Federal Review Composite Poll (6-29-04): Bush 271, Kerry 267

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

BUSH LEADS (FOR NOW)
Bush 50.1% - 271| Kerry 47.7% - 267
June 29, 2004

You're right. We just posted our last update on Friday (but the analysis only included numbers through Monday the 22nd). Last week we asked if a trend was forming in favor of Bush. Well, he maintains his lead in the Composite poll, actually adding another 1 point to it. But, he lost a little ground in the Electoral College as Ohio (20 EV) switched to Kerry, and Wisconsin (10 EV) switched to Bush.

This week's results include the results of 11 polls in 8 states, most notably showing Bush up 10 or down 1 in Florida, up 5 or down 1 in Pennsylvania, and up 4 or down 6 in Ohio. Rather disparate results, but that's why we have this impartial analysis to help make sense of things.

Before we get to this week's polling data, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the polling data we have seen since March of this year to see who is more Bush favorable and who is most Kerry favorable. So, I compared the results of each polling organization to the mean results for all polling organization for each particular week. I then averaged each pollster's results to see how far off each pollster is from the average values of contemporary polls.

The most pro Kerry poll is CBS, and the most pro-Bush is Investor's Business Daily / TIPP, but the disparities are minor. On average, CBS is 2 points more favorable for Kerry. Thus, if the average of all polls for a week shows a Bush lead of 3, then CBS is likely to show a Bush lead of only 1. Investor's Business Daily has been 2 points more favorable to Bush on average. In the below list, I have not included results for Harris (which showed a 10 point lead for Bush just last week) because I only have 2 Harris polls included so far. Similarly, I have not included LA Times (2 polls), Quinnipiac (2 polls), AP/Ipsos (1 poll) or NBC (1 poll).

[LoZoccolo]

1. electoral-vote.com shows similar results

http://www.electoral-vote.com

I've seen a poll where Nader spoils in Wisconsin, and it looks like he may be doing that in New Mexico as well, though I don't know the actual results.

[phillybri]

2. My gut tells me Nader will drop out at some point...

Even with him in, I can't imagine Kerry losing Wisconsin...

[Massacure]

3. The green party nominee is automatically on Wisconsin

So now he won't be getting on here without a little bit of work. However he has 21 other states and DC that he has to get back on.

[yellowcanine]

4. Well, this is out of date as of this morning, as Florida is now a dead

heat and actually Kerry leads if Nader is removed. Also, there is no way Wisconsin is going to stay in the Bush column. West Virginia is at best a lean for Bush. I don't know where he gets a Bush advantage there. Oregon and New Mexico? I think they both will be in the Kerry column in November.

[cletusvandamme]

7. Bush is definitely up now...

Bush is definitely up and the soft coverage of the "transfer of sovereignty" is going to give him another small boost. Luckily, there's still plenty of time to turn things around.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

5. Even if Nader drops out

I doubt it will help us much. Think about it: if after losing the Green nomination a person still prefers Nader to Kerry, than means even without Ralph they are going to prefer to go on a 24 hour drunk on election day instead of vote for Kerry.

The roller coaster has only just started. F/911 will give Kerry a little goose, then the convention will give him another goose, then the GOP convention will give Bush a relatively large goose (they do the Leni Reifenstahl impression better than we do -- it sucks, but it's true).

I think that on 11/1 it's going to be 50/50 in PV and EV. Get people registered and involved and we'll win. Otherwise, we'll lose. Pretty simple.

[phillybri]

6. Good take, thanks...

:kick: