

4. Unfortunately, Clinton by 15%

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. Wow.

:wow:

That would be a bad thing for Obama.

[Beregond2]

7. Not at all.

Clinton needs a massive win in PA, and she won't get it. I'm guessing she wins by 3 - 4%, but I know nothing about PA, so it is just a feeling.

[DeadElephant_ORG]

6. Obama by 1 to 3 percent

[jordi_fanclub]

8. Obama wins by 1-3% (n/t)

[madwivoter]

37. I like your positive outlook :)

And hope it's true :bounce:

I predict Clinton will get it by 6% - I'm NEVER right about these things though...and now we wait...

:popcorn:

[maximusveritas]

9. Clinton by 13%

I've found that the polls tend to overstate Obama's position in certain states and PA fits the mold.

[Tribetime]

10. man this isn't like diebold, it only gave me one vote

[FlyingSquirrel]

13. HA

:rofl:

Sounds like a DUzy to me

[SoCalDem]

30. You think that vote COUNTED??

:rofl:

Grovelbot changed your vote and gave it to Ron Paul:)

[alcibiades_mystery]

11. Clinton by 10%, unfortunately

[Swamp Rat]

12. OBAMA IN A LANDSLIDE VICTORY!!! ... HE'S GOT WHAT VOTERS CRAVE!!!

He's got electrovotes. :D

[Catherina]

14. Obama 7 - 9% n/t

[juajen]

15. Clinton by 18%.

NT

[susankh4]

48. I'm with ya!

Clinton 15 to 20%.

[Hoof Hearted]

16. Clinton by 9.25% MoE +/- 2%

howz that?

[newmajority]

17. Hillary by 5% (courtesy of Diebold, Rendell, Limbaugh, and racist sheeple)

Technically, it's a win for her. But it doesn't mean shit in the Big Picture.

[TK421]

21. What's with the racist sheeple? Who are you referring to here?

:shrug:

[newmajority]

26. Rendell himself said that there were a lot of racists in PA

who would "never vote for a black man". Other accounts have said that between Pittsburgh and Philly, it might as well be "Alabama".

[TK421]

28. Oh, yeah...the area between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia

very rural...and the funny thing, I've been there ( out by Blue Mountain, my brother-in-laws family actually owns an island out in Orbisonia )sp? I've met the people there...trust me...nothing like what you may have heard.

[Alexander]

18. Clinton: 52.5% / Obama: 47.5% - Clinton by 5%.

[LiberalAndProud]

19. Clinton @ 7%.

[TK421]

20. More than 10% and then some...at least in Bucks County

I can't speak for the rest of my state, but Philly does seem to be a split

We'll find out tomorrow, I suppose

[TheDoorbellRang]

22. This official thread I'll say Obama wins 51-49%

I've gotta be right in one of my many guesses. Hope it's this one. :)

[FlyingSquirrel]

25. Me too!

:)

[SeattleGirl]

23. Clinton by 3%-5%

[FlyingSquirrel]

27. I went with 1-2%, but that would have been my second guess

Pretty popular choice, I see.

I wonder how that will be spun by both camps if it comes true.

[gokansas]

24. Billary by 10

[tishaLA]

29. Clinton by 8%

My prediction from the beginning. Sen Clinton gets most undecideds, who are people who don't want to tell pollsters they are voting for her. The media declares it a draw--not enough margin to claim a real victory or a real defeat.

[Frank Booth]

31. Clinton by 10%.

I think Obama would have cut it to 5% if not for the staged "debate."

I haven't learned much in the last 7 1/2 years, but I have learned that the media determines people's opinions.

[Awsi Dooger]

32. Hillary by less than anticipated

I sense closer than expected, a Hillary win but mid single digits, primarily due to the settled perspective of the race compared to early March in Ohio and Texas, when it was less obvious to Hillary supporters that the math didn't work for her. At that point there was still outside hope of re-votes in Florida and Michigan. My instinct is some weariness of the extended campaign, and signs that Obama has not fared well while under scrutiny, will actually improve his fortunes in Pennsylvania, undecided voters giving him the benefit of a doubt.

I bet Hillary heavily in Ohio at barely worse than 50/50. Now the damn Intrade tariff in Pennsylvania is roughly 90/10. It never dropped to my Go price of 60/40. I'd be surprised if she managed her Ohio margin.

This is what busts me up, the desperate rationale that Hillary needs to beat the spread, garbage like Chris Matthews claiming the over/under is 8 and anything less than that will be comparitive failure. That must sound really clever to the brain cells, when they dream up something like that. I note similar threads all over this forum. Now fast forward to what a 3 or 4 or 5 point, or similar, Hillary win would look like:

* Victory speech by one candidate alone, smiles and celebration in the background for a half hour, covered by all the cable networks, and guaranteed the superior speech of the two, based on confidence and atmosphere

* Relatively short concession speech by Obama, less smiles and zest than normal, deflated room

* Margin of victory flashed on the screen all night, gap of tens of thousands of votes if not more, alongside the percentages

* Pundits re-visiting the theme that Obama can't win the major states, or put Hillary away, and what that signifies toward November, if anything

* Newspaper headlines across the country atop page one, trumpeting a Hillary win.

Yes, there would be rightful focus on the delegate apportionment, barely cutting into Obama's margin. But that's primarily a specialist's topic, something that will be front and center here and elsewhere on the internet, but initial media reports are aimed to the masses and the bottom line of a Hillary win dominates the news. That would be the taxi cab and water cooler highlight on Wednesday.

If Obama wins, absolutely it's over. But anyone who pretends a Hillary triumph will be downplayed or dismissed based on margin has a fuzzy vision of reality. Pennsylvania is roughly a +4 blue state in general election terms. And that means we basically take it for granted, no thought of failure unless our candidate is facing a national landslide. Yet in the primary we're desperate to imply a similar 4 point win would be spun as a loss? Please.

And it's also amusing when Obama supporters cling to the old 20+ deficit, asserting that's the true barometer, and it's amazing he's done so well. The Obama internal memo from a couple of months ago projected a 52-47 defeat. An isolated spot on the calendar with laser focus for 6 weeks and millions of bucks for 6 weeks was never a true 20 point hole, not even close, not on this planet.

[Khaotic]

33. Obama will squeak out 60 delegates from PA

... and that's about it.

Hillary will crow while she can.

It will be more even in IN, she'll get thrashed in N.C., she thrash him in KY, and he'll finish her off with Oregon.

Game over after Oregon, Obama will reach 50%+1 and SDs will go to him in droves.



After Oregon ... "Game over man, GAME OVER!!!"

[emilyg]

34. Clinton by 12%

[emilyg]

35. Clinton by 12%

[MercutioATC]

36. Clinton by 9.

[slinkerwink]

38. Clinton by 12

[DaLittle Kitty]

39. WTF...

:wtf:

[FlyingSquirrel]

40. I agree, I'm very surprised by the number of people expecting

double-digit Clinton win.

[FlyingSquirrel]

41. There's still time! Get yer braggin' rights right here!

:)

[Melinda]

42. Clinton by 6-8, which will net her 3 more delegates than Obama

or there abouts. ;)

[WA98296]

43. Sadly, Clinton by more than 10 BECAUSE: 'Unrecountable, Unverifiable, and Unauditable'

The right wing wants her in to continue to destroy the democratic party.

[SeaLyons]

44. Clinton by 15

[FlyingSquirrel]

45. 100 votes, not bad....

[FlyingSquirrel]

46. 1 hour 40 mins till polls close!

[thevolt1]

47. Clinton 56 Obama 44

[GCP]

49. Clinton by 11%

I called it last night.

[mia]

50. Obama wins by 1-3%

if not more.

[DangerousRhythm]

51. Clinton by 12 points

I'd even go as high as 15 points, actually. I'd personally love for Obama to squeak by with a win but right now I think this is closer to reality. :)

[Patsy Stone]

52. Hillary by 6%

But I'd love to see Obama win it.

[NeedleCast]

53. Hillary Doesn't Win By Enough

Don't really need to make a prediction past that. Hillary wont win by enough to make much of a dent in the delegate lead.

[dbmk]

54. Still going with 4% and 4 dels for HRC

As I guestimadicted here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5608247&mesg_id=5608247

[FlyingSquirrel]

55. 15 minutes!

:bounce:

[usregimechange]

56. Clinton by 2

[Georgie_92]

57. Clinton by 5%

[FlyingSquirrel]

58. *** TIME'S UP! FINAL RESULTS as of 8:00 PM EST: ***

Total Votes: 134


Clinton wins by over 10%: 33 votes, 25%

Clinton wins by 9-10%: 12 votes, 9%

Clinton wins by 6-8%: 26 votes, 19%

Clinton wins by 3-5%: 33 votes, 25%

Clinton wins by 1-2%: 3 votes, 2%

Near-Tie, either wins by less than 1%: 5 votes, 4%

Obama wins by 1-3%: 17 votes, 13%

Obama wins by 4-6%: 1 vote, 1%

Obama wins by 7-9%: 2 votes, 1%

Obama wins by 10% or more: 2 votes, 1%


Thanks for playing, we'll have some nice bragging rights coming right up.. in about... I dunno, tomorrow?

:silly:

[FlyingSquirrel]

59. Oh yeah... ***DING DING DING we have our winners!***

MercutioATC 9%
alcibiades_mystery 10%
gokansas 10%
Walter Sobchak 10%

Honorable Mention:

tishaLA 8%
Godlesscommieprevert 11%

And anyone else who chose "9-10%" (That was 12 votes, 9% of DU at 8pm EST)