Two new polls from ARG and Zogby show PA breaking for Clinton-landslide?

[Tropics_Dude83]

It's 53-38 Clinton over Obama in Zogby's 1 day sample from today in PA.

Http://www.realclearpolitics.com under Pennsylvania polling has the details.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/NewsmaxPADay5N...

And ARG at http://www.americanresearchgroup.com has the race at 54-41 Clinton.

Senator Clinton is not only headed toward a win in PA. She's headed towards a win that will change the dynamics of the race and noticeably eat into Senator Obama's popular vote and elected delegate lead.

Note the ARG numbers that 32% of respondents will never vote for Obama in the primary.

It's hillarious; all the pundits said that Obama was inevitable as the democratic nominee. They are wrong again. PA is about to change everything.

[DJ13]

1. ..........

:boring:

[The Doctor.]

60. The OP is LYING. The Newsmax/Zogby poll from TODAY says Clinton 46%, Obama 43%

And that's a loss of 2 points for Hillary in just 24 hours.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1485

What the fuck is wrong with these people?

[PBS Poll-435]

70. That data is from 4-18/4-19.

Tomorrow's release has data from 4-19/4-20. It was posted on RCP earlier.

[The Doctor.]

73. I'm afraid that's simply not credible.

From 47% on Thursday, to 47% on Friday, to 46% on Saturday, to 53% today?

Sorry, but that just doesn't happen. What happened between Saturday and today to give Clinton a 14 point swing?

We'll take a look at the site tomorrow, if they post a 14 point swing in 24 hours with no viable explanation, then it's apparent something fishy is going on.

[anigbrowl]

75. How could data from 4/21 affect a poll released on 4/20 (today)?

Not very logical.

[PBS Poll-435]

77. Edited & Fixed

[still_one]

117. I don't know about that, but I do know that weekend polls have not been reliable this time

and zogby hasn't done too well himself

[JeanGrey]

101. The first two links don't even work. LOL

[anonymous171]

2. Even if she wins PA, Obama will nuke the shit out of her w/ negative ad buys.

[meow mix]

3. what happened to your surge?

nice try

[Botany]

4. If She wins by 20 points she will pick up 5 delegates.

It is over.

[hell-bent]

67. Ha,ha,ha,

20 point spread with 3 million votes cast in the Democratic race means a 600,000 plurality for Clinton? Ha,ha,ha,.. Add that to the 300,000 plurality in Florida and Hillary is leading by 200,000 popular votes, and you expect the SDs to go for BO? What is in that special Kool-Aid?

[ORDem]

91. Yeah! "noticeably eat into Senator Obama's popular vote and elected delegate lead" LOL!

PA is her last gasp. I wish her well, and if she's smart she'll go out on a high note (well, as high as she can get anyway). :bounce:

[Radical Activist]

5. No, the pundits said Hillary was inevitable for ever a year.

I've never heard the media push Barack as inevitable. They do accurately point out that he's winning.

[Adelante]

6. Hardly a landslide, but a win if it happens nt

[grantcart]

Zogby and ARG thank god - that's great news for Obama

When Zogby tanked in CA why was he laughed at by Clinton but now its going to be a landslide?

[SoCalDem]

25. Arg.. Polly wanna poll

[my3boyz]

7. Chuck Todd said that even if she wins 60/40 she will probably only net NINE delegates! nt

[ORDem]

92. But, ... but, ... don't you get it? The whole "dynamic" will change!! LOL! The kool-aid's over there

help yourself. :rofl:

[CakeGrrl]

8. It all gets wiped out in NC regardless. OR, MT, SD...maybe IN and the deal is sealed.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Your own ARG link defies your post.

Clinton was up 20 in PA last week and now she's up 13. How is that "breaking" toward Clinton? Or do you not know basic mathematics?

If you're up 20 one week and then 13 the next, that's a net loss of 7 points.

[flpoljunkie]

18. The Zogby link also shows a close race today--46% Clinton to 43% Obama with 4.1 MOE.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1485

[Frank Booth]

86. Your problem is you think the original poster actually cares. This is the same guy

who claimed to be an Obama supporter for weeks, but would only start threads like "I love Obama, but the fact that his pastor hates white people really worries me."

He's AGirl's alter ego. I actually thought AGirl was more entertaining than this guy, but she got booted.

[PM7nj]

10. Zogby knows shit.

Yesterday his one day samaple had Obama up by 2.

[Stinky The Clown]

11. Even if she wins PA by 40 points, she will STILL trail by 100 delegates.

There isn't a landslide big enough for her to actually change anything.

In actual fact, even if she wins by 100 to 0, she is STILL short of enough delegates to beat him.

[hell-bent]

71. You can't really be serious.

If she won by 40 points it might mean a 1,200,000 plurality in Pennsylvania! Do you really think the SDs are that stupid and will vote for BO? Compare that to the 2,000 vote plurality in Wyoming giving the victory to BO? What are you smoking or drinking?

[Stinky The Clown]

87. Here ... play the game yourself

See what happens to her if she wins 100 to zero.

http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

[FrenchieCat]

12. I looked at the details, and I don't find what you find.....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html#polls


and in terms of ARG, he has improved by 3 points since the last polling.

What's Hillarious is that you pick the outlier polls, and hang your hat on them. That's what's hillarious.

[thoughtcrime1984]

13. Gleefully says the person who has bounced back and forth between the candidates

like a defective superball.

[Tarheel_Dem]

21. my thoughts exactly. i never trusted this guy, and he has not failed

to disappoint. i get an "icky" feeling just clicking on his posts, whether they're pro Obama, or pro Clinton. A "defective superball" indeed.

[anonymous171]

26. Really? I always thought they were funny.

He was an Obama supporter but went apeshit after Obama took punches. One of those "the sky is falling" types.

[Name removed]

33. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Yael]

42. I think you are being charitable...

[Leopolds Ghost]

135. No, he was a concern troll from the very beginning. Very cynical and disturbing

That creeps are willing to play secret agent and lie about their interests online
(or worse, do it for free to get some kind of thrill out of baiting people.)

[Dbdmjs1022]

14. So what? Clinton's supposed to win PA. How does that change the dynamic?

If Clinton's gonna change the dynamic she needs to win an Obama stronghold like NC. Winning PA, where she's heavily favored, doesn't do much.

[newmajority]

15. Landslide? Rendell's not that good at election theft.

Considering Hillary was once favored by 30 points, it's a net loss for her even if she wins by single digits.

And if that state is so fucking racist (Rendell's explanation, not mine) that she actually could get a wide margin of victory, then it would be time to make the final decision where all the nuclear waste gets dumped. And I ain't talking Yucca Mountain.

[AllentownJake]

31. Dump it in the west and the center

We are nice people on the east side :-)

Seriously we are nice througout the state and PA has voted democratic since 1992. I'm sure there are other states that would much better fit the profile for dumping waste.

[Leopolds Ghost]

136. You want to turn anti-Obama mountain men into slow mutants?

I ain't willing to take that chance.

[grantcart]

16. Gee I am confused Zogby/Newsmax new poll - Obama 43 and Clinton46 in PA

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1485

UTICA, New York—New York's Hillary Clinton remains barely ahead of rival Barack Obama of Illinois leading up to Tuesday's presidential primary in Pennsylvania, a new Newsmax/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.

Her advantage is a statistically insignificant three points, 46% to 43%, over Obama, as support in the race ebbs and flows within a tight margin—she led by five points yesterday. The two-day tracking survey, which was conducted April 18-19, 2008, included 11% who were either undecided or supported someone else.

The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby's on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 607 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The daily tracking in the Keystone state will continue through Monday evening, with the final release issued early on Election Day.

[Capn Sunshine]

17. problem with the polling model:

A) it was designed by Mark Penn, and purposely ignores new registrants and party members less than a year.

B) it uses land-line calling only. No cell phones.

Now where is Obama strongest? 18-34s, who don't have land lines. And new registrations, who don't get surveyed, because the voter roll is two years old.

There's a reason the Hillary campaign has shifted the goalposts yet again to claim solid victory at under 10% margin.

Last month, it was pretty much agreed she had to win by double digits to stay alive.
They forgot all about that premise.

[ClassWarrior]

19. Bah, she'll probably win by 20. That's why they've been furiously trying...

...to lower the public's expectations. Saying it'll be under 10.

:eyes:

These numbers change nothing.

NGU.

[Petey Wheatie]

20. Putting religion and racism in the same category destroyed Obama's chances in 08. Go Hill!

[anonymous171]

23. lol He never called anyone a racist. Unlike Ferraro.

[stillcool]

29. But, but...what about this?

December 10, 2007
Third Clinton Volunteer Knew Of Smear E-Mail
A third volunteer for Hillary Clinton's campaign was aware of a propaganda e-mail alleging that Barack Obama is a Muslim who plans on "destroying the U.S. from the inside out."
"Let us all remain alert concerning Obama's expected presidential Candidacy," the email reads. "Please forward to everyone you know. The Muslims have said they Plan on destroying the U.S. from the inside out, what better way to start than at The highest level."


Two Clinton volunteers, Linda Olson and Judy Rose, have already been asked to resign from the campaign for their roles in forwarding the e-mail. The AP reported yesterday that Olson, a volunteer coordinator in Iowa County, sent a version of the e-mail to 11 people, including Ben Young, a regional field director for Chris Dodd's campaign. Young passed it on to the AP.
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2007/12/third_clinton_v.html

Kerrey Apologizes to Obama Over Remark
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=4031436
Kerrey's mention of Obama's middle name and his Muslim roots raised eyebrows because they are also used as part of a smear campaign on the Internet that falsely suggests Obama is a Muslim who wants to bring jihad to the United States. Obama is a Christian.

The Clinton campaign has already fired two volunteer county coordinators in Iowa for forwarding hoax e-mails with the debunked claim. Last week, a national Clinton campaign co-chairman resigned for raising questions about whether Obama's teenage drug use could be used against him, so Kerrey's comments raised questions about whether the Clinton campaign might be using another high-profile surrogate to smear Obama.

Hillary: Sorry for Any Offense Campaign (Bill) Has Caused
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FB65wJ6Rcfs

Bill Clinton Asks for a Second Chance
By Liz Halloran
Posted February 11, 2008

The morning after his wife, Hillary, was routed in three state contests by Sen. Barack Obama in their dead-heat battle for the Democratic nomination, former President Bill Clinton made his case for her before a packed Sunday service at one of the largest black churches in Washington, D.C.
But first he offered an apology of sorts for racially tinged comments he made about Obama and his candidacy that have triggered a backlash in the black community and among many other Democrats.

Clinton invoked his "worship of a God of second chances" in pronouncing himself glad to be at the Temple of Praise, which claims nearly 15,000 members. His invocation of second chances echoed comments he made early last week at black churches in California, where he campaigned for his wife before that state's Super Tuesday primary, which she won.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/campaign-2008/2008/02/11/bill-clinton-asks-for-a-second-chance.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/02/bill-clinton-to-apologize_n_84573.html
Bill Clinton To Apologize At LA Black Churches
Once again, Bill Clinton is ready to repent.

On Sunday the former president is scheduled to visit black churches in South Central Los Angeles, where he's expected to offer a mea culpa to those who "dearly loved him" when he was their president, Rep. Diane Watson (D-Calif.) says.
Watson, a member of the Congressional Black Caucus who has endorsed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), tells us she'll usher the former president to more than half a dozen churches in her district where she says he needs to "renew his relationship" with congregants who were turned off by his racially tinged
comments in the days leading up to and following the South Carolina primary. (Such as when Clinton compared Sen. Barack Obama's landslide victory to Jesse Jackson's wins in 1984 and 1988.)

Source: Newsday
Posted on Sunday, December 16, 2007 at 12:04 pm
http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?id=30629&cat=5
Barack Obama Accepts Apology From Hillary Clinton
Washington D.C. 12/15/2007 09:17 AM GMT (FINDITT)

Hillary Clinton went straight to Barack Obama with an apology following a staffer's remarks about any skeletons that may be lurking in Obama's closet, pointing out that she had accepted the staffer's resignation over the disparaging remarks. Obama accepted her at her word, according to his campaign staff, and is moving on without letting it interrupt his campaign plans.

Obama is currently leading the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the two early primary states often considered key to the process, according to numbers at usaelectionpolls.com, but on a national level Clinton still holds a huge lead. The most recently posted poll results show Obama with 31 percent of the probable voters in New Hampshire backing him with 29 percent showing support for Clinton.

Clinton Camp Pushes O-Bomber Links: Ignores Her Own Radical Ties
By: Justin Rood

ABC News - The Hillary Clinton campaign pushed to reporters today stories about Barack Obama and his ties to former members of a radical domestic terrorist group -- but did not note that as president, Clinton's husband pardoned more than a dozen convicted violent radicals, including a member of the same group mentioned in the Obama stories.

"Wonder what the Republicans will do with this issue," mused Clinton spokesman Phil Singer in one e-mail to the media, containing a New York Sun article reporting a $200 contribution from William Ayers, a founding member of the 1970s group Weather Underground, to Obama in 2001.

In a separate e-mail, Singer forwarded an article from the Politico newspaper reporting on a 1995 event at a private home that brought Obama together with Ayers and Bernardine Dohrn, another member of the radical group.

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/13/clinton.obama/index.html
Clinton adviser steps down after drug use comments
Earlier Thursday, Clinton personally apologized to rival Obama for Shaheen's remarks.
Obama accepted her apology, according to David Axelrod, the top political strategist for the Obama campaign.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-01-17-johnson-apology_N.htm?csp=34

COMPTON, Calif. (AP) — Hillary Rodham Clinton and her campaign tried to mend ties to black voters Thursday when a key supporter apologized to her chief rival, Barack Obama, for comments that hinted at Obama's drug use as a teenager. The candidate herself, meanwhile, praised the Rev. Martin Luther King and promised to assist with the rebirth of this troubled, largely black city.
------------------

Johnson's comments and remarks by both Clintons before the New Hampshire primary last week had alarmed several black leaders and drew a rebuke from Obama and his top aides.

It began when Hillary Clinton gave an interview in which she seemed to discount King's role in the civil rights movement. Later, former President Clinton cast aspects of Obama's candidacy as a "fairy tale."

Clinton Surrogate Compares Obama Ad to Nazi March
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?pid=278988
Fri Feb 1, 2:23 PM ET
The Nation -- On a media conference call organized by the Hillary Clinton campaign today, Clinton surrogate Len Nichols compared an Obama health care ad to Nazis.
----------
Accusing political opponents of Nazism is an outrageous smear. Raising the specter of a Nazi march in response to a health care mailer that evokes the insurance industry is so absurd, it would be hard to take the attack seriously, were it not launched from a high profile national campaign conference call in this crucial stretch of the presidential race. And political observers know, of course, that the Clinton Campaign regularly arranges opportunities for surrogates to launch these kind of smears, which are later followed up with apologies. (See: Bob Johnson, Bill Shaheen, Bob Kerrey, and Francine Torge, to name the most recent offenders.) For his part, Nichols did not immediately return a call requesting further comment.
-------------------------
Len Nichols, Director of New America's Health Policy Program, stated, "For nearly 17 years I have worked tirelessly to reform our nation's struggling health system. Today my passion overwhelmed me. I chose an analogy that was wholly inappropriate. I am deeply sorry for any offense that my unfortunate comments may have caused.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk1k0nUWEQg

[indimuse]

132. Obama's List of Demonstrable Lies: 31 and growing!!!

Obama's List of Demonstrable Lies: 31 and growing

Obama says he's consistently opposed NAFTA; in October 2007 he supported expansion to Peru

Obama claims he's above dirty political tricks; Clinton proves he lies

Obama claims his "bitter" remarks were mangled; then repeats attacks on guns religion and angry people

Obama tells verifiable lie #28: This time its about THAT flag

Obama says he did no favors for Rezko;untrue; he lobbied for him

Changes story repeatedly re Rezko's help in buying mansion

Obama claims he never supported a ban on handguns; he has twice

Obama claims he stays at UCC as his Pastor has acknowledged his comments were inappropriate;The Pastor never made this statement

Tells supporters his campaign is beholden to "only the people" as unlike McCain/Clinton he does not take lobbyist /PAC money; LIES!

Claims his campaign never called Canada to say Obama not truthful about wanting to leave NAFTA; smoking gun memo proves he lied

Mrs Obama admits she's never been proud of America; Video disproves Sen. Obama's later claim she was misquoted

Claimed if elected to US Senate he would not run for President in his first term

Claimed famous in Illinois for not letting lobbyists even buy him lunch; but took money from teachers, trial lawyers, hospital admins

Claims his parents met at Selma civil rights march; Washington Post noted it occurred 4 yrs after Obama's birth

Obama claims he courageously opposed the war in 2002 during his US Senate campaign; He did not announce his senate bid until 2003

Claims he passes tough Nuclear Law; NYT uncovers he took Nuclear Industry pay-off and watered down the bill

Claimed he didn't know Rezko was corrupt when did a real estate deal with him; Chicago papers prove he lied
Claims does not accept money from Big Oil: Real Clear Politics proves he lied

Denies using his Hopefund PAC to influence endorsers; but the Washington Post reviewed the record and disagreed

Claims his State Chair is not a drug company lobbyist; Time magazine cries Bullshit
Lies about how much he received in campaign funds from Rezko; forced to significantly increase the amount twice
Claims he did not fill out the 1996 candidate questionaire; Politico proves he lied

Took credit for achievement of others in Chicago; resume puffing exposed by LA Times
Claims he kept no State Senate records; now he changes his story

Denies the doubling of his wife's salary was due to his becoming US Senator; forgets he earmarked hospital $1million

Denied meeting Saddam bagman Auchi; now admits he was at his dinner but does not remember talking to him

Denies using his church for politics: IRS disagree

Claims he was unaware of Pastor Wrights 911 comments: NYT proves he lied

Claims his father was a goat-herd; actually he was a man of privilige

Claims not an active muslim as child; Indonesian paper proves he lied

Claims father linked to Kennedys; Washington Post proves he lied

[TML]

22. And Hillary lost her lead in Gallup

You now have a two-point deficit. :rofl:

[SoCalDem]

126. She LOST the primary race in Wisconsin..TWO MONTHS AGO

:grr:

[slinkerwink]

24. I knew it!

[stillcool]

27. I've read the responses so..

I'm not going to look at the polls showing things other than what you are saying. But as far as "inevitable" First..the Clinton Campaign put the goal post at the 20+ percentage line in PA.
Second...there is this for "Inevitability"

http://www.nationalledger.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi?archive=17&num=16150

HILL TROUNCING RIVALS IN N.H. & OHIO
By IAN BISHOP
January 31, 2007 -- WASHINGTON - Hillary Rodham Clinton has blown past her primary rivals in the 2008 kickoff state of New Hampshire, and bests the field of White House hopefuls in the swing state of Ohio, new polls show.

Clinton's poll bounce comes on the heels of her announcement that she's running, and her much-publicized first campaign foray into Iowa this past weekend.

She had enjoyed a high-tech campaign rollout, featuring a video announcement of her candidacy and three nights of Web chats with supporters.

"We had a great first week and we hope it is a sign of things to come," campaign spokesman Phil Singer told The Post yesterday.

Clinton has jumped out to a 15-point lead in New Hampshire over her leading rival, Barack Obama, 40 percent to 25 percent, the new Survey USA poll shows. Former Sen. John Edwards stands at 23 percent.

Hillary Clinton: Is the Democratic Nomination All Hers?
She doesn’t have the nomination prize wrapped up just yet, but the paper and ribbon are handy.

By Richard Sammon, Senior Associate Editor, The Kiplinger Letter
October 22, 2007
http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/forecast/archive/Hillary_Clinton_Is_Democratic_Nomination_Hers_071022.html

Hillary Clinton’s lead over her Democratic rivals is starting to look formidable. The N.Y. senator is overshadowing the other presidential hopefuls, pulling way ahead in the polls, in fundraising and in organization.

The media are starting to refer to her as the presumptive nominee, a characterization that must make the other candidates feel frustrated.

CLINTON HAS 33-POINT LEAD
By GEOFF EARLE
October 4, 2007 -- WASHINGTON - Hillary Rodham Clinton has jumped to an astounding 33-point lead over Barack Obama, topping her main rival among every major slice of the electorate and widening a dominating advantage she has held all summer.

Clinton got support from a full majority for the first time in any national survey about the Democratic presidential field. She is backed by 53 percent in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll.

Obama follows far behind, with 20 percent, and John Edwards has 13 percent.

"I think it's pretty well done, don't you? All over but the voting," said Rep. Tom Petri (D-Wis.), when asked about the poll
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10042007/news/nationalnews/clinton_has_33_point_lead.htm

May 8th, 2007 at 13:15:24

Poll: Clinton pulls ahead of Obama
http://rawstory.com/comments/31343.html
Agence France-Presse

Hillary Clinton has taken a 15 percentage-point lead over fellow US Senator Barack Obama in the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, according to poll results published Tuesday...

October 3, 2007, 1:45 pm

By Dalia Sussman

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton far outpaces her main Democratic rivals to handle a range of issues, and she is considered the strongest leader and the most electable – forces that have helped her widen her lead in the race for the Democratic nomination, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Mrs. Clinton has anywhere from a 30-point lead to a 51-point lead over Senator Barack Obama to handle health care, the economy, the war in Iraq and the campaign against terrorism, the poll found.

Poll: Hillary Ahead In South Carolina
By Eric Kleefeld - August 22, 2007, 10:35AM
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2007/08/poll_hillary_ahead_in_south_carolina.php
New polling from Rasmussen has Hillary Clinton beating Barack Obama in the South Carolina primary, with 38% for Hillary against 30% for Obama, with John Edwards at a distant third with 13%. Hillary and Obama are even among black voters, a demographic in which Obama needs a strong majority in order to win. Among whites, Hillary leads with Edwards in second, and Obama far behind.

Iowa Poll Shows Clinton Ahead By 29 Percent
http://wap.nbc5.com/detail.jsp?key=251931&rc=ln_ne
10/08/2007 -- There's a new poll out in the all important state of Iowa that shows presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton ahead by 29 percent, with John Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama not far behind.

Clinton leaving Obama in the dust in latest state poll
Friday, August 17, 2007

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2007/08/17/MNG7RJV1E1.DTL&type=politics
New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, bolstered by an aggressive campaign organization in California, has amassed a whopping 30-point lead over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama - and enjoys more support among likely voters in the state Democratic primary than all of her Democratic presidential rivals combined, a Field Poll released today shows.

[otohara]

30. Memory Lane

always good to take a look back and remember what might have been.

[SoCalDem]

35. I love these threads.. reminds me of

click

draws them all to one place for easy "identification & relocation"
:rofl:

[mwb970]

28. You certainly are confident.

Are you a mentalist of some kind?

[Garbo 2004]

51. Yeah he was just as confident when he declared that Edwards was going to endorse Clinton

on a Monday weeks ago based on a blog post reporting a rumor mentioned by two anon people who sourced a "woman in the hall" at the CA Dem convention. He was absolutely certain then too.

[anonymous171]

53. lol I remember that post.

:rofl:

[mwb970]

57. Was this the same person who said last year...

that he (she?) would bet "any amount of money" that the nominees would be Rudy and Hillary? (This was in response to my post where I said I didn't think either of them would win the nomination.)

[Drunken Irishman]

32. I can't wait to see what Tropics_Dude83 does when Clinton underperforms.

I don't know how many times I've banged my head reading his meltdowns over Obama after a bit of bad news. He's written Obama's obituary more times than I can count and he'll do the exact same thing when Clinton underperforms his wild and out there expectations.

So this is a warning for ya', Hillary supporters, if Clinton doesn't win PA by 53-38, Tropics will throw her campaign under the bus and write a long diatribe about how it's over. Enjoy. :)

[anonymous171]

34. He'll probably freak out and become an Obama supporter again.

Just like last time.

[Drunken Irishman]

36. He'll do the trifecta: Switch to McCain.

[Tarheel_Dem]

38. LMAO.....

The poster does indeed have some "issues", I'm just not so sure that he's an Obama or Clinton supporter. Either he's just a "bandwagon" sort of guy, and doesn't understand the up & down nature of politics, or he's not who he purports to be.

[AllentownJake]

37. I've said this

About both polls. The ones for Obama and against him

No one can predict what will happen on Tuesday. We haven't seen an election like this since 1980 in our state.

[woolldog]

39. tropics_dude83

[IDemo]

40. New poll from AAARRR shows pirates support Clinton n/t

[bowens43]

41. Hate to break it to you but it was hillary was inevitable and she lost.

Obama is the nominee. All that's left is some crying by hillary and her supporters.

[hell-bent]

68. Is that message that you

picked up on your tinfoil hat?

[KaryninMiami]

43. That's odd- Real Clear Politics shows very different Zogby numbers-

Not only for today (4/20) but also for tomorrow. I don't think the spread is going to be all that wide- not by the time we get to the 22nd.

But realy it's the EXIT POLLS taken on the 22nd that we'll need to be closely watching- if those winde up being too far from the actual results, given that most of PA votes on DREs, we will need to demand a serious investigation.

Election 2008 Latest Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html


Monday, April 21
Race Poll Results Spread
Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Zogby: Clinton 48, Obama 42 Clinton +6

Sunday, April 20
Race Poll Results Spread
Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Zogby: Clinton 46, Obama 43 Clinton +3
Democratic Presidential Nomination Gallup Tracking Obama 47, Clinton 45 Obama +2
Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Mason-Dixon Clinton 48, Obama 43 Clinton +5
Pennsylvania Democratic Primary ARG* Clinton 54, Obama 41 Clinton +13
Democratic Presidential Nomination Rasmussen Tracking Obama 46, Clinton 42 Obama +4

Here's more (same site):
Pennsylvania Democratic Primary
Tuesday, April 22 | Delegates at Stake: 188

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Spread
RCP Average 04/10 - 04/20 - 47.7 42.1 Clinton +5.6
Zogby 04/19 - 04/20 602 LV 48 42 Clinton +6.0
Mason-Dixon 04/17 - 04/18 625 LV 48 43 Clinton +5.0
Rasmussen 04/17 - 04/17 730 LV 47 44 Clinton +3.0
PPP (D) 04/14 - 04/15 1095 LV 42 45 Obama +3.0
SurveyUSA 04/12 - 04/14 638 LV 54 40 Clinton +14.0
LA Times/Bloomberg 04/10 - 04/14 623 LV 46 41 Clinton +5.0

[Tropics_Dude83]

46. RCP headline in left hand corner

Zogby Tracking Moves 3pts to HRC

[still_one]

120. Zogby has been not too accurate this year. Also if you look at all the polls

they are all over the place

Clinton has to win by double digits, greater than twenty points to even be viable

[Tropics_Dude83]

44. You all don't understand

First of all, Zogby has a NEW poll out from today.

If you click on the link at realclearpolitics for Zogby in the latest PA polls section of the website, you can find it. In today's sample, she led 53-38. Let's be kind and let's say Obama is at 38 today but he picks up a couple points. He gets 42% on election night. That makes Clinton's percentage around 56, possibly as high as 58. She wins PA 58-42 (16) or 56-44 (12) with landslide majorities among whites, catholics, and working class voters.

Do you have any idea what that will do to the media narrative? The media will say that Wright, bitterness and the debate performance has taken a huge toll. The superdelegates will look at the exit polls and see which constituencies voted for which candidate. This will give them sober second thoughts.

Clinton will have tremendous momentum and ride it to an Indiana win followed by huge KY, WV, and PR victories. Then she launches a huge blitz to seat Florida and Michigan or to hold new elections there. Even Chris Bowers thinks FL/MI will be seated, which makes 2,208 the magic number. She goes into the convention trailing by 50 or 60 pledged delegates. It's a toss-up.

And as far as why I switched support. Yeah, it was the Obama gaffes that caused it but also look at where Hillary beats Obama. She beats him among Reagan democrats, hispanics, women, lower middle class voters, Jews. All core constituencies. She makes Florida a toss-up and is dominating Ohio right now in GE polls according to SUSA. I looked at it and realized Hillary is our best shot. Counting on Obama to win Colorado and/or Virginia along with Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa is risky when you have a candidate that puts Kentucky in play and has a comfortable lead in Ohio as Clinton does per SUSA.

That's why I switched. How is that weird??

[woolldog]

45. Why don't you just post the correct link in your OP?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/NewsmaxPADay5NR%204_21_2008.pdf

[GarbagemanLB]

47. This will not go to Denver undecided. The Democrats will lose in November if that happens.

[BlooInBloo]

54. You'll have to forgive me, I'm a bit slow. You mean a new poll out today like this one?

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/masondixon_clinton_ahead_by_fi.php

"Overall, Clinton leads Obama by a margin of 48-43 percent, with 8 percent still undecided. The telelphone survey of 625 likely Pennsylvania voters was taken April 17-18 and had an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points."

[woolldog]

55. He's talking about the one day polling in PA for Sunday,

which Clinton won 52-38. It might be a trend, might not be. You can't make too much of one day polling. That's why it's a 2 day average. Plus Zogby hasn't been terribly accurate this season.

I suspect Clinton will win by +10, but it won't matter.

[KansasVoter]

63. No where does Zogby show Obama losing 53-38. He is drunk!!!

[GoldieAZ49]

79. It isn't weird, I switched in March

it is almost sacrilegious to the hard core Obama followers.

For me is was Wright.

[NJSecularist]

48. On to ignore you go, Tropics.

You are one of the most disingenious people I ever met. You cherrypick polls to your liking.

[DemGa]

49. Obama's use of character smear is catching up with him

People begin rightly, to see someone whose actions don't comport with his pretty speeches.

[The Doctor.]

62. Where? I'm amazed at how [i]every[/i] request for a quote goes ignored.

[DemGa]

65. Not by me - at least not intentionally

The Obama campaign has broadly smeared Clinton as a liar from the start - the very lowest form of politics.

"People have heard a lot of things that just aren’t true from the mouth of the First Lady, from the mouth of the former president, from the mouth of the campaign," said Robert Gibbs, Obama’s communications director."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/8002.html


Obama campaign memo that smears Clinton as dishonest:

Senator Clinton likes to claim that she’s been vetted. But there is a salient theme emerging that has not been examined at all in this race: Senator Clinton has consistently made political calculations to deliberately mislead the American people and the voters have noticed.

it’s time that Senator Clinton be questioned aggressively about this pattern of misleading voters.

can we really expect that a candidate who is viewed as so much more dishonest than McCain will somehow be able to beat him?

A history of misleading voters

http://thepage.time.com/obama-camp-memo-on-clinton-misl... /


Q. Has she been truthful to voters about what she would do as president?

A. “No.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/27/us/politics/28q-aobam...


"Hillary's idea is that we should force everyone to buy insurance. But this is yet another issue where she is not being straight with the American people.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/20...


http://www.attacktimeline.com /

[The Doctor.]

82. How is calling a 'liar' a 'liar' "smearing" someone for being a 'liar' if it's true?

I'm pretty much done listening to the delusional Clinton people anymore.

[thevoiceofreason]

50. Hey dude, ARG moved net +7 for Obama in one week

Did you notice the ARG poll showed Hillary down 3 and Barack up 4 in one week? I gues it depends on whether rose colored glasses work on numbers and maths?

As for Zogby - embrace it if you like. Remember though, you have to go home with who you brung to the dance.

[still_one]

118. Zogby has done well at all this election. In fact if he says Clinton leads

it gives me some hope for Obama

[Auntie Bush]

52. K & R #5

Off with you! How come Obama supporters don't rec. anything negative about Obama? Isn't it important to know what direction the polls are headed?
Obama supporters are only interested in things if they are pro Obama. They like putting on the blinders....feels better that way. Obama winning... ummmmmm...feels good. Obama not winning...up with the blinders or three monkeys.

[The Doctor.]

56. Hey Everyone... Just for laughs... try clicking on those 'links'. Newsmax sourcing to boot...lol.

Then look at who created the American Research Group;

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3890996

Now where's this Zogby poll?

[woolldog]

58. Here's the link

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/NewsmaxPADay5NR%204_21_2008.pdf

[The Doctor.]

61. I found it... it doesn't read that way on Zogby;

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1485

Isn't that interesing? Know how it happened?

[woolldog]

64. It's Sunday's one day sample.

The Zogby results are 2 day moving averages. I posted a separate thread about this because no one takes Tropics_dude seriously anymore. They think he's just making shit up. lol

[The Doctor.]

74. Right, but going from holding within 2 points to a 14 point swing in 24 hours?

I'm no fool, it's bullshit.

Something amazing would have had to happen to cause that.

[Citizen Kang]

59. Its 420 today...

I know that because you've been smoking some good stuff if you believe what you just wrote.

[Aloha Spirit]

66. If you're right, that could spell trouble in November...

http://www.maptools.org/cgi-bin/owtchart?type=HBar&vals=31!22!10!37&numpts=4&extcolors=0000FF!008080!FF9900!008000&xlabels=It%27s%20a%20bad%20way%3BTold%20you%20once%20I%20won%27t%20tell%20you%20again%3BPut%20away%20your%20make-up%3BI%20know%20my%20mind%20is%20made%20up&w=600&h=500&Title=PA%3A%20Obama%20Supporters%27%20Party%20Loyalty--Would%20you%20vote%20for%20Hillary%20in%20November%3F&XTitle=Would%20you%20vote%20for%20Hill%3F&XTitleColor=&XTitleFont=&YTitle=%25%20of%20respondents%20who%20agree%20with%20statement.&YTitleColor=&YTitleFont=&YMin=1&YMax=50&BarWidth=

[quakerboy]

69. Umm. Checked your link. You apparently dont "read numbers good"

ARG is the only one that has her breaking 50. Sorry.

Even if it was true, she needs to break 58% to do it, by my math. 53 won't cut it. And that becomes even more key when you consider NC, OR, etc upcoming.

[woolldog]

72. You're wrong.

She broke 50 in Zogby's Sunday sample--which will be used in his 2 day moving average tracking poll.

[quakerboy]

76. Where is it

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html#polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[A-Schwarzenegger]

78. The 53-38% is only talking about "white and Catholic voters." Here's why:

“A big one-day of polling for Clinton. If a 10-point victory is the
pundit-driven threshold she needs on Tuesday, it looks like she can do it. This does not look like a
one-day anomaly – undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day of polling, and they are
breaking Clinton’s way. As I suggested yesterday, if white and Catholic voters, who still are the
biggest portion of undecideds, actually vote, Clinton will have her double-digit victory. Just today
alone, she polled 53% to Obama’s 38%."

"Undecideds dropped to only 5% in this latest single day polling."

but 53-38 leaves 9% undecided.

The 53-38% is ONLY the one-day "white and Catholic" vote.

[Tropics_Dude83]

81. Oh god-what a horrendous mistake on my part

Thanks A.

You know what. I'm just going to stop posting. What an embarrasing mistake on my end.

Although it's not phrased the way it should be for maximum understanding.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

83. Yes, that paragraph is poorly written by Zogby.

[woolldog]

127. No, Tropics_dude did not make a mistake

YOU are spreading misinformation, A-Schwarzenegger. Tropics_dude is correct.

Zogby's press release later states that Clinton is winning Catholics 63-24, not 53-38. If you try to make the argument that the latter figure refers to white catholics only and the 63-24 figure refers to all catholics, that would (aside from going against what Zogby explictly says AND the math), that would mean that Obama was losing non-white catholics by huge margins. That would be the only way to explain why his numbers with white catholics are better than his number with all catholics.

Think about that for a second. It makes no sense. First, Obama isn't losing non-white catholics by a much larger margin than he is losing white catholics. If anything the opposite is more likely true. Second, even if it is true, there would have to be a fairly large number of non-white Catholics in PA to account for non-white catholics skewing the overall catholic vote so heavily towards Clinton. But there isn't a heavy non-white Catholic population in PA. The hispanic population is small and from the data I've seen split evenly between Obama and Clinton. And the black population is very pro-Obama. Certainly I doubt there are enough anti-Obama black or hispanic Catholics to skew the numbers to that degree.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

128. I think youre right, wool. Apologies.

I think I was so astonished at the 15% difference that I was looking for
an explanation. If the two days were indeed Obama ahead by one (?) and Clinton ahead by 15, it does come out to 6%. My apologies.

Of course this doesnt mean Zogby is right, but as it looks, you & Tropic are right about his stats and what he wrote & I & a number of others were/are wrong.

[adoraz]

89. I just did the math...

and I think thats correct.

try it out, I'm pretty sure it was 53%-38%.

[still_one]

116. Who knows, but I sure wouldn't rely on zogby's record this year

it has been terrible

Give me Harris or even Gallop over zogby this year

but better yet, let's wait and see the actual results. If she doesn't win by greater than 20% it IS over for her

[MadBadger]

80. If you learn how to do math, youd see how woefully wrong you are.

[usregimechange]

84. You have the wrong numbers: "she now leads 48% to 42%, the latest polling shows." -Zogby

[boppers]

85. Less than 62% = FAIL

She needs at least 62% to start making up for her prior losses.

Any less than that, and she'll need to win the rest by *more* than 62%.

[GoesTo11]

88. Comeback Kid!

They said she could never win PA, and now it looks like she will!

Reminds me of Ohio.

[anonymous171]

90. No. She was always going to win PA.

[still_one]

119. Are you nuts, she was always suppossed to win Pennsylvania, and by 20 to 30 points

where have you been.

If she wins by single digits, it is the same as a loss

[alcibiades_mystery]

122. Show me one person who said she could never win PA

Just one.

[GoesTo11]

129. Here's some who will say they said this. (warning: may be unpleasant for you)

April 23: "Amazing upset. Hillary overcomes Obama. This is such a shock, Democrats have to rethink everything."

[GoesTo11]

131. Mod: Please delete my last post - accidentally put in hi-def photo (yecch)

[loveangelic]

93. aren't you the same person who would be SHOCKED, omg SHOCKED

if Edwards didn't endorse Hillary like 3 mondays ago?

lol.

[goldcanyonaz]

94. You're back! Welcome back.

[loveangelic]

95. thank you :)

[thewiseguy]

97. :)

[Clintonista2]

105. Zombie!

[loveangelic]

106. I'd like to say I'm glad you care so much about me to make a thread about me

and were so concerned you took it upon yourself to look at my profile and post a thread about it!!! you must be so...proud?

[Clintonista2]

107. Compared to most Obama supporters, I must admit you're reasonable

Still, even "reasonable" Obama supporters are borderline trolls.

[loveangelic]

108. Oh...is that the reason you made an entire thread celebrating me being gone?

[Clintonista2]

110. Yup, and I'll give you one example of why:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5250345#5251109

[Maddy McCall]

133. AND SHE'S GONE AGAIN.

Bwahahaha....

Some people just can't cope with the tombstone.

[PseudoIntellect]

96. Obama has won 16 landslides. Clinton has won 1. (her home state of Arkansas)

One day of polling isn't a sign of a blowout. RCP averages have her at +6% or less in PA.

If she wins 60/40, she'll net under 40 delegates...she'll still need to make up nearly 130 more pledged delegates to win the PD race. How many more PA-like opportunities will there be for her?

And the 20-point win is impossible right now; she won't make up the delegates.

[JeanGrey]

98. Right.

[JeanGrey]

99. The first two don't even work - the first link leads you to email

the second leads to nothing. ROTFLMAO

[thewiseguy]

100. You know that ARG had Hillary up by 20 in their last poll? Just saying..

[Spider Jerusalem]

102. Two new polls from two of the consistently worst polling outfits in this primary.

The only poll that matters is going to be on Tuesday.

[thewiseguy]

103. Funny thing is that her lead in ARG dropped by 7 points and still..

This dude is trying to spin it... :rofl: He was not paying attention even when he was "supporting" Obama.

[ShadowLiberal]

104. The only way a Hillary win in PA can change things is if she wins 100% of the delegates

Hillary is still down by something like 163 pledged delegates, and Pennsylvania only has 100 something delegates up for grabs. Even if Hillary wins a huge blowout, say 2 to 1, she would still only pick up something like 40 or so more delegates then Obama.

In order for a Hillary victory in PA to 'change everything' Hillary would have to win every single delegate up for grabs in PA, which obviously isn't happening. That's exactly why I, a PA citizen, have been saying it's horrible that we've got two candidates duking it out for months. Despite how plenty of people insist "we have to keep this going until everyone gets a say in the matter" the fact of the matter is the decision has already been made, Hillary has to win something like 66% of the vote in every state left to catch up to Obama in pledged delegates, PA can only keep that number at 66% and stop it from rising to like 70%.

The only way Obama can possibly lose the nomination is if he screws up REALLY bad, something 100 times worse then stuff like the Weather Underground controversy.

[MadBadger]

109. I find your swtich to be disengenious and downright idiotic

You switch candidates because Obama has been making mistakes as you say? Why did you support Obama in the first place? It was obvious not for his beliefs and policies.

[goldcanyonaz]

111. LOVE YOU TROPICS!

In caps so it's even more true.

:hug:

[goldcanyonaz]

112. Just donated for you Tropics, now you have a star too.

[McCamy Taylor]

113. Sounds good but Obama has outspent her three to one. He has to do better than that.

No one could fail to close the gap after sinking that kind of money in a state.

[still_one]

121. If he gets within single digits for a state that a couple of weeks ago was 20+ for Clinton

he has won

[Clintonista2]

114. K&R

[still_one]

115. I don't know what will happen, but zogby has had one of the worst records this year

let me refresh your memory, in the early primaries zogby said Obama would win NH, clinton did. The way I look at it if your are relying on zogby, Obama will be just fine

as far as your crap about 32% will never vote for Obama in the primary, do you know how many won't vote for Clinton if she gets the nomination in the general election

[jackson_dem]

123. You are right but Zogby usually shows Obama doing significantly better than he actually does

Zogby had him winning California and tied in Ohio. Right now Zogby has him down 48-42...

Don't hold NH against Zogby. Every pollster got NH wrong.

[still_one]

124. His methodology is flawed in my view. In fact the polls are all over the board

which implies to me that either when they take the sample it is not representative, or people are not being honest

These polls, from either side are a pissing contest, with each side believing it somehow demoralizes the opponent.

The only poll that counts is on election day

What I do find interesting though, is the polls used to be fairly accurate, and now for some reason that appears not to be the case.

I do not know if games are getting played or not, but it does appear strange to me

Zogby's record has not been good, and it wasn't just NH.

[jackson_dem]

125. Undecideds behave oddly this time

By and large the polls have been pretty on target, with the notable exceptions of New Hampshire and Wisconsin and some southern states. Usually undecided voters break heavily for the challenger against the incumbent, which Hillary kind of is. However she does consistently better among late deciding voters. Black undecided voters are the exception to this. Obama usually leads among blacks something like 72-15 in polls but in every state all the black undecideds go to Obama and he winds up with 80-91% of the black vote in each state (mostly in the mid 80's or higher). This is why his margins are consistently higher in southern states with large black populations. The polls don't reflect that black undecided voters break exclusively (as in 90-95%) for Obama and this is why polls had him in the 40's in SC but he would up with 55%

[still_one]

134. You are correct about the undecideds, but unless zogby changed his methodoligy

I don't give his polls any credence anymore

You and I pretty much agree on this though

[tekisui]

130. Polls this close are unreliable. I am lookin for a 4-6% win for HIllary.