New North Carolina Poll: Obama: 54% Clinton: 34%

[book_worm]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_041408.pdf

this will provide a nice cushion should Obama lose in Pennsylvania.

Conducted 4/12-4/13.

[jackson_dem]

1. Good for him but he needs to win IN for a knockout blow

[Blondbostonian]

2. Maybe in Fantasyland he does. I'm here in reality.

[jackson_dem]

4. Really? So if he loses PA and IN the supers will end it on 5/7?

[book_worm]

7. It's looking like it will go all the way to the end of the primaries in June.

I think Obama will lose PA and Indiana and will win NC and Oregon. If past strength means anything he will also win Montana and South Dakota and Hill will probably take Puerto Rico. So at the end of this thing I think the final contests will be four wins for Obama and three for Hillary. I don't think she will be able to close his lead in pledged delegates or popular vote and at that point I think the SD will begin to decide this thing.

[jackson_dem]

9. You forgot WV and KY

It would be, under the conventional wisdom, Clinton 5, Obama 4. I am not sold on the conventional wisdom that Obama has the advantage in MT and SD. He did win similar states but those were in caucuses. Idaho had 2.1% turnout, North Dakota 5.9%, and Wyoming 2.5%. My source is http://elections.gmu.edu/Voter_Turnout_2008_Primaries.htm . Let's compare that to the primary listed prior to the states I mentioned. Georgia 32.7% turnout, New York 19.9%, Vermont 39.2%. South Dakota and Montana are primaries so I would not read that much into WY, ID, and ND. You have to factor in momentum as well. If Clinton enters 6/3 having won 5 out of 7 that will make a huge difference.

As to the pledged delegate and popular vote count, I think she will close the gap and perhaps end up ahead in the popular vote if you included Florida. The only big win Obama will have is North Carolina. Even in Oregon he is only up 10 right now and that would very likely change if he enters Oregon having lost three of four (PA, IN, and WV). He may win ND and MT big if they vote like the nearby caucus states did, which I do not believe is a certainty (compare the primary results in Washington and Texas to the caucus results. Clinton does far better in primaries where her voting blocs are not disenfranchised.), won't make much of a difference since they are so small.

[PseudoIntellect]

20. Mostly wishful thinking.

I could say I'm "not sold on the conventional wisdom" that Clinton has the advantage in WV and KY. It's pretty obvious that she is, though.

And it's probably safe to say that for Obama in MT, SD, OR, and NC.

IN will be close, and PR is too far away.

But really, when was the last time Obama went into a state, campaigned, and ended up doing worse than expected? He usually closes gaps. Why should we expect any different the rest of the races? Wishful thinking, that's why.

[jackson_dem]

21. The difference is there is polling data to support that for WV and KY

There is not in SD and MT.

The problem is he is down 2:1 in both WV and KY. He can't make that up. Speaking of gaining ground, why isn't he doing it in Indiana and why has he stalled in Pennsylvania? The only place your theory could apply is Puerto Rico where he starts 50-37 and perhaps could close the gap with an ad blitz.

[PseudoIntellect]

23. Looks like Indiana leaned Clinton. So I'll give that one to her.

He's gaining ground in PA still. I'm betting on changes in the polls after the debates. The same happened before March 4.

She was down a couple of points in TX and up only 3 or 4 in OH before that final ad. Will she pull that off again?

[jackson_dem]

26. He isn't. He stopped gaining in PA over a week ago. Obamites are in denial

Just like they were when the same exact thing happened at this point in Ohio. I also am expecting a change in the polls after the debates--in her favor. She almost always benefits from a debate. Why do you think Obama did not want to debate in Wisconsin?

She has a new ad on smalltowngate. Let's see what that does. Clinton is up 7 in the rcp average. If smalltowngate, both the ad and the controversy itself, can get her even 5 more points that will be very significant. There is a huge difference in terms of perception between a 7 point win and a 12 point win given her situation.

[PseudoIntellect]

29. True, Hillary won most of the early debates but has lagged behind in some recent ones.

And the math of a 12 point win in PA would be offset/canceled out by an 18 point loss in NC.

[Colobo]

13. Hopefully it won't have to go that far.

[malik flavors]

19. He'll lose PA, but he'll get a bounce after N.C. and Indiana will be a close match.

We're going to South Dakota no matter what. Even if wins Indiana I highly doubt Hillary would drop out.

[sunonmars]

3. by the looks of it Fat chance in Indiana

[jenmito]

5. No he doesn't. Hillary needs to win NC if she even wants a CHANCE at convincing SDs to go against

the will of the people. Harold Ford and others have said that the winner of NC will be the nominee.

[rodeodance]

10. harrah for DINO Harold Ford.

[StevieM]

11. Well, if Harold Ford said it then it must be true. And I guess if NC votes for Obama then

West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota will just fall in line.

Steve

[Upton]

16. No but Ore., Mont., and SD will

that will be enough

[StevieM]

28. First of all, by the time SD and MT vote there will have been elections in all the other states

So right there it is going through to June 3.

Second, we don't know who Barack will do in actual elections in those states you mentioned, so far he has only won in those regions in caucuses. Elections may go very differently.

Steve

[jackson_dem]

24. Only pro-Obama people like DLC chair Harold Ford say that

They know she has almost no shot there because of Obama's rock solid black support that deviated in only 1 of 42 states thus far, and even there he beat her 61-37 in her home state of New York. How can Clinton win if Obama is winning 1/3 of the population 90-10 and this level of support is unshakable? Her only shot is to win over 70% of the white vote and that has only happened, excluding Arkansas, in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Tennessee (she got 67% but Edwards got 6%. In a two way race she would have gotten past 70%).

[thevoiceofreason]

6. Says who? Action Jackson?

[anonymous171]

14. lol. Coincidentally, Hillary is polling ahead in IN.

Totally wasn't considered when you decided to place your goalposts.

[grantcart]

18. he doesn't need a knock out blow

once he hits 50% of the pledged delegates a large number of SD are going to move, including some Clinton supporters.


She can continue to embarrass herself as long as she wants.

[book_worm]

8. kick

[bridgit]

12. i suppose some things are a given...

[goldcanyonaz]

15. Why is he doing so well there?

*ponders*

[bridgit]

22. no comment

[MattNC]

27. several reasons

Positives for Barack:

Relatively large African American population (little over 20% of total pop.)
Growing highly educated White population (lots of more affluent Whites from up north moving to Raleigh area over last decade)
Lots of college towns
Semi-open primary (Dems & unaffiliated voters only)

Negatives for Hillary:

Growing but still limited Latino presence
Rural Whites are mostly Republicans here (She'll do well in Appalachia and some of the coastal areas, but they're too small a % of the vote in a Dem primary to help her enough.)
The low union presence of working class Whites that's helping her in PA
Bill always struggled making inroads in the state...not very popular
She lacks the high profile endorsements here that have helped in other large states (Governor is staying neutral, no Dem senators, two Dem candidates for Gov. have endorsed Obama)

[PseudoIntellect]

17. If Hillary wins PA by 10%, and Obama wins NC by 15%, they'll cancel out.

Right now it's looking closer to a 7-8 point win for Hillary in PA and a 15-16 point win for Obama in NC.

Obama can win NC in the GE. He can also win PA.

Hillary can only win PA.

[usregimechange]

25. NC is in play with Obama as the nominee...