Insider reports show Gephardt likely VP choice

[dumpster_baby]

From The New Republic (TNR) we get some excellent speculation that shows that The Gepster is the likely VP.

As a BIG fan of any pro-labor politician, I am very very very pleased to report that it is looking like Gephardt will be the VP. He was my second choice behind Kucinich.
Here are some quotes from the TNR article:

>>>>>>>>>>>

It was no surprise that Mr. Kerry and Mr. Gephardt were talking: they have been colleagues in Congress for decades and escaped the Democratic primaries without developing any obvious enmity between them. Mr. Gephardt, a former House minority leader whose hometown, St. Louis, lies in a pivotal county in a battleground state, also brings broad experience in domestic and foreign policy that Mr. Kerry's advisers say he is looking for in a running mate.

Yet there are strategic political reasons, too, for Mr. Kerry to show that he is giving Mr. Gephardt serious consideration. For one, the congressman is by far the favored candidate of the labor movement, an important Democratic constituency whose leaders have had their differences with Mr. Kerry over trade and other issues but have suggested that all would be forgiven in November with Mr. Gephardt on the ticket.

But in light of the report in today's Note that "Kerry has told associates that he views the vice presidency as an extremely important institution and wants a person of heft to fill it," and in light of the fact that the universe of possible heavyweights is pretty small--John McCain has taken himself out of contention, and, as my colleague Ryan Lizza reports, the vetting process is essentially over, meaning there's really no way people like Bill Cohen (and probably Sam Nunn) could be added to Kerry's short list at this point--Gephardt looks like an increasingly likely choice. Other than Gephardt, the only people "of heft" likely to be on Kerry's list are Wesley Clark and Bob Graham, both of whom proved themselves to be less than reliable on the trail during the primary campaign.

>>>>>>>>>

A quote from Kerry's step-son seems to reflect the growing consensus in "Kerry-land" --"I was very pro-Edwards in the spring. But now I think we may need someone with stronger credentials on foreign policy. "

The full article here:
http://www.tnr.com/etc.mhtml?pid=1759

[LittleApple81]

1. Clark proved less than reliable??? What? well, Kerry/A-Democrat will do it

for me at this time. Sigh.... I would have loved Clark. For me, it would have, in order of preference:
Clark, Edwards, Graham, Gephardt...

[Stephanie]

2. Does not lend charisma, IMO

I think that's a problem.

[Warpy]

4. Charisma is overrated

Gephardt brings a long list of union endorsements and a pretty good background on labor issues, something Kerry lacks.

I would have preferred Edwards, because I think Kerry needs both a good orator and someone who knows how the rest of us live. I hope that Edwards will be on the campaign trail with him, whether or not he gets onto the ticket.

Let's face it, a dustball on the other half of the ticket would still be better than Cheney.

[Skwmom]

9. So how do the Democrats hammer Bush on Iraq

when Gephardt was the one who sold the Democrats out on the Iraq Resolution to begin with? But what the heck, Gephardt had his future presidential aspirations to worry about. I often wonder if he ever thinks about how many innocent serviceman and women (and Iraqi civilians)have lost their lives because of this war. Maybe if he hadn't caved into Bush this whole debacle might not have happened.

[alexwcovington]

12. As if a union endorsement is going to help

What's left of the labour movement is behind Kerry. We need someone to bring in the rest of America.

[wakfs]

36. Remember the ego factor

Having someone as drab as Gephardt on the ticket makes Kerry look positively Kennedyesque by comparison.

[saracat]

8. A Biiiiig Problem

and Gep can't get out the vote.Sheesh, even the unions bolted on him!He DIDN'T get all the union vote .Dean got a large chunk.In fact I think more.And Gep wasn't a good minority Leader. Most Dems feel he sold out.And he did.It really should be Clark or Edwards.They add zing! And however said Clark floundered in the primary,excuse me,Gep was out first.He didn't make it past go.

[JI7]

15. Kerry won the union votes

[saracat]

38. I know

But Dean had quite a few in the beggining!

[Skwmom]

11. Clark has plenty of charisma.

His Q factor (I believe that's what you call it) is off the charts.

[Kimber Scott]

3. Boring.

nt

[Dr.Phool]

5. Another possibility

Who's been flying around more with Kerry, and for him than anyone else.

MAX CLELAND!

I met Max in Tampa this week, and what a great guy. Lets see the Repukes try to smear 2 decorated war veterans.

[venus]

19. Clark's a war veteran too. Purple heart, Silver Star, etc, etc, n/t

[deminflorida]

6. I can hear the corks popping in Freeperville now....

n/t

[Skwmom]

7. The old less than reliable meme.

What a crock of b.s. The corporate media, who has a vested interest in four more years of Crooked Bush Inc.,figure that if they repeat a lie often enough people will buy into. Sadly enough they do.

[QC]

10. This would be an unmitigated disaster...

every bit as bad as Gore choosing Holy Joe in 2000. What on earth would possess Kerry to choose the only person in politics even less charismatic than he for his running mate?

[MasonJar]

13. I heard tonight that there was a good chance it would be

Edwards.

[Scoopie]

14. Less than reliable

That old meme is back.
I guess less than reliable people don't win a state and come in second in three others and third in four others.
Huh?
That's just silly. Gep placed FOURTH in Iowa and then dropped out. How "reliable" is that?
And Graham dropped out before he could get any votes, so we don't know where he would have come in.

The media's memes are just idiotic.

[DFLforever]

18. This gives credence to the story that Gep came in 4th in Iowa as a result

of tipping part of his support to the guy who came in #1.

[janx]

26. I guess you watched the live coverage of that caucus.

It was very strange to me.

[dumpster_baby]

31. can you please elaborate?

It was "very strange" to you? What the heck does that mean?

22. Exactly, Scoopie

More media nonsense. We may not agree 100% on VP choices, but we certainly agree on the idiocy of the media.

[janx]

27. There was vote swapping, Scoopie.

I don't know that you paid attention since Clark wasn't running there, but vote swapping happened.

[BootinUp]

32. I watched it too

and I don't attribute it to Gep falling on his sword. People debated and made choices, isn't that how a caucus is supposed to be? There was definitely some bandwagon jumping. But I just totally reject the notion that Gep sent the word around. Don't you remember how broken up he was after that dissapointing showing? The man cried.

[janx]

35. Sure he was broken up. But vote swapping happened

all the same. The Iowa caucus process allows for that.

[OWR51]

16. Picking Sam Nunn would destroy Bush

We would pickup Georgia and probably swing Florida. He also would pickup conservatives from Bush. Bush would be a 5 to 10 point underdog overnite.

[Awsi Dooger]

28. We could have Jesus Christ for VP and still no chance at Georgia

That state is trending solid red, long before our Diebold hysteria.

[newyawker99]

39. Hi OWR51!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Guaranteed]

17. BAD, BAD IDEA.

You need someone to contrast Kerry's personality, someone like Edwards, who has charm.

[Democat]

20. No wimps allowed!

We need tough Democrats in leadership, not wimps like Gephardt.

21. Excellent Speculation Is Still Just SPECULATION

this is no "inside information."

Just more speculative embroidery.

[CPops57]

23. Its not my favorite choice, but Gep wins us the election.

A couple of battleground states hinge on labor vote IMO. Gep gets us the White House.

Is he perfect? No.

Will he please the peeps on the far left? No.

But we will knock Bush outta the park with this pick. This gets us the majority in the electoral college.

[dumpster_baby]

29. Geppie and the "far Left"

When my man Kucinich started to crash and burn before the vote ever came down in Iowa, I researched all the other candidates to see which was most populist/leftist. THe answer was Gephardt. THe only thing about him that would displease the "Far Left" (man, I am pretty far left myself!) would be that he sanctioned the Iraq war. Otherwise, he is one of the most left-leaning, if the not THE most left leaning, major figures in Washington (outside of Nader). He is a labor populist--hey, that IS left.

[shivaji]

24. Gephardt is the best VP choice based on reality......

He delivers Missouri, and strengthens Iowa, Illinois,
Ohio and other labor intensive states. Very good choice
based on practicality & reality instead of emotion.

[OneBlueSky]

25. choosing Gephart would be like serving cold mashed potatoes . . .

Kerry has a chance to do something dramatic, something dynamic in choosing his VP . . . if he picks Gephart, he will have squandered that opportunity and cause me, for one, to seriously question his judgement . . . I'd still vote for him, but only because he's not Bush . . .

[wjsander]

30. Settle down, people...

Kerry isn't going to sacrifice his lead in the polls to appease to the union and his buddy Gep... right?

[WI_DEM]

33. I agree I think it will be Gep

They get along
He respects Gep's years of service
He has domestic and foreign policy experience
He has paid his dues to the party over the years
He is from a key battleground state.

[TexasSissy]

34. Gephardt brings labor union support, not foreign policy.

Kerry already has foreign policy credentials on his own. So Gephardt doesn't help much in that regard.

But the union vote is critical.

I don't like the idea of Gephardt, but I've read that he and Kerry are friends, so Kerry would be comfortable w/him. And if Gephardt brings some votes in, that'd be good.

I'll vote for Kerry no matter who he selects. But I'd be disappointed w/Gephardt. He's so boring, he's against environmental issues, and he's another Washington insider. And he's out of touch w/the small business owner.

[WI_DEM]

37. on the other hand

Gephardt's near 30 years experience in congress actually includes alot of foreign policy experiece as he has met foreign leaders and debated foreign policy issues. It is just as good as Kerry's. Just because someone has been in the military doesn't mean they have foreign policy credentials. But I agree with you about the unions wanting him.

I, too, hope it isn't Gep.

[Sparkly]

40. On the other other hand

Another long voting record to pick over and make hay of surely makes Rove salivate.

I reeeeeally hope it isn't Gep.

[Tom Rinaldo]

41. I hope not

I posted this in another thread that was not specifically about Gep for VP, so I'm posting it here too. Gep would be the safe choice in a safe election, but this is not a safe election. By the way when I note below that Gep would hurt with young voters, I am not implying that they will turn to Bush or even Nader, I am afraid that even less of them will go to the polls at all without a Clark, Edwards, or Dean on the ticket. Maybe we can "afford" to not "pander" to that group, but Gephardt appeals to very few outside his shrinking core constituency. The prior post:

"Some activists would get turned off, yes, but even more dangerous, it weakens Kerry with swing voters and with younger voters. A Kerry/Gephardt ticket would soon be morphed into "This IS your father's Oldsmobile"; two old Democratic war horses from the 90's repackaged and recycled for the 21st century. The Republicans would have a field day with that ticket. Same old Liberal thinking, tired tax and spend ideas, big government and big Unions. The characterization obviously would not be fair to either Kerry or Gephardt, but that is the imagery the Republicans will try to implant in the publics mind and mood. Gephardt would weaken Kerry by re solidifying the loyalty of the soft underbelly of Republican voters who have recently begun to lean away from W.

This primary season Kerry just barely escaped the negative gravitational pull of being thought of as a political hack by many Democrats and some independents. There was a damn good reason Howard Dean caught fire. Our Congressional Democratic leadership was frequently missing in action standing up to George W. Bush, AND IT WASN'T ONLY ABOUT IRAQ. Kerry came dangerously close to being rejected by the heart of the Party in favor of a Dean insurgency. To his credit Kerry battled back, but the reasons why so many were luke warm to his candidacy at first still linger near the surface. We may be united now complaining about the Bush Administration's failed leadership, but many of us recall all too well the Democratic Party's failed leadership in the run up to the mid term elections and the war in Iraq. Just when John Kerry is finally getting to move beyond those sour memories and associations, Gephardt as his running mate would resurrect them.

So a Kerry/Gephardt ticket plays poorly with moderate Republicans looking for an excuse to bail ship, it plays poorly with Independents who rejected the "old" Democratic Party and it's constituent special interest groups, and it plays poorly with a newly emerging Democratic Party activist base. It may play well in one or two key states, but there are sound reasons why Gephardt did the worst of all of the major candidates running for President this year. Gephardt couldn't even excite his own traditional base, he couldn't turn out his voters, he couldn't hold onto their loyalty, and he couldn't raise money.

Gephardt would be the "safe bet" for VP if this race was clearly John Kerry's to lose. If John Kerry were winning in the swing states, if Bush was in serious trouble in some southern states, Gep would be your game slow down ball handling defense, employed to sit on a lead and not make any big mistakes. Gep being from Missouri would give Bush an added State to worry about while he was trying to play catch up elsewhere. Unfortunately though, I don't think this election is John Kerry's to lose. Kerry has too many perceived negatives, and too many people are invested in believing that George W. Bush is a strong leader with a clear vision. This will probably be a close election. I think picking Gephardt as his running mate would simply reinforce the negative stereotypes the Republican Party is trying to hang on Kerry, giving Kerry little solid in return."

[funky_bug]

42. Of course it's Gep

I want Clark, but I know in my heart it's Gep. Kerry himself said he would have endorsed Gep if his campaign didn't go well. He said Gep was "ready made" for the office. If Kerry is looking for someone who can fill the bill, should the unthinkable happen, he's going to lean toward Gep. Clark and Edwards don't have enough experience to instill confidence in the voters. You don't think the Rove machine will jump on that if given the chance?

I'm sure Kerry loves Clark, but he does have to cover all the bases. I wish it could be Graham, but it's really leaning toward Gep.

[Monte Carlo]

43. The New Republic has been very flaky lately.

Unless TNR knows something definite, which I don't think they do, I think this gets filed under 'Speculation'.

[surfermaw]

44. Kerry son made the biggest mistake of the campaign

He isn't nominee...Kerry is... This was a stupid remark , or either make to have a little more excitement, when Edwards is announced.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

45. Ugh! My recent decision to support Kerry is still reversable.

Congressman Rose Garden would be stretching my nose holding ability.