THE MATH – Monday, March 31 – After Texas Counties

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH – Monday, March 31 – After Texas Counties

6:00 p.m. Eastern Time (US)

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,023.5 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 2,669.0 of 3,235.0 – 82.5%

********************************************

THE MAGIC NUMBER

Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below:

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 88 of 310 remaining superdelegates needed, or 28.4%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 241 of 310 remaining superdelegates needed, or 77.7%

The Huckabee Index – 69 or 22.3% of remaining superdelegates needed

The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)

Details in spreadsheet: http://www.box.net/shared/gr4wooy040

********************************************

TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of March 31:
Hillary Clinton – 1,505.5 (518.0 short)
Barack Obama – 1,646.5 (377.0 short)
Remaining Delegates – 877.0
(Sources: NBC, Wikipedia 3/31/08)
Wikipedia link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Hillary Clinton – 255 (Source: NBC 3/31/08)
Barack Obama – 228 (Source: NBC 3/31/08 plus NC-6)
Remaining Superdelegates – 311

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of March 31:
Hillary Clinton – 1,250.5
Barack Obama – 1,418.5
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 566.0
(Source: Wikipedia 3/31/08)

OVERALL CONTESTS WON

Hillary Clinton – 15
Barack Obama – 30

PRIMARIES WON

Hillary Clinton – 12
Barack Obama – 16

CAUCUSES WON

Hillary Clinton – 3
Barack Obama – 14

BLUE AND RED STATES WON

Hillary Clinton – 6 Blue, 8 Red
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 16 Red

POPULAR VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Total weighted* popular vote as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 15,802,692 (+1,755,095)
Hilary Clinton – 14,047,597
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes

Status Quo unweighted as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 13,679,402 (+821,164)
Hillary Clinton – 12,858,238
(Source: Wikipedia 3/31/08)

Primaries only (Status Quo) as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 13,208,232 (+614,296)
Hillary Clinton – 12,593,936

Caucuses only weighted* popular vote as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 2,594,460 (+1,140,799)
Hilary Clinton – 1,453,661
*Weighted popular vote adds primary votes and 5.5:1 skew of caucus votes

Caucuses only (Status Quo) unweighted total caucus votes as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 471,170 (+206,868 caucus votes)
Hillary Clinton – 264,302
(IA,NV,AK,AS,CO,ID,KS,MN,NM,ND,NE,VI,WA*,ME,HI,TX*,WY,Guam)

With Florida only added, weighted as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 16,378,906 (+1,460,323)
Hillary Clinton – 14,918,583

With Florida only added, unweighted as of March 31:
Barack Obama – 14,255,616 (+526,392)
Hillary Clinton – 13,729,224

With Michigan only added, weighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 15,802,692 (+1,426,786)
Hillary Clinton – 14,375,906
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Michigan only added, unweighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 13,679,402 (+492,855)
Hillary Clinton – 13,186,547
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, weighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 16,378,906 (+1,132,014)
Hillary Clinton – 15,246,892
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

With Florida AND Michigan added, unweighted as of March 31*:
Barack Obama – 14,255,616 (+198,083)
Hillary Clinton – 14,057,533
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 236 of 311, or 75.7% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 232 of 312, or 74.2% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 224 of 323, or 69.2% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 220 of 324, or 67.7% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 95 of 311, or 30.4% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 112 of 312, or 35.7% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 99 of 323, or 30.5% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 116 of 324, or 35.6% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

********************************************

SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 207 of 311, or 66.4% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 203 of 312, or 64.9% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 195 of 323, or 60.2% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 191 of 324, or 58.8% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 124 of 311, or 39.7% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 141 of 312, or 45.0% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 128 of 323, or 39.5% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 145 of 324, or 44.6% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

*********************************************

FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES

These are the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. The presumption here is that most remaining superdelegates will support the candidate who wins the most pledged delegates from the state and territory contests. (Note: All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.)

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

The current status quo is: Neither Florida nor Michigan’s slate of delegates are seated. (See more below this section for information about what the “status quo” is)

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
CLINTON NEEDS 64.8%, OBAMA NEEDS 35.2%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 10 – Florida Half-count, Michigan not seated
CLINTON NEEDS 63.2%, OBAMA NEEDS 36.8%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 11 – Florida not seated, Michigan Compromise
CLINTON NEEDS 64.0%, OBAMA NEEDS 36.0%, in all remaining contests

Scenario 12 – Florida Half-count, Michigan Compromise
CLINTON NEEDS 62.3%, OBAMA NEEDS 37.7%, in all remaining contests

********************************************

POLLS FOR UPCOMING CONTESTS, USED TO DERIVE THE “MAGIC NUMBER”

Polls have been released for some of the upcoming contests. Where no polls are available, I have marked it as “No Poll” and used a 50/50 calculation for that contest’s pledged delegates. Obviously this information will change, and I plan on updating these calculations whenever we have new or updated polls.

Pennsylvania (April 22)
American Research Group (3/27) has Senator Clinton at +12.0%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Guam (May 3)
No Poll

Indiana (May 6)
USA Election Polls (2/18) has Senator Obama at +15.0% (This was after Super Tuesday)
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/indiana.html

North Carolina (May 6)
Public Policy Polling (3/31) has Senator Obama at +18.0%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_033108.pdf

West Virginia (May 13)
Rasmussen Reports (3/20) has Senator Clinton at +28.0%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/west_virginia/west_virginia_democratic_presidential_primary

Kentucky (May 20)
No Poll

Oregon (May 20)
Outdated Poll (before Super Tuesday)

Puerto Rico (June 1)
No Poll

Montana (June 3)
Outdated Poll (before Super Tuesday)

South Dakota (June 3)
No Poll

If anyone has links to new or more recent polls, please share. Thanks!

********************************************

MEMO FROM DNC DATED MARCH 5 REGARDING FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN

This is quoted here to show the current “Status Quo” used in the figures above.

Democratic National Committee’s official stance on Florida and Michigan as of March 5, in a press release from Howard Dean:

"We're glad to hear that the Governors of Michigan and Florida are willing to lend their weight to help resolve this issue. As we've said all along, we strongly encourage the Michigan and Florida state parties to follow the rules, so today's public overtures are good news. The rules, which were agreed to by the full DNC including representatives from Florida and Michigan over 18 months ago, allow for two options. First, either state can choose to resubmit a plan and run a process to select delegates to the convention; second, they can wait until this summer and appeal to the Convention Credentials Committee, which determines and resolves any outstanding questions about the seating of delegates. We look forward to receiving their proposals should they decide to submit new delegate selection plans and will review those plans at that time. The Democratic Nominee will be determined in accordance with party rules, and out of respect for the presidential campaigns and the states that did not violate party rules, we are not going to change the rules in the middle of the game.”

Source: http://www.democrats.org/a/2008/03/dean_statement_45.php

(emphasis mine)

********************************************

BROKERED CONVENTION

Feel free to share your thoughts and concerns about a possible brokered convention this year. I’d love to hear thoughtful conversation from all sides.

Link here from wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

********************************************

OFFICIAL DELEGATE SELECTION RULES FOR THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION

The link below takes you to the pdf file from the Democratic Party with the official rules for this year’s primary season.

Link here from democrats.org:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/apache.3cdn.net/de68e7b6dfa0743217_hwm6bhyc4.pdf

.

********************************************

Links to the spreadsheets (feel free to download and create your own scenarios):
1 – Current Figures: http://www.box.net/shared/bmi4rvqscs
2 – Magic Numbers: http://www.box.net/shared/gr4wooy040

********************************************



Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.



.

[phrigndumass]

1. Granting permission to use this information here on DU and on internet

I am granting permission for everyone to use any of this information, in whole or in part, in other threads here on DU, and anywhere on the internet.

- phrigndumass

[phrigndumass]

2. Link to my journal

For past editions, click on the link to view my past journal entries:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

[Radio_Lady]

89. Wow! I could have used you as a math tutor in days gone by...

I'm impressed, and thank you!

Cordially,

Radio Lady Ellen

[phrigndumass]

92. Thanks Ellen!

Noticed you like horseback riding ... do you own horses? We have three appaloosas.

:hi:

[Radio_Lady]

97. Funny you should ask... we don't own horses, but I'm looking at a possible volunteer opportunity!

This place is just a couple of miles from me in the Willamette Valley (rural area) of Oregon.
They are looking for volunteers, too. I would get some good exercise this summer while helping with "therapy equines"! Get away from this infernal election.

We'll see! :hi:

www.forwardstride.org

This is Twister:

[phrigndumass]

103. Sounds like great exercise!

I bet Twister and Friends would like that, too!

Riding horses as therapy is just catching on around here in Illinois. My twin sister, a counselor, wants to buy a small ranch and offer that as part of the therapy she provides to differently-abled children. She's trying to come up with the needed funds. Horses ain't cheap!

[Demeter]

137. Horse Riding Made a Big Difference for My Autistic Daughter

It was the first time she'd smiled in years...she'd asked to learn to ride, and she was 7 years old.
I even got on a horse--it wasn't bad.

[phrigndumass]

140. That's great!

It helps some children learn that they "can" do things, instead of constantly being reminded they can't do some things the same way as other kids. Plus, it's fun!

:dem:

[Demeter]

147. I Think It Was The First Thing She Ever Really Wanted That Was Real

Reality is a hard thing for some on the spectrum.

[phrigndumass]

188. Wow, that's heartening

:loveya: :loveya: :loveya: for your daughter! :loveya: :loveya: :loveya:

[K Gardner]

3. Great info, as usual.. thank you !

[phrigndumass]

15. Thanks KG

:hi:

[Greyskye]

4. amazing work as usual

:kick: & R

[phrigndumass]

16. Thanks Greyskye

:dunce:

[grantcart]

5. thank you I expect a lot of small changes in numbers this week

Texas + 3

Mississippi Obama +1

super delegates

[phrigndumass]

18. Texas +3? Hope so!

I thought Senator Clinton gained 1 pledged delegate back over the weekend.

Thanks grantcart!

:hi:

[SpiralHawk]

6. Take a seat, Hillary

You are:

[phrigndumass]

20. Someone shared a link to the Clinton campaign's new theme song ...

Funny as hell:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ru_FIwX1tb8

[Khaotic]

116. Toast ... Gee, ya think?!!!

[stop the bleeding]

as usual great work phrigndumass

:beer:

[phrigndumass]

21. Thanks stb

:toast:

[futureliveshere]

7. So BO can afford to concede MI and FL and still come out ahead

Great post.. K&R

[totodeinhere]

14. Yes, that's the dirty little secret that the Clinton people don't want you to know about.

[phrigndumass]

85. Well the cat's outta the bag now!

:rofl:

I wonder ... how did that phrase get started? A cat inside of a bag is a secret thing, but once the cat gets outside of said bag, the secret is no longer secret. Do the cats know this? Are the cats waiting for the precise moment when a secret becomes known to jump out of a bag? How do they know? And what kind of a bag is it? Burlap? Plastic? I'd recommend they don't use a plastic bag, first off because it's bad for the environment, and secondly because it might cut off the cat's air supply. Oooh, Air Supply! o~ I'm all out of love, I'm so lost with-OUT you o~

/end obsess

:hi:

[SwampG8r]

129. history lesson on cats in bags

pigs at small markets would be sold in what was known as a poke sack
if you didnt check you would be buying a "pig in a poke" or property you had not visually confirmed as your intended purchase
some unscrupulous vendors would place a cat into a poke sack in an attempt to defraud customers
if a customer opened the sack to check he would not buy a "pig in a poke" but he might possibly "let the cat out of the bag"

[phrigndumass]

142. I'm saving that! Pig in a poke, and cat out of the bag ...

I love little tidbits of history like this!

Now I need to start obsessing about "pig in a blanket" ... :silly:

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

82. You're right, but he has the agreed-to DNC rules on his side

Thanks for the rec!

:hi:

[futureliveshere]

100. The post was def worth it. Thnx for it.

[phrigndumass]

105. You bet!

:dunce:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

8. 2+2 still equals 4.

[phrigndumass]

22. "As far as I know"

Is that the Unknown Comic in your sig pic?

:dunce:

[RichardRay]

68. Even for exceedingly small values of 2.... n/t

[featherman]

9. Great stuff... thanks

[phrigndumass]

23. Thanks for reading, featherman

:hi:

[featherman]

30. I'm a numbers guy and come here for stuff like this

[Growler]

10. Thank you for your hard work n/t

[phrigndumass]

25. Thanks Growler, it does take some time

Thanks for reading!

:hi:

[Georgie_92]

11. Thanks for all your work!

[phrigndumass]

26. Thanks for reading, G92 ...

:hi:

[berni_mccoy]

12. Nominated.

[phrigndumass]

27. I feel like Sally Fields ...

You LIKE me, you REALLY LIKE me ...

Thanks berni_mccoy!

:dunce:

[Cha]

31. We like you and your

numbers. :*

[phrigndumass]

79. LOL Thanks!

:blush:

[DerekJ]

13. Explain to me how did the popular vote jump up to 1.7 Million?!!

Not that I a complaining of course :)

Also, Did you see the new data about Mississippi?

[phrigndumass]

28. It's weighted, but I also showed the unweighted total

Adding caucus votes and primary votes together is ridiculous. You have to weight the caucus votes with turnout-by-population to make caucus votes comparable to primary votes to arrive at a total popular vote. The primary votes are skewed by 5.5 to 1 as compared to caucus votes, based on turnout-by-population.

Didn't see the Mississippi data yet, but I'll add that into the next post.

Thanks DerekJ!

:dunce:

[kmsarvis]

34. ISNT OBAMA LIKELY TO FINISH............

AHEAD IN THE POPULAR VOTE UNWEIGHTED? LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS IT LOOKS LIKELY. IS THE MSM LIKELY TO WEIGH THE POPULAR VOTE TOTALS?

[phrigndumass]

38. There would be a huge argument for weighting the PV ...

Because the counts would be highly flawed without it. Caucus votes and primary votes are not the same thing. Primary votes are skewed by 5.5 to 1 of caucus votes.

:hi:

[DerekJ]

49. That;s what I am missing, What do you mean by that?!!

Talk Math, I am an Electrical Engineer.

Edit: typo

[phrigndumass]

56. Here's some quick-reads for ya, DerekJ

From my journals ... it's all mathy, the way you like it!

"Why Popular Vote Could Never Be an Accurate Reflection of the Will of All Voters in a Primary":
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5110367

"TURNOUT and Senator Clinton's Best-Case Scenario for Popular Votes":
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5158791

:hi:

[apocalypsehow]

17. K & R.

n/t.

[phrigndumass]

66. Thanks apocalypsehow

:hi:

[helderheid]

19. k&r!

[phrigndumass]

67. Thanks helderheid

:dunce:

[helderheid]

126. :D

[housewolf]

24. k

[Redbear]

29. It seems that the only scenario in which Sen. Clinton

has a realistic chance is the seating of Michigan and Florida as is.

[phrigndumass]

32. You're right, and that's only if you use popular vote in a highly flawed way

Weighting gives us the real popular vote, based on turnout-by-population.

:hi:

[kmsarvis]

39. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF OBAMA WINNING THE .......

POPULAR VOTE UNWEIGHTED?

[phrigndumass]

43. Still extremely good. It would take 100% turnout in all upcoming contests ...

... or a 65% average for Clinton in each remaining contest to keep it from happening.

[kmsarvis]

54. I LIKE THOSE ODDS....

IM GLAD YOU HAVE ADDRESSED THE FLAW OF JUST LOOKING AT THE POPULAR VOTE TOTALS.

[panader0]

33. The most concise info yet on this math problem. Rec'd!

[phrigndumass]

40. Thanks panader0!

:patriot:

[sonias]

35. I like math and I like magic numbers

We have the power - to change - yes we can!


Sonia

[phrigndumass]

44. The math and magic numbers like you right back!

I asked them, that's what they said, as far as I know.

:headbang:

[tammywammy]

36. Recommended

[phrigndumass]

45. Thanks tammywammy

That's my sister's nickname as well ...

:hi:

[BumRushDaShow]

37. K&R

Thanks for your usual great effort!! :thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

71. Thanks BumRushDaShow!

:hi:

[Unbowed]

41. Here's a bump & a rec.

Thanks for doing the work on this.

[phrigndumass]

46. Thanks Unbowed

:dunce:

[dchill]

42. Kick!

and recommend.

[phrigndumass]

47. Thanks dchill

:hi:

[TheDoorbellRang]

48. Three cheers for THE MATH

:toast: :toast: :toast:

Thanks for keeping us up to date on this.

[phrigndumass]

51. Thanks TheDoorbellRang ...

Cheers!

:toast:

[phrigndumass]

50. Link to info about the "Michigan Compromise" here

MICHIGAN DELEGATE COMPROMISE OFFERED

Source: AP, as reported on MSNBC.com

Read more: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23882892/

<Snip>

Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., in a letter to DNC Chairman Howard Dean, proposed that Michigan's 83 pledged delegates be chosen at congressional district conventions according to the results of the state's primary.

...

Under Stupak's formula, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who received 55 percent of the primary vote, would receive 47 delegates.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who pulled his name from Michigan's ballot, would receive 36 delegates. Many Obama supporters in Michigan voted for "uncommitted," which received 40 percent in the primary.

The remaining 73 delegates would be awarded based on the percentage of the popular vote garnered nationwide by Clinton and Obama after the last Democratic presidential primary is completed.

<end Snip>

Don't know if this will pass, but if the "compromise" changes, I'll change my figures as well.

[panader0]

52. When Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot. Where is fair?

[phrigndumass]

72. It's a compromise, but we'll have to see if the idea gains traction

The Michigan delegation wants to be seated "somehow" ... and it's too late to have a revote. Since the Michigan delegation won't be seated as is, from the January results, a compromise solution would definitely be considered by the DNC rules committee, according to Chairman Dean.

:dunce:

[Buzz Clik]

55. This really isn't that bad of a deal.

[phrigndumass]

57. True, it amounts to 83 for Clinton, and 73 for Obama in Michigan

That's probably close to what it might have been, if Senator Obama had been on the ballot.

[Buzz Clik]

53. Thanks for sharing the spreadsheets. I look forward to pushing the numbers around the page.

[phrigndumass]

61. Let me know whatcha come up with!

Go ahead, give Senator Clinton 100% in a state or two, just for kicks and grins.

:hi:

[ElsewheresDaughter]

58. your sources are hilarious!!!

fucking Wiki and your own box.net files ROFLMAO

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[phrigndumass]

60. noise

:thumbsdown:

[phrigndumass]

200. Found it!

[Buzz Clik]

69. You missed a few, Sherlock.

[phrigndumass]

80. That there was a drive-by maroon ...

:tinfoilhat: :freak:

Bet she had to hurry up and post so that scary math wouldn't jump out and eat her brains. Do zombies have brains? Just askin' ...

[jettison]

190. a pointless expletive

... another Hillary supporter. Is it only me that sees this pattern on DU? Granted, I'm new here so perhaps I've just missed all of the Obama folks who use a healthy dose of LOLs mixed in with expletives to get a point across. The points don't even get countered most of the time. They are just openly mocked with no actual challenge of the date.

[phrigndumass]

191. Exactly! It happens sometimes on both sides, unfortunately

That's why I call it "noise."

Welcome to DU, jettison!

:hi:

[Window]

59. Excellent! Thank you for sharing this info.

:kick:

[phrigndumass]

62. Thanks Window!

:dunce:

[Window]

76. You are welcome. This is exactly what I've been looking for.

:kick:

[GoneOffShore]

63. Thanks for the numbers

Lots of hard work here. It's appreciated.

[phrigndumass]

65. Thanks for reading, GoneOffShore

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

64. KENTUCKY SurveyUSA poll shows Clinton at +29.0%

Just out today from SurveyUSA, according to politicalwire.com:
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/03/31/surveyusa_obama_not_competitive_in_kentucky.html

However, and this is the funny thing, it only changes the Huckabee index by +6 (was 69, now 75).

Now if they would only get those polls out for Oregon and Montana ...

[phrigndumass]

102. Looks like TEXAS is 99-94 Obama ... I had it at 98-95 ...

So another +1 for Senator Obama. AP is breaking the story that Senator Obama won Texas. It's official!

:woohoo:

[AlinPA]

70. Thanks a million. nt

[phrigndumass]

74. You bet!

Thanks for reading, AlinPA!

:hi:

[JBoy]

73. You've sliced & diced this every possible way. No matter how you slice it

it point to an Obama win.

[phrigndumass]

77. Slicing, you mean like toast?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ru_FIwX1tb8

:toast:

[Khaotic]

119. Ha! Ha! Ha! ... TOAST!!!!!

[Fyddlestyx]

75. Nice work!

K & R :kick:

[phrigndumass]

78. Thanks Fyddlestyx

Welcome to DU!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

81. Only a few more recs to make it to Greatest Threads

Thanks everyone!

:dunce:

[frog92969]

83. K&R

I love math!:thumbsup:
It's so brutally honest.

[phrigndumass]

84. It's impossible to argue with it!

Thanks!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

90. Well lookie there ...

It's on the front page under Greatest Threads.

Thanks to everyone for helping this thread become easier to access!

:woohoo:

[bonzotex]

86. great work. thanks! n/t

[phrigndumass]

88. Thanks bonzotex!

:hi:

[Scurrilous]

87. K & R

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

143. Thanks Scurrilous!

:hi:

[redsoxrudy]

91. Bravo!!

What a great post. i love it when numbers and logic just wrap up a complex problem in a nice, neat bow!! I am not surprised at the lack HRC supporters on this thread. It is too hard to crunch numbers with sniper bullets whizzing overhead.

[phrigndumass]

94. LOL

:spray:

Thanks redsoxrudy!

[Lucky 13]

93. Thanks for posting this. Some will ofcourse deny these numbers to be truth...

... but people also argued for centuries that the world was flat.

Thanks for attempting to inject us with some logic.

[phrigndumass]

95. That's why I show the sources and offer the spreadsheets for download

Anyone can double-check my work and tell me where it's not true!

btw, the world is flat, as far as I know. :silly:

:hi:

[L0oniX]

96. Kick

[LaStrega]

98. *bump*

:kick: & rec

:woohoo:

[phrigndumass]

99. Thanks LaStrega!

:hi:

[LaStrega]

101. Happy to do it!

:toast: :hi:

[odelisk8]

104. kick

double kick

[LaStrega]

124. I'll raise that kick and kick again! n/t

:kick:

[stevenleser]

106. Incredible work and it shows that for Clinton and her supporters, Denial isnt just a river in Egypt

Its even more funny thinking about that funny fellow with whom you and I were both arguing yesterday about his supposed 'framework'. Rather math challenged that chap. I'm glad I plonked him.

On edit: By the way, that was a K&R too!!!!!!!!!!!!

[phrigndumass]

109. Ahh yes, that "fellow" ...

It was like arguing with an addict ... anything you say just ends up enabling their point of view.

Thanks for the K's and R's!

:hi:

[Zachstar]

107. K&R I hope everyone will send this info to their local news outlets.

It will become even bigger news if Obama continues to wear down on Clinton's lead in PA and she only wins a few delegates.

Also looking forward to Obama reducing Clinton leads in remaining states. All he has to do is reduce Clinton leads in certain states and he goes into the convention extremely strong. With chances of supers overturning the delegate count almost zero as many have stated they will not do that.

It is just so sad that Clinton wants to continue this mess. The claim that this is somehow getting Obama stronger is crap. As Obama will need some off time before facing the republican spin monster. Every day that Clinton chooses to not face the math is another day the McCain will sit back and enjoy himself as the spin machine worked with little opposition.

So fine let the vote be heard for this month. However if Obama starts winning states again will she please exit?

[phrigndumass]

111. I'll give everyone permission to share this thread and the linked spreadsheets

... with any news outlet they want.

That way we can all watch as the Huckabee Index drip, drip, drips down to zero.

:hi:

[Hawkeye-X]

108. Let me get this right - the Huckabee index is the Pelosi number?

Just verifying. I'll keep an eye on your threads... Good work!

[phrigndumass]

110. H# and P# are two different things ...

The Pelosi number is how many superdelegates she has waiting in the wings to endorse, once one of the candidates reaches the halfway point in pledged delegates. That one keeps getting bigger, although the number to reach the halfway point keeps getting smaller.

The Huckabee Index is the number of superdelegates the Obama campaign needs to put the whole contest out of reach for the Clinton campaign (they wouldn't be able to reach 2,024), based on delegates already allocated and polls for the upcoming primaries. That number keeps getting smaller. Once it reaches zero, Senator Clinton is mathematically out of the race (like Huckabee was).

Cool, huh?

:hi:

[Hawkeye-X]

112. Thanks!

And you might want to update your sig! :)

[phrigndumass]

113. LOL ... as soon as I published The Math today, it was outdated ...

Right after posting it, the first poll for Kentucky came out. SurveyUSA has Kentucky as Clinton +29%. Since there was no poll before, my calcs had it at 50/50. The funny thing is that the new poll only bumped up the Huckabee Index +6 to 75.

Then our very own DUer TheVoiceOfReason had his calculations recognized by the press for Mississippi, which gave Senator Obama another pledged delegate (-1 for Clinton).

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5336100

That's why the Huckabee Index in my sig is at 74. If you ever want to know what the Huckabee Index is at any given time, just hunt down where I've posted and my sig will show you the current number!

:D

[Kaleko]

117. What a byzantine way to elect a candidate you have...

Is there a Headache Meter? I've collected input for that one if it exists.

Aliens around the globe also appreciate your work, phrignmathgenius!

[phrigndumass]

145. Headache Meter, LOL ...

It does give some folks a migraine to look at, I admit. Feel free to ask questions!

"Byzantine" is a double-edged sword. :crazy: I'll assume you mean "intricate."

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

114. Good night all ... give it a kick every now and then

:bounce:

[thevoiceofreason]

115. Great analysis, as usual

[phrigndumass]

146. Look at YOU, giving little ol' ME a compliment!

While you're all busy changing the numbers for us!

:hi:

In case anyone wants to know what thevoiceofreason did for us Democrats, take a look at this:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5336100

I'd ask you to marry me, but TheDoorbellRang might call me a two-timer!

[TheDoorbellRang]

165. LOL

No, we'll all just have to go to a commune somewhere. Believe me, I know no one outside of DU who is both a political junkie AND a math junkie. Nowhere amongst friends and family that I can rouse interest with tales of the Huckabee index or the importance of validating a 62.5% popular vote for Obama in Mississippi.

DU and DUers :yourock:

[phrigndumass]

171. That's why I love it here, too!

Cuzza folkz like yoooo and many udders ...

:grouphug:

[TheDoorbellRang]

179. Here's a picture just for you

Ichingcarpenter just posted this on another thread. :rofl:

[phrigndumass]

192. Is that my fanclub? LOL ...

All 2 of them.

:spray:

[RiverStone]

118. I always look forward to you math....

Thanks phrigndumass for your usual excellent perspective.

I believe many on DU see it as THE best mathematical overview!

How much do you charge to do analysis for the GE? :hi:

[phrigndumass]

148. Thanks, I'll definitely be here for the GE

As long as you folks can stand reading what a math nerd like me rambles on about!

:hi:

[Khaotic]

120. Barack + We the People + Math =

Knockout!

[grantcart]

121. You know what I cannot figure out is why sometimes you put this out

and like there are eight people looking at it and sometimes hundreds of people are replying to it lol


great job

[phrigndumass]

149. Strange, isn't it? But it's been eight days since the last Math post

... maybe folkz wuz hungry?

:patriot:

[malik flavors]

122. Here's the latest Kentucky Poll:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=93b1b163-e67d-4e0b-b06f-174b4c7542b5

[phrigndumass]

161. Thanks malik flavors!

That poll came out right after I posted the OP. Instantly my post was outdated! But here's the funny thing, that poll only changed the Huckabee Index by +6. Then today's Pennsylvania poll came out with Clinton at only +5, and the Huckabee Index went back down to 68.

:crazy: Keeps me on my toes!

:hi:

[ekwhite]

123. K&R

Nice post - a little math and polling data, and a lot of good information.

[phrigndumass]

150. Thanks ekwhite!

:hi:

[rAVES]

125. k&r

[phrigndumass]

195. Thanks rAVES

:hi:

[happygoluckytoyou]

127. FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS ANALYSIS-----> 7 THINGS YOU NEED TO UNDERSTAND

Senator Craig put the anal in analysis
Mr Foley as added both the standard and not so standard deviation
FOX news is handling the Normally Distributed Data as an Unbiased Estimator
Mr Bush will discuss Iraqi confidence levels and his own density function
Cheney will participate as "the mean absolute error"
Rice will add the nasty
Rummy will use his knowledge of Al Gebra and their weapons of Math Instruction

ON THE BRIGHT SIDE----
Al Gore will complete the AlGore-ism (which he invented)

YOU GOTTA LOVE THE NUMBERS..... GO'BAMA
----- ON THE MORE HUMAN SIDE OF THINGS.... HOW COULD WE EVER DENY A BLACK MAN WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE VOTERS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BE THE NOMINEE..... COULD YOU THINK OF A FASTER WAY OF LOSING THE 98% OF BLACKS (WHO VOTE DEMOCRAT)..... you don't need a calculator to figure that one out

[phrigndumass]

151. Weapons of Math Instruction ... ROFL!!!

:rofl:

Rummy's knowledge of Al Gebra ... :spray:

AlGore-ism ...:rofl:

Stop, yer killin meee!

:yourock:

[gademocrat7]

128. Thank you

Your efforts in this endeavor are appreciated.

[phrigndumass]

153. thanks gademocrat7!

:hi:

[crankychatter]

130. kicked again

THAT, is a labor of love

[phrigndumass]

154. Thanks crankychatter

:loveya:math:loveya:

[racaulk]

131. K&R

[nxylas]

132. I'm mathematically challenged and don't quite get the Huckabee Index thing

How did you arrive at that number? Does Obama need 88 or 69 super delegates to win? I'm confoozed. Please explain in idiot-proof language.

[npincus]

133. my interpretation:

OP writer says Obama needs a net gain of 69 delegates over Clinton to make it mathematically impossible (as in never, never, ever) for HRC to win the delegate count required for nomination.

Is this correct?

[phrigndumass]

157. Yeppers (based on polls)

... but that's a net gain of 69 superdelegates, not pledged delegates. The remaining pledged delegates from upcoming primaries are estimated based on state polls.


:hi:

[npincus]

196. thank yew kindly for the clarification

and your excellent effort. :hi:

[phrigndumass]

197. You're welcome!

:dunce:

[phrigndumass]

156. 88 to get to nomination, but only 69 to KEEP Clinton from getting to nomination

If 69 superdelegates endorse Senator Obama, then it will be impossible for Senator Clinton to win, or reach 2,024. After that happens, Senator Obama will then need another 19 SDs to reach 2,024 and the official nomination.

(Based on polls for upcoming primaries.)

:hi:

Edited to add smiley. Gotta have the smiley. It's like cowbell.

[nxylas]

159. Ah, I see. I think.

So what would happen if he got between 70 and 87 more SDs?

[phrigndumass]

162. Probably a brokered convention ...

... I would guess, if that's the way it ends up after all the primaries.

Or, Senator Clinton might realize she couldn't win nomination at that point, and concede to Senator Obama.

:hi:

[9119495]

134. Nice work

[phrigndumass]

158. Thanks!

:hi:

[Demeter]

135. There IS a LIGHT at the End of the Tunnel!

Thank gods and goddesses everywhere. This ordeal will end!

[phrigndumass]

160. And it's lit by environmentally-friendly bulbs!

:hi:

[Demeter]

178. Alright!

As long as it isn't an oncoming train driven by the Decider-in-chief.

[redqueen]

136. Wow... great job!

I love math. It's either right or wrong. So comfortingly simple. :)

[phrigndumass]

163. Thanks! Helps you see through the spin cycle, doesn't it?

:dunce:

[SharonRB]

138. Thanks for the great analysis!

[phrigndumass]

164. Thanks Sharon!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

139. PENNSYLVANIA - Rasmussen poll shows Clinton +5

Wow! Senator Obama is making inroads in Pennsylvania. New Rasmussen poll (March 31) has Senator Clinton leading Pennsylvania by only 5%!

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary

:woohoo:

Huckabee Index is back down to 68!

[phrigndumass]

201. Went to Obama +2, now Clinton +3

Changes the Huckabee Index to 74 after including Kentucky and Indiana polls.

FYI ...

[D23MIURG23]

141. Always nice to see facts interjected into this "extremely close" race n/t

[phrigndumass]

166. Thanks D23!

:hi:

[liberaldem4ever]

144. Thanks for the great info-K&R

[phrigndumass]

167. Thanks liberaldem4ever!

GOBAMA!

:hi:

[BlooInBloo]

152. Slate has a handy delegate calculator...

http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

[Buzz Clik]

155. Yes, that is very cool. The little slide bar thingies are excellent.

I suggest those who find the OP a bit numbing slide over to Slate and check it out.

Put in your best guess for the outcomes of the various states. When you're done, see how many super delegates your candidate will need to reach 2025 (assuming FL and MI are out of the equation) and compare that to the current numbers.

[BlooInBloo]

168. Heh. The OP numbed me - an excellent example of correct-but-the-hard-way. :)

[phrigndumass]

169. I just played at your link ...

I gave Senator Clinton 100% of all the remaining pledged delegates. Guess what, she WINS! :crazy:

Thanks Bloo!

:hi:

[Buzz Clik]

172. Try this: Hillary wins all remaining 67/33 except NC.

Even if they split NC 50/50, Obama still has the delegate lead.

[BlooInBloo]

174. Yup. It usually takes ppl about 5 minutes playing with it to see that Clinton has no chance.

[phrigndumass]

175. Amazing

How many did you give her for Guam? Cuz I think it'll be close there! (kidding)

}(

[BlooInBloo]

173. Hahahahaha! So there IS a path to victory for her! Good to know!

[TheDoorbellRang]

170. Slate's delegate counter will need to correct its TX and MS numbers

Currently they're frozen at O = 97/C = 96 in TX, instead of new total 99 vs. 94 in Obama's favor.
And thanks to thevoiceofreason, MS should soon read 20 vs. 13 instead of 19 vs. 14 in Obama's favor.

Odds are even better! :woohoo:

[phrigndumass]

176. Nothing gets past you!

And that's a GOOD thing!

:woohoo:

[Betsy Ross]

177. Thanks for all the work you put into this.

K&R.

[phrigndumass]

181. Thanks Betsy Ross!

:patriot:

[mmonk]

180. I always love your work on this.

[phrigndumass]

182. My work always loves you back!

Thanks mmonk!

:dunce:

[me b zola]

183. K/R

:thumbsup:

[phrigndumass]

187. Thanks me b zola! Do you have any feel for the Oregon race?

:hi:

[parkeradison]

184. Regarding "the math"

Thanks for your thorough report. It's both interesting and revealing.

[phrigndumass]

186. Thanks parkeradison!

"Revealing" is exactly what it is!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

185. The Message, the Multiplicity, the Money, and the Math ...

These are the four M's for running a good campaign.

The Message is what you put "out there" for the voters to see. Staying on top of the Message, and/or controlling the Message, is one way Senator Obama has run successfully. If you falter on your Message, or if you don't put enough thought and belief into it, the voters will see right through you.

Multiplicity is the groundswell of support for the Message. Does the Message take hold? If it has roots, then the grassroots will come to life. The grassroots effort has helped Senator Obama's campaign tremendously this year.

Without Money, your Message won't be heard by as many voters. Money, sadly, is needed to keep the Message out there and to keep a campaign running smoothly. Senator Obama's campaign has succeeded in this area!

Then there's the Math. It's the best gage a campaign has to compare how it's doing against the other candidates. Decisions, both short-term and long-term, are made based on the Math. Sometimes the Math dictates the Message as well.

That's the formula for a successful campaign. Leave one out or do one incorrectly, and your campaign could fall to pieces.

:dunce:

[phrigndumass]

189. I added a new discussion thread for Florida and Michigan compromise ideas

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5342784

[phrigndumass]

193. INDIANA ... New poll - 4/1

From SurveyUSA: Clinton +9

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=35417ff6-4985-47ce-8e1b-3fbe566d108d

Changes the Huckabee Index to 77 (still less than 25%).

:dunce:

[phrigndumass]

199. 77

Current Huckabee Index is 77 as of midnight Tuesday night.

[quantass]

194. 69

[phrigndumass]

198. Hi quantass!

(bumping and saying hi)

:hi: