THE MATH – Monday, April 7 – Two Weeks Before Pennsylvania

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH – Monday, April 7 – Two Weeks Before Pennsylvania

TIME: 6:45 a.m. Eastern (US)

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,023.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,687.0 of 3,253.0 – 82.6%

********************************************

THE MAGIC NUMBER

Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below:

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 82 of 305 remaining superdelegates needed, or 26.9%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 242 of 305 remaining superdelegates needed, or 79.3%

The Huckabee Index – 63 (or 20.7% of remaining superdelegates needed)

The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)

Spreadsheet for Current Data
Spreadsheet for Magic Numbers and Huckabee Index

********************************************

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 1,654.5 (369.0 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,502.5 (521.0 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 871.0
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 4/07/08)

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 234 (Source: NBC 4/07/08 plus NC-6)
Hillary Clinton – 254 (Source: NBC 4/07/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 305

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 1,420.5 (206.0 short of HALF)
Hillary Clinton – 1,248.5 (378.0 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 566.0
(Source: Wikipedia 4/07/08)

OVERALL CONTESTS WON: Barack Obama – 30; Hillary Clinton – 15
PRIMARIES WON: Barack Obama – 16; Hillary Clinton – 12
CAUCUSES WON: Barack Obama – 14; Hillary Clinton – 3
BLUE AND RED STATES WON:
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 16 Red
Hillary Clinton – 6 Blue, 8 Red

POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Total weighted* popular vote as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 15,802,692 (+1,755,095)
Hilary Clinton – 14,047,597
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes

Status Quo unweighted as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 13,679,402 (+821,164)
Hillary Clinton – 12,858,238
(Source: Wikipedia 4/07/08)

Primaries only (Status Quo) as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 13,208,232 (+614,296)
Hillary Clinton – 12,593,936

Caucuses only weighted* popular vote as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 2,594,460 (+1,140,799)
Hilary Clinton – 1,453,661
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes

Caucuses only (Status Quo) unweighted total caucus votes as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 471,170 (+206,868 caucus votes)
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)

With Florida only added, weighted as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 16,378,906 (+1,460,323)
Hillary Clinton – 14,918,583

With Florida only added, unweighted as of April 7:
Barack Obama – 14,255,616 (+526,392)
Hillary Clinton – 13,729,224

With Michigan only added, weighted as of April 7*:
Barack Obama – 15,802,692 (+1,426,786)
Hillary Clinton – 14,375,906
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Michigan only added, unweighted as of April 7*:
Barack Obama – 13,679,402 (+492,855)
Hillary Clinton – 13,186,547
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, weighted as of April 7*:
Barack Obama – 16,378,906 (+1,132,014)
Hillary Clinton – 15,246,892
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, unweighted as of April 7*:
Barack Obama – 14,255,616 (+198,083)
Hillary Clinton – 14,057,533
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

********************************************

POLLS FOR UPCOMING CONTESTS, USED TO DERIVE THE “MAGIC NUMBER”

Polls have been released for some of the upcoming contests. Where no polls are available, I have marked it as “No Poll” and used a 50/50 calculation for that contest’s pledged delegates. Obviously this information will change, and I plan on updating these calculations whenever we have new or updated polls.

Pennsylvania (April 22): Polls are EVEN (ARG 4/3)
Guam (May 3): No Poll
Indiana (May 6): Clinton +3.0 (Research 2000 4/3)
North Carolina (May 6): Obama +23.0 (Rasmussen 4/5)
West Virginia (May 13): Clinton +28.0 (Rasmussen 3/20)
Kentucky (May 20): Clinton +29.0% (SurveyUSA 3/31)
Oregon (May 20): Outdated Poll (before Super Tuesday) – NEW Poll coming this week!
Puerto Rico (June 1): No Poll
Montana (June 3): Outdated Poll (before Super Tuesday)
South Dakota (June 3): No Poll

If anyone has links to new or more recent polls, please share. Thanks!

********************************************

PROJECTIONS BASED ON POLLS:

Pledged Delegates:
Barack Obama – 1,707.5 (81 above HALF)
Hillary Clinton – 1,527.5 (99 below HALF)

“Popular” Vote (unweighted) without Florida and Michigan:
Barack Obama – 16,547,603 (+841,777)
Hillary Clinton – 15,705,827

“Popular” Vote (unweighted) with Florida AND Michigan added*:
Barack Obama – 17,123,817 (+218,695)
Hillary Clinton – 16,905,122
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 238 of 305, or 78.0% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 235 of 306, or 76.6% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 227 of 317, or 71.5% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 223 of 318, or 70.0% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 86 of 305, or 28.2% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 104 of 306, or 33.8% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 91 of 317, or 28.5% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 108 of 318, or 33.8% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 209 of 305, or 68.5% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 206 of 306, or 67.2% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 198 of 317, or 62.3% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 194 of 318, or 60.8% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 115 of 305, or 37.7% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 133 of 306, or 43.3% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 120 of 317, or 37.7% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 137 of 318, or 42.9% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

*********************************************

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES

These are the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. (Note: All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.)

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated.

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
Senator Obama needs 34.8% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 65.2% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 10 – Florida Half-count, Michigan not seated
Senator Obama needs 36.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 63.5% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 11 – Florida not seated, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 35.7% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 64.3% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 12 – Florida Half-count, Michigan Compromise
Obama needs 37.4% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Clinton needs 62.6% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

********************************************

More Links:

Brokered Convention

Official Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention

Links to the spreadsheets (feel free to download and create your own scenarios):
Spreadsheet for Current Data
Spreadsheet for Magic Numbers and Huckabee Index

Link to my journal … For past editions, click on the link to view my past journal entries:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass




Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.



.

[phrigndumass]

1. Granting permission to use this information here on DU and on internet

I am granting permission for everyone to use any of this information, in whole or in part, in other threads here on DU, and anywhere on the internet.

- phrigndumass

[phrigndumass]

9. WHAT IS THE HUCKABEE INDEX?

Put in the most simple terms, it's how many superdelegates that Senator Obama needs to put the race out of reach of the Clinton campaign.

Feel free to ask me questions about anything mathy!

:dunce:

[phrigndumass]

22. Give it a kick every now and then today, to keep up its exposure in GDP

Have a great day!

[phrigndumass]

28. UPDATES since this morning

Indiana poll is now Clinton +9, up from Clinton +3 (increased Huckabee Index by 2)

North Carolina poll is now Obama +21, down from Obama +23 (increases Huckabee Index by 1)

Updated Huckabee Index: 66

[phrigndumass]

120. CUMULATIVE UPDATES since Monday

Huckabee Index on Monday morning was 63.

New Indiana poll shows Clinton +9 (was Clinton +3)
Increased Huckabee Index by 2

New North Carolina poll shows Obama +21 (was Obama +23)
Increased Huckabee Index by 1

Superdelegate Mark Wilcox (Arkansas) endorses Senator Clinton
Increased Huckabee Index by 1

New Pennsylvania poll shows Clinton +6 (was even)
Increased Huckabee Index by 3

Updated Huckabee Index - 70

****************************************

We're expecting new polls for OREGON, PENNSYLVANIA and KENTUCKY this week, maybe more. New polls and new superdelegate endorsements will change the Huckabee Index. The weekend's numbers were good to Senator Obama, but Monday's numbers were good to Senator Clinton.

:dunce:

[Demeter]

70. Can You Have an Update Post?

Like how the stock market records net results for the day, although maybe a week would be a better time frame.

Sorry, Just Didn't Read Down Far Enough--that update is a prediction, though, not a hard actual number?

[phrigndumass]

74. It's a soft number, or an indicator based on polls, not a prediction

... and polls will sway a bit here and there. But the number is mostly spiraling downward. Last week at this time it was 69, and 77 the week before. Also, everytime a superdelegate endorses Senator Obama, it goes down one. Zero is the target.

Here's a calculation to illustrate:

Senator Obama currently has 1,420.5 pledged delegates

Senator Obama currently has 234 super delegates

Total delegates so far is 1,420.5 + 234 = 1,654.5

Based on polls for upcoming state contests, Senator Obama should pick up 287 pledged delegates in those states. His pledged delegates would then be 1,420.5 + 287 = 1,707.5.

His total delegates would then be 1,707.5 pledged + 234 super = 1,941.5

Total to nominate is 2,023.5.

The number of additional super delegates needed would be 2,023.5 - 1,941.5 = 82

Senator Obama's magic number is 82.

However, once Senator Obama gains 63 of those 82 super delegates that he needs, it will be impossible for Senator Clinton to reach 2,023.5, based on her current delegates and the polls for upcoming state contests.

Hoping that helps clarify!

:hi:

(p.s. I'll be happy to do another illustration for Senator Clinton's numbers for comparison, just let me know)

[Radio_Lady]

77. Great! No use saying anything except, "You do the math." And, by golly, YOU DID!

:hi:

Thanks for the time and effort you put into this.

BTW, what the heck does your screen name mean? I have no clue and am working on selling our house, so please don't send me to Google, OK?

Peace, love and happiness,

Radio Lady in Oregon

[phrigndumass]

80. Thanks Ellen! Here's the lowdown on my screen name ...

um ... hope you're not offended ... don't laugh ...

"Friggin' Dumb Ass"

phrigndumass

I once got into a heated debate with my cousin (a freeper) that involved a lot of statistics. He made some very good points, but I clobbered him with links to details and calculations. So he called me a friggin' dumb ass. That was all the argument he had left in him, so I wear the name proudly! But I use the more secretive and polite spelling ... phrigndumass.

:hi:

[Radio_Lady]

90. Brilliant. Thanks. As a copywriter, I appreciate the humor, however foul.

Last week, I tried figuring it out backwards and forward. Thought you were involved with the DU in MASS(achusetts)where we used to live but didn't know what a PHRIGN was except an ANAGRAM that I couldn't get my mind around. My next move was a Scrabble dictionary.

Reminds me of the French word for the animal -- A SEAL is "PHOQUE" in French. I'm sure you can pronounce it.

Once in a while, in the early days of my radio career, we would chat about those seals without breaking any FCC rules -- oh, what you did for fun on the 11PM to 5AM shift. Just to keep yourself awake, that is!

Thanks for clearing it up and good luck with the cousin.

Is he showing any signs of waking up after this eight-year nightmare is over?

:rofl:

Cordially,

Radio Lady in Oregon

[phrigndumass]

97. Maybe I should capitalize the DU in phrignDUmass!

Phoque stumped me there for a second. :rofl:

Cousin "It" is among many Nebraskans voting for McSame. I'm hoping Senator Obama turns that state baby blue in the general election! That would make me soooo happy. :evilgrin:

[Radio_Lady]

110. Are our screen names case sensitive? Will the Democratic Underground stay underground?

I'm thinking about changing my screen name to something else after the election. That's because of a shift in my "returnment" status. "Returnment" is the new name for retirement -- when seniors go back to something different as a volunteer because they're bored or they need the money or the health benefits.

I've volunteered at Oregon Public Broadcasting for almost eight years. Their 24/7 audio service called Golden Hours, which morphed into the Accessible Information Network was birthed in 1975, especially for the blind and home bound seniors. However, the station advised all 100 volunteers that they would not be needed anymore because there are plenty of ways for this audience to be accessed in this day and age. The entire service will be gone by the end of April 2008. Two employees and one part-time employee are being let go.

I was asked by management to stop doing my book reviews and author interviews on 2/20/08. Secondary Audio Programming (or SAP) will go away completely next February 2009, replaced by other channels for all VHF television stations.

That means there is no further work for me to do in broadcasting even as a volunteer, unless I want to review movies for free for a local television station website -- all writing, no speaking.

So.... maybe next November, I'll be Oregon Ellen or something really spicy like you cooked up. I get bored with the "underscore" and wish I hadn't used it.

Peace,

RL

[Demeter]

83. Thank You!

You have answered all my questions and satisfied all my wishes. The explanation of your nickname is a gem, too. Maybe we should rename Democratic Underground FDA or something along those lines--I'm sure we all qualify.

[phrigndumass]

84. You're very welcome ... I'm your genie!

Just call me Aladdin.

:dunce:

[Radio_Lady]

96. What happens if I stroke your..... ummmm ..... bottle?

NOTE TO SELF: "Hey, Radio Lady, let's not go there.

You're a 68 year old grandmother, radio personality, and revered wife and mother, too.

Don't let the bawdy side take you down you like it did Randi Rhodes."

Yeah, but it feels so good to be BBAAAAAADDDD....

[phrigndumass]

99. LOL!!!

:hi:

[goclark]

105. cool

[GMFORD]

113. Let me see if I got this right.

He needs 82 to win but at 63 he prevents her from winning. Excellent number crunchery by the way.

[phrigndumass]

117. You've got it right!

Thanks GMFORD!

:hi:

[goclark]

104. Thanks so much and keeping it kicked

:bounce:

[slinkerwink]

2. kicking for a great post!

[phrigndumass]

3. Thanks slinkerwink!

:hi:

[H2O Man]

4. It's the math, .......

Thank you.
Nominated.

[phrigndumass]

5. Thanks water dude!

Good morning!

:donut:

[jefferson_dem]

6. Another ace posting by phrigndumass.

Check the links to your spreadsheets. They may be broken. :hi:

[phrigndumass]

10. Thanks jefferson_dem ... links are working for me

Good morning!

:hi:

[Jawja]

7. Thank you and

great work! I appreciate the time and effort you obviously put into this analysis on where the Democratic nomination stands. :thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

11. Happy to do it!

Thanks, and good morning!

:hi:

[DerekJ]

8. Thanks phrigndumass .. always a pleasure reading your math posts.

K & R

[phrigndumass]

14. Thanks for reading, DerekJ

:hi:

[AtomicKitten]

12. This answers many questions I have had.

Thank you.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

15. Great! Feel free to ask me a question if you have one.

Good morning!

:hi:

[flor de jasmim]

13. Thanks for taking the time to put this all together. Impressive!

[phrigndumass]

16. Thanks, Sandi!

Happy to do it.

:hi:

[PA Democrat]

17. Thanks. As always, very informative!

[phrigndumass]

18. Thanks PA Democrat!

Good morning!

:hi:

[Kukesa]

19. Good work! Thanx. n/t

[phrigndumass]

20. Thanks Kukesa!

:hi:

[JeffR]

21. K & R!

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

30. Thanks Jeff!

Great job on the DUzy awards!

:hi:

[Alter Ego]

23. Well I'll be sniftered.

Only 63? We could pick that up in PA.

[phrigndumass]

29. It's actually 63 additional "super" delegates needed

Pledged delegates are already projected in the polls section.

:hi:

[BumRushDaShow]

24. K&R for the math whiz!!

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

31. Thanks!

:hi:

[ORDem]

25. SD gap now 20? Kewl. O should be over the top on that by the PA Primary.

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

32. Fingers crossed! Knock on wood! Ptuy ptuy ptuy!

:D

... Salt over the shoulder! Rub your rabbit's foot! Bread and butter!

[grantcart]

26. what does this mean?

(Source: NBC 4/07/08 plus NC-6)

[phrigndumass]

33. The six SDs from North Carolina haven't officially endorsed yet ...

... but imho, the Wall Street Journal article about them was good enough for me to add them on.

:D

[grantcart]

35. thats what I thought

the story was denied by the Obama campaign.

We expect several to announce but not the whole delegation.

[phrigndumass]

41. Groovy. I'll look it up and change it for next week.

:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

36. atleast you know somebody actually looks at all those numbers lol

[phrigndumass]

50. it helps to have someone of your caliber to look at all those numbers!

:thumbsup:

[Scurrilous]

27. K & R

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

34. Thanks Scurrilous!

:hi:

[chill factor]

37. OK....I admit my stupidity...

What does this directive mean?

"Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP."

And while I am at it, What does n/t. mean? Most abbreviations I can figure out but this one has me stumped.

One more - how do I paste a picture into a message? My usual way does not work.

Thank you!

[phrigndumass]

38. Welcome to DU, chill factor!

When you post a reply in a thread, in effect you "bump" or "kick" it back to the top of the GDP page.

I believe n/t can have two meanings. If you see nt or n/t in a subject line, it means "no text" as in there is no text in the body of the message, just the subject line. If you see NT in the body of a message, it could mean "nice thread." Since I'm fairly new at this myself, those are the assumptions I've made.

About pictures ... if you know the web address where the picture is located, all you need to do is type the web address with the "http : / /" in front of it (without the spaces or quotes). The picture needs to be located somewhere else on the internet ... you can't paste it directly into a post.

Hope this helps!

:hi:

[chill factor]

45. Thank you so much!

You answered my questions - much appreciated. I look forward to your math posts - they are fantastic - solid arguing points on other blogs where Hillary supporters still have their head in the sand! Thank you for all of the hard work!!!! ;)

[phrigndumass]

46. You're welcome! Thanks for reading! n/t (see? I just used n/t!)

[grantcart]

58. here is a helpful glossary of DU slang

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_oet&address=358x190

[wowimthere]

39. K&R Good job. nt

[phrigndumass]

42. Thanks wowimthere!

:hi:

[me b zola]

40. K&R!

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

43. Thanks, mbz!

:hi:

[Texas Hill Country]

44. out of curiousity, where does the 5.5/1 caucus to primary weighting stat come from?

[phrigndumass]

48. It's turnout-by-population, average primaries vs. average caucuses

Based on estimated 2007 state populations.

Average turnout in all primary contests so far this year is 13.2% of population in those states, per primary votes.

Average turnout in all caucus contests so far this year is 2.4% of population in those states, per caucus votes.

13.2% is to 2.4% as 5.5 is to 1.

There is no accurate way to count "popular" votes in a primary nomination process because some states have primaries and some states have caucuses (some have both). Weighting adjusts for the majority of those inaccuracies.

The unweighted totals are also shown in the OP for comparison, for informational purposes only.

:hi:

[kmsarvis]

64. ANOTHER GREAT POST!!!!

:kick:
YOU SHOULD POST A THREAD DEVOTED SPECIFICALLY TO EXPLAINING THE FLAW IN COUNTING THE POPULAR VOTE WITH CAUCUS VOTE TOTALS UNWEIGHTED. I'VE TRIED TO EXPLAIN THIS TO SEVERAL PEOPLE ON DU BUT APPARENTLY I'M NOT VERY GOOD AT ARTICULATING MY POINT.:shrug:

[phrigndumass]

69. Thanks kmsarvis

A few DUers posted threads about the use of a "popular" vote in a primary election. I'll dig around, and if I find one, I'll link ya. Those threads might be worth another kick.

:hi:

[BzaDem]

63. It comes from arbitrarily saying "well we don't like how the turnout was so low."

So we are going to artificially inflate the turnout because we don't like it.

[kmsarvis]

66. YOU OBVIOUSLY DON' T UNDERSTAND HOW CAUCUSES WORK!!!!

THE TURNOUTS IN CAUCUSES ARE NOT LOWER BECAUSE OF A LACK OF ENTHUSIASM,THEY ARE LOWER BECAUSE THERE IS LESS TIME TO VOTE. ADDING CAUCUS AND PRIMARY VOTE TOTALS MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL UNLESS THE CAUCUS TOTALS ARE WEIGHTED.

[madrchsod]

73. your caps lock key is stuck....

or are you shouting?

[kmsarvis]

79. I DON'T LIKE LOWER CASE LETTERS,ITS AN OBSESSIVE COMPULSIVE THING!! N/T

[phrigndumass]

67. Feel free to use the unweighted totals, if that makes you feel more secure

They're right there in the OP, for everyone to see.

:hi:

[Zachstar]

47. K&R, Oh man the PA polling data is AWESOME. He has a chance to win!

But even if he loses it looks like he will keep it within 5 percent and reduce her delegate gain to small amounts.

So I look forward to see the math April 23!

[phrigndumass]

49. Wouldn't that be great?

Let's hope the rapture doesn't happen between now and 4/22 ...

:rofl:

[goclark]

106. I can't wait until April 23

I am almost ready to book my ticket

[dchill]

51. K&R

[phrigndumass]

55. Thanks dchill!

:hi:

[rox63]

52. K&R for all the work you put into the math n/t

[phrigndumass]

54. Thanks rox!

:hi:

Uncle Mark set me up with a Colombian sweatshop to do all this work for me. :sarcasm:

[L0oniX]

53. Kicking

[phrigndumass]

56. Kicking back atcha!

(pssst ... hi L0oniX) :hi:

[L0oniX]

57. Punt

:toast:

[phrigndumass]

59. Did you just call me a Punt? MMMMOOOOOooommmmmmm!!!

:hide:

:P

[L0oniX]

60. LOL

[Fyddlestyx]

61. K & R! Nice work!

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

68. Thanks Fyddlestyx!

:hi:

[grantcart]

62. 'when huckabee hits 50 phrigndumass better start looking at electoral college models

[phrigndumass]

65. when huckabee hits 50, I'm having it tattooed on my ass and spreading the pic on the internets

Think Toot on Drawn Together.

:crazy:

[cui bono]

71. Can't wait to see that!

On second thought....

[phrigndumass]

76. I'll redact it just for you! There'll be a black rectangle covering the naughties

:hi:

[cui bono]

82. I was more worried that you wouldn't airbrush out the hairyness.

;)

[phrigndumass]

85. LOL!

:spray:

oh, the things we talk about inside math threads ...

[madrchsod]

72. well i bow to your skills of figuring this out...!

looks like the bottom line is hillary has to win by huge margins to take the lead in delegates and popular vote

[phrigndumass]

75. You're exactly right! Thanks madrchsod

:hi:

[Radio_Lady]

78. K&R, of course. Number 45... and thanks again.

[phrigndumass]

92. Enjoy your evening, Ellen!

:patriot:

[ooglymoogly]

81. KR

[D23MIURG23]

86. K&R

[TheDoorbellRang]

87. Awesome as always

I've got another source I'd almost forgotten about but you'll enjoy. Remember the Obama campaign's spreadsheet that got "leaked to the press shortly after Super Tuesday? Here it is, and they seem to have done a pretty good job so far with their guesstimates.

According to their spreadsheet, they're anticipating winning exactly half -- 283 -- of the remaining pledged delegates.

[phrigndumass]

91. D-OH! And my mouth was watering, too!

:rofl:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

88. Sig changing time.

The Huckabee Index :rofl:

[phrigndumass]

94. Don't you think it has that little added benefit?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

95. Huckabee Index......63

63

[phrigndumass]

100. Read upthread ... two polls came out later today and bumped the 63 up to 66

My sig always has the most up-to-date hucknumber, so people will see it wherever I post.

:hi:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

102. Ah. Me thick.

Hucknumber :rofl:

Ya can't make this shit up! (Unless you're you) :thumbsup:

[Shine]

89. Wow. Excellent!! Nicely done! K & R

:applause:


:kick: :patriot:

[phrigndumass]

93. Thanks Shine!

:hi:

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

98. K & R. Thanks for posting this.

[phrigndumass]

101. You're welcome, and thanks!

:hi:

[mhoran]

103. Wow!

What an impressive amount of work. Thank you!

[phrigndumass]

119. Thanks mhoran!

:hi:

[GoneOffShore]

107. A late evening bump

Thanks for the work.

[ClayZ]

108. K and R Thanks!

[Rosa Luxemburg]

109. Super!!!

[FlyingSquirrel]

111. "

:)

[Name removed]

112. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

114. Kick!

[Apollo11]

115. So you don't deny that 14 million people already voted for Hillary to be the nominee.

Nor do you deny that it is still possible for Hillary to overtake Barack Obama in the total popular vote count across all 50 States (including Florida and Michigan which last time I checked were still part of the Union).

[phrigndumass]

118. Of course I don't deny that! Senator Clinton earned those votes.

However, read upthread about "popular" vote. Some states have primaries, and some states have caucuses (a couple have both). A primary vote and a caucus vote don't have the same weight. Votes in primaries-only are what we would consider a "popular" vote like we use in the general election.

Senator Clinton could win the most votes, but only if caucus states aren't counted. That's roughly one-third of all the states!

:hi:

[Unbowed]

116. K&R n/t

[Name removed]

121. Deleted message

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