Salon analysis of Bush's poll numbers shows he is in deep trouble

[Democat]

Last February I ran an experiment with the first 37 months of Bush's approval ratings. I found that 90 percent of the variations in the month-to-month change in approval of Bush could be traced to just five months. These were the two months following 9/11, the two months of the Iraq war and the month that Saddam Hussein was captured. Those months were big positives for Bush. But they were his only positives. Apart from them, Bush's approval showed a remarkably stable declining trend, which averaged 1.6 percentage points every month.

Tick, tock -- no matter what Bush said or did, Americans seemed to come to their senses about him at a steady rate. Except, of course, in the presence of a galvanizing foreign event or crisis.

Now we have four more months of data.



http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2004/05/22/polls/index.html

The writer argues that the prison scandal hasn't had much negative effect on Bush, rather, he has been in a steady decline since 9/11 and the bottom has not be found yet.

[NewHampshireDem]

1. Restores my faith in the American people ...

to see that they have been steadily catching on to the farce in the White House.

I wish there were a little context here, though. I wonder what *'s numbers look like against Clinton, Carter, Reagan. Clearly *'s lows have been lower, but is this slow decline simply a variation on "buyer's remorse" or is * unique in his decline?

[H2O Man]

2. Thank you!

It's nice to see it laid out like this. It exposes the "popularity" of bush for exactly what it is/was ... a manufactored blip on the screen. Turn the chart upside-down, and you have his unpopularity.

[ithacan]

3. that means we'll be in deep trouble

if they really think he's going to tank, this crew will manufacture something, some kind of crisis, some kind of "terrorist attack," you can bet the ranch on it.

They've shown they'll do anything to win, anything to get their way. They've proved this time and time again. They've lied, cheated, resorted to thuggery, in order to get their way.

The polls are good news. But we need to be prepared for the shit these traitors are going to inflict on the US.

[H2O Man]

4. Yes, that's true.

Anytime you are in a conflict/fight, you need to have an idea just how far your opponent/enemy will go..... in this case, we know that they will deny people the right to vote; they will manipulate the courts; they will trample the Constitution; they will resort to high levels of violence; and they will sacrifice the lives of untold numbers of innocent people. That's a dangerous opposition to face ....and it would be foolish to ever let our guard down, or to turn our backs on them.

[jazzlives]

5. "Yes, that's true."

:evilfrown: Devils, that's what they are. There was an old song called "Backstabbers" that clearly depicts the Bush Regime. You are correct in your assessment that we must never underestimate these enemies to democracy. As long as there are those of us who are aware we can try to educate others even though the republicans do not wish to hear anything but Hannity, O'Reilly and Limbaugh. I am glad I am not young any longer but I feel terribly sorry for the present and future generations. "Iraq is Arabic for Vietnam." :-)

[Lefty Pragmatist]

6. What the chart really says

Is that Bush's natural popularity level is right where it should be -- pre-9/11 and now are roughly equal. 9/11 and Iraq were long, extended boosts, but water always seeks it own level.

The other thing that means is that we should not be banking on Bush dropping any further. The "down trending" is just as much an illusion as his once "popularity." He is what he is -- running now a little behind Kerry just as he ran a little behind Gore. It will be the same dogfight.

[hedda_foil]

7. I disagree.

Pre 9/11, it was just becoming obvious (and widely reported) that Bush was an incompetent f*ckup and Cheney's puppet. It was also starting to be reported that Colin Powell was being systematically left out of the loop by Runny and Cheney. The pre 9/11 stats were not the end of a slide, but the beginning. Without the 9/11 intervention, Bush was poised to have dropped to much lower levels in '01 and '02. He still has a long way to go before he bottoms out.

[Jack Rabbit]

8. There is an implicit warning behind Professor Galbraith's analysis

Professor Galbraith cites three spikes that are to Bush's benefit and easily correlates them to specific events. The warning to those of us seeking to bring down the junta is that only one of these events (the September 11 attacks) was entirely beyond Bush's control. The capture of Saddam was partly beyond him. The invasion of Iraq was a wholly manufactured crisis. It had nothing to do with the stated reasons, which were all lies. It was entirely a war of choice, not necessity.

The Bushies are not beyond manufacturing a crisis to their benefit. We must be on guard against this. They have the power to control events and shape them to their liking.

These people have no moral scruples. They will wag the dog.