Indianapolis poll has Kerry leading Bush

[democraticinsurgent]

A new poll of Marion County (Indianapolis) voters by Howey Political Report/TeleResearch shows some surprisingly good numbers for Democrats. Marion County is probably slightly Democratic but not by much. The Republicans held the Mayor's office for 32 years straight, until Bart Peterson was elected in 1999. In this poll Bush has a shockingly low 38% approval rating. That's very low in a county that's split fairly even between R's and D's.

These results also contrast sharply with the statewide Indianapolis Star poll released last week showing Kerry trailing by 20 points or so. If Kerry wins Indy by this margin he has a shot to win Indiana. Now that would be fun.

President:

George W. Bush, Republican 39%

John Kerry, Democrat 47%

Ralph Nader, Independent 5%

Uncertain 9%

Among Independents Kerry leads Bush by 49% to 30%.

Governor:

Mitch Daniels, Republican 37%

Joe Kernan, Democrat 49%

Uncertain 14%

Among Independents Kernan leads by 47% to Daniels 29% leaving 24% undecided

[NNadir]

1. I missed the -polis part of your post on first read. I have a weak heart.

I shouldn't do that to myself.

If Bush starts trailing in Indiana, well, hell, we might even carry Alabama.

[democraticinsurgent]

3. could happen though

i'm no expert on this but if Kerry were to win Indy by 8 points I think he'd have a real shot at the whole state. If you look deeper into the poll you see that 35% polled were R's but Bush only gets 38%. That means he's not getting much of anything beyond the R's. If that were to hold true throughout the state he'd lose!

[Jack Rabbit]

2. Question

Historically, Democratic presidential candidates run better in urban areas than in rural areas. I once had a polisci professor who demonstrated that in certain key states, the Democrat ran consistently a certain percent better in the largest city than in the state as a whole. For example, the Democratic candidate always runs about 20% better in Chicago than all of Illinois.

How does that bear out for Indianapolis vs. all Indiana?

[democraticinsurgent]

4. that's true here as well, but...

Indy used to be a Republican stronghold until quite recently. The out migration to collar counties has finally resulted in a slight majority for Dems in Indianapolis. The rural and suburban/collar areas are solidly R but then there is Gary and South Bend, both heavy D, and smaller cities like Terre Haute and Muncie, which are reliably D.

I think the state is probably R overall by a small margin, but with an increasing number of independents, the R base is probably not larger than 45%. Bush would have to do well with independents to avoid a close one here. And the above poll doesn't show him doing well with independents, at least in Indianapolis.

Indiana has also lost about 200,000 jobs since Bush took office. Manufacturing is in a tailspin and this state has never done well with hi-tech; instead the workforce is being Walmartized. So there is a lot of anger here.

[Jack Rabbit]

5. Thank you

And welcome to DU.

[AwakeAtLast]

6. I think we are proof

Two newbie DUers from Indiana could correlate to bigger things. I think there are more of us out there (in Indiana), we just have to look harder.

From one newbie to another, welcome! Glad to know I am not alone in this area!

[lanparty]

7. Lafayette

After SIA shut down, it will go anti-Bush GUARANTEED!!!! Northwest Indiana and Terra Haute will go AGAINST Bush. It's the Southern Indiana folks who will need some convincing. Hopefully, the IU student body can help us out with that ;-)


Speaking of high-tech. Indiana is being de-techified. The techies are angry. All that stuff matriculates through the economy. Look for a LOT of moderate converts in the Indy burbs of Carmel, Fishers, Zionsville, etc... (Geist will still vote Republican ;-)

[liberalpragmatist]

8. Um - don't count on Carmel

Carmel's as Republican as it gets. We don't even have Democrats running for office. Our congressman is Dan Burton. Don't get me wrong - it's a nice place, with lots of space and I'm sure there are SOME liberals, but they're probably no more than 25% and they're mostly moderates.

It's funny - Carmel has lots of upscale, educated professionals - the types that are leaning Dem. But this is Indiana, and unlike other states, that hasn't happened. Family ties go way back and many people have spent their entire lives in Indiana and are firmly Republican, even if they're not that religious.

[sandnsea]

9. Reach out to rural areas

I live in rural Oregon and I have to fight tooth and nail to get info down to me. Portland, Salem and Eugene simply do not do enough reaching out to the rural areas. At least not that I've seen. We've got to be connected so we can start rolling out here. I'm going to fight to make sure that happens this year, but if one person in the city took responsibiity for one rural town, (just make sure you call them once a week), it could make all the difference. And small business. Health care will HELP them, not hurt; energy costs and new incentives to implement new technology; new tax cuts; payroll tax credits for new employees; lots of ways to reach those voters. And even the farmers, they WANT somebody to take on corporate ag, refer to Iowa.

We can do this, we've just got to work together and rely on each other, learn from each other.

Indiana, that would be amazing!

[lanparty]

10. Agreed

We have to fan out and educate rural voters on the ways Bush is ramrodding them up the backside while talking nice to them. The ONLY people with a legitamite reason to vote for Bush live in gated communities.

[Voltaire]

11. I would be happy keeping IN from turning red until 8:30

on election night. But if we can win Marion County that could be a trendsetter for the rest of the state. I will be happy with a vote that is not posted up as soon as the polls close but if Kerry could take Indiana I would dance around Monument Circle naked.