Forget the polls, check the markets

[Kadie]

Forget the polls, check the markets

JAMES K. GLASSMAN: Forget the polls, check the markets

Scripps Howard News Service
Last Updated 1:54 pm PDT Monday, May 31, 2004

(SH) - At this point, presidential polls are volatile and meaningless. In January, the Gallup survey had John Kerry leading George Bush, 55 percent to 43 percent; in March, Bush was ahead by precisely the same margin. Gallup's latest survey, on May 25, has Kerry leading, 49 percent to 47 percent.

There's another way to predict the winner, and, while it's not foolproof, it's proven far better that polling. Don't ask individual Americans for whom they'll vote if the election were today. Instead, ask traders on a specialized exchange - similar to a stock market - for whom America will vote on Nov. 2.

One such exchange is called the Iowa Electronic Markets, founded in 1988 by the University of Iowa College of Business (http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem). Anyone can trade by betting up to $500 to predict the outcomes of events like governors' races and Federal Reserve policy. Results have been uncannily accurate.

Academic papers have found that the IEM, on average, has whipped the polls soundly. For presidential elections, the IEM's margin of error on the brink of the vote was just 1.5 percent, compared with 2.1 percent for Gallup. Three-fourths of the time, the IEM has been more accurate than the average pollster.

more... http://www.sacbee.com/24hour/opinions/story/1404894p-8694258c.html

Check out:
IEM Iowa Electronic Markets
The Iowa Electronic Markets are real-money futures markets in which contract payoffs depend on economic and political events such as elections. These markets are operated by faculty at the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business as part of our research and teaching mission. We invite you to join us in this mission
http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

and
newsfutures.com Prediction Markets
http://us.newsfutures.com/home/home.html

[lancdem]

1. Interesting

But I still think Kerry will win. Even by this measure, Bush's vote share has declined from 53 to 51 percent, so it's getting closer.

[DaveSZ]

2. Hmm

Well the economy will probably continue to improve, so I guess that means Bush will appoint the next 3 SC justices.

Get ready for fascism.

:(

[DaveSZ]

3. Wait a minute:

"James K. Glassman is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and host of the Web site http://www.TechCentralStation.com."



How fair and balanced can this guy be?

[kimchi]

5. Good catch!

I was wondering who was behind it, also.

[dusty64]

4. chimp down two points

in about a month, wonder what they will look like in July? Not to mention the 1.5 margin of error which could mean another tie, I don't think that will happen though.