State polls are diretly contradicting each other, where in places like Ohio, Fox News has Bush ahead of Kerry 45% to 41%
But ARG has Kerry head of Bush in that same state , 49% to 43%
for the same dates.
Same thing In Pennsylvia, wher Fox has Bush ahead 46 % to 41%
but again, Quinnipiac has Kerry ahead 44% to 43%
Fox again, Bush ahead in Florida, 48% to 38%
But another poll in Florida, ARG, has Kerry head 47% to 46%
The most recent Fox poll for Michigan does it again, Bush ahead of Kerry, 42% to 40%, but there no one has done a recent poll during this latest time period in that state which reverses this data, and this is the state that I expect Kerry will do far better in.
This is in keeping with my theory thatconservaitive supporting media or organizations are trying to effect public opinion in states where Kerry isa ahead of Bush, by running polls that are slanted in such a way that they get the results they want, that is Bush in the lead. I suspect that the nect polls done in Michigan by someone other than Fox will show Kerry in the lead in that state.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.htmlFox was very active in trying to create the image that Bush was going to win in 2000, and it is thought that this was responsible for a number of late democratic voters deciding that it was not worth their while to go out and vote, as the deal was done. I think they are trying to build up for a similar attempt in November, but I do not think that Democratic voters will be quite as gullible this time around.
This latest round of polling in the states dows indicate that Reagans dealth may have given Bush a boost, but not enough to put him ahead of Kerry. Right now breaking down electoral votes in states where Kerry leads, Kerry has 246 electoral votes in 17 states, Bush has 162 electoral votes in 18 states, 9 states too close to tell with 100 EV, and 8 states in which no polls have been done which have 30 EV.
Kewrry is still ahead in Florida accoring to the site that tracks these EV's, He is ahead in New Hampshire, and Iowa. For an additional 38 electoral votes giving Kerry the win in the elctoral college with 284 electoral votes.
Goes doen good in my book. Kerry has consistantly been keeping enough of a lead in electoral votes that only require him to win two or 3 states to win the electoral college even if Bush takes 14 of the 17 states that are too close to call or for which no data exists.
Kerry is likely to take Hawaii, for which there is no data, another 4 EV. Demoending on who Kerry selets as running mate, Missouri. one of the too close to tell states, could go to Kerry, Where Bush has 48.6 percent in tracking polls, Kerry has 47.9 percent. Gephardt could certainly make the differnce in his home state. And a number of polls indicate that Gephardt could firm up Kerry's leads in Ohio, Michigan, and Wisonsin. Bush is ahead in North Carolina 47% to 42% for Kerry, a longer stretch for Edwards to work on, but not inconceivable. The only southern states left where Bush is only ahead by single digits include Louisiana (Bush 48% Kerry 42%),West Virginia (Bush 49.1% Kerry 43.1%. Florida is 2 percent in Kerry's favor, and Kerry is 2 percent ahead in Arkansas right now) Edwards has a bit of a stretch in the states that Bush has 5 or 6 point leads in, and he might do it in his home state, but unlikely outside of his own state, as his inability to beat Kerry in southern states other than his home state was a string indication that Edwards may not have what it takes to sway his own region. Lookin strategically, Gephardt would have less problems bringing his own states electoral votes to Kerry, and less of a problem boosting Kerry's lead in a ferw other midwestern states, particularly those with a heavy union make up, like Michigan. Gephart is the king of the hill with the United Auto Workers, and like the Teamsters, Gephardt, is the running mate that the U.A.W. is stringly suggesting that Kerry select. A recent Ohio poll shows that Gephardt boosts Kerry's lead in that state more than another running mate, boosting Kerry's polls in that state by one percentage point. Enough to firm the state for Kerry. I think a good deal is riding on the running mate, particualrly in the area of firming up a nuber of states. Strategically Gepahrdt will have an easier job of it than Edwards.
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