Pennsylvania: “Trust us to count your vote, even though you can’t verify it” ( TIA )

[tiptoe]

Pennsylvania: “Trust us to count your vote, even though you can’t verify it”
TruthIsAll    http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/PennsylvaniaHistoricalVote.htm

The GOP wants to run against Clinton, because they believe she’s a weaker candidate than Obama. Just look at the polls: Obama does much better than HRC against McCain. But the GOP vote counters will make sure that Hillary gets enough votes in PA to keep her super delegate hopes alive. And since they control the unverifiable machine count, who will question the result?

Even if the pre-election and exit polls indicate a close race, those who control the machines and count the votes will sit back and watch the show — just like they have since 2000. They know there will be no recount; there’s nothing to recount. Only electronic voting machines will be used in this election.

Paper ballots? How quaint to want to see that the votes are fairly counted in full view. The politicians and the media have revised the old saying. It’s now “Trust, but don’t expect to verify”. No one will talk about 2008 primary election fraud, except for a handful of activists, like Michael Collins (autorank) and Brad Blog..

And as usual, the media and the politicians will just go along with the myth that late undecided voters broke for Hillary; that young Obama supporters didn’t vote; that Obama’s clock was cleaned in that ABC farce of a debate. The bought and paid for moderators asked Obama about his lapel and Reverend Wright, but they didn’t ask Clinton about husband Bill’s lucrative free-trade work for Columbia and his full-court NAFTA press.

Historically, Democratic presidential candidates have always fared better in the exit polls than the recorded vote. That’s because the Republicans cheat in every election — and they will in this one. In 2004, the exit polls had Kerry winning PA by 55–44; the recorded vote was 50.9–48.4, far exceeding the 2% margin of error. His 11 point margin shrank to 3%.

Kerry won 58.6% of the final 127,000 votes (absentees, etc.). Only about 2000 PA voters were exit polled. The MoE is exceedingly low. So how could Kerry exceed his 51.1% share of the first 5643k votes by 7.5% in the final 127k? Here’s why: The final 127k votes came in days after the election ended. The fraud spigot was turned off by then.

But PA was not alone; the MoE was also exceeded in 28 other states. Move along, nothing to see. In 2000, Gore won PA by 51–46. Remember that Nader took votes away from Gore, so Al would have won by more than 5% if Nader had not run. But those returning Nader voters broke for Kerry by better than 3–1, so how did Kerry do worse than Gore in PA?

2004 Pennsylvania Vote % Share  
 
                             Kerry   Bush
 
       Recorded Vote Count   50.9    48.4 

       Exit Poll method 
       WPE                   55.3    44.0   unadjusted
       Best GEO              56.9    43.1   
       Composite             54.2    45.7   
          
 
       Timeline     
       Recorded             Votes    Kerry % 
       Initial               5643    51.1    
       Late                   127    58.6 
         
       Final recorded        5770    51.3          
 
     
 
       
PA Recorded Vote vs. Unadjusted Exit Poll Shares

                Recorded %      Exit Poll %    Discrepancy 
                Dem    Rep      Dem    Rep        WPE   
       2004     50.9   48.4     55.3   44.0       8.8   
  
       2000     50.6   46.4     51.0   46.0       0.8   
  
       1996     49.2   40.0     51.0   38.2       3.6  
  
       1992     45.1   36.1     46.1   35.1       2.0   
  
       1988     48.4   50.7     48.8   50.3       0.8  
  
  
  
   
2004 PA Voting Method  
  
                              Recorded                     Chg from 2000  Pct Change      Bush Change         Voting
 Method    Precincts  Total   KERRY  BUSH   KERRY  BUSH     KERRY  BUSH   KERRY  BUSH     Votes  Margin Inc   Method 
 DRE            2720   1240     944   523   64%    36%      156     95     13%    12%     (60.6)  0.4%  246      DRE
 LEVER          4203   2373    1370  1377   50%    50%      183    244     8%     21%      61     2.5%   49    LEVER
 OPSCAN         1257    562     238   408   37%    63%       27     69     5%     33%      43     3.7%    1   OPSCAN
 PAPER           195     84      33    64   34%    66%        2     12     3%     40%      10     7.1%    0    PAPER
 PUNCH          1030    573     301   385   44%    56%       53     72     9%     29%      11     1.0%    0    PUNCH
  
       TOTAL          9405   4832    2886  2757  51.1%  48.9%     420    493     9%     20%      64     1.9%   296  
  
  
Top 10 Counties
 
 Berks           180    128     72     82    47%    53%      16     15     28%    22%     ( 0.7) -2.0%   4       DRE
 Montgomery      405    321    217    172    56%    44%      44     31     25%    22%     (13.1) -1.6%   5       DRE
 Philadelphia   1681    550    525    126    81%    19%      83     26     19%    27%     (56.4)  1.0%   196     DRE
 Allegheny      1309    574    364    268    58%    42%      36     33     11%    14%     ( 2.2)  1.1%   31    Lever
 Bucks           298    261    162    153    51%    49%      30     32     22%    26%       2.3   1.5%   3     Lever
     
 Delaware        406    245    158    117    57%    43%      23     11     18%    10%     (12.5) -3.3%   4     Lever
 Lancaster       225    177     73    144    34%    66%      17     27     30%    23%      10.2  -1.8%   2     Lever
 Westmoreland    306    154     77     99    44%    56%       6     19      8%    23%      13.2   6.8%   0     Lever
 York            159    143     64    115    36%    64%      12     27     22%    31%      15.5   3.8%   0     Lever
 Chester         220    186    109    119    48%    52%      27     19     33%    19%     ( 7.5) -5.1%   1     Punch
                                                                                                   
 
   
Pennsylvania 2004 Election Calculator
  
            2000 Recorded                        2004 Recorded    
       Gore   Bush   Other  Total         Kerry  Bush   Other  Total    
       2.485  2.281  0.120  4.886         2.938  2.793  0.034  5.765        
              50.9%  46.7%  2.5%                 51.0%  48.4%  0.6%           
 
             Uncounted                            Uncounted  
       0.193  0.057  0.008  0.257         0.134  0.045  0.000  0.178        
       75%    22%    3%     5.0%          75%    25%    0%     3.00%        
                                                                         
  
                   2004 Calculated True Vote                         
                    Kerry    Bush     Other                           
       Cast         3.281    2.630    0.033                           
       Share        55.20%   44.25%   0.55%                           
  
       Exit Poll    55.3%    44.0%    0.7%                             
       Switched      0.209   -0.208  -0.001                           
       Sw. Rate      6.4%    -7.9%   -4.2%                            
  
  
    Assumptions  
  
       Vote Share    12:22am  Final 
       Kerry  Est.    NEP      NEP 
       DNV    59%     57%      54%     
       Gore   92%     91%      90%     
       Bush   10%     10%       9%     
       Nader  66%     64%      71%     

       Uncounted Votes             
               Pct    Cast  Unctd        
       2004   3.00%  5.943  0.178    
       2000   5.00%  4.927  0.246    
                                      
  
       2004   Share   2000   Share
       Kerry  75%     Gore   75%               
       Bush   25%     Bush   22%   
       Other  0%      Nader  3%    
 
 
       2000 Voter Mortality             
       Total Voters  1.22%                  
       Gore share    50%            
 
                                  
       2000 Voter Turnout in 2004       
       Gore   95%                 
       Bush   95%                 
       Nader  95%  
  
                                           
       2000 Adjusted                       
       Voted  Rec    Unctd  Cast  Deaths  Alive    
       Gore   2.49   0.18   2.67   0.13   2.54     
       Bush   2.28   0.05   2.34   0.12   2.22     
       Nader  0.12   0.01   0.13   0.01   0.12     
                                            
       Total  4.89   0.26   5.14   0.25   4.88     
  
 
  
     2004 Calculated PA True Vote    
       Voted  Turnout Voted  Weight   Kerry   Bush    Other   
       DNV    DNV      1.31   22.0%    59%     40%     1%      
       Gore   95%      2.42   40.7%    92%      8%     0%      
       Bush   95%      2.11   35.4%    10%     90%     0%      
       Nader  95%      0.12    1.9%    66%     17%     17%     
                                                            
       Total  4.64     5.94   100%    55.20%  44.25%  0.55%     
                              5.94     3.28    2.63   0.03    

[tritsofme]

1. More TIA spam?

I hope the mods take a stand soon and move all the vote fraud nuttery back to its home.

[tiptoe]

3. Brad Friedman, VerifiedVoting.org, Michael Collins, Mitofsky, E-vote hacking...nt

[OnTheOtherHand]

16. not very fair to VerifiedVoting.org

They know better than to post TIA's dreck. (Does he really think that Kerry won Pennsylvania by 11 points? Based on what? Anything other than blind faith in exit polls? (Oh, a vague belief that "the final 127,000 votes" are somehow representative of the state.)

Do you really see no distinction between discussing machine vulnerabilities and hawking bunk? Or do you just think the times demand uncritical repetition?

ETA: But as for Brad Friedman, author of "The Staggeringly Impossible Results of Ohio's '05 Election," he fits in pretty well.

[tiptoe]

6. Mark Crispin Miller, too -- "Get psychologically prepared for another election theft"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5604345&mesg_id=5604345

[bleever]

13. Which home?

[Cosmocat]

18. Look ...

I live in Pa, and for the life of me I don't see how they can't work it out to have verifiable paper trails for the electonric machines ...

BUT ... In 2006, Rick Santorum got SMOKED by Bob Casey ... If there was any power hungry scumbag with the weight to have an election stolen this way, it would have been Santorum ... Make no mistake, had he won his reelection, Santorum very well would be the Rs presidential candidate right now ...

Same cycle, three of the four very tightest races in very competitive red disctricts congressional disctricts flipped over to democratic challengers ...

[patrice]

2. Run into many gate-keepers on this issue, do ya'? nt

[tiptoe]

5. I don't know if I'd call them "gatekeepers". ..more like DLC/Penn/Rove types nt

[patrice]

7. I've run into a few, hither, thither, and yon.

Hang in there. It's a matter of timing. Once we get passed this GE, one would think that Counting the Vote would be a good organizing issue.

[barack the house]

4. I hear you can requesst provisional ballots on the day if needed. More folks monitor now.

[patrice]

8. I've heard they usually just throw those away,

depending upon the margins. They don't usually need them to decide a count, so they just pitch them.

[tiptoe]

12. They for sure throw 'em away in NY.

Bill Bored once reported he's unaware how many get counted in NY.

[OnTheOtherHand]

17. well, which one is it?

They "for sure throw 'em away"? Or Bill Bored was once unaware how many get counted?

Both could be true, of course, but the latter doesn't support the former.

Table 2: Number and Percentage of Provisional Ballots Election
Officials Reported Cast and Counted in the November 2004 Election in 14
Jurisdictions:

(snip)

Jurisdiction: New York City, NY;
Number of provisional ballots: Cast: 140,779;
Number of provisional ballots: Counted: 77,804;
Percent of provisional ballots counted: 55%.

Jurisdiction: Rensselaer County, NY;
Number of provisional ballots: Cast: 1,914;
Number of provisional ballots: Counted: 972;
Percent of provisional ballots counted: 51%.

(snip)

Source: GAO survey of election officials representing 14 selected
jurisdictions.

http://www.gao.gov/htext/d05997.html

The state didn't collect totals, which is presumably why Bill Bored didn't know the totals.

The good people of New York do not need your help in disenfranchising us, thank you very much. :banghead:

[Kurovski]

9. Kick. (nt)

[ElsewheresDaughter]

10. TIA/ ES&S/ Chuckie Hagel who is Obama's bestest rethuglican friend...Chuckie counts the votes

[Inuca]

19. Silly n/t

[Tribetime]

11. I remember going thru that nightmare 4yrs ago K&R

[Kurovski]

14. Kick. (nt)

[Wilms]

15. .

[Freddie Stubbs]

20. Keep in mind that this 'info' is from a tombstoned DUer

The mods had their reasons.

[BadgerLaw2010]

21. Agreed. Getting sick of all the sock puppets.

[cyberpj]

22. KICK THIS UP. She wins the big states because they're rigged. nt