Clinton leads 47-41 (44-35 among likely voters) in PA in new Temple Uni. poll

[jackson_dem]

Keep in mind this is before Obama's "macaca moment" about small towns in Pennsylvania. :

-snip-

Senator Hillary Clinton leads Senator Barack Obama by 44 – 35 percent among Pennsylvanians likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary on April 22. Nineteen percent remain undecided or refuse to express a preference, but that group leans toward Obama. Adding in the undecided voters who lean to one candidate or the other shrinks Clinton’s lead to 47 – 41 percent.

Asked to express an opinion about the candidates on a scale from 0 to 10, just 1 percent of likely voters say they don’t know enough about the candidates to rate them. “Not many Pennsylvanians who are likely to vote in the primary remain uncertain about the candidates or their choice,” said Michael G. Hagen, director of Temple’s Institute for Public Affairs. “That’s why, despite the growing intensity of the campaign, we’ve seen very little reliable change in the polls over the past several weeks.”

Differences among demographic groups are stark:
• 83 percent of blacks favor Obama, compared to 31 percent of whites
• 79 percent under the age of 30 favor Obama, compared to 28 percent over 60 years old
• 55 percent of women favor Clinton, compared to 32 percent of men

http://www.temple.edu/newsroom/2007_2008/04/stories/Templepoll_Pennsylvania.htm

[GarbagemanLB]

1. From a 20 point gap to 6. Go Obama!

[jefferson_dem]

2. Six point baby!!!

Hillary's so done. Hopefully, she will have enough dignity left to drop the fuck out after PA.

[jackson_dem]

3. It is Ohio redux. Obama has stalled and will go backwards after the debate

Especially if the msm covers his "macaca moment".

[book_worm]

8. you were hoping it would be Rev. Wright and now you're going to cling to this

Hillary will throw her kitchen sinks and accomplish what she did with Rev. Wright--drive up her own negatives--the question is how high can she go.

[jackson_dem]

9. Wright had nothing to do with Hillary

Yes, I "hope" Obama goes down in flames in PA for being a bigot.

[jefferson_dem]

12. Supposing your Ohio redux predication become reality.

She will gain maybe 15 PDs. How will she make up the other 154?

...Especially after Obama makes those 15 back in NC...

[jackson_dem]

14. IN, WV, KY, PR, and breaking at least even in OR, keeping it close in NC

Perhaps even winning SD and MT. She should narrow the gap over the next contests since she will win most of them but in the end she will need to win superdelegates, which is why I am pleased to see Obama performing so poorly in PA in an area the supers will be keeping a close eye on.

Obama will lose IN if Hill wins PA so he won't make PA back on 5/6. He will get trounced the following week in WV--especially now that he had his "macaca moment" regarding small town folks.

[jefferson_dem]

15. Uh huh.

Good luck with that.

I won't bother to bookmark for future reference.

[jackson_dem]

18. That isn't a prediction. That is an answer to your question

She has a shot. That is why they play the game: to see how things break.

[jefferson_dem]

22. Fair enough, Jackson.

:toast:

[MethuenProgressive]

4. BO at 35%? Why so high?

Maybe they haven't heard?

Obama on small-town PA: Clinging religion, guns, xenophobia

Huffpo's Mayhill Fowler has more from Obama's remarks at a San Francisco fundraiser Sunday, and they include an attempt to explain the resentment in small-town Pennsylvania that won't be appreciated by some of the people whose votes Obama's seeking:

You go into these small towns in Pennsylvania and, like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them...And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not.
And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/Obama_on_smalltown_PA_Clinging_religion_guns_xenophobia.html

[book_worm]

7. keep hoping that Obama will be derailed, he won't be.

Hillary and Bill have their own problems with this Columbian trade deal and her laughing it off.

[jackson_dem]

10. Yeah they haven't heard yet. It will be interesting to see if the pro-Obama msm covers it

The national msm probably won't since they have invested so much in their candidate but there is a good chance the PA press will--especially the press in rural areas (i.e. Lancaster)...

[adoraz]

5. great news! NC will more than cancel out PA. :)

[jackson_dem]

11. What about IN, WV, KY, PR, and perhaps even OR, SD, and MT?

:)

[book_worm]

17. NC, OR, SD, and MT are likely to go for Obama

he leads the polls in NC and OR. SD and Montana are in regions where Obama has performed very well in the past (most recently in Wyoming). They also go against the grain of your argument that Obama can't win white votes since he has won numerous states with few minority voters. As for Indiana, it's too soon to say who will win there. Now I know you're hoping for a huge Hillary win in PA which will have a domino effect on these other states, but I don't see it happening. Even if it was an Ohio like victory it wouldn't be enough to change the dynamic. She needs something in the high double digits to make an impact and I don't think it will happen.

[jackson_dem]

19. SD and MT aren't caucuses with 1.9% turnout

42 states voted. You can cherry pick states, especially caucuses with 2-5% turnout. He is losing the non-black vote nationally by about 11%.

SD and MT are in June. If Clinton has the momentum entering it by winning PA, IN, winning WV and KY big, keeping it close or winning OR, and winning PR she has a good chance in SD and MT.

[book_worm]

6. "macaca moment"?? Oh come on.

But back to this poll. Very fluid. Both candidates have their problems whoever emerges to be the nominee:

Hillary is going to have to work hard to generate enthusiasm and turnout in the African-American community. Sure she will get 80% or more but what will turnout levels be?

Obama will have to work on older women

There is a serious gender gap--men have almost consistently favored Obama while women favor Hillary. Even white men favor Obama in this poll by 40-35.

Another point is that undecideds, as usually is the case break towards the challenger. Hillary was the annointed one for four years as the nominee while Obama is less known in PA. Undecideds, according to those who were pushed, favor Obama 2-1. If undecideds end up going to Obama by something like 2-1 it would be a very close election and even if Hillary pulls out a victory it wouldn't be by anything she needs to overtake Obama either in the popular vote or in pledged delegates.

[jackson_dem]

13. Hillary isn't the incumbent

Dukakis lost 85-90% of the black vote to Jackson and still got the usual level of black support in the GE. If she puts O on the ticket she will be fine. How can Obama move up to a decent level with whites, though? There is no candidate who commanded 90% white support so he doesn't have a quick big step that can go a long way to solving the problem.

Hillary isn't the incumbent. Exit polls show her doing best with those who decide within the past 3 days. This is what happened in Ohio and Texas, and even Wisconsin (she almost tied him among that group in WI despite losing by 17 overall).

[book_worm]

16. Jackson was never as serious a candidate as Obama

and never won as many states or as many white votes for that matter. If Obama is such a devastating candidate in November how come he wins PA in a new Rasmussen poll by almost as much as Hillary vs. McCain. He wins by 8% while she wins by 9%?
www.rasmussenreports.com

Then there are many other polls in states where black voters aren't a huge factor and Obama performs better than Hillary:
Iowa, one poll has him up by 4 over McCain while Hillary loses by 15.
Colorado he's even with McCain (46-46) while Hillary loses by double-digits
Wisconsin, O is in a statisical dead-heat with McCain while Hillary loses by 11.
Even Oregon and Washington which have gone Democratic in every election since '88 Obama is ahead of McCain while Hillary is running behind.

Other states where minorities have little presence also show Obama doing better than Hillary. Montana is competitive with Obama (McCain leads by six) while Hillary loses by 18.

Let's look at NY, where you posted that Marist poll yesterday and took such satisfaction in Obama being behind by two points and Hillary ahead of McCain by 2-points. She is their US Senator and she is only two points ahead? But realistically I think we know that either Obama or Clinton will win New York in November.

[jackson_dem]

20. There are 50 states. You can cherry pick all day

Superdelegates will look at the whole picture. They will factor in that as the "new" candidate in a change year who has gotten a free ride from the msm he should be thrashing McSame right now--like he once did...

Jackson finished second and took the lead at one point. That isn't serious? So Gore and Gephardt were not serious that year? Edwards wasn't serious this year? Clark and Dean not serious in 2004?

[cali]

21. bwahahaha

no one cherry picks like you.

:rofl:

[goldcanyonaz]

23. Wow, look at that black vote. Ain't nothin racist goin on there.