Clinton stronger in the big 3 swing states (FL, PA, OH) that will decide the election

[jackson_dem]

To summarize, Obama bleeds away Democrat support and does poorly with whites. In Florida he gets 27% white support. Yes. 27%. Mondale got 37% en route to losing 49 states.

April 2, 2008 - Clinton Leads 50 - 41 Among Pennsylvania Democrats; Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Whites Give Clinton Lead In Key November Matchups: --- PENNSYLVANIA Democrats: Clinton 50 - Obama 41; FLORIDA: Clinton 44 - McCain 42; McCain 46 - Obama 37; OHIO: Clinton 48 - McCain 39; Obama 43 - McCain 42

-snip-

* Florida: Clinton 44 percent - McCain 42 percent; McCain beats Obama 46 - 37 percent;
* Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 39 percent; Obama gets 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent;
* Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 40 percent; Obama leads McCain 43 - 39 percent.

-snip-


"When it comes to November, Sen. Hillary Clinton's strength is a big edge over Sen. Barack Obama among white voters, who have not given a majority of their votes to a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute."

-snip-

"At least for now, Sen. Clinton's argument that she is the better general election candidate in these key battleground states appears to have some validity," said Brown. "In this survey, her strength among white voters is why she runs better against Sen. McCain than does Sen. Obama.

"Roughly one in five Democrats in the three states say they will vote for McCain against Obama, but less than 10 percent say they would vote for McCain over Clinton. Among white Democrats, 23 percent defect to McCain in a matchup with Obama, but only 11 percent defect when Clinton is the Democratic candidate." Pennsylvania

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1164

Crosstabs

Florida (27 electoral votes, 4th)

Clinton vs. McSame

Total: 44-42

Democrats: 78-9
Rethugs: 7-85
Indies: 36-45

(the poll only included whites in the crosstabs and divided them by gender)

White women: 46-41
White men: 41-60

Obama vs. McSame

Total: 37-46

Democrats: 61-20
Rethugs: 7-84 (Obamacons=a big campaign fairytale)
Indies: 35-45

White women: 27-52
White men: 28-57

Ohio (20 electoral votes, 7th)

Clinton vs. McSame

Total: 48-39

Democrats: 81-8
Rethugs: 6-88
Indies: 42-39

White women: 50-39
White men: 41-45

Obama vs. McSame

Total: 43-42

Democrats: 66-19
Rethugs: 10-83
Indies: 42-39

White women: 37-46
White men: 38-47


Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes, 5th)

Clinton vs. McSame

Total: Clinton 48-40

Democrats: 80-11
Rethugs: 8-83
Indies: 42-42

White women: 50-39
White men: 40-50

Obama vs. McSame

Total: 43-39

Democrats: 67-17
Rethugs: 11-77
Indies: 44-35

White women: 40-40
White men: 38-47

The margin of error is 3% for Florida, Ohio, and 2% for Pennsylvania.

One thing that data shows is Obama does better than Clinton in favorablity but performs worse where it counts. The chief reason for this is there are many people who like Obama but simply don't think he is experienced enough to perform the world's toughest job. The problem is he can't take "How to be President 101" over the summer if he is the nominee...

This is the latest in a line of polls that show Obama bleeding away an unusually high number of Democratic votes as well as struggled with whites. His performance with both groups is eerily similar to that of Walter Mondale, who won only 37% of the white vote and coughed up 24% of the Democratic vote to Reagan.

[AX10]

1. K & R!

[cliffordu]

2. Well.....You can spin this any way you want to.....

But she's TOAST,


:nuke:


and you are smart enough to know it

[jackson_dem]

4. If we are smart we will choose her. Choosing Obama is waving the white flag to McSame

[Hugabear]

9. If we're smart, we'll just say "to hell with primary results" and coronate Hillary

Let's just say "fuck you all" to everyone who voted in the primaries. Let's say "your opinion doesn't mean jack shit. You voted for a black man who we feel has no chance to win, so we're going to just override you and nominate Hillary instead."

Yes. Let's do just that.

[jackson_dem]

16. If he ends up with a popular vote lead that will be a huge dilemma

Would we rather win or rather honor the result of the primaries/caucuses, which were based on Obama getting a complete free ride from the msm? Tough call but the prospect of McSame in the White House is terrifying. Then again, selecting Clinton at the convention under a scenario may damage the party in the long-term. If we run Obama and lose we would be in great position in 2012 (a party staying in power for four teams is almost impossible).

[papau]

32. agree - she needs pop vote lead incl original FL/Mich results or it is over

[jackson_dem]

38. I agree and FL definitely will count while MI will be a toss up

If she has a popular vote lead including Florida (and it would take a series of landslides for her to win the popular vote without FL) then she has a very good chance. If she has a popular vote lead with FL and MI then she has a chance but it is a longshot. The only way I believe Michigan could come into play is if Obama's popular vote lead including Florida is something like 150,000 votes or less and an argument could be made that had Michigan revoted that would have erased the lead.

[cliffordu]

44. Untrue.

All she needs is the MSM to stop giving Obama a free ride, Right??

[cliffordu]

54. Here you go:

Why don't you figure a way to defend yet another failure of the truth bone??


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x115322

[kmsarvis]

46. ITS OVER THEN !!!!

THE IDEA THAT SHE CAN CATCH UP IN THE POPULAR VOTE IS A MSM PERPETUATED MYTH. EVEN WITH FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN COUNTED SHE WOULD STILL LIKEY BE DOWN BY BETWWEN 200,000-400,000 VOTES. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT YOU REALY CANT ADD PRIMARY AND CAUCUS VOTE TOTALS TOGETHER BECAUSE THEY ARE 2 DIFFERENT THINGS. THIS IS WHY WE GO BY DELEGATE TOTALS. TO GET AN ACCURATE POPULAR VOTE TOTAL YOU WOULD HAVE TO WEIGHT THE CAUCUS VOTES PROPORTIONALY, THIS WOULD GIVE OBAMA A SIGNIFICANT LEAD.

[BzaDem]

64. Nope. Both of those are myths.

With FL only, Obama's popular vote lead is 422 thousand votes. She can pick that up in PA, Puerto Rico, WV, and KY if she keeps the other states close. If you are up to actually reading facts, here is an article that lays it out.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent.html

With regard to your second myth, it is easy to combine primary and caucus results. How? It is actually quite simple. YOU ADD. For example, if Hillary gets 100,000 votes in a primary and 50,000 votes in a caucus, her total is 100,000 + 50,000 = 150,000.

Don't like how caucuses don't bring out as many people? Too fucking bad. If you want to start weighting voters higher that give you a result you like, then how about we weigh all primary votes 1.5 times as much because they don't undersample the elderly/disabled/veterans/soldiers/etc. Nope. No weighing votes. One person, one vote.

[kmsarvis]

83. BULLSHIT!!!!!

THERE WOULD BE ENOURMOUS PRESSURE TO WEIGH THE CAUCUS VOTE TOTALS ,HOWEVER IT IS REALLY A MOOT POINT BECAUSE OBAMA IS STILL LIKELY TO BE AHEAD IN THE POPULAR VOTE ANYWAY AND WE GO BY DELEGATE TOTALS NOT THE POPULAR VOTE.

[cliffordu]

41. Now I get it, it's all about a free ride from the MSM!!!

Well, shit. I'm changing my vote RIGHT NOW....oh, wait, I can't. DAMN YOU OBAMA!!!!!!

[RiverStone]

70. I don't see a dilemma at all

Neither do the SuperD's, who will flock to Obama long before this becomes an issue.

And your very right jackson, a convention fight (scenario) would damage the party for the long term.

I really think Obama would win anyway.

BTW, hypothetically of course, if Obama secures the nom - I assume you would be OK with Hillary as the VP? No clue if he would offer or is she would want...?

[riskpeace]

110. I understand you are being sarcastic.

Actually that is exactly what the DNC has done to this Democratic voter in Florida, as well as 1.7 million others in this state who voted in the Democratic primary.

[cliffordu]

14. Right. They said he couldn't last beyond Stupor Tuesday against

Clinton, either......

In how many races was she favored by 10 - 20 points and lost her ass???


Stay in the politics of the past - like saying some states don't count and that is what you get.

McCain is toast.

The only way he could win is with Jesus Christ as his running mate,

but Jesus ain't a NEOCON.

[jackson_dem]

21. Obama supporters are out of touch with political reality

Only Obamites think McSame will be a cakewalk. Clinton supporters realize it will be a dogfight. This is a reason why those who understand what we are facing are opting for Clinton...

[Hugabear]

23. Hillary is struggling against Obama - you really think she can take McCain?

If she can't win her own party's nomination FAIR AND SQUARE (ie without trampling the popular vote), then how is she going to convince the rest of America - moderate repukes and independents - to vote for her?

[jackson_dem]

28. As Obama surrogate Bob Casey said today, the primaries are not the same as the general election

Do you think McGovern was stronger than Humphrey as a GE candidate, Mondale stronger than Hart? Dukakis over Gore? Kerry over Clark?

[Captain Hilts]

56. She's gotten 400K more votes than BO from Democratic party primary voters. nt

[BzaDem]

39. Ugh. Will someone please let Obama supporters know that the primaries are NOT the same as the GE?

[Spider Jerusalem]

48. Of course they aren't the same, but a candidate has to WIN the primaries to get to the GE.

Clinton isn't winning the primaries, and is an extreme long shot to win the nomination. So speculation about how well she might do in a general election is really rather pointless.

[BzaDem]

66. You are arguing that because Obama survived Super Tuesday and narrowed big leads, McCain is toast.

That is crap. McGovern won his party's primary. He lost 49 states. Mondale won his party's primary. He lost 49 states.

The democratic primary process is set up to nominate candidates who aren't very electable. The payoffs are different. You can do well in areas that are overrepresented in the primary to win the primary, and then get creamed in the GE because of it. Thats why superdelegates were freaking created. Because the ability to win a primary is NOT an indicator of whether you can win a GE.

[Spider Jerusalem]

78. Point out where I made the argument, please.

I didn't, so don't put words into my mouth. The argument I'm making (which is a realistic one) is that there's almost zero chance of Hillary being nominated, so talking about her hypothetical GE chances is, to put it bluntly, wanking.

[BzaDem]

81. Sorry, the poster who I replied to made that argument. I thought that was you.

[kmsarvis]

84. MAYBE NOT...

BUT LOSING A PRIMARY IS AN INDICATION YOU WONT WIN THE GE.:rofl:

[cliffordu]

88. Fock, You are exactly right - I just heard Hillary say

"These damned grapes are sour......"

[cliffordu]

87. I'm who you were talking to:

Obama hasn't even started with the campaign against McCain yet.

When you finally "do the math" and realize what kinds of numbers of KIDS and OLD HIPPIES (like me) are coming out of the woodwork to vote for him, you might wake up and smell the Obamaroma.

You can play the 'what if' scenarios till McCain dies in the White House of old age but it won't change the fact that she really cannot win. If she could, she wouldn't be shouting "let all the votes count..." and then "The superdelegates need to make up their own mind at the convention" Which, oddly enough, negates all those votes she wants counted.

TOAST!!!!



:nuke:

[Alter Ego]

107. This argument coming from a Hillary supporter is making my brain hurt.

You DO realize that it's your camp that's been constantly arguing the "well she done winned the BIGGER states in the primaries and none a' them OTHER states should count!" talking point all along, right?

Give me a break.

[samsingh]

72. i thought Obama polled better against mcshame?

[PoliticalAmazon]

116. Hillary Clinton cannot win in the GE...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5280301&mesg_id=5281280

[bigbrother05]

3. Calling Acme moving Co.

[NJSecularist]

5. Obama puts CO, WI, IA, NV and NM in play

While Hillary will probably lose all 5 states. Not to mention she puts Washington and Oregon, Democratic strongholds, into play.

Obama isn't losing PA. He may lose Florida or Ohio.

[Avalux]

6. Why must things always be defined by what's happened in the past?

Wouldn't it be fantastic if those three states didn't even matter? It's possible, but for saying so I am sure I will be told to keep quiet.

[jackson_dem]

12. Math. Those states account for 25% of what is needed to win

They are especially critical for Obama given that he will lose the entire South (I consider Florida a lost cause with Obama). If you give the entire South and Pennsylvania and Ohio to McSame he is up to 199 electoral votes. Add Kentucky and Oklahoma, two semi-southern states (Obama is getting killed in Kentucky against McSame right now. He isn't even breaking 30%!), and McSame is up to 214. That leaves 324 electoral votes on the table and he would need to win only 17% of that to win. Basically Obama would have to run the table and there is nothing to suggest that right now.

[Avalux]

17. You are basing the math on old rules.

I don't expect the GE to be anything like what's happened in the past. It is impossible for you to make such a prediction.

[jackson_dem]

22. The old rules? It has been that way for a while. Show us how Obama gets to 270 without them

Flipping Colorado and North Dakota, mathematically, doesn't cut it...

[PseudoIntellect]

52. The poll you used said Obama can win PA and OH.

Clinton is certainly stronger in those states, but it's not like Obama can't win them, especially it has been shown that he can poll ahead of McCain.

The same could be said about Obama over Clinton. I could arbitrarily pick out three large states Obama is stronger in. He is stronger in WI, IL, and CA polls. And those state make up more electoral votes than the other 3. But I won't judge my entire case for the nominee on old polls in three states.

Both Democratic candidates can win.

[rodeodance]

33. The past is not dead. In fact, it's now even past. Willian Falkner

[Avalux]

99. If you're going to quote Faulkner, at least spell his name correctly. n/t

[shadowknows69]

104. Yeah, you really should stay away from any difficult quotes altogether.

[rocktivity]

7. As long as there are two Dem candidates to choose from

any head-to-head polling has one head too many.

GET THEE BEYOND ME, POLL!
UNCLEAN! UNCLEAN!!!!



x(
rocknation

[HCE SuiGeneris]

8. All Three !!!

23 more hours till the next spawn...

[OhioBlue]

10. First of all

As an Ohioan, it isn't only OH, FL and PA that will decide in Nov.

Second of all,
I am completely confident that OH will go blue in Nov for Obama.

the polls don't reflect what will happen in OH. The Dems in Ohio have prepared for this election. We went blue in '06, we will go blue in '08. We were embarassed in '04. We will work our asses off in '08.

Once we have our nominee and our Gov and Senator Brown and others stump for Obama, you will start seeing the polls shift a bit in the Dems favor. Once the Ohio Dem Party's machine starts working for Obama, you will see a huge shift. We have been having training sessions, our State Party has been improving and recruiting for this election. We have people in place, training being done and funds being raised. We just need our nominee.

We will kick ass in Nov.

[madfloridian]

11. New Rules? Making them up as you go along??

?

[QC]

13. Yeah, but he'll win Mississippi, Texas, Utah, and North Dakota,

so it doesn't matter.

[goldcanyonaz]

15. You forgot Nebraska, Wyoming and Alabama.

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Haw!

[QC]

24. And Montana! Ride 'em cowboy! n/t

[ProSense]

19. It doesn't matter because Hillary will not be in the GE. n/t

[rodeodance]

35. ha ha.. did you forget your sarcasm button??

[QC]

53. Goodness no. He will win North Dakota. A lot of people watched him make a speech.

That means he will win.

[Hippo_Tron]

18. It's April not October and an OH, FL, PA strategy is a surefire way to lose another election

We need to be looking at Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa. And given Obama's proven fundraising abilities and the fact that Clinton is in debt, I'm confident that he is the one who can raise the money to compete in more states.

[jackson_dem]

26. Do the math

Colorado has 9 electoral votes, Nevada and New Mexico 5 each, and Iowa 7. These states combined don't equal Florida. Missouri has 11 but Obama is getting killed there and running four points worse than Clinton. Virginia is a big prize at 13 but we have no shot there. Both candidate trail by double digits there.

The Obama argument is based on a myth. He doesn't change the electoral map and to cede Florida and Ohio for Nevada makes no sense.

Speaking of those states, Iowa and Colorado are the only two Obama brings real strength to the table. They do exactly the same in New Mexico. While Obama does 3 points better in Nevada it is dumb to cede Florida's 27 electoral votes for an extra 3 points for Nevada's 3 electoral votes, which both win.

Money alone can't buy an election. Obama is a fundamentally flawed candidate. How does he get around the experience issue? He can't...

[Hippo_Tron]

57. He gets around the experience issue by convincing the voters he is ready to lead

Voters don't make up their minds about these things in April, they decide in September and October, especially at the debates. I will give you that Hillary is a better debater than Obama. But there is an advantage to that in that he has lower expectations. Between now and November he could get some serious debate prep and absolutely blow away the pundits in the first debate. McLame isn't a great debater or an expert on much of anything but he claims that he knows everything about foreign policy and that will raise his expectations greatly.

You also dismiss likability and money as if they are no big deal. In reality they are pretty much the only reason that John Kerry isn't in the White House right now.

[bhikkhu]

58. The Obama argument is based upon solid projections

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

All he needs here is to hold on to what he has, and then to win CO, and he has 270. That is, if he can hold steady and gain only one more state before the GE, he wins the election. That is the math of the moment.

I think he will do quite a bit better myself (he's good at math, I hear).

[BzaDem]

77. Very shakey argument.

A large number of the states they have Obama winning are within the margin of error, and many of those polls are from over a month ago.

Demographics are a much more mathematically accurate way of predicting elections than polls. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent.html

That is a category that the electoral college does not yield to Obama.

[bhikkhu]

82. So we move the goal posts from the delegates, to the popular vote...

to the electoral votes, and now to demographics.

That will take some adjustment, as at each point we find that Hillary has no advantage over Barack, or Barack clearly wins. So the goal posts move. I will have to look into the demographic argument and get back to you.

[Hawaii Hiker]

109. Obama may be flawed, but so is McCain, big time

"How does he get around the experience issue? He can't"....

Well, alot of good Bush's experience as Governor of Texas did for him as president.....Experience is measured in more than just years spent in Washington...

John McCain doesn't have the temperment, & intelligence to be POTUS.....He's an old broken down mean-spirtied pug, who offers NOTHING but the third Bush term...

[BzaDem]

49. Seriously?

It's really amazing how people who keep citing "the math" when it comes to delegates can't understand math when it comes to adding electoral votes.

It would be a big accomplishment if he were able to flip any of those states you mentioned. A HUGE accomplishment to flip Virginia or Missouri.

But let's say he does it all. He pulls off an unprecedented win, winning Colorado, Virginia, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa. Thats 50 electoral votes.

Guess what. FL, PA, and OH are 68 electoral votes. I don't even know what else there is to say. He can win every single one of those states, ranging from republican leaning to strong republican, and still not even equal the electoral votes of FL, PA, and OH. If you step back into reality and realize he will probably only win 10-15 electoral votes out of those 6 states you mentioned, while simultaneously losing in at least 2 of FL, PA, and OH, a win is mathematically impossible.

[Hippo_Tron]

71. Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada were one point races last time...

Kerry would be President if he had flipped two out of those three and one of Colorado, Missouri, or Virginia.

And again, you don't realize just how important money is in all of this. If Obama out fund-raises McCain it is going to expand the map for Obama and constrict the map for McCain. McCain with his limited resources will likely concede New Mexico and Iowa to focus on defending Colorado, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Obama needs 1 out of the first group and 1 out of the second group and he wins.

[BzaDem]

74. You are assuming he wins PA like Kerry did.

That is very much up in the air. The demographics of PA do not suit him well at all.

You are again saying that it is easier to flip two close Repub states (possible, but shouldn't be assumed) AND one not close repub state (Colorado, Missouri, or Virginia) than it is to flip a very, very close swing state like Ohio (that Kerry might have won if it weren't for electoral shenanigans).

Money is important, but demographics are much more important. Despite Obamas huge fundraising and spending advantage over Clinton, this entire election county-by-county was directly correlated with demographics favorable to each candidate. (See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent.html).

And that doesn't even take into account Cindy McCain's HUGE personal wealth that they may use, or the huge wealth of 527 groups that will destroy Obama on Wright/Rezko/etc because he is unknown. Nominating an unknown candidate with the potential to be defined by these 527s, and whose demographics are not suited to winning the states that matter in the EC, is a losing proposition.

[Hippo_Tron]

91. A spouse can't spend their personal wealth on the campaign...

Kerry also has a rich wife and George Soros and other very wealthy Democrats gave money to 527's.

The potential to be defined over 527's, Rezko/Wright/etc are all things that can be countered by running a solid campaign. Bill Clinton looked like he was going to be defined by sex scandals about this time in 1992 but once America got to know him, he overcome it and was able to define the narrative of the campaign on his terms.

Frankly I think that nominating a candidate who 50% of the country doesn't like is a losing proposition. Ever since the invention of television, likability has been a factor in pretty much every election. Hillary's electability is entirely based on the assumption that this time around voters won't choose the candidate that they want to have a beer with. I think that is a faulty assumption.

[Spider Jerusalem]

20. What makes you think Florida is a swing state?

It's gone Democratic ONCE since 1968. It's a red state. Not a swing state.

[jackson_dem]

27. For one the OP reveals it is a swing state if we nominate Clinton

Here is its record, which shows it is clearly a swing state. Under your logic PA is not a swing state because it ultimately has went Democratic every election since 1992.

1992: Bush wins by 2%
1996: Clinton wins by 6%
2000: Gore wins
2004: Bush wins by 5%

[loveangelc]

25. OMG polls never change.

[jackson_dem]

29. good point. Obama once did far better than Clinton in general election performance

He could be down by 10 points by the convention if the slide continues--and the rethugs have yet to go after him.

[loveangelc]

89. The 'rethugs' have BEEN going after him. He's gotten most of the hate from the right

because they know he's going to be the nominee, and he's still standing. Guess what, Obama and the press have yet to go after all of McCain's stupid positions. Please, it will be easy once the general election comes along, McCain is a joke who has no idea that condoms help prevent STD's.

[Hawaii Hiker]

108. I agree McCain is a joke & I hope Democrats call him out on his

social conservative positions....He plays a moderate on TV, but he is a social conservative whose received endorsements religious radicals Hagee, Parsley, & the late Falwell.....But many people don't know this, cuz right now he's getting a free pass from the MSM....Hopefully, this pass will be revoked soon...

[QC]

31. True--Dukakis was way ahead of Bush for months. n/t

[Cali_Democrat]

30. Thats AWESOME

Now what we need the DNC to do is eliminate primaries in the other 47 states, because they don't really count. The only states that count are Florida, PA and Ohio.

[jackson_dem]

37. Read post 12. It is simple electoral math, something few Obamites seem to understand

Which is why they are supporting such a weak candidate. ;)

[bhikkhu]

69. Here is the current electoral math

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Barack and Hillary can both beat McCain in the GE, by just swinging one more state. You need an argument other than electoral math to favor Hillary over Barack, because they are essentially running even, by the figures.

[rodeodance]

40. tell that to the upcoming voters! of course Dean has been week. no telling what he will come up with

[Aussie leftie]

34. I agree with you

Its not who wins the most democratic votes in the primaries that count, its the one who is capable of winning the most disillusioned republican votes in November that is most important. Obama is preaching to the converted and he wont win the southern states.

[Spider Jerusalem]

45. HRC won't win those disillusioned Republicans, and she might win Arkansas, but that's it.

Her favourability ratings are well below 50%, and she's loathed by enough on the right that even those Republicans who are unenthusiastic about McCain would be more likely to turn up at the polls to vote against her.

[Captain Hilts]

61. Surveys show Ind. and R women will cross over to her - and they're just the ones that will admit it.

[Spider Jerusalem]

63. More women vote Democratic than Republican, anyway.

And are those going to be enough to offset the numbers of Republicans and independents who will be casting a vote not FOR John McCain but AGAINST Hillary Clinton?

[bhikkhu]

65. The OP is a false argument - look at the actual projections:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Either Hillary or Obama can win this by just holding on to what they have, by the projections, and swinging one more state. One more state! How many arguments have we heard that whichever candidate cannot win...they both are capable of winning!

[rodeodance]

36. k and r

[Blue_State_Elitist]

42. I'm sure you know this but

posts like this put you on the Obama tombstoning list. Watch out. ;)

[zulchzulu]

43. Can you do an OP where polls last June had Hillary Clinton's lead 25% ahead of everybody else?

Polls seven months before the votes are counted are about as useful as dried dog turds on your fruit salad.

[Milo_Bloom]

47. Clinton puts CA into play... in short, she can't win.

[Ichingcarpenter]

50. Let it sink....... this is intellectually dishonest statistics

which has been disproven in countless of polls.

[bhikkhu]

51. Here's how he wins

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

On the Obama map, he needs to hold steady with the projections, take CO (tied now), and he has 270. That is all he needs, according to today's projections. The "big swing states that determine the election" are not so necessary as they have been made to seem, but they are in play to go to Obama anyway, if you look not as the raw numbers but the trends.

Obama has picked up 108 projected electoral votes in the past week. This whole argument has over Obama's electoral vote problem has lost its base in reality.

[Name removed]

55. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[L. Coyote]

59. Forget the old formula about one or two states deciding the election. New territory in 2008

might look more like a Goldwater redux.

A real defeat for the GOP, the Corrupt Bastards Club, and Big Oil can sweep a lot of red states.

[DrFunkenstein]

60. Notice Texas Was Dropped...Soon To Be Followed By Pennsylvania

The rest of the country is DEAD TO ME!

[Auntie Bush]

62. Nice find Jackson.

I hope some super delegates read this and take it into consideration even at the risk of another "can't we all get along" incident.

[kmsarvis]

67. GOOD JOKE !!!!!

:rofl::applause::rofl:

[bhikkhu]

68. Except that it is a false argument

Look at the projections"

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Both Hillary and Obama can beat McCain in the GE - all either has to do is swing one more state. Anyone who says we can't hold on to what we have and then gain one more state by the GE is spreading noxious gloom!

[Ichingcarpenter]

73. It is past the point of delusion and hyperbole

No one can persuade Clinton to get out of the primary race. But by any metric imaginable, Obama has already won. The superdelegates aren't self-destructive enough to change that, and the sooner they line up behind Obama, the sooner Democrats can focus their fire on the real target: John McCain. Clinton can stick around, but the rest of the party will move on without her.

[bhikkhu]

79. It is hard to resist throwing facts into speculative arguments...

and hard to get used to how little difference they seem to make to anybody.

[jefferson_dem]

98. YAY! Who needs voters or caucusers? They don't count.

Let's have quinni-fucking-piac decide who our nominee should be.

Righteous.

[kwenu]

75. Old map. Old thinking. And Florida's likely going Red no matter who the nominee is.

[BzaDem]

80. As usual, Obama supporters cry foul when you assume away states, but then assume away FL

You are assuming away a close state like FL, while simultaneously saying we shouldn't assume away states we have consistently lost by 5-15 points. All because of this "new thinking." This "new thinking" is going to lead to an embarrassing loss.

[Awsi Dooger]

94. That is absurd

For months I read about a heralded 50 state strategy. Then the Florida/Michigan issue is dismissed with, "We never win Florida anyway, so forget about Florida."

[kwenu]

113. Okay. We'll win Florida! Feel better?

[MarjorieG]

76. Primary results from insurgent campaign, the GE now depends on us.

We are building a Dem Party, a movement, and I would like to give some of this enthusiams, activism and accountability a chance.

Whoever is the nominee, and looks to be Obama, there will be 527 groups. Heck, Ari Fleischer fronts a group supposedly financed by Bob "Swiftboat financier" Perry looking to spend $250 million to lie and keep Congress obstructionist.

Although there is Rev Wright, defended in media by pastors, we have Hillarys Ireland, Bosnia, Schip, her own Naftagate.

Do we defend or blame the nominee when not our first choice? Same as what happened in 2004, from the results of an ineffective Dem Party infrastructure, refusal to protect the vote before we went to th epolls (same as now), and an Ohio that would not permit a recount. After Bush v Gore, state trumps. Look to our databases and ID laws to cause problems.

Obama wants us to continue our commitment to goverment and supporting change, and participating like we haven't in years. We are realigning the party and making it relevant again. It takes time. He'd be better at the top of the ticket across the country.

[BlooInBloo]

85. I guess popular vote only matters to Clinton supporters when it's in their favor...

... When it's not, they'll just go make up any shit they can that "justifies" their support.

You really get the feeling they're trying to convince *themselves* more than they're trying to convince anyone else.

Have fun with your post-facto justifications!

[madfloridian]

86. Video of Hillary's statement accepting DNC rules...before she did not accept them.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x115322

Very sad

[ORDem]

90. This is just dumb, all within or close to the MOE and November is SEVEN MONTHS away!!

Fer crissakes!

:dem:

[BigBearJohn]

92. I wonder if Obama's popularity will hold once the GOP slime machine steamroller goes into full gear.

I can imagine the 527 ads the Repukes will put out.

The media has been relatively soft on Obama.
Once the primaries are finished, I think the media
will pull their carving knives out of their sheaves.

Do you really think the Republicans are that stupid?
What do you think they have been doing for the last 6 months?
You don't think they have spared no expense digging up
the darkest, smelliest dirt they can find on Obama?

Just wait until the 527's start the attack ads....

Slice 'em and dice 'em.

QUESTION: Will Obama remain as popular as he is
today once the Republicans hit him full-bore with
their no holds barred attack machine?

Talk about a baptism with fire. I have a sinking feeling
we haven't even begun to know the meaning of 'dirty'...
but we will -- we WILL.

Then let's re-visit the issue of poll numbers.

[AtomicKitten]

93. If we're going by arbitrary metrics, Obama is taller.

[PseudoIntellect]

95. Yeah, you know.

The reason Obama is not fit to be the nominee is that he is losing to Hillary in the states that Hillary is beating him in.

[AtomicKitten]

97. The reason Hillary isn't winning is because she is losing.

;)

[cascadiance]

103. Are we going to let voters decide this election or polls?

If polls aren't grossly inaccurate at times, then why didn't we do something at the time it could have meant a lot more (Ohio exit polls, etc.). They're not good enough to be used as a "check" against our votes. Now we want to use polls to REPLACE our vote? Sheesh!

[bowens43]

96. more deserate bullshit.......

you really are getting to be pathetic.

[Perry Logan]

100. Hillary or Obama, the Republicans are screwed. People are not going to forget the last eight years.

Plus there'll be a depression going on.

[Skidmore]

101. I think it is time for the whole nation to decide the president, and not

just give importance to one or two states. We have 50 states in this United States and if an election is conducted with all 50 states in mind, the people of the entire nation will have chosen. I believe it is fallacious to make pronouncements about the general election based on the fights of primaries. The GE campaigns will have their own set of dynamics and issues. This argument now about big swing states is premature at best and stupid at worst.

[polichick]

102. Old electoral map, old paradigm - irrelevant.

[Alter Ego]

105. WHITE PEOPLE HATE BARACK OBAMA

If I hear this one more time I'm going to e-strangle the perpetrator.

[SeaLyons]

106. K&R

:kick:

[Skwmom]

111. Without MASSIVE BLACK VOTER support, Dems can't win OH, PA or FL.

Good luck getting that if Clinton is crowned the nominee.

[snooper2]

112. And when she is not the nominee...

and they are polling just McWobble & Obama, all those numbers will change...

So, your post and assumptions are bullshit.....

[book_worm]

114. Obama's ahead of McCain in PA and Ohio and he does better than Hillary in Iowa, NM, WA, OR, CO, VA,

and Nevada. In fact, Hill loses Washington and Oregon--two blue states that have gone Democratic since '88.

[JayFredMuggs]

115. Don't tell the Hillary supporters THAT!

You know that THOSE OTHER STATES DON'T COUNT!!!