Previous PA threads:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5362965http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=5260310Short & Sweet:
Squirrelly prediction as of 3/25: Clinton 51.4%, Obama 46.6% - Delegates, 83 vs 75
Squirrelly prediction as of 4/2: Clinton 50.7%, Obama 47.3% - Delegates, 82 vs 76
Squirrelly prediction as of 4/8: Clinton 51.2%, Obama 46.8% - Delegates, 82-3 vs 75-6Poll ................................. Date .............. # polled ...... Clinton ..... Obama ... Undecided .. Difference
Rasmussen ........................... 4/7/08 ....... 730 LV .......... 48 .......... 43 ............. 9 .......... 5SurveyUSA ............................ 4/5-7/08 ...... 597 LV ........... 56 .......... 38 ........... 2 ........... 18
ARG ..................................... 4/5-6/08 ........ 600 LV .......... 45 .......... 45 ............ 6 ........... 0
Quinnipiac .......................... 4/3-6/08 ..... 1340 LV ........... 50 .......... 44 ........... 6 ........... 6 InsiderAdvantage .................... 4/2/08 ......... 659 LV .......... 45 .......... 42 ........... 12 .......... 3
Muhlenberg ........................ 3/27-4/2/08 ..... 406 LV ........... 51 ........... 41 ........... 6 ......... 10
PPP (D) ........................... 3/31-4/1/08 ..... 1224 LV ........... 43 .......... 45 .......... 13 .......... -2
Rasmussen ..................... 3/31/2008 ...... 730 LV ........... 47 .......... 42 .......... 11 .......... 5SurveyUSA ........................ 3/29-31/08 ...... LV ................. 53 .......... 41 ........... 2 ........... 12
Quinnipiac ...................... 3/24-31/08 ..... 1549 RV ........... 50 .......... 41 ........... 8 ........... 9ARG ................................ 3/26-27/08 ........ 600 LV .......... 51 .......... 39 ............ 8 ........... 12
Rasmussen ..................... 3/24/2008 ...... 697 LV ........... 49 .......... 39 .......... 12 .......... 10PPP (D) ............................. 3/15-16/08 ..... 597 LV ........... 56 .......... 30 .......... 14 .......... 26
Franklin & Marshall College .... 3/11-16/08 ..... 294 LV ........... 51 .......... 35 .......... 13 .......... 16
Quinnipiac ...................... 3/10-16/08 ..... 1304 LV .......... 53 .......... 41 ........... 6 ........... 12Rasmussen ..................... 3/12/2008 ...... 697 LV ........... 51 .......... 38 ........... 11 .......... 13SurveyUSA ......................... 3/8-10/08 ...... 608 LV ........... 55 .......... 36 ........... 3 ........... 19
Susquehanna ...................... 3/5-10/08 ...... 500 RV ........... 45 .......... 31 ........... 19 .......... 14
Strategic Vision (R) ............. 3/7-9/08 ......... LV ............... 56 .......... 38 ............ 6 ........... 18
ARG .................................. 3/7-8/08 ........ 600 LV .......... 52 .......... 41 ............ 6 ........... 11
Rasmussen ...................... 3/5/2008 ....... 690 LV .......... 52 .......... 37 ............ 11 .......... 15For trend purposes, still not liking SurveyUSA or ARG. I'm adding Quinnipac in though because they've been doing polls in PA for a very long time and they switched back to "Likely Voters", and their numbers haven't been widely diverging from each other. Plus they have a very large sample group and have been doing semi-regular polls.
Rasmussen is a change from 15% gap to 5% gap in nearly 5 weeks. Quinnipac is a change from 12% gap to 6% gap in 3 weeks. In both cases Obama closes the gap by 2% per week. This is a reduction from last week's analysis of 3% per week, and returns to the previous week's estimate of 2%.
Current Pollster graph:
Pollster averages it out to 50.5% for Clinton, 42.7% for Obama with two weeks to go.
If Obama continues to close the gap by 2%, using the above numbers, the final result could be:
Clinton 50.9%, Obama 47.1%, giving Clinton and Obama each 1/2 of the undecideds and allowing for a 2% "Other" vote.
To be safe, I'll give Clinton 56% of the undecideds (I gave her 65% last time but I think that was excessive)
Final: Clinton 51.2%, Obama 46.8% In other words, nearly back to the original prediction from March 25. We're essentially looking at 51% to 47% in PA. The difference will be in how many undecideds Obama can pull in.