Is Nader siphoning votes from Bush too?

[smiley_glad_hands]

[FlashHarry]

1. He's funded by right-wing Republicans.

He holds high-level summits with the American Enterprise Institute. I seriously doubt he'll siphon any votes from GWB. He's beloved by the Right precisely because he siphons votes from the Left--primarily due to mathematically challenged, naively idealistic liberals who prefer to throw away their votes in some sort of bizarre show of anti-government protest.

[dedhed]

2. One can only hope!

Although, it's probably not happening frequently enough to cancel out the potential loss for Kerry's numbers.

:bounce:

[rogerashton]

3. That's what the polls seem to show.

n/t

[Sparkly]

5. Nearly always more from Kerry than Bush

effectively supporting the Chimp.

[smiley_glad_hands]

16. I was noticing that too.

When you take nader out of the equation it seems many polls show an increase by bush by a couple of points (not as much as kerry though).
On edit---could nader be attracting libertarian type republicans?

[AndyTiedye]

4. No way. Nader Only Takes Votes From Kerry

which is his entire reason for running. As Bush*'s poll numbers drop
into the 30's, Nader has made it clear that he really is running, and
the media have been playing up his candidacy to the max. We can expect
to see him in every pivotal swing state trying to convince Dems that
"voting their conscience" means voting for Nader and letting Bush* win again.

He doesn't need many, as long as they are vocal enough so that it doesn't
look totally bogus when the Diebold machinez give him enough of our
votes to re-install the usurper.

[H2O Man]

6. I'd be curious exactly

what evidence, including specific polls, exists which indicates Nader is taking any votes away from bush. I haven't seen anything that in any way supports this concept.

[Wapsie B]

7. I think there are enough disgusted repugs

out there who will vote for Nader instead of sitting home. I'd lay $$ on him taking more votes from chimpy than Kerry.

[H2O Man]

8. Interesting.

I believe that there are republicans who recognize bush is a danger to our nation and the world. I know of several who will be voting for Kerry, because: (a) he has a significant military background which will help him in resolving the Iraqi crisis; and (b) his economic policies are far more conservative than are bush's. Other than the idea of a "protest" vote -- and I've yet to meet a republican who willing throws his/her vote away -- I am curious what area of the Nader policy people think that republicans are likely to support?

[Jack Rabbit]

9. Polls I have seen suggest he siphoning a few Bush votes

The same polls suggest that for every vote he siphons from Bush, he siphons off about two or three from Kerry.

Otherwise, a positive thing about Nader running is that he gets some votes from people who would otherwise stay home.

Mr. Nader, please back out by Jack Rabbit (Democratic Underground, February 24)

[AP]

10. Every poll I've seen usually shows him taking 1% from each.

[fujiyama]

11. Yes, he does siphon a few

Most polls have showed that he siphons maybe one point from Bush and two or three from Kerry.

Most of those would be Bush voters are probably not very idealogical and are venting through Nader as a protest vote.

[pel]

12. Only in NY

[yellowcanine]

13. Yes but more from Kerry - may depend a little on the state. I suspect

that he sucks as many votes from * only in states that * is winning handily. So it would be best for Kerry if Nader stayed out.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

14. No

Nader takes almost no votes from Bush. Nader is diametrically opposed to Bush. There is no conceivable reason why a Bush supporter would go to Nader.

[mzmolly]

15. Actually there are a handfull of polls that suggest he takes a smallish

amount from Bush, but far more from Kerry.

[robbedvoter]

17. I remember the breakdown in 2000: 20% new voters, 20% GOP

The rest of 60% were all from Gore.

[funky_bug]

18. I was wondering the same thing after a radio bit...

My right-wing DJ was chomping at the bit the other morning... here in FL, Kerry is at 48, with Bush slightly behind him at 47. Nader has 5. I wonder exactly whose votes Nader is stealing?

[Zorra]

19. Why would a republican vote for Nader?

Nader's platform is totally anti-republican. It is designed to attract young, naive liberals who are not informed enough to realize that they are being scammed by a republican plant.

The right is using him to siphon votes from Kerry. The right may fund Nader, but they are not going to vote for him.

[lanparty]

20. Yes ...

Though I wouldn't claim to know the percentages.

A lot of Republicans, Libertarians UNWS and John Birchers who are unhappy with Bush but CANNOT bring themselves to vote for a DEMOCRAT will vote for Nader. I think you can count on a LOT less liberals voting for Nader this time around. They understand what the stakes are.

[JHBowden]

21. Half as much as he takes from Kerry.

For every vote Nader takes from the Republicans, he takes two away from the Democrats. The polling data was like this in 2000 too.

[bushwakker]

22. Stop spinning dude - he's hurting Kerry and you know it

[David Zephyr]

23. Bingo. Nader is Siphoning Votes From Bush, Too.

No doubt about it.

[Nicholas_J]

24. Actually,probably, yes

When you look at polls that give results both with or without nader, for every two points that Kerry drops as a result of Nader being included,Bush drops one point, so I would think that this indicates that some people are dunping Bush for Nader.

[Nicholas_J]

25. Actually,probably, yes

When you look at polls that give results both with or without nader, for every two points that Kerry drops as a result of Nader being included,Bush drops one point, so I would think that this indicates that some people are dunping Bush for Nader.

[Zorra]

26. This story was posted on another thread.

It says Nader pulls very few votes from Bu$h.

The DontVoteRalph.net study looked at every poll — since Nader entered the race this time — that measured Bush and Kerry head-to-head as well as a three-way race with Bush, Kerry and Nader. Of the 37 such polls, Nader pulls votes directly from Kerry in 32 and four show no difference. Only one, a Fox News poll, shows Nader pulling votes from Bush by 1%. These results also happen to be consistent with exit polls from 2000 which showed that Nader voters would have voted for Gore twice as often as for Bush.

There is a certain "duh" factor to the study. Who seriously believes that Nader has any strong appeal to conservatives? Sure, his platform includes positions some fiscal conservatives might support; but his Green Party background, lack of Christian credentials, liberal social agenda, anti-corporate themes and reputation as a "tree hugger" all render him an unlikely choice for conservatives. Angry at Bush or not, the idea that conservatives will storm the polls for Nader is about as silly as the idea that Democrats will defect to, say, Pat Buchanan, because he opposed the Iraq war. In any case, intuitive arguments are just that; the poll numbers speak for themselves.

http://www.alternet.org/story.html?StoryID=18828